2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[Bellhorn04]

Can't let Pedroia go! He's our best pitching coach! Love watching him grind through another season with a dirty uniform!

 

Yeah, who needs a guy with a 2.6 bWAR in 73 games making 13 million.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, who needs a guy with a 2.6 bWAR in 73 games making 13 million.

 

I recently read a post that stated Buchholz would wind up earning his $13M this year per Fangraphs projections. Blech.

[SoxnCycles]

I recently read a post that stated Buchholz would wind up earning his $13M this year per Fangraphs projections. Blech.

 

Shows you how much pitchers are getting paid these days, but not much else.

[mvp 78]

Shows you how much pitchers are getting paid these days, but not much else.

 

I pretty much agree. Worrying about someone living up to their contract is a fruitless endeavor. It's about the product on the field, not the payroll.

[Bellhorn04]

I recently read a post that stated Buchholz would wind up earning his $13M this year per Fangraphs projections. Blech.

 

That was Slasher, who said 'Clays fangraphs value will be north of 13mm by the time the season is done', which was wishful thinking, and in any event has nothing to do with Pedroia.

 

[moonslav59]

I pretty much agree. Worrying about someone living up to their contract is a fruitless endeavor. It's about the product on the field, not the payroll.

 

Teams are interested in Liriano, who has pretty bad numbers as well.

 

Go figure.

[User Name]

Liriano has a history of sustained success the prior three years, and thus teams think they may be able to fix him.

[moonslav59]

Liriano has a history of sustained success the prior three years, and thus teams think they may be able to fix him.

 

Yes, he's been very good for 3 years in a row while starting 26-31 games over that stretch. He was over 5.00 in 3 of the previous 4 seasons (2009-2012), but that shouldn't really be held against him.

 

His numbers this year are scary bad. H has a 1.634 WHIP fueled in part by his 5.6 BB/9 rate..

He has the 15th worst xFIP- at 113 (out of 94 qualifiers).

The 4 worst ERA- SP'ers right now are:

153 Shields

138 Peavy

131 Santiago

131 Liriano

 

His .304 BABIp might mean he's had some bad luck, but it can't all be related to that.

 

Yes, he probably can be "fixed", and I'd much rather take my chances on Liriano than Buch, but I pointed him out to highlight how desperate teams are to get SP'ers.

 

To compare Liriano and Buch using the selected last 3 1/2 season sample size (which does not inlcude Lirianos' bad 2009-2012 seasons),, here are the numbers:

 

100 SP'ers with 400+ IP from 2013 to present.

 

xFIP-

89 Liriano (tied for 22nd with Cueto and Hamels and just ahead of Richards, Gray, Porcello, Quintana and Lackey)

99 Buchholz (41st out of 100 just ahead of Ventura, Leake, Fister, Wacha & Colon)

 

ERA-

96 Liriano (43rd just ahead of Gallardo, Leake, Gio G & Latos)

99 Buchholz (59th just ahead of Odorizzi & M Gonzalez)

 

WHIP

1.27 Buchholz (55th)

1.29 Liriano (59th)

 

WAR

8.4 Liriano (37th)

7.0 Buchholz (52nd)

 

Perhaps most importantly:

GS/IP

100/588 Liriano

74/459 Buchholz

 

)

[Hugh2]

If I was a G.M. I'd consider Liriano a much better investment than Clay. I wouldn't even think about it, I'd take him over Buchholz in a heartbeat.

[Slasher9]

That was Slasher, who said 'Clays fangraphs value will be north of 13mm by the time the season is done', which was wishful thinking, and in any event has nothing to do with Pedroia.

 

 

this.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

betts for Fernandez?

 

http://beantownbeattomdarcy.sportsblog.com/posts/20561879/red-sox-rumors--would-you-trade-mookie-betts-for-jose-fernandez-.html

[Hugh2]

I know it may be tempting but it might not be optimal to go out and get that one piece this trade deadline. You will certainly always overpay if you're a buyer, therefore it is only worth it to really go for it if you already have a very good chance of doing something in the playoffs. While this team is much better than last year, with a very exciting core and a dynamic offense it is still fundamentally flawed.

 

It is plausibly we could move a ton of pieces for someone that will help us now, get hot at the right time, and get lucky in October. And I suppose there is not much wrong with that if you're 90 years old and want to see another championship now, but it might make more sense to wait until the off season and evaluate the trade market then.

[mvp 78]

betts for Fernandez?

 

http://beantownbeattomdarcy.sportsblog.com/posts/20561879/red-sox-rumors--would-you-trade-mookie-betts-for-jose-fernandez-.html

 

You would have no one to play RF. Betts and Buchholz (Sox pay entire salary) for Fernandez and Yelich?

[SoxnCycles]

I know it may be tempting but it might not be optimal to go out and get that one piece this trade deadline. You will certainly always overpay if you're a buyer, therefore it is only worth it to really go for it if you already have a very good chance of doing something in the playoffs. While this team is much better than last year, with a very exciting core and a dynamic offense it is still fundamentally flawed.

 

It is plausibly we could move a ton of pieces for someone that will help us now, get hot at the right time, and get lucky in October. And I suppose there is not much wrong with that if you're 90 years old and want to see another championship now, but it might make more sense to wait until the off season and evaluate the trade market then.

 

 

Yup, there's no point in overpaying for pitching help, if every one in the current rotation is going to spot teams a 3 run lead at the start of every game.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

You would have no one to play RF. Betts and Buchholz (Sox pay entire salary) for Fernandez and Yelich?

 

Much easier to find a RF'er than a pitcher of his caliber IMO

[S5Dewey]

Much easier to find a RF'er than a pitcher of his caliber IMO

 

Bad idea. We're struggling to find an adequate LF as it is. Let's not solve one problem by creating another, and give up our leadoff hitter in the process.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Bad idea. We're struggling to find an adequate LF as it is. Let's not solve one problem by creating another, and give up our leadoff hitter in the process.

 

But the main problem for the sawx is not creating runs, it's preventing runs.

 

I'll stand by my statement that it's easier to find a RF'er than it is to find an ace like Fernandez.

[S5Dewey]

But the main problem for the sawx is not creating runs, it's preventing runs.

 

I'll stand by my statement that it's easier to find a RF'er than it is to find an ace like Fernandez.

 

In a vacuum, yes. But as a stand alone statement that's so obvious that it means essentially nothing.

 

But it doesn't mean we should be trading one of our best players and one of the pillars of the future for Fernandez. Any Red Sox fan knows that.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

In a vacuum, yes. But as a stand alone statement that's so obvious that it means essentially nothing.

 

But it doesn't mean we should be trading one of our best players and one of the pillars of the future for Fernandez. Any Red Sox fan knows that.

 

So something that is so obvious it means nothing???!!!

 

That's a ridiculous statement.

 

And you have to give to get, pretty simple. You are not getting a young ace cheaply.

[S5Dewey]

So something that is so obvious it means nothing???!!!

 

That's a ridiculous statement.

 

And you have to give to get, pretty simple. You are not getting a young ace cheaply.

 

Your suggestion makes the price too high. But thanks anyway.

[User Name]

You don't dig a hole to fill another one up. Also, why would the Marlins want Betts when they have an All-Star OF?

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Your suggestion makes the price too high. But thanks anyway.

 

That's a matter of opinion.

But thanks anyway.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

You don't dig a hole to fill another one up. Also, why would the Marlins want Betts when they have an All-Star OF?

 

That's what I thought when I first read the article. Haven't looked at the contracts for Yellich or Ozuna. Maybe team control?

[User Name]

That's what I thought when I first read the article. Haven't looked at the contracts for Yellich or Ozuna. Maybe team control?

 

All three guys have at least three years of team control.

[Slasher9]

betts for Fernandez?

 

http://beantownbeattomdarcy.sportsblog.com/posts/20561879/red-sox-rumors--would-you-trade-mookie-betts-for-jose-fernandez-.html

 

we dont need to include any of the B's to get a Fernandez type. we have enough high level prospects to get it done without including one of them.

[Jack Flap]

I'll stand by my statement that it's easier to find a RF'er than it is to find an ace like Fernandez.

 

Perhaps in theory, but someone like Betts (one of the game's rising young stars) is not easily replaced, either...nor are we exactly awash in quality outfielders right now.

 

I'm also not a fan of the "Create one hole to fill another" strategy. If Fernandez became available, and if the Red Sox wanted to go down that road, I would think that some combination of several (maybe all) of our top 4 prospects, Swihart, Kopech, etc. should get us in the discussion without having to include Betts, Bogaerts, or anyone else who's indispensable to the major league roster.

[User Name]

The Marlins are thin at IF. Moncada is probably the headliner of any Fernandez deal, and I would not do it. Fernandez is a high-maintenance mechanics guy who throws a lot of breakers, has already had TJS, and doesn't provide the IP bulk of a true top-end guy. No thanks.

[Bellhorn04]

The Marlins are thin at IF. Moncada is probably the headliner of any Fernandez deal, and I would not do it. Fernandez is a high-maintenance mechanics guy who throws a lot of breakers, has already had TJS, and doesn't provide the IP bulk of a true top-end guy. No thanks.

 

There seem to be a lot of guys on the 'no thanks' list.

 

Where is the 'yes please' list?

[cp176]

The Marlins are thin at IF. Moncada is probably the headliner of any Fernandez deal, and I would not do it. Fernandez is a high-maintenance mechanics guy who throws a lot of breakers, has already had TJS, and doesn't provide the IP bulk of a true top-end guy. No thanks.

 

I'm going on the "talksox" record of standing up and saying that trading Moncada possibly could turn out to be one of our all time trading blunders. I don't think that our minor league systems are as loaded up with talent as we sometimes are led to believe. No one knows how these prospects will develop but he has a headstart on most of them.

[Jack Flap]

FTR, I wasn't advocating trading Moncada or anyone else, just saying that if Fernandez did become a possibility for us, we should be able to make it work with prospects rather than established major league talent.

 

I'd love to get Fernandez, but let's not kid ourselves... 1) the Marlins are just as much contenders as we are right now, and 2) even if he was available, the price tag would be obscene.