Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[a700hitter]

Price isn't going to the bullpen. We are going to have to live with him in the rotation for better or worse. If Price doesn't improve, DD can still make this team a strong contender by strengthening the bullpen and adding another starter. Whether Price improves or not, he is not a problem that the FO can fix. Only Price can do that. And I expect that he will stop the bleeding tonight and pitch like vintage Price.

 

As for anyone being all right with Price having a lousy first year, how the f*** do you come to that conclusion. We are just observing a pattern of pitchers that come to Boston. Is there something to that pattern who knows. But no one is okay with it and no one is making excuses for him. I do expect him to right his ship, because he is healthy and very talented. That isn't an excuse. Send him hate mail if you want since you are consumed with hating him, but stop cursing in caps.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree. I wouldn't say he's gotten a free pass, but I'm surprised he hasn't gotten more s***. I think people are scared to face the possibility that the signing will be a complete bust.

 

He's catching his share of s*** on here. And sure people are concerned. But a lot of people wrote off Porcello as a bust last year too.

[SoxnCycles]

I think you've now officially caught the Talksox Heavy Sarcasm bug.

 

When in Rome...

[SoxnCycles]

But he sure sucked hard last year didn't he?

 

Yeah, but he seemed to fix whatever his problem was during his DL stay.

[Jack Flap]

No excuses for Price, but I do believe

 

-His results have been more mediocre than "f***ing disaster."

-He has pitched much better this year than his 4.51 ERA would indicate (though I understand the perspective of those who couldn't care less about the peripherals and only worry about the bottom line).

-He was trending upwards before taking a step back in his last couple of starts.

-Not that it excuses Price in any way, but for whatever reason, this seems to be a trend for us...have we had a big-name pitcher come to Boston and immediately live up to expectations since Schilling?

-He has not gotten anything close to a free pass for his performance thus far, either on this board or in Red Sox fandom at large.

 

It's frustrating and more than a bit concerning, but I continue to hope for him to turn the corner and be the pitcher we all know he can be. It's not like we have any choice, right?

[Slasher9]

But he sure sucked hard last year didn't he?

 

not for the $8MM salary we paid him. he was a bargain.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, but he seemed to fix whatever his problem was during his DL stay.

 

Agreed, but by the time he went on the DL it was July 29 (right about now) and he had an ERA of 5.81.

[Slasher9]

Price isn't going to the bullpen. We are going to have to live with him in the rotation for better or worse. If Price doesn't improve, DD can still make this team a strong contender by strengthening the bullpen and adding another starter. Whether Price improves or not, he is not a problem that the FO can fix. Only Price can do that. And I expect that he will stop the bleeding tonight and pitch like vintage Price.

 

As for anyone being all right with Price having a lousy first year, how the f*** do you come to that conclusion. We are just observing a pattern of pitchers that come to Boston. Is there something to that pattern who knows. But no one is okay with it and no one is making excuses for him. I do expect him to right his ship, because he is healthy and very talented. That isn't an excuse. Send him hate mail if you want since you are consumed with hating him, but stop cursing in caps.

 

is cursing in caps against the TOS? or are you just trying to make yourself taller by trying to chop my head off?

[Bellhorn04]

not for the $8MM salary we paid him. he was a bargain.

 

$12.5 million, Slash. And a bargain based on what number?

[Slasher9]

No excuses for Price, but I do believe

 

-His results have been more mediocre than "f***ing disaster."

-He has pitched much better this year than his 4.51 ERA would indicate (though I understand the perspective of those who couldn't care less about the peripherals and only worry about the bottom line).

-He was trending upwards before taking a step back in his last couple of starts.

-Not that it excuses Price in any way, but for whatever reason, this seems to be a trend for us...have we had a big-name pitcher come to Boston and immediately live up to expectations since Schilling?

-He has not gotten anything close to a free pass for his performance thus far, either on this board or in Red Sox fandom at large.

 

It's frustrating and more than a bit concerning, but I continue to hope for him to turn the corner and be the pitcher we all know he can be. It's not like we have any choice, right?

 

im sorry FJ. when you sign an "ace" to the highest pitcher contract at a length of 7 years. mediocre in the first year of said contract = f***ING DISASTER

 

he has had tons of excuses and free passes on this forum. i know. i'm the only one that had been calling him out since April. and people were and have been cursing at me for months. BABIP. BABIP can suck it.

 

what other big name pitcher did we even sign? lackey? that's like 1 big name FA "ace" pitcher signed every 7 years. kind of a sss, no????

[Slasher9]

$12.5 million, Slash. And a bargain based on what number?

 

apologies HFX. i was thinking of his 2014 salary. so not much of a bargain. but still was last year of his previous contract and not close to the $31MM....

but i retract my statement that it was a "bargain".

[SoxnCycles]

Agreed, but by the time he went on the DL it was July 29 (right about now) and he had an ERA of 5.81.

 

Yup, and he was considered a complete bust.

[Jack Flap]

im sorry FJ. when you sign an "ace" to the highest pitcher contract at a length of 7 years. mediocre in the first year of said contract = f***ING DISASTER

 

he has had tons of excuses and free passes on this forum. i know. i'm the only one that had been calling him out since April. and people were and have been cursing at me for months. BABIP. BABIP can suck it.

 

what other big name pitcher did we even sign? lackey? that's like 1 big name FA "ace" pitcher signed every 7 years. kind of a sss, no????

 

I'm including Beckett there as well (did not specify it had to be a FA).

 

Like I said, I get the frustration... You're welcome to keep pouring on the rage if you wish, but I just don't really see what purpose that serves. It was a signing that pretty much everyone was in favor of, because despite the obvious risks, everyone knew a repeat of 2015 was unacceptable and the "ace" alternatives were few and all less attractive. We know Price is better than this...it's up to him now to turn it around, and he knows it. That's really all there is to it.

[a700hitter]

not for the $8MM salary we paid him. he was a bargain.

He was a disaster last year if he was getting paid league minimum. Try to be objective.

[a700hitter]

im sorry FJ. when you sign an "ace" to the highest pitcher contract at a length of 7 years. mediocre in the first year of said contract = f***ING DISASTER

 

he has had tons of excuses and free passes on this forum. i know. i'm the only one that had been calling him out since April. and people were and have been cursing at me for months. BABIP. BABIP can suck it.

 

what other big name pitcher did we even sign? lackey? that's like 1 big name FA "ace" pitcher signed every 7 years. kind of a sss, no????

And your solution to signing Price is to rage until he performs? if anger makes you feel better, go ahead and vent. You seem to have a big problem with the size of his contract. When I watch a game, I don't think of the players finances, because I can't relate to that, and it is more enjoyable for me if I don't think about it.

 

i choose to remain hopeful about Price. I also chose to have some perspective about him. If Porcello had a first season like Price is having, it would have been a career norm and no one would have been upset. This is below Price's career norms, but not enough to jump off a ledge. You are free to jump if you want especially since the salary really has you upset.

[Slasher9]

it's ok bruh. he just needs to "adjust".

i mean, we should have all expected that our "ace" would need to have to "adjust" from being a flamethrower to a guy that has to "learn how to pitch" in the very first season of his 7 year contract. surely DD knew this and expected this. that's why he went out last offseason and signed another "ace" to be an ace this season while Price "adjusts". oh wait...he didn't???!!!

btw - it's not the $31MM we are spending this season. it's the fact that i wanted Cueto who could have been had for $100MM less and doesnt seem to need to "adjust" in the first year of his 6 year contract. Price has no heart. he's not a winner. he chockes again and again and again in the post season. and now he chockes in the regular season too. he's a chocker (the BDC guys will get this). but it's ok, surely DD will just go out and get another "ace". or maybe just a bunch more #4 and #5 pitchers like most on this forum think will suffice.......

Edited July 28, 2016 by Slasher9

[Slasher9]

He was a disaster last year if he was getting paid league minimum. Try to be objective.

 

i already mea culpa'd this like 8 posts ago. gee, while your at it, go back to 2004 after game 3 where i said "looks like we gonna get swept".....

[a700hitter]

i already mea culpa'd this like 8 posts ago. gee, while your at it, go back to 2004 after game 3 where i said "looks like we gonna get swept".....

texting while on the way to the Met game. I might have missed that.

[a700hitter]

or are you just trying to make yourself taller by trying to chop my head off?

There is no need for that.

[SoxnCycles]

I'm including Beckett there as well (did not specify it had to be a FA).

 

Like I said, I get the frustration... You're welcome to keep pouring on the rage if you wish, but I just don't really see what purpose that serves. It was a signing that pretty much everyone was in favor of, because despite the obvious risks, everyone knew a repeat of 2015 was unacceptable and the "ace" alternatives were few and all less attractive. We know Price is better than this...it's up to him now to turn it around, and he knows it. That's really all there is to it.

 

I know Price was better than this. But, until he stops pitching like a college kid with confidence issues, I'm going to have a tough time trusting him going forward.

Fans could afford to be patient with him in May, when Wright was pitching great and we figured DD would pick up some help before the deadline.

DD got some help and Wright can't perform unless he's in Arizona ( yeah, but it's a dry heat!)

 

The Sox have enough talent to compete for the division, if the "ace" could actually pitch like one.

DD gave up a lot of minor league talent to make this team competitive.

It'd be a shame to see it all go for nothing this year, because one player is having trouble living up to all those zero that HE insisted he get on his check.

Time for Price to get his head out of his ass, or the Sox will be lucky to get a wildcard spot.

 

If he throws up all over himself again in Fenway, I hope the fans boo his ass for his entire walk back to the dugout.

Maybe that'll wake him up.

[illinoisredsox]

btw - it's not the $31MM we are spending this season. it's the fact that i wanted Cueto who could have been had for $100MM less and doesnt seem to need to "adjust" in the first year of his 6 year contract.

 

That would be the same Cueto who in a half a year in KC went 4-7 with an ERA of 4.76 for a World Series winning team? The same Cueto who was somewhere between mediocre and terrible in the ALDS and ALCS before pitching a gem against an NL team in the World Series?

 

I didn't follow it all that closely, but did Cueto even talk to AL teams? The only other serious offer I saw was from the Diamondbacks.

[Slasher9]

That would be the same Cueto who in a half a year in KC went 4-7 with an ERA of 4.76 for a World Series winning team? The same Cueto who was somewhere between mediocre and terrible in the ALDS and ALCS before pitching a gem against an NL team in the World Series?

 

I didn't follow it all that closely, but did Cueto even talk to AL teams? The only other serious offer I saw was from the Diamondbacks.

 

yes, that Cueto. he is an Ace.

[moonslav59]

I think you're right that there are a lot of exceptions, and maybe we should take a closer look at a guy like Buehrle and what made him so effective over a long career.

 

A slightly amusing side-note to this - remember the Sox big game plan for pitching going into the 2015 season? We were supposedly stacked with ground-ball pitchers. That was supposed to translate to great numbers, especially with all those low strikes being called!

 

Yeah, I remember. I said it a few times myself.

 

Look, I agree that high K pitchers usually allow less hits than lower K pitchers, but why not judge pitchers on allowing less hits and walks?

 

Just because high Ks usually means less hits, there are enough exceptions to the rule to make me think judging pitchers should be more about their ability to actually get outs and not what high K rates project their number of outs should be or normally are.

[SoxnCycles]

Yeah, I remember. I said it a few times myself.

 

Look, I agree that high K pitchers usually allow less hits than lower K pitchers, but why not judge pitchers on allowing less hits and walks?

 

Just because high Ks usually means less hits, there are enough exceptions to the rule to make me think judging pitchers should be more about their ability to actually get outs and not what high K rates project their number of outs should be or normally are.

 

Yup, Ks are flashy and fun, like HRs.

But, they still count for just one out, the same as a ground out to short.

[Bellhorn04]

yes, that Cueto. he is an Ace.

 

As long as he stays in the National League. :cool:

[Slasher9]

As long as he stays in the National League. :cool:

 

lol. could be. i do wonder if the mid season trade/move had anything to do with the dropoff last season? the differential pre and post trade is stark.

i would have loved to find out how he would have done in Boston.

[illinoisredsox]

lol. could be. i do wonder if the mid season trade/move had anything to do with the dropoff last season? the differential pre and post trade is stark.

i would have loved to find out how he would have done in Boston.

 

In Boston? Where the fans are seemingly ready to critique everything a player does, right down to how he wipes himself after a bowel movement? Okay, I kid, a little

 

My guess how he would have done. Okay. Not as well as he has in SF. Better than he did in KC. Probably not well enough to ward off the critics.

 

I don't think it coincidence that players struggle a bit when they first come to Boston. As has been brought up, Schilling is about the only recent guy who has come in and done the job right away. And at that point, he was a very grizzled vet who had been a main cog in a World Series winner in Arizona and played in Philadelphia for many years (where the fans once booed Santa Claus). Victorino was another guy who came in and excelled right away. He was also another long time vet who had also played in Philly. You want a player to come into Boston and succeed right away? Look for a guy who has played and excelled in a tough media/fan town.

[moonslav59]

Yup, Ks are flashy and fun, like HRs.

But, they still count for just one out, the same as a ground out to short.

 

You said it in a lot less words than I.

 

I feel the same about hitters who strike out a lot.

 

Go ahead and strike out 320 times, and I could care less as long as you have a .350+ OBP or .800+ OPS or 100+ RBIs.

 

I had the same argument about Napoli.

 

Ks are over-rated.

[sk7326]

There's a long list of great pitchers who do not rely on high K rates.

 

While I get the idea that a pitcher's ability to get outs without them hitting it is a huge asset, but sometimes big K pitchers let up big hits as well trying too hard for the K.

 

Over the past 25 years, some of the best pitchers had K rates below 6.7:

Greg Maddux 6.18 (4th best ERA- at 71)

Andy Pettitte 6.65 (34th best ERA- at 86.)

Tom Glavine 5.35 (22nd best ERA- at 82 with a 14% K rate)

Mark Buehrle 5.11 (39th best ERA- at 87 with a 13.6% K%)

Tim Hudson 5.99 (29th best ERA-)

Bartolo Colon 6.69

Jamie Moyer 5.33

 

Jimmy Key had an 82 ERA- after 1992 with just a 15.3% K rate.

Dennis Martinez had a 13.2 K% and an 84 ERA- after 1992.

Ken Hill had a 90 ERA- and 13.7% K%.

 

Certainly high K rate pitchers populate the top pitcher lists, but there are times when high K% pitchers aren't top ERA- pitchers. From 1992-2016, there are 236 pitchers with over 1,000 IP, and this is what I found:

 

Liriano had a 100 ERA- but the 9th best K% at 23%.

O Perez 110 ERA- and 16th best K% at 22.9%

H Nomo 101 ERA- and 17th best K%.

I Kennedy 102 ERA- and 25th best K%.

B Norris 112 ERA- and 33rd best K%.

Dempster 104 ERA- and 45th best K%.

Volquez 109 ERA- and 49th best K%.

 

Ricky Nolasco and Jason Bere both had K rates 4-5 % better than Buehrle and others, but had ERA-'s of 114!

 

Ks do not always equate to greatness, just as low K rates don't always equate to poor pitching.

 

 

Exceptions do not negate trends at all ... and (for instance) Maddux' peak were plenty competitive with the strikeout thing. It is the best of the box score indicators.

[sk7326]

So, what do you do with the "exceptions" to the rule?

 

There are a lot of exceptions, and penalizing them for a lack of Ks is just downright wrong.

 

Thanks for the eye-opening stats. It goes counter to my more individualized research. xFIP is seriously flawed when it ends up placing Price so high in this year's rankings. Price's high K rate this year has been near useless. He has failed miserably to get outs.

 

My point is that WAR relies too heavily on xFIP. Placing Price as the 13th best SP'er this year out of 258 is a joke. Out of 109 SP'ers with 80+ IP this year, Price places 8th in xFIP at 3.24.

 

Here's a look the top 10 SP'er rankings by stat or metric:

 

WAR...... xFIP ........ ERA_

Kershaw .....Kershaw.... Kershaw

Fernandez ..Fernandez..Carrasco

Syndergaard Synderg..Fulmer

Aaron Nola ..J Cueto.... Bumgarner

Stasburg.....Kluber...... Hendricks

Scherzer......Bumgarner..Fernandez

Pineda.........Tanaka....... A Sanchez

Price...........Arrieta........ Syndergaard

deGrom......Quintana..... C Hamels

Kluber....... Strasburg.... J Cueto

 

I still like ERA-, even though I know there are flaws with that as well.

 

 

Lot of strikeout pitichers on that ERA- scale.

 

fWAR uses FIP not xFIP anyway - asserting normalizing homeruns to fly ball rate is a bridge too far. Trends don't negate evaluating each snowflake individually - but the pitchers I want, especially as the season gets late and the teams get good, are dudes who miss bats (while pitching to contact). They create lots of good outcomes.