A Realistic View at 2016

[bowman]

I am surprised that 26-year-old infielder Deven Marrero remains on the 40-man roster given his .192/.239/.235/.475 line in 368 plate appearances at Triple A this year.

 

Got that right. Major disappointment. Plays good defense, but sox had him highly rated at one time....

Edited August 28, 2016 by bowman

[mvp 78]

He's on the 40 because the former 1st rounder would be a prime rule 5 guy. They like his glove and hope his bat can come around. I don't disagree.

[bowman]

Hoping his bat comes around, doubt it...

[moonslav59]

Jeff Todd:

 

Red Sox setup man Koji Uehara hasn’t looked like a sure bet to return this season since landing on the shelf with a strained pectoral in late July, but there is progress on that front, per Scott Lauber of ESPN.com. Uehara threw 53 pitches off a mound “with good intensity” Friday, said manager John Farrell. Uehara will throw again Monday and is “making some pretty good strides,” Farrell added. With a 4.50 ERA to accompany a bloated home run to fly ball rate (16.3 percent) and a minuscule ground-ball percentage (19.0), the battle-tested Uehara hasn’t been nearly as effective in 2016 as he was in previous seasons. On the positive side, the 41-year-old has posted outstanding strikeout and walk numbers (12.75 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9) across 36 innings.

[Nick]

With the score 8-2, why not pitch Buchholtz two innings? Was he tired? Could have saved Ross...then on Monday John Farrell will bitch and moan about the guys in the pen being worned out.....is managing pitchers that difficult?

 

I want to SCREAM. PUSSIES

[Palodios]

With the score 8-2, why not pitch Buchholtz two innings? Was he tired? Could have saved Ross...then on Monday John Farrell will bitch and moan about the guys in the pen being worned out.....is managing pitchers that difficult?

 

I want to SCREAM. PUSSIES

 

My impression is that Buch is more than a long man. If a pitcher goes down, Buch will be the first in line to start.

[Spudboy]

With the score 8-2, why not pitch Buchholtz two innings? Was he tired? Could have saved Ross...then on Monday John Farrell will bitch and moan about the guys in the pen being worned out.....is managing pitchers that difficult?

 

I want to SCREAM. PUSSIES

 

Maybe Farrell wants Buch available for the Sunday night game with a wobbly Erod taking the mound.

 

Who knows? I think they want to bring him in as the guy who starts a clean 8th since he has no wipe out pitch and it takes a while for him to warm up in the pen.

 

But then I'm an old f*** . What do I know?

[Kimmi]

Maybe Farrell wants Buch available for the Sunday night game with a wobbly Erod taking the mound.

 

Who knows? I think they want to bring him in as the guy who starts a clean 8th since he has no wipe out pitch and it takes a while for him to warm up in the pen.

 

But then I'm an old f*** . What do I know?

 

IMO, your first sentence nailed it. Who knows what to expect from ERod tonight? He might be great or he might pitch tentatively because he's worried about his hammy. Farrell might need Buchholz to pitch a couple of innings tonight.

[moonslav59]

IMO, your first sentence nailed it. Who knows what to expect from ERod tonight? He might be great or he might pitch tentatively because he's worried about his hammy. Farrell might need Buchholz to pitch a couple of innings tonight.

 

What if he needs him to pitch 4-6 innings?

 

Wouldn't pitching him 1 Friday night make that difficult?

[moonslav59]

Rutledge is coming off knee surgery so he might not be as sure a bet as you propose. I also wonder about Elias, otherwise I agree with your list of sure returnees.

 

In the probably keep list, I would assume Abad is likely as he has good velocity and a great curve ball. Workman is coming back from injury so he will have to prove he belongs but has what is needed to do that. Sandoval's big contract and past competency will give him a chance to make it, but that will depend on how much he wants it. I can't see keeping Holaday and Brentz and have no opinion on Jerez and Cuevas.

 

Workman, Rutledge and others could begin the season on the 60 man DL, thereby creating roster slots for borderline players.

[moonslav59]

I don't see Hanley exhibiting the kind of contact or power we should expect at DH. He is okay at 1st base defensively but his metrics don't look great and I don't think he is a good base runner. At his age, he is likely to trend downward. The main argument for Hanley is his big contract and how difficult it would be to get any other team to take him for nearly that money. We have another big contract guy in Sandoval who might DH, but is even more iffy than Hanley.

 

Shaw on the other hand is a relatively new player who is good defensively and has show flashes of power. Can he be helped to improve his offensive production? If so, he might be better off at first with Moncada coming along to handle 3rd. I don't think leaving a player in a position where he doesn't show much positive offensive production over a long period is good for the team. All players have slumps but when does a slump become too much for a team to bear?

 

Good points.

 

Imagine if we end up platooning HanRam and Pablo at DH for the remainder of their contracts!

 

$41M total for only a fraction of what Papi gave us.

 

It could happen, as nobody will want these two in trade, unless we pay most of their contracts. It basically may come down to the determination of how much value they have as platoon players to us vs how much we can save by trading one or both.

 

For argument's sake, this could be what the "choice" comes down to:

 

$41M for a DH platoon of Pablo vs RHPs with some use at 3B and 1B and HanRam vs LHPs with some use at 1B.

 

vs.

 

Pay $30M for both to play elksewhere and sign Encarnacion for $25M a year x 5-6 years.

 

So, basically, it could be $41M Pablo/HanRam vs $55M Encarnacion.

 

Is Encarnacion worth the $14M upgrade at DH? Maybe for a year or two, but then what? Pablo and HanRam's deals would have been over in 2-3 years, but then we'd have an aging Encarnacion to deal with at $25M+.

 

[Nick]

Good points.

 

Imagine if we end up platooning HanRam and Pablo at DH for the remainder of their contracts!

 

$41M total for only a fraction of what Papi gave us.

 

It could happen, as nobody will want these two in trade, unless we pay most of their contracts. It basically may come down to the determination of how much value they have as platoon players to us vs how much we can save by trading one or both.

 

For argument's sake, this could be what the "choice" comes down to:

 

$41M for a DH platoon of Pablo vs RHPs with some use at 3B and 1B and HanRam vs LHPs with some use at 1B.

 

vs.

 

Pay $30M for both to play elksewhere and sign Encarnacion for $25M a year x 5-6 years.

 

So, basically, it could be $41M Pablo/HanRam vs $55M Encarnacion.

 

Is Encarnacion worth the $14M upgrade at DH? Maybe for a year or two, but then what? Pablo and HanRam's deals would have been over in 2-3 years, but then we'd have an aging Encarnacion to deal with at $25M+.

 

 

DD should not have his hands tied behind his back for the mistakes that Ben made....Is it a done deal that Encarnacion won't duplicate whtat Ortiz did leading up to his 40th birthday?

[moonslav59]

DD should not have his hands tied behind his back for the mistakes that Ben made....Is it a done deal that Encarnacion won't duplicate whtat Ortiz did leading up to his 40th birthday?

 

No, but the odds are he declines the first year of his deal and continues downward every year of his 5-7 year deal.

 

It's not about hands tied behind his back. Ben left DD with the pieces to trade fro Kimbrell, Pomeranz and more plus a core of young players we haven't seen in Boston since 1975.

 

We do not have a limitless budget. We have about $30M to spend to fill 3 RP'er roles and then maybe look for a SP'er and/or DH. I seriously doubt we go way over the luxury tax limit for consecutive years.

 

Maybe we can shed Pablo's deal from the tax budget, but we'll still be paying him, Castillo and Craig- .apart from the luxury tax budget.

 

The sky is not the limit, and EE will want mega bucks for mega years.

[moonslav59]

Nobody is posting anymore.

 

What's up with that?

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody is posting anymore.

 

What's up with that?

 

Just a temporary lull.

[oldtimer]

No, but the odds are he declines the first year of his deal and continues downward every year of his 5-7 year deal.

 

It's not about hands tied behind his back. Ben left DD with the pieces to trade fro Kimbrell, Pomeranz and more plus a core of young players we haven't seen in Boston since 1975.

 

We do not have a limitless budget. We have about $30M to spend to fill 3 RP'er roles and then maybe look for a SP'er and/or DH. I seriously doubt we go way over the luxury tax limit for consecutive years.

 

Maybe we can shed Pablo's deal from the tax budget, but we'll still be paying him, Castillo and Craig- .apart from the luxury tax budget.

 

The sky is not the limit, and EE will want mega bucks for mega years.

 

These are word of wisdom. We a trapped with huge contracts on players that have not been very productive nor are good trade prospects going forward. I think Ben Cherrington put us in that position but DD is having to live with the consequences. A huge long term contract for Encarnacion might yield good results for a year with less likely production in follow on years but is probably more economic commitment than John Henry would like and is risky to say the least. My solution would be to use substitute players on the roster to fill the DH position and try to shed the contracts of Panda and Hanley.

 

While we will not get the hitting of Ortiz going forward, we at least increase team speed and get some production at a lot less money.

[Spudboy]

But the team makes a s*** ton of money in any case.

[mvp 78]

But the team makes a s*** ton of money in any case.

 

They make enough money to afford any contract that is coming due over the next few years. Worrying about the money aspect is silly when you're consistently one of the top payrolls in the game.

 

http://www.forbes.com/teams/boston-red-sox/

 

This team is worth $2.3B!!! The players contracts are chump change to a guy like John Henry who is personally worth $2.4B...

[oldtimer]

They make enough money to afford any contract that is coming due over the next few years. Worrying about the money aspect is silly when you're consistently one of the top payrolls in the game.

 

http://www.forbes.com/teams/boston-red-sox/

 

This team is worth $2.3B!!! The players contracts are chump change to a guy like John Henry who is personally worth $2.4B...

 

John Henry is a business man and expects real value when he makes an expenditure. When he sees his real baseball people making decision like Panda, Castillo, Hanley and Craig he has to wonder and question whether the decision makers are competent. The Yankees went and threw a long of money at seasoned players with long term contracts and it didn't buy them much either. It rarely works to put out big money in the form of a long term contract to a seasoned (older) star player. Arguing the money doesn't matter doesn't make a lot of sense as we soon will be trying to retain young stars and add pitching depth and will need to put a lot of money into that.

[moonslav59]

Obviously Sox management is will to take enormous financial risks. The Price signing settled that debate as well as the "going long term with over 29 pitchers" debate.

 

You never want past failures to totally paralyze you, but lessons should be learned none the less.

 

The Pablo, HanRam, Castillo & CC contracts have really hurt us, and I can certainly see how one could argue that solving their problems by going long and large on Encarnacion risks just repeating history over and over and not learning from it, but of course every situation is unique.

 

I just think signing a 34 year old pretty much DH only player to at least 4 years is really taking a major gamble. EE has been amazingly consistent at hitting over .900, but it is very rare for someone to not seriously decline after age 33-34. While I'd love to have him on the Sox, the cost and length of term will both be too much for me to stomach. Couple that with the fact that signing him will squeeze out playing time from some pretty decent and/or high-priced players makes the idea even less appealing.

 

I do think the Pomeranz trade has lessened the need for a front line pitcher, but I'd still prefer to go that route than trying to stay afloat at DH for the next 4+ years. I thinik spending large on the pen will be priority number one, and that may take up a big chunk of the $30M we'll have to spend without going over the luxury tax.

 

Even if we get someone to eat $15M of HanRam's $22M and $6M of Pablo's $19M, which is probably unlikely, we'll be paying $20M for nothing. I'm not saying a HanRam-Pablo platoon will do as well as EE, but is it really worth paying $20M to make both go away plus the $28M or so EE will want? Is the differential worth that cost?

 

We also have Shaw, Moncada, Young, Travis, Hernandez and possibly Swihart in the 3B/1B/DH mix next spring. I just don't see it worth happening.

 

[Kimmi]

Nobody is posting anymore.

 

What's up with that?

 

My summer vacation is over. Back to reality. Can't post during the workday.

[Nick]

Obviously Sox management is will to take enormous financial risks. The Price signing settled that debate as well as the "going long term with over 29 pitchers" debate.

 

You never want past failures to totally paralyze you, but lessons should be learned none the less.

 

The Pablo, HanRam, Castillo & CC contracts have really hurt us, and I can certainly see how one could argue that solving their problems by going long and large on Encarnacion risks just repeating history over and over and not learning from it, but of course every situation is unique.

 

I just think signing a 34 year old pretty much DH only player to at least 4 years is really taking a major gamble. EE has been amazingly consistent at hitting over .900, but it is very rare for someone to not seriously decline after age 33-34. While I'd love to have him on the Sox, the cost and length of term will both be too much for me to stomach. Couple that with the fact that signing him will squeeze out playing time from some pretty decent and/or high-priced players makes the idea even less appealing.

 

I do think the Pomeranz trade has lessened the need for a front line pitcher, but I'd still prefer to go that route than trying to stay afloat at DH for the next 4+ years. I thinik spending large on the pen will be priority number one, and that may take up a big chunk of the $30M we'll have to spend without going over the luxury tax.

 

Even if we get someone to eat $15M of HanRam's $22M and $6M of Pablo's $19M, which is probably unlikely, we'll be paying $20M for nothing. I'm not saying a HanRam-Pablo platoon will do as well as EE, but is it really worth paying $20M to make both go away plus the $28M or so EE will want? Is the differential worth that cost?

 

We also have Shaw, Moncada, Young, Travis, Hernandez and possibly Swihart in the 3B/1B/DH mix next spring. I just don't see it worth happening.

 

 

We ate Pablo's large contract this spring and made Shaw our starting 3B. I'm not sure why you continue to bring up his contract value to the table. DD has told JF play your best players. What has Pablo done to make any of you think he's any different now?

 

The way I look at DH spot is that we have Ortiz' 15/16M to start with. Most likely we will not need a SP or if we do make a trade for one, just eliminating Clay Buchholtz option dollars should cover the acquisition cost for cost controlled young SP.

 

I'm not really willing to pay Encarnacion north of $20M per year. That's an overpay for a DH. But $20M to me is doable. What will it take to get him?

 

Relief pitching...say we need 3. We could pass on Clay B and save $13M. Koji and Tazawa combine for about 12-13M. So in theory, that's $25M possibly available for relievers.

 

Other pay increase surely can be covered by increase in luxury tax limit, no?

Edited August 30, 2016 by Nick

[cp176]

We ate Pablo's large contract this spring and made Shaw our starting 3B. I'm not sure why you continue to bring up his contract value to the table. DD has told JF play your best players. What has Pablo done to make any of you think he's any different now?

 

The way I look at DH spot is that we have Ortiz' 15/16M to start with. Most likely we will not need a SP or if we do make a trade for one, just eliminating Clay Buchholtz option dollars should cover the acquisition cost for cost controlled young SP.

 

I'm not really willing to pay Encarnacion north of $20M per year. That's an overpay for a DH. But $20M to me is doable.

 

The decision made next year relating to the dh will have very little to do with dollars spent. They may choose to go out and get a player the likes of Encarnarcion or they may just handle the position from within. Ultimately they will make a decision based upon how they can maintain a strong position going forward. As they have been for many years, they are a big market team with few budgetary restrictions. It's very likely that they sign Encarnarcion and trade for a totr pitcher as well. They won't be changing their stripes all of sudden and start acting like a budget conscious franchise. It's good to be King.

[Nick]

The decision made next year relating to the dh will have very little to do with dollars spent. They may choose to go out and get a player the likes of Encarnarcion or they may just handle the position from within. Ultimately they will make a decision based upon how they can maintain a strong position going forward. As they have been for many years, they are a big market team with few budgetary restrictions. It's very likely that they sign Encarnarcion and trade for a totr pitcher as well. They won't be changing their stripes all of sudden and start acting like a budget conscious franchise. It's good to be King.

 

I hope so

[cp176]

I hope so

 

me too

[moonslav59]

My summer vacation is over. Back to reality. Can't post during the workday.

 

You a teacher?

[moonslav59]

We ate Pablo's large contract this spring and made Shaw our starting 3B. I'm not sure why you continue to bring up his contract value to the table. DD has told JF play your best players. What has Pablo done to make any of you think he's any different now?

 

I've said over and over I personally would not count on any further production from Pablo. My guess is Sox management is not going to plan on any contribution from him either. However, they are not going to write him off or DFA before having another look or two. Even when he was bad, he was decent vs RHPs. It was just so god-awful horrible vs lefties. It's not a stretch to think he could eventually have some value as a DH vs LHPs.

 

Many Sox fans viewed HanRam the same as they view Pablo, but he has shown he can add some value. To me, he is slipping. I'd try hard to trade him and said I'd trade him even if he hit .900 this year. That being said, I'm not sure how much salary relief we'd get, so I'm not sure it's worth it. I think he still has value vs LHPs. That's an awfully expensive platoon for someone who only would start against lefties, and he'd probably pout or demand a trade, if we ever tried to platoon him with Pablo at DH, but maybe if he played some 1B vs RHPs, it could work.

 

I hate the idea of playing Pablo and HanRam next year- even as platoons, and even if they both were okay with the idea, but the fact is we have a restricted budget. We went over the luxury limit this year, so going over next year increases the tax rate, I think to 50%. Add to that the "off-the-books" cost of Castillo and Craig, and our need to spend on 2-3 quality RP'ers this winter, and some tough choices might have to be made.

 

Yes, we "ate" Pablo's contract, but it didn't go away. It still has ramifications with our budget. The contract is still on the "table". It's not going away.

 

 

The way I look at DH spot is that we have Ortiz' 15/16M to start with. Most likely we will not need a SP or if we do make a trade for one, just eliminating Clay Buchholtz option dollars should cover the acquisition cost for cost controlled young SP.

 

Even if the luxury tax limit goes up to $210M, we'll have about $30M to spend. That's not enough to sign 2-3 quality RP'ers and Encarnacion without going seriously over the luxury limit, and that doesn't even address our rotation and added depth.

 

I'm not really willing to pay Encarnacion north of $20M per year. That's an overpay for a DH. But $20M to me is doable. What will it take to get him?

 

My guess is $23M x 4 or 5 years. Some desperate GM might go $25M x 5 or $22M x 6, even though he'll be 34 next year.

 

Relief pitching...say we need 3. We could pass on Clay B and save $13M. Koji and Tazawa combine for about 12-13M. So in theory, that's $25M possibly available for relievers.

 

Other pay increase surely can be covered by increase in luxury tax limit, no?

 

see above. We'll have about $30M to spend to get even with the luxury tax limit.

[moonslav59]

The decision made next year relating to the dh will have very little to do with dollars spent. They may choose to go out and get a player the likes of Encarnarcion or they may just handle the position from within. Ultimately they will make a decision based upon how they can maintain a strong position going forward. As they have been for many years, they are a big market team with few budgetary restrictions. It's very likely that they sign Encarnarcion and trade for a totr pitcher as well. They won't be changing their stripes all of sudden and start acting like a budget conscious franchise. It's good to be King.

 

We have consistently stayed very close to the luxury tax limit for many years. They've never gone way over the luxury tax, especially when the rate is going to be at 50% this year. Doing so would be "changing their stripes".

 

Money does matter to this team.

 

If we were able to trade for Sale or Quintana, the contractual hit would actually be small. Both are very reasonably priced, and what's better is their luxury tax number is way lower than their actual salary, so yes, we could sign EE and trade for Sale, but that would get us right at the luxury tax, and everything we spend on 2-3 quality RP'ers would be taxed at 50% (maybe $24M + $12M tax?)

 

I guess it's "doable", but I seriously doubt we sign EE, trade for an ace and sign 2-3 top quality RP'ers. Our budget will be shot, and our future might be extremely compromised.

[southpaw777]

John Henry is a business man and expects real value when he makes an expenditure. When he sees his real baseball people making decision like Panda, Castillo, Hanley and Craig he has to wonder and question whether the decision makers are competent. The Yankees went and threw a long of money at seasoned players with long term contracts and it didn't buy them much either. It rarely works to put out big money in the form of a long term contract to a seasoned (older) star player. Arguing the money doesn't matter doesn't make a lot of sense as we soon will be trying to retain young stars and add pitching depth and will need to put a lot of money into that.

 

Henry and Werner had a big part in wanting to make a splash with Panda and Hanley. They were a big part of Crawford as well. Its just as much their fault as it is the GM. Do you really think they didnt have anything to do with it?

Before DD came here this ownership and FO constantly stuck their noses in baseball operations. I highly doubt DD would have agreed to come here if they were to continue it.

So The good thing is at least we now know what everyones role is.

[cp176]

I get what you are saying. Much of it makes sense. The problem as I see it is that we have no idea how much money the total franchise makes in a calendar year. I'm sure that no one wants to go over the luxury tax, but it is a decision that probably is directly related to how much money the whole package makes. I have to think that the decisions made during the off season will be ones that strengthen the team going forward. If they have a specific player in mind that they want to acquire, I really don't think that their "budget" will keep them from moving on it.