2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Perhaps in theory, but someone like Betts (one of the game's rising young stars) is not easily replaced, either...nor are we exactly awash in quality outfielders right now.

 

I'm also not a fan of the "Create one hole to fill another" strategy. If Fernandez became available, and if the Red Sox wanted to go down that road, I would think that some combination of several (maybe all) of our top 4 prospects, Swihart, Kopech, etc. should get us in the discussion without having to include Betts, Bogaerts, or anyone else who's indispensable to the major league roster.

 

I was not saying that Betts specifically is easy to replace. But finding a capable RF is easier than finding an ace.

 

As far as not including any of the "b's", that depends on what other teams are offering and how desperate the sawx are at that point.

[User Name]

There seem to be a lot of guys on the 'no thanks' list.

 

Where is the 'yes please' list?

 

Syndergaard, Kluber, Salazar, Smyly, Gray, Bumgarner, Archer, Paxton, Stroman, Kershaw, Urias, Giolito, et al. All come with inherent risk, but youth/cleaner mechanics than some of the guys I always say "Oh God no" to.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Syndergaard, Kluber, Salazar, Smyly, Gray, Bumgarner, Archer, Paxton, Stroman, Kershaw, Urias, Giolito, et al. All come with inherent risk, but youth/cleaner mechanics than some of the guys I always say "Oh God no" to.

 

But any of them are just as likely to have arm trouble down the road.

[Spudboy]

There seem to be a lot of guys on the 'no thanks' list.

 

Where is the 'yes please' list?

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True. But I think it's important to try to identify the best possible purchase since the price will be high.

 

I am of the opinion that the Sox will target a mid rotation guy this summer. I don't think the Sox want to spend big with prospects. I hope not!

 

I say go after the big guns in FA this winter. Not sure who they will be, of course.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

.

 

True. But I think it's important to try to identify the best possible purchase since the price will be high.

 

I am of the opinion that the Sox will target a mid rotation guy this summer. I don't think the Sox want to spend big with prospects. I hope not!

 

I say go after the big guns in FA this winter. Not sure who they will be, of course.

 

This year's SP FA list is pretty underwhelming.

[User Name]

But any of them are just as likely to have arm trouble down the road.

 

That could not be farther from the truth. Guys with inverted W's and L arm actions, as well as guys who throw a very high percentage of breaking pitches are significantly more at risk for elbow/shoulder troubles than guys with cleaner mechanics and are not as over-reliant on breaking pitches, like Kluber. Any pitcher is liable to break down at any moment, but the risk percentage is significantly higher for some guys than others. Chris O'Leary's work is a good barometer of the importance on mechanics as a barometer for probability of injury.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

That could not be farther from the truth. Guys with inverted W's and L arm actions, as well as guys who throw a very high percentage of breaking pitches are significantly more at risk for elbow/shoulder troubles than guys with cleaner mechanics and are not as over-reliant on breaking pitches, like Kluber. Any pitcher is liable to break down at any moment, but the risk percentage is significantly higher for some guys than others. Chris O'Leary's work is a good barometer of the importance on mechanics as a barometer for probability of injury.

 

But he already had TJ surgery. While it happens occasionally, most pitchers never need it a second time.

[mvp 78]

But he already had TJ surgery. While it happens occasionally, most pitchers never need it a second time.

 

That doesn't mean he now has an arm that can never be injured. TJS isn't the video game level up that some people on here make it out to be.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

That doesn't mean he now has an arm that can never be injured. TJS isn't the video game level up that some people on here make it out to be.

 

Understood, I'm just saying the chances of him needing another TJS vs a pitcher that hasn't is less.

[User Name]

That is also false, as it depends on the pitcher and, greatly, his mechanics and repertoire.

[mvp 78]

Understood, I'm just saying the chances of him needing another TJS vs a pitcher that hasn't is less.

 

A subsequent arm injury is common among pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery. More than half of Major League pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery from 1999 to 2011 went on the Disabled List with an arm injury after returning from surgery. Another recent study from the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) concluded that 19% of Tommy John patients will have a subsequent elbow surgery and 25% will have shoulder surgery.

 

http://m.mlb.com/pitchsmart/tommy-john-faq/

 

TJS doesn't reduce the risk for future injury. Sure, they may not get TJS again (though some do), but they are still likely to have future arm/shoulder problems.

[moonslav59]

Syndergaard, Kluber, Salazar, Smyly, Gray, Bumgarner, Archer, Paxton, Stroman, Kershaw, Urias, Giolito, et al. All come with inherent risk, but youth/cleaner mechanics than some of the guys I always say "Oh God no" to.

 

Did you intentionally leave our Carrasco and Quintana, or were they part of the "et al"?

 

Just curious.

[User Name]

Did you intentionally leave our Carrasco and Quintana, or were they part of the "et al"?

 

Just curious.

 

Intentionally left out. Specially Carrasco, whose mechanics I thoroughly dislike, although I love the stuff/poise.

[moonslav59]

Who's on the "yes list" but is also realistically considered available?

 

For example, even if the White Sox are 12 games out at the deadline, would they consider trading Sale or Quintana?

 

Guys like Kershaw are pretty much untouchable.

[User Name]

Who's on the "yes list" but is also realistically considered available?

 

For example, even if the White Sox are 12 games out at the deadline, would they consider trading Sale or Quintana?

 

Guys like Kershaw are pretty much untouchable.

 

Probably Gray, Smyly, Paxton, Archer. The Rays are known to deal from their pitching depth (and they're deep in SP when a couple other surgery guys come back).

[Slasher9]

Probably Gray, Smyly, Paxton, Archer. The Rays are known to deal from their pitching depth (and they're deep in SP when a couple other surgery guys come back).

 

no thanks. we already have a boatload of 4-10 / 4.70 ERA / 1.43 WHIP pitchers on our team. no need to spend valuable prospects on obtaining another one....

[iortiz]

IMO young controlled arms who belong to contender teams like Carrasco are pipe dreams. On the other hand, if you want a guy like Teheran, Gray, etc. you will likely have to give up a big haul of prospects. Also, aces like Sale are franchise players. They are untouchables. The WS will lock out this guy -- They won't s*** the bed as we did with Lester.

 

IMO 2nd-tier arms who can pitch at times like No. 1s and have large contracts or will become FA soon could be more realistic options coming from L-teams.

[moonslav59]

Probably Gray, Smyly, Paxton, Archer. The Rays are known to deal from their pitching depth (and they're deep in SP when a couple other surgery guys come back).

 

Pretty amazing that Archer, Smyly and Moore all have ERAs over 4.70 this year.Archer ans Smyly still have high K rates (over 10/9IP), and I think they both could easily improve over the second half. Smyly's still got two more arb years left, so he's appealing. Archer would cost much more in prospects due to him having 5 more years of team control at a great rate. Archer's luxury tax hit would only be $4.25M until 2020 when his $9M option is available. Even his $11M 2021 option looks to be a steal. The one good thing about the Rays, is that they may value long away prospects more than "win now" teams. That means guys like Devers and Espinoza could have more appeal to them than other teams looking at 2017. Maybe we could offer Swihart (as a PTBNL until he's off the DL), Devers, Espinoza, Travis, Kopech, T Ball and Owens or Johnson for both Archer & Smyly. If they want Holt or Herandez, include them as well. That's probably wishful thinking, but we can probably get one from the Rays.

 

I like Sonny Gray, but hesitate to pull the trigger on him. Even if his injury is not a long term concern, pitchers from the A's rarely continue their productivity after being traded.

 

I've never been that high on Paxton, and the M's may not be sellers this July. His WHIP has been around 1.500 since the start of 2015, although the sample size is rather small (just 19 starts). His 3 arb years remaing is a plus.

 

What are your thoughts on Eickoff and Nola from the Phillies? Also, Vincent Velasquez?

[moonslav59]

no thanks. we already have a boatload of 4-10 / 4.70 ERA / 1.43 WHIP pitchers on our team. no need to spend valuable prospects on obtaining another one....

 

You can't judge a pitcher by just a third of a season.

[mvp 78]

I just want Dave Mengden.

 

Moncada straight up. The 'stache is worth it...

[User Name]

Pretty amazing that Archer, Smyly and Moore all have ERAs over 4.70 this year.Archer ans Smyly still have high K rates (over 10/9IP), and I think they both could easily improve over the second half. Smyly's still got two more arb years left, so he's appealing. Archer would cost much more in prospects due to him having 5 more years of team control at a great rate. Archer's luxury tax hit would only be $4.25M until 2020 when his $9M option is available. Even his $11M 2021 option looks to be a steal. The one good thing about the Rays, is that they may value long away prospects more than "win now" teams. That means guys like Devers and Espinoza could have more appeal to them than other teams looking at 2017. Maybe we could offer Swihart (as a PTBNL until he's off the DL), Devers, Espinoza, Travis, Kopech, T Ball and Owens or Johnson for both Archer & Smyly. If they want Holt or Herandez, include them as well. That's probably wishful thinking, but we can probably get one from the Rays.

 

I like Sonny Gray, but hesitate to pull the trigger on him. Even if his injury is not a long term concern, pitchers from the A's rarely continue their productivity after being traded.

 

I've never been that high on Paxton, and the M's may not be sellers this July. His WHIP has been around 1.500 since the start of 2015, although the sample size is rather small (just 19 starts). His 3 arb years remaing is a plus.

 

What are your thoughts on Eickoff and Nola from the Phillies? Also, Vincent Velasquez?

 

Velasquez is a mechanical mess. Nola is and will be pretty good IMO. Don't know a lot about Eickoff.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

A subsequent arm injury is common among pitchers who have had Tommy John surgery. More than half of Major League pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery from 1999 to 2011 went on the Disabled List with an arm injury after returning from surgery. Another recent study from the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) concluded that 19% of Tommy John patients will have a subsequent elbow surgery and 25% will have shoulder surgery.

 

http://m.mlb.com/pitchsmart/tommy-john-faq/

 

TJS doesn't reduce the risk for future injury. Sure, they may not get TJS again (though some do), but they are still likely to have future arm/shoulder problems.

 

Like I said earlier, pretty much any pitcher is susceptible to arm/shoulder injuries. The human body is just not designed to throw a ball that hard, that often. Sure, good mechanics can help, but there's plenty of guys with good mechanics who have had problems at one point or another.

[User Name]

It's not that good mechanics "can help". It's that they are usually the deciding factor between a long, productive career and Mark Prior/Anthony Reyes.

[illinoisredsox]

Probably Gray, Smyly, Paxton, Archer. The Rays are known to deal from their pitching depth (and they're deep in SP when a couple other surgery guys come back).

 

Except the Rays GM pretty much has a policy of not dealing with AL East teams:

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/06/silverman_don_t_expect_rays_to_deal_with_red_sox

 

The one and only trade between the Red Sox and the Rays was in 1999 (details in the article). Two trades with the O's, in 2009 and 1999. None with the Yankees. 3 with the Jays, 2004, 2003 and 2000. So summing up, 1 trade involving players for players in the last decade and that was in 2009.

 

There have been three one-way purchasing of contracts, 1 with the O's and 2 with the Yanks. Only one of those has happened in the 2010s.

 

What info does Baseball Reference NOT have?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/trade-partners.cgi

Edited June 28, 2016 by illinoisredsox

[Slasher9]

You can't judge a pitcher by just a third of a season.

 

i can only judge by what i see him doing this year if i am going to trade a moncada or similar for him. and really he has only had a couple years in the league / 1 year of 200+ IP. 2 good years and what looks to be 1 bad year. that's a 66% success rate. i dont know that i trade high level anything for 66%.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

It's not that good mechanics "can help". It's that they are usually the deciding factor between a long, productive career and Mark Prior/Anthony Reyes.

 

Geez, nobody is arguing that they don't contribute, but they are one of a few factors.

[User Name]

Geez, nobody is arguing that they don't contribute, but they are one of a few factors.

 

I'm arguing that they're the main factor. Almost every elbow/shoulder catastrophic injury can be traced back to a mechanical problem.

[User Name]

Except the Rays GM pretty much has a policy of not dealing with AL East teams:

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/06/silverman_don_t_expect_rays_to_deal_with_red_sox

 

The one and only trade between the Red Sox and the Rays was in 1999 (details in the article). Two trades with the O's, in 2009 and 1999. None with the Yankees. 3 with the Jays, 2004, 2003 and 2000. So summing up, 1 trade involving players for players in the last decade and that was in 2009.

 

There have been three one-way purchasing of contracts, 1 with the O's and 2 with the Yanks. Only one of those has happened in the 2010s.

 

What info does Baseball Reference NOT have?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/trade-partners.cgi

 

Don't buy it. I bet they'd trade with the Sox if they overpaid. Therein lies the issue, however.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I remember reading that Andrew Friedman was the Rays GM who pretty much refused to trade within the division. He's with the Dodgers now, but I seriously doubt we'll see a significant trade involving top prospects and top of the rotation starters within the AL East.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

I'm arguing that they're the main factor. Almost every elbow/shoulder catastrophic injury can be traced back to a mechanical problem.

 

Workload from an early age has plenty to do with it.

 

Here's a good read .......

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/tommy-john-epidemic-elbow-surgery-glenn-fleisig-yu-darvish/