Christian Vazquez

[Hugh2]

No offense taken by that statement.

 

As far as Pablo being traded, I think that depends on several factors, such as how well he's playing, how well the team is doing, whether we have an acceptable replacement, and so on. In other words, I don't think the team will trade him just to be rid of him if the trade doesn't make sense, regardless of whether the return is decent.

 

The problem is who replaces him? We traded Moncada and there's no SS in the system if you wanted to slide Bogaerts over.

 

I have a lot of faith in Devers but I don't think we can pencil him in until 2019. I think the Sox don't necessarily like it but I think the like it more than a lot of us have because they've comited themselves to Pablo for a good two years.

[Kimmi]

The problem is who replaces him? We traded Moncada and there's no SS in the system if you wanted to slide Bogaerts over.

 

I have a lot of faith in Devers but I don't think we can pencil him in until 2019. I think the Sox don't necessarily like it but I think the like it more than a lot of us have because they've comited themselves to Pablo for a good two years.

 

Agreed. I think that the fans (not all of us) want Pablo gone more than the FO does. I'm not saying that the FO is thrilled with what they've gotten from Pablo so far, but I don't think they're chomping at the bit to get rid of him.

 

Either way, our best scenario would be for Pablo to return in shape and to be an effective 3B for us for the remainder of his contract, or at least until Devers is ready. It sounds like he has been humbled by his experience last year, and it sounds like he is taking his conditioning seriously. Let's hope so.

[a700hitter]

He needs to get in shape and not be the FAT SLOB BELT BREAKING EMBARRASSMENT that he has been over the last two seasons.

[moonslav59]

The problem is who replaces him? We traded Moncada and there's no SS in the system if you wanted to slide Bogaerts over.

 

I have a lot of faith in Devers but I don't think we can pencil him in until 2019. I think the Sox don't necessarily like it but I think the like it more than a lot of us have because they've commited themselves to Pablo for a good two years.

 

They're probably hoping Devers is ready by 2018, but I think you're right. Pablo is about all we have until Devers is ready.

[Hugh2]

They're probably hoping Devers is ready by 2018, but I think you're right. Pablo is about all we have until Devers is ready.

 

That would be nice but I think 2019 is more realistic. Devers has been a one level a year type guy who has historically started slow too. Not that he's not capable of making a jump in development. I think we see him in 2018 but not as an everyday regular.

 

My biggest concern is Devers isn't ready, and Pablo is fat again in 2018

[moonslav59]

That would be nice but I think 2019 is more realistic. Devers has been a one level a year type guy who has historically started slow too. Not that he's not capable of making a jump in development. I think we see him in 2018 but not as an everyday regular.

 

My biggest concern is Devers isn't ready, and Pablo is fat again in 2018

 

A few things:

 

1) I do think there's always a risk for Pablo to revert to his old ways and get fat. He's got enough money now to not have to worry about getting another contract. However, I get a feeling, he has learned his lesson and will stay at a reasonable weight the remainder of his contract.

 

2) He has not always "started slowly". In 2015, his first half OPS was higher than his second (.784 to .762). His second best month was May at .970 in 99 PAs- the most PAs of any month. In 2014, his monthly OPS numbers started with 1.002 (July), then went to .711 in August of his short season of just 2 months. He did struggle to start the 2016 season, but there's not enough evidence to suggest he's a slow starter at each new level... at least not more than the norm.

 

2016:

.504 APR

.652 MAY

.738 JUN

1.078 JUL

.845 AUG

.397 SEP (just 12 PAs)

 

Sox prospects has Devers starting the season in AA. A lot depends on how he does there. If he does well, we might think he'll play for at least part of 2018 in Boston, but I agree, we should not count on it happening.

 

Hopefully, Pablo will be doing well enough, so we won't have to rush Devers. We do have Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez, Dominguez and Marrero as deep mediocre (at best) depth.

[mvp 78]

If Devers can handle AA, I don't think AAA will be all that much more difficult. The prevailing theory is that AAA is just a stop over for guys you can put on an MLB squad once they've proven themselves in AA. The best players tend to skip AA or at least not have too many AB's.

[notin]

If Devers can handle AA, I don't think AAA will be all that much more difficult. The prevailing theory is that AAA is just a stop over for guys you can put on an MLB squad once they've proven themselves in AA. The best players tend to skip AA or at least not have too many AB's.

 

Agree.

 

AS is the most important level. All the lesser players from the multiple levels of A ball have been weeded out. And AAA isn't really so much for development anymore, as the average age is usually over 27 and the teams are loaded eith ex-major leaguers on minor leaguedeals serving as depth.

[moonslav59]

Agree.

 

AS is the most important level. All the lesser players from the multiple levels of A ball have been weeded out. And AAA isn't really so much for development anymore, as the average age is usually over 27 and the teams are loaded eith ex-major leaguers on minor leaguedeals serving as depth.

 

Yes, so if Devers reaches AAA by the end of this year or to start the 2018 season, he could be considered ML ready or very close to it.

[mvp 78]

Devers is clearly the future at 3B. Otherwise, they wouldn't have traded Moncada. He may be closer than we realize.

[moonslav59]

Devers is clearly the future at 3B. Otherwise, they wouldn't have traded Moncada. He may be closer than we realize.

 

He took a huge step forward on defense, so I think you're right.

 

If Pablo sucks again on D and is not very good on O, we may see Devers called up earlier, just for a defensive gain with upside or developing MLB O.

[Hugh2]

He took a huge step forward on defense, so I think you're right.

 

If Pablo sucks again on D and is not very good on O, we may see Devers called up earlier, just for a defensive gain with upside or developing MLB O.

 

I think they traded Moncada because he had a lot more value than Devers and if the Sox have some faith in Pablo to come back strong for a year or two the timeline matches up much better. I do think he's ready sometime in the by mid 2018 to mid 2019 though.

[Hugh2]

A few things:

 

1) I do think there's always a risk for Pablo to revert to his old ways and get fat. He's got enough money now to not have to worry about getting another contract. However, I get a feeling, he has learned his lesson and will stay at a reasonable weight the remainder of his contract.

 

2) He has not always "started slowly". In 2015, his first half OPS was higher than his second (.784 to .762). His second best month was May at .970 in 99 PAs- the most PAs of any month. In 2014, his monthly OPS numbers started with 1.002 (July), then went to .711 in August of his short season of just 2 months. He did struggle to start the 2016 season, but there's not enough evidence to suggest he's a slow starter at each new level... at least not more than the norm.

 

2016:

.504 APR

.652 MAY

.738 JUN

1.078 JUL

.845 AUG

.397 SEP (just 12 PAs)

 

Sox prospects has Devers starting the season in AA. A lot depends on how he does there. If he does well, we might think he'll play for at least part of 2018 in Boston, but I agree, we should not count on it happening.

 

Hopefully, Pablo will be doing well enough, so we won't have to rush Devers. We do have Holt, Rutledge, Hernandez, Dominguez and Marrero as deep mediocre (at best) depth.

 

You're right we don't really have a lot of information to draw any type of conclusions. We only have what they have and it's small enough to just be random but by going by hist first month in full season ball so far he's put up a .504 and a .687 OPS. Could mean nothing, could be getting use to the cold weather state side, could be a slow starter....Even if he is some of the best players are notoriously slow starters.

[moonslav59]

I think they traded Moncada because he had a lot more value than Devers and if the Sox have some faith in Pablo to come back strong for a year or two the timeline matches up much better. I do think he's ready sometime in the by mid 2018 to mid 2019 though.

 

That seems about right. That timetable matches up pretty well with the time Pablo may switch to 1B or DH (or both), assuming he's not gotten bloated up again.

 

DD did get one thing right when it came to choosing which prospects to keep. The three top prospects he kept all play a position that will have the earliest openings due to attrition.

 

1B/DH: 1 year (Moreland 1B & Young DH), 2-3 years (HanRam), 3 years (Pablo)

3B: 3 years (Pablo)

SP: 2 years (Pomeranz), 2 or 6 years (Price), 3 years (Porcello)

 

Best 3 prospects:

 

1B: Travis (or Pablo to 1B or DH-- Longhi or a converted 3B prospect))

3B: Devers (Dalbec-Ockimey-Chatham-Chavis)

SP: Groome (Owens-Johnson)

 

[moonslav59]

I think they traded Moncada because he had a lot more value than Devers and if the Sox have some faith in Pablo to come back strong for a year or two the timeline matches up much better. I do think he's ready sometime in the by mid 2018 to mid 2019 though.

 

Exactly, but the good thing is, he's always heated up at some point at each level.

 

His fielding growth was a big step forward according to scouts.

[notin]

I think they traded Moncada because he had a lot more value than Devers and if the Sox have some faith in Pablo to come back strong for a year or two the timeline matches up much better. I do think he's ready sometime in the by mid 2018 to mid 2019 though.

 

I don't think Pablo was a factor here. The Red Sox traded Moncada because there was absolutely no way to get Sale without giving up at least one of Moncada or Benintendi. If the White Sox wanted Devers at all, and they might have, he clearly wasm't a "must have," as they were willing to take Kopech and/or Basabe instead.

 

In fact, Devers still doesn't impress me much. I just can't get excited over anyone in A ball. Let's se how he does this year in AA. Personally, I have more faith in Longhi this year...

[moonslav59]

I don't think Pablo was a factor here. The Red Sox traded Moncada because there was absolutely no way to get Sale without giving up at least one of Moncada or Benintendi. If the White Sox wanted Devers at all, and they might have, he clearly wasm't a "must have," as they were willing to take Kopech and/or Basabe instead.

 

In fact, Devers still doesn't impress me much. I just can't get excited over anyone in A ball. Let's se how he does this year in AA. Personally, I have more faith in Longhi this year...

 

Longhi's never been above A ball either. Why more confidence in him? He has worse numbers than Devers and has been a year older at each level. Plus, Devers plays 3B- a position of greater need than 1B.

[notin]

Longhi's never been above A ball either. Why more confidence in him? He has worse numbers than Devers and has been a year older at each level. Plus, Devers plays 3B- a position of greater need than 1B.

 

Playing a different position doesn't make him a prospect more likely to break out.

 

And really, with the exception of home runs, could the numbers for Devers and Longhi be any closer? When Longhi does hit his power stroke, he could easily catch or surpass Devers...

[moonslav59]

Playing a different position doesn't make him a prospect more likely to break out.

 

And really, with the exception of home runs, could the numbers for Devers and Longhi be any closer? When Longhi does hit his power stroke, he could easily catch or surpass Devers...

 

The positional difference was in regards to who might be first to make the big club not as a ranking aspect.

 

Longhi's similar numbers, except for HRs, must be viewed in the context of being a year older at each level.

[mvp 78]

Playing a different position doesn't make him a prospect more likely to break out.

 

And really, with the exception of home runs, could the numbers for Devers and Longhi be any closer? When Longhi does hit his power stroke, he could easily catch or surpass Devers...

 

IF Longhi gets a power stroke... And at 1B, Longhi requires a bigger bat. Even then, Devers won the Sox farm defensive player of the year award. I don't think they are really that close.

[moonslav59]

IF Longhi gets a power stroke... And at 1B, Longhi requires a bigger bat. Even then, Devers won the Sox farm defensive player of the year award. I don't think they are really that close.

 

There was talk of moving Devers to 1B before last year. He took a massive step forward improving his defense. Maybe that took away from his work on hitting early on, but this kid just keeps finding a way to bring his offensive numbers up by season's end.

 

I do think hoping for a 2017 appearance is a bit unrealistic, but 2018 is a reasonable goal. It would work out perfectly, if we could move an in shape Pablo to 1B and HanRam to DH full time in 2018.

[mvp 78]

There was talk of moving Devers to 1B before last year. He took a massive step forward improving his defense. Maybe that took away from his work on hitting early on, but this kid just keeps finding a way to bring his offensive numbers up by season's end.

 

I do think hoping for a 2017 appearance is a bit unrealistic, but 2018 is a reasonable goal. It would work out perfectly, if we could move an in shape Pablo to 1B and HanRam to DH full time in 2018.

 

If Devers is in Boston, it's due to both multiple injuries on the MLB roster and Devers turning into 2016 Beni/Moncada. If Devers has a typical year where it takes him a little while to get up to speed, I don't think he'll be anywhere close to an MLB roster this year.

[moonslav59]

If Devers is in Boston, it's due to both multiple injuries on the MLB roster and Devers turning into 2016 Beni/Moncada. If Devers has a typical year where it takes him a little while to get up to speed, I don't think he'll be anywhere close to an MLB roster this year.

 

Even by 2018 as I suggested he might be?

[mvp 78]

Even by 2018 as I suggested he might be?

 

I expect him to be on the roster in 2018. All I've ever said was that if that I'd put him in AAA for a quick promotion to Boston IF there was a need due to injury AND he was exceeding his previous performance (i.e. playing like Beni or Moncada in AA).

[Hugh2]

Devers is in a different class than Longhi, there's a reason he's a top prospect and Longhi,is not. I would however agree that Longhi might be a guy who is getting overlooked and perhaps is a bit under rated.

[mvp 78]

Devers is in a different class than Longhi, there's a reason he's a top prospect and Longhi,is not. I would however agree that Longhi might be a guy who is getting overlooked and perhaps is a bit under rated.

 

I agree. Not sure why Soxprospects has Ockimey ranked higher than Longhi.

[moonslav59]

Devers is in a different class than Longhi, there's a reason he's a top prospect and Longhi,is not. I would however agree that Longhi might be a guy who is getting overlooked and perhaps is a bit under rated.

 

Same age, but there seems to be more raw potential to Ockimey's future. (Perhaps a lower floor as well.)

[harmony]

A Beyond the Box Score columnist looks at the Red Sox catching situation:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/16/14268322/red-sox-catcher-blake-swihart-christian-vazquez-sandy-leon

[Dojji]

If Devers is in Boston, it's due to both multiple injuries on the MLB roster and Devers turning into 2016 Beni/Moncada. If Devers has a typical year where it takes him a little while to get up to speed, I don't think he'll be anywhere close to an MLB roster this year.

 

I actually disagree with this. It's moderately plausible that Devers could position himself for a September callup. He'd have to break camp in Portland and then not struggle in order to put himself in range but if he does break camp with the Seadogs, he needs to earn one promotion and then look good in a Pawsox uniform, and then the team probably gives him a cup of coffee in the big leagues this coming season.

 

Once a player has completed a season at the A+ level, he's in range where a couple breakthroughs could put him on the big league roster in a matter of a few months. Do I think it will happen? Well I bet against both Moncada and Benintendi this year, so I tend to err on the side of caution with my predictions, but it's telling that I got burned doing it twice this season. DD has never been afraid of rapidly promoting a prospect.

Edited January 17, 2017 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

A Beyond the Box Score columnist looks at the Red Sox catching situation:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/16/14268322/red-sox-catcher-blake-swihart-christian-vazquez-sandy-leon

 

I disagree with this point made in the article:

 

Furthermore, any need for Swihart in left field was going to be temporary with Andrew Benintendi expecting to debut later that season.

 

At the time of Swihart's move to LF, there was not an expectation of Beni being promoted later in the year, in fact at the deadline, we tried to get Beltran, so we wouldn't have to call up Beni.

 

The guy ends up picking Swihart as the starting catcher after a good breakdown of each catcher's attributes and weaknesses, but I can't see my self going with the weakest defender of the bunch.