2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[moonslav59]

if our scouts think that his recent results are a fluke, we will probably not pursue him. It is determinations like this that make quality scouting so important. Stat sheets will not help us in this case.

 

Agreed. And, I trust our scouts more than I trust my opinion that is based on looking at numbers and scouting reports.

 

If they liked Pomeranz even before this year's successes, then my opinion would change on him.

[moonslav59]

Ramirez doesn't have any power left. He's no longer a 5th hitter. The Sox should move him in the offseason.

Shaw can't hit lefties.

Sandoval isn't physically fit enough to play MLB.

Moncada still hasn't played 1 inning of 3b.

Hernandez is not an MLB starter.

Travis will lose this whole season to injury and wasn't tearing it up beforehand.

Holt can't be relied on to be a starter.

Rutledge is a AAAA player who is an ok backup at best.

Marrero is all glove and no bat which isn't a very good fit for 3b at the moment.

 

So, what's the issue with trading redundancy here? It's almost a necessity to trade one or two just to create balance on the 40 man roster next year.

 

I'm fine with trading HanRam while his stock has risen, and I've never been a big Sandy supporter. I've also held deep concerns about Shaw while others here were anointing him our long-term 3B/1B solution, however, I have high hopes for Moncada at 3B, but he may have to start at DH until he learns the position. I also think one or two of the players listed will produce enough to be a plus at their position, even if as a platoon. The hard part is picking the right ones.

[moonslav59]

Maybe I'm just not extremely high on Dubon. A decent hitting, good glove, no power middle INF is good to have, but I'd trade that guy sooner than someone with more upside.

 

I won't argue placing Chavis over Dubon, but I see Moncada and Devers as blocking Chavis at 3B and 1B for many years to come. Bogey has less years of team control at SS, so we may need to keep our longterm SS options open. I'm not high on Marrero anymore. I like Hernandez a lot, but I'd like more options than just him. I realize Dubon's stock could fall, but if he works out well, and Bogey extends, we can easily trade a top SS prospect later rather than sooner.

[mvp 78]

So, what's the issue with trading redundancy here? It's almost a necessity to trade one or two just to create balance on the 40 man roster next year.

 

I'm fine with trading HanRam while his stock has risen, and I've never been a big Sandy supporter. I've also held deep concerns about Shaw while others here were anointing him our long-term 3B/1B solution, however, I have high hopes for Moncada at 3B, but he may have to start at DH until he learns the position. I also think one or two of the players listed will produce enough to be a plus at their position, even if as a platoon. The hard part is picking the right ones.

 

They should trade redundancy, but I think they need to decide long term what to do there. If Moncada is the answer, he needs extensive reps this offseason. Will he be ready for 3b opening day? Maybe not. Midseason call up for 2017?

 

In the meantime, they need to decide if they want to keep Hanley or Shaw. Hanley doesn't have the stick for DH. They will probably need to eat some of his contract and move him to the NL. If they keep Shaw, they'll need a platoon for him (i.e. someone not currently on the roster). Could Sam Travis be a 1b/DH with Travis Shaw?

 

Are they going to bring in an expensive bat like Encarnacion this offseason? I honestly don't think they will. I think they either look to keep Aaron Hill or bring in Brandon Moss rather than grab an Encarnacion.

[Bellhorn04]

Ramirez doesn't have any power left. He's no longer a 5th hitter. The Sox should move him in the offseason.

 

He's been hitting with power lately. Last 14 games - 7 doubles, 3 homers.

[dupree]

I think DD makes a trade with the A's but I think it will be for Sonny Gray. The pieces that Billy will ask for Hill with him considered one of the top Deadline arms will be high and maybe one or two more pieces will land Gray. If DD is going to give up upper class minor league pieces I'd hope he'd just swing for the bigger fish.

 

Gray's numbers look bad but he's pitched well, his offense just hasn't helped him in my opinion. Bring him to Boston and let this offense put up their norms and he will be a splash.

[mvp 78]

He's been hitting with power lately. Last 14 games - 7 doubles, 3 homers.

 

I know. I'm just worried it will not last. If it does, I'll admit my error.

[mvp 78]

I think DD makes a trade with the A's but I think it will be for Sonny Gray. The pieces that Billy will ask for Hill with him considered one of the top Deadline arms will be high and maybe one or two more pieces will land Gray. If DD is going to give up upper class minor league pieces I'd hope he'd just swing for the bigger fish.

 

Gray's numbers look bad but he's pitched well, his offense just hasn't helped him in my opinion. Bring him to Boston and let this offense put up their norms and he will be a splash.

 

He hasn't really pitched that well. He has an FIP of 4.50 and a 0.8 WAR. His fastball is getting wrecked and his offspeed pitches aren't making up for it this time (see 2014). Until he gets his slider back, he's suspect.

 

The haul that it would take to get him here is just not worth it. You'd have to send One of the top 4 guys, plus 2 - 3 other guys at a minimum.

[dupree]

What do you think it would take to get a guy like young ace.... I see Gray and the only one that we could get without the other team asking for One of the Killer Bs. I'd say if the move can be made and it will get us to the playoffs and maybe the world series then you make that move.

[mvp 78]

If Gray was pitching like an ace, I'd want them to grab him ASAP. Unfortunately, he's pitching like a bottom of the rotation starter. Right now, he makes David Price's current season look like 2000 Pedro.

[dupree]

Agreed. That's why I say grab him up now. Bring him to Boston and let this offense throw runs on the board and he will produce wins. Give him an couple games to get his stuff back together an then you have Price and Gray to headline next year with. Erod is coming back Friday and hopefully pitches #5 caliber atleast. Porcello has been quitely good all year. Wright has been the one that has suprised everyone and hopefully can stay strong to get us to the playoffs. And maybe Bucholtz, Owens, Johnson, Barnes, Kelly, or another addition can help out with spot starts and give us a win here and there.

 

Gray is the one with the best stuff at the lowest price now in my opinion. Give up one big piece thats not named Moncada and 2 or 3 more very good players and call it a win.

 

With the way deadline trades go who knows what Billy Bean will want. I have full confidence that DD will make a splash and get big Papi to the playoffs. This is one of the best offenses if not the best in the majors it doesn't need a starter that throws one run ball they just need someone to keep them in games early. I like Gray over Hill and hope they give the pieces to get him.

[moonslav59]

They should trade redundancy, but I think they need to decide long term what to do there. If Moncada is the answer, he needs extensive reps this offseason. Will he be ready for 3b opening day? Maybe not. Midseason call up for 2017?

 

In the meantime, they need to decide if they want to keep Hanley or Shaw. Hanley doesn't have the stick for DH. They will probably need to eat some of his contract and move him to the NL. If they keep Shaw, they'll need a platoon for him (i.e. someone not currently on the roster). Could Sam Travis be a 1b/DH with Travis Shaw?

 

Are they going to bring in an expensive bat like Encarnacion this offseason? I honestly don't think they will. I think they either look to keep Aaron Hill or bring in Brandon Moss rather than grab an Encarnacion.

 

Good points all around. I'm not a big advocate to acquire a big bat this winter. I think we'll need to spend all available resources (money and prospects) on pitching.

 

I'd be okay with a HanRam/Moncada/Pablo/Shaw rotation at DH next year. Yeah, HanRam lacks the power usually associated with the DH position, but right now, HanRam's .801 OPS places him about in the middle of DHs. As far as team DH numbers, .801 would place 7th out of 16 AL teams.

 

Now, who knows what HanRam's OPS will be next year. I never wanted HanRam to start with and last winter I caught flack for suggesting I'd trade HanRam in a second, even if he had a .900 season in 2016. I still feel that way. I thing there is a significant chance he repeats a season like 2015 in 2017.

 

I'm super high on Moncada- not to the extent of thinking he can come close to replacing Papi all by himself, but between him and Benintendi and the expected age-related improvements of other players, I think our offense will remain top 3 or 4 in MLB. If we don't replace Papi with a vet, we will have a very young starting line-up. Only Pedey, Young and HanRam are on the wrong side of prime.

 

It may be wishful thinking, but I really think we'll be fine on offense and defense next year due to the infusion of youth from Moncada and Beni. Think about this core:

 

Age

21 Moncada

22 Benintendi

23 Betts

23 Bogey

26 Bradley

 

plus...

18 Espinoza

19 Devers

19 Basabe

20 Kopech

20 Chavis

22 Travis

23 ERod

24 Swihart

25 Vazquez

26 Barnes

26 Smith

26 Shaw

27 Porcello

27 Hembree

27 Leon

 

 

[moonslav59]

He hasn't really pitched that well. He has an FIP of 4.50 and a 0.8 WAR. His fastball is getting wrecked and his offspeed pitches aren't making up for it this time (see 2014). Until he gets his slider back, he's suspect.

 

The haul that it would take to get him here is just not worth it. You'd have to send One of the top 4 guys, plus 2 - 3 other guys at a minimum.

 

I'm sure the thought process would be that the expectation is would continue pitching like his larger sample size pre-2016 than his most recent smaller sample size.

 

I'm not sure I want Gray as much as I did earlier.

[Jack Flap]

Oakland has Gray through 2019...no reason for them to sell low on him now. Unless we can pull off some bizarre Donaldson-type deal where no one can believe Beane let him go for so little, I'm not really interested either at this point.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. That's why I say grab him up now. Bring him to Boston and let this offense throw runs on the board and he will produce wins. Give him an couple games to get his stuff back together an then you have Price and Gray to headline next year with. Erod is coming back Friday and hopefully pitches #5 caliber atleast. Porcello has been quitely good all year. Wright has been the one that has suprised everyone and hopefully can stay strong to get us to the playoffs. And maybe Bucholtz, Owens, Johnson, Barnes, Kelly, or another addition can help out with spot starts and give us a win here and there.

 

Gray is the one with the best stuff at the lowest price now in my opinion. Give up one big piece thats not named Moncada and 2 or 3 more very good players and call it a win.

 

With the way deadline trades go who knows what Billy Bean will want. I have full confidence that DD will make a splash and get big Papi to the playoffs. This is one of the best offenses if not the best in the majors it doesn't need a starter that throws one run ball they just need someone to keep them in games early. I like Gray over Hill and hope they give the pieces to get him.

 

I'm not sure an injury-related poor 2016 performance has affected the stock price all that much. The A's will still demand a king's ransom in return.

[moonslav59]

Oakland has Gray through 2019...no reason for them to sell low on him now. Unless we can pull off some bizarre Donaldson-type deal where no one can believe Beane let him go for so little, I'm not really interested either at this point.

 

I think Beane has a different view on the value of the people he gets back in trades. He doesn't think he's selling low, but often the experts bash his trades, and hindsight has not shown him to be a great trader.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Beane has a different view on the value of the people he gets back in trades. He doesn't think he's selling low, but often the experts bash his trades, and hindsight has not shown him to be a great trader.

 

He made a historically bad trade for Donaldson.

[Emp9]

I'm not sure an injury-related poor 2016 performance has affected the stock price all that much. The A's will still demand a king's ransom in return.

 

I wish that worked for us.

[mvp 78]

18 Espinoza

19 Devers

19 Basabe

20 Kopech

20 Chavis

 

For me, I try not to get excited about the really really young guys as they tend to flame out more often than the ones already in Portland. Kopech may throw hard, but a lot of scouts see him as a reliever.

[jacksonianmarch]

He made a historically bad trade for Donaldson.

 

They got Graveman, Barreto and Lawrie for him. They dealt Lawrie for JB Wendelken and Zach Erwin.

 

Graveman is 25 and is already at a near 2WAR this season. Sinker slider guy slots well into the middle of a rotation

Barreto is the #35 prospect in all of baseball and the #1 prospect in the A's organization right now. He's a recently turned 20 yr old holding his own as a 2b in AA while stealing 22 bags in half a season

Lawrie gave them 2WAR last yr before being dealt

Erwin is a big lefty with a big arm who is sucking ass right now in High A

Wendelken is a big armed righty with huge K numbers in AAA who made his debut this yr

 

In short, it isn't historically bad. He dealt a guy he thought was a team cancer for pieces that work. Right now, he has a stalwart #3-4 in the rotation, a top prospect in Barreto at AA and a hard throwing pen arm in AAA ready for the bigs from the deal. It follows the Beane trade mantra. Everyone pans him, but he shoots for the moon with one guy then asks for dependable parts who translate well to the bigs

[jacksonianmarch]

If they dealt Sonny Gray to the sox, I could see them asking for one top prospect and a few parts from your big league team. I could see Moncada, Barnes, Owens and Brentz. Everyone would basically pan the deal since nobody thinks anything of the last 3 guys, but all three would end up on the big league team somehow contributing and Moncada would hit his ceiling. Everyone shits on Beane, but he is right a lot more than you care to admit

[Bellhorn04]

They got Graveman, Barreto and Lawrie for him. They dealt Lawrie for JB Wendelken and Zach Erwin.

 

Graveman is 25 and is already at a near 2WAR this season. Sinker slider guy slots well into the middle of a rotation

Barreto is the #35 prospect in all of baseball and the #1 prospect in the A's organization right now. He's a recently turned 20 yr old holding his own as a 2b in AA while stealing 22 bags in half a season

Lawrie gave them 2WAR last yr before being dealt

Erwin is a big lefty with a big arm who is sucking ass right now in High A

Wendelken is a big armed righty with huge K numbers in AAA who made his debut this yr

 

In short, it isn't historically bad. He dealt a guy he thought was a team cancer for pieces that work. Right now, he has a stalwart #3-4 in the rotation, a top prospect in Barreto at AA and a hard throwing pen arm in AAA ready for the bigs from the deal. It follows the Beane trade mantra. Everyone pans him, but he shoots for the moon with one guy then asks for dependable parts who translate well to the bigs

 

Good points, although the records of the A's and the Jays the last 2 years suggest Donaldson was anything but a team cancer.

[mvp 78]

If they dealt Sonny Gray to the sox, I could see them asking for one top prospect and a few parts from your big league team. I could see Moncada, Barnes, Owens and Brentz. Everyone would basically pan the deal since nobody thinks anything of the last 3 guys, but all three would end up on the big league team somehow contributing and Moncada would hit his ceiling. Everyone shits on Beane, but he is right a lot more than you care to admit

 

Not with his trades he isn't... He's made some really s***** deals. More often than not, his trades are head scratchers.

[Eddy Ballgame]

So, what's the issue with trading redundancy here? It's almost a necessity to trade one or two just to create balance on the 40 man roster next year.

 

I'm fine with trading HanRam while his stock has risen, and I've never been a big Sandy supporter. I've also held deep concerns about Shaw while others here were anointing him our long-term 3B/1B solution, however, I have high hopes for Moncada at 3B, but he may have to start at DH until he learns the position. I also think one or two of the players listed will produce enough to be a plus at their position, even if as a platoon. The hard part is picking the right ones.

 

You won't see Moncada doing any DHing. His most common comps for athleticism are Bo Jackson/Rickey Henderson/Mike Trout. The comps are a stretch, but he's going to be a position player when he gets here. He'll likely play 3rd and maybe some left in winterball.

 

Even if the Red Sox don't go with a traditional DH next year, they aren't going to rotate a bunch of guys in that spot. At worst, it will be a platoon with a guy like Pedroia DHing once a month or so, but you'll never see a kid like Moncada doing any DHing at that age.

[moonslav59]

You won't see Moncada doing any DHing. His most common comps for athleticism are Bo Jackson/Rickey Henderson/Mike Trout. The comps are a stretch, but he's going to be a position player when he gets here. He'll likely play 3rd and maybe some left in winterball.

 

Even if the Red Sox don't go with a traditional DH next year, they aren't going to rotate a bunch of guys in that spot. At worst, it will be a platoon with a guy like Pedroia DHing once a month or so, but you'll never see a kid like Moncada doing any DHing at that age.

 

I've been advocating giving Moncada some reps in practice at 3B or LF sooner rather than later. From what I hear, he might be "athletic" but he's not even a plus fielder at 2B after years of playing there.

 

I doubt he turns into a better defensive 3Bman than Shaw, Pablo, Hernandez and others after one winter learning that new position.

 

I carefully stated that I think we may see Moncada at DH quite a bit, UNTIL he learns a new position well enough to be a plus (or better than who we have at DH in his stead).

 

It's not my ideal landing spot for him, but the Sox seem to be slow moving Moncada to 3B or LF, so I think DH might be is starting point in the bigs.

[moonslav59]

Not with his trades he isn't... He's made some really s***** deals. More often than not, his trades are head scratchers.

 

He's dumped a lot of players right before they s*** the bed. I like his philosophy of developing closers and selling high.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I've been advocating giving Moncada some reps in practice at 3B or LF sooner rather than later. From what I hear, he might be "athletic" but he's not even a plus fielder at 2B after years of playing there.

 

I doubt he turns into a better defensive 3Bman than Shaw, Pablo, Hernandez and others after one winter learning that new position.

 

I carefully stated that I think we may see Moncada at DH quite a bit, UNTIL he learns a new position well enough to be a plus (or better than who we have at DH in his stead).

 

It's not my ideal landing spot for him, but the Sox seem to be slow moving Moncada to 3B or LF, so I think DH might be is starting point in the bigs.

 

I see your point, but trust me, they aren't DHing Moncada at this stage of his career. The sky's the limit offensively, so they aren't going to risk screwing him up mentally by having him learn a new position. The reason that they haven't shuffled him around as you suggest, is because they want him to be comfortable as his offense develops. They'll likely have him take some reps at 3rd in winter ball and next spring. Why does he need to be better defensively than the guys that you mentioned?

 

Besides, the Sox aren't going to rotate a bunch of guys at DH, as I mentioned earlier & teams don't take players with his athletic ability and DH them at 21. It's unheard of

Edited July 14, 2016 by Eddy Ballgame

[Hugh2]

Sox get Drew Pomeranz. A guy I was interested the past few weeks as a better option than dealing with Atlanta.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/padres-trade-drew-pomeranz-red-sox.html

[Hugh2]

I wonder who headlined the deal? My guess is it's someone in the Devers, Kopech, Sam Travis range. I'm hoping it's not Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW, one of SI's Jay Jaffe's 'bold predictions for second half' is: 'Red Sox will shore up rotation with Pomeranz and win the AL East going away'.

 

Score one for Jaffe. Hope he's right about the second part too.