A Realistic View at 2016

[Bellhorn04]

Your problem this year is that while the AL lacks a true elite team, it has a bunch of very good teams. What has been proven time and again is that your team isn't built to win close games. The starting pitching will give up runs. Aside from the final guy in your pen, they're suspect. You need your O to carry you and when the dog days of summer hit, some sluggishness should be expected.

 

That's nonsensical. We're 13-14 in one-run games. Means nothing one way or the other.

[Kimmi]

Your problem this year is that while the AL lacks a true elite team, it has a bunch of very good teams. What has been proven time and again is that your team isn't built to win close games. The starting pitching will give up runs. Aside from the final guy in your pen, they're suspect. You need your O to carry you and when the dog days of summer hit, some sluggishness should be expected.

 

Crock. No team is 'built to win close games'.

[Kimmi]

That's nonsensical. We're 13-14 in one-run games. Means nothing one way or the other.

 

Ha. Great minds think alike.

[moonslav59]

That's a little harsh. None of Dombrowski's moves can be ruled busts yet either.

 

That's why I said "so far".

 

Isn't it a little sad to you than no other deal has looked good right out of the gate?

[Bellhorn04]

That's why I said "so far".

 

Isn't it a little sad to you than no other deal has looked good right out of the gate?

 

Sad, no. Disappointing, yes. I've tried to learn to be patient with these things. Porcello is another good example of why you can't judge these things right away.

[moonslav59]

Normally I agree with your point of view but I don't agree that DD has made poor trades. I think he got the best available to fill in voids created by injuries and by some lack of performance and he had done that without giving away many of our best prospects. Getting Sale would have been nice, but the reality is that we couldn't get that deal done without an extremely high price. Neither could other teams who need a starting pitcher.

 

Looking over the past number of games, an ace would not have won us many or possible none of those games as our offense has gone into a funk. Our pitching is decent, we have offensive pieces, now we have to get them to play up to their potential. Seems that is what has been lacking of late.

 

To me, our biggest weakness has been our 7.00+ ERA from our 5th starter. Had we gotten another solid #1 or #2, I think we have a few more wins. As it is right now, we're a half game out of the last WC slot.

 

It's hard to watch these 9-0 wins followed by 3-0 losses, but consistency is something teams relying on scoring to win is almost always hard to master. When you have a great pitching staff, you are "in more games", and in theory, have more chances to win.

 

In games where teams score 5 or more runs, you should win the vast majority of them. We are 50-13 (63 games!). When scoring 4 runs, we are 6-5, so in total we are 56-18 in games scoring 4 or more runs (74 total games).

 

We've only had 35 games scoring 3 or less and only 14 scoring 1 or less.

 

68% scoring 4 or more runs (.758 winning %)

58% scoring 5 or more (.793).

 

Let's look at the other contenders in the AL:

 

Toronto

62% scoring 4 or more runs (.783).

46% scoring 5 or more (.808).

 

They are 12-5 in games scoring 4 runs. We are 6-5.

 

We score 4 or more runs and 5 or more runs more than Toronto, but we lose a higher percentage of those games. We "consistently" score more than enough to usually win, but we don't.

 

That can only mean it's the fault of runs allowed.

 

Baltimore

 

59% with 4 or more runs scored (.769) 50-15

45% with 5 or more runs scored (.796) 39-10

 

Again, we score 4 or more runs and 5 or more runs way more "consistently" than the O's and we win about the same percent as they do(actually slightly less), since they have weak pitching as well.

 

It's not our hitting: it's our pitching.

 

Texas

63% with 4 or more runs (.714).

52% with 5 or more runs (.741).

 

Texas is 7-5 in 4 run games and 7-9 in 5 run games. They have a weird way of winning. They are 14-14 in games where they score 4-5 runs, but are 13-9 in games they score 2-3 runs!!! Go figure!

 

Anyways, we score 4 and 5 or more runs more than Texas as well, so our offense is more consistent than theirs.

 

Guardians

 

67% scoring 4 or more runs (.774)

57% scoring 5 or more runs (.817)

 

They are pretty close to us in scoring consistency, but they win the games by a better percentage than we do in 5 or more runs scored games.

 

Look, I know we play in a hitter's park, so the numbers are skewed by that somewhat. I know there is some evidence that shows we don't spread our runs around as evenly as other teams (see below), but we ought to win more games when we score 4 or 5 or more runs.

 

0-1 runs scored/total games played:

10/111 Jays

13/109 Orioles

14/109 Red Sox

14/106 Guardians

17/110 Tigers

19/111 Rangers

 

 

[moonslav59]

Team record in GS'd by...

 

16-6 Porcello

14-8 Wright

11-12 Price

 

41-26 Total from top 3 SP'ers

 

19-23 others.

 

ERA as starters:

15.75 Elias (1 GS)

8.46 Kelly (6)

6.64 O'Sullivan (4)

6.31 Buch (13)

6.20 Pomeranz (4)

5.93 ERod (11)

5.11 Owens (3)

 

OPS against

.615 Wright (in 610 PAs)

.680 Porcello (581)

.730 Price (630)

 

.863 O'Sullivan (93)

.867 Buchholz (313)

.869 ERod (256)

.870 Pomeranz (92)

1.001 Kelly (119)

1.049 Owens (59)

1.254 Elias (21)

 

Isn't it clear what our biggest weakness is.

 

Do we even need these stats to know it?

 

[moonslav59]

Sad, no. Disappointing, yes. I've tried to learn to be patient with these things. Porcello is another good example of why you can't judge these things right away.

 

I'm sad and disappointed by the performances and injuries to juat about every player we acquired since DD took over.

 

I'm not making a definitive judgement over a small sample size. I'm just making an observation on what has happened so far. After watching FA signing bust after bust with Theo and Ben and most trades backfire, I was hoping at least someone would come out of the gate doing well.

 

It hasn't happened SO FAR.

 

It is sad.

 

It is disappointing.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm sad and disappointed by the performances and injuries to juat about every player we acquired since DD took over.

 

I'm not making a definitive judgement over a small sample size. I'm just making an observation on what has happened so far. After watching FA signing bust after bust with Theo and Ben and most trades backfire, I was hoping at least someone would come out of the gate doing well.

 

It hasn't happened SO FAR.

 

It is sad.

 

It is disappointing.

 

 

Just imagine how John Henry feels...it's like a weird new curse.

[moonslav59]

Newly acquired:

 

D Price: team is 12-13 in his starts

9-7 4.30 ERA/ 1.25 WHIP (both higher than normal)

 

C Kimbrell was on the DL for a few weeks

2-3 3.31 ERA/ 1.05 WHIP (both higher than normal)

 

D Pomeranz was a top 20 NL starter this year

0-2 6.20 ERA/ 1.67 WHIP (both way higher thaan norm in tiny sample size)

 

B Ziegler was a rental pick-up

0-2 0.96 ERS/ 0.86 WHIP (both higher, but 2 losses in 10 games)

 

A Abad had a rotten first game.

0-1 6.75/ 2.24 WHIP (just 2 games sample size)

 

C Young has been on the DL for many weeks (48 Gms/142 PAs)

.277 6 15 (.338/.508/.846)

 

A Hill has played in 17 gms with 61 PAs

.218 1 4 (.295/.367/.586)

 

M Martinez, R LaMarre & M Miller were 1 for 13 with 2 BBs.

 

I hate it when posters make definitive judgments based on small sample sizes, and that's not what I'm doing here, but so far, the numbers look pretty bleak. Only Young has done as well or better than expected, but hes' been hurt too much. Ziegler has done okay.

 

Price has looked better recently, and we will need him to pitch like an ace, if we want to make the playoffs and go deep in them.

 

I'm not sure what's up with Pomeranz. The 12 BB in 20 IP are frightening. He may just have needed some time to adjust, but that time is over.

 

Getting Kimbrell back should give us a big boost.

 

I'm hoping for the best with all these newbies as well as others.

 

 

Going back to last year's acquisitions, only de Aza's mid season pick-up did better than expected:

 

2015-2016 combined numbers w Sox (only)

 

.292/.347/.484/.831 de Aza (178 PAs)

.262/.321/.436/.756 Ramirez (854)

.207/.307/.386/.693 Napoli (378)

.242/.290/.361/.651 Sandoval (512)

(others acquired before '15: Castillo .647, Vic .622, Hanigan .586, Craig .441)

 

Miley 11-11 4.46 (193 IP)

Ogando 3-1 3.99 (65)

Masterson 4-2 5.61 (59)

(Miley was perhaps our most consistent wire-to-wire SP'er last year.)

[Nick]

Team record in GS'd by...

 

16-6 Porcello

14-8 Wright

11-12 Price

 

41-26 Total from top 3 SP'ers

 

19-23 others.

 

ERA as starters:

15.75 Elias (1 GS)

8.46 Kelly (6)

6.64 O'Sullivan (4)

6.31 Buch (13)

6.20 Pomeranz (4)

5.93 ERod (11)

5.11 Owens (3)

 

OPS against

.615 Wright (in 610 PAs)

.680 Porcello (581)

.730 Price (630)

 

.863 O'Sullivan (93)

.867 Buchholz (313)

.869 ERod (256)

.870 Pomeranz (92)

1.001 Kelly (119)

1.049 Owens (59)

1.254 Elias (21)

 

Isn't it clear what our biggest weakness is.

 

Do we even need these stats to know it?

 

 

We should be in first place simply by winning few more times when Price starts....it's as simple as that...3 game differential puts us in 1st place. I don't think 14-9 is too much to ask from a $210M man.

[moonslav59]

Some Sox notes from MLBTR....

*** Left-hander Rich Hill, whom the Dodgers acquired from Oakland on Monday, would’ve preferred to go to either the Orioles or Red Sox at the non-waiver trade deadline, reports Cafardo. Those are two of the journeyman’s many former major league employers, and the 36-year-old Massachusetts native revived his career with Boston in 2015. The Orioles were in on Hill prior to the deadline and are likely to target him this winter if he hits free agency as arguably the premier starter in a weak market.

 

*** Before the Red Sox picked up reliever Brad Ziegler from Arizona on July 9, they were looking at White Sox closer David Robertson as a possible trade target, Cafardo writes. For now, Robertson remains in Chicago. The 31-year-old still has $28.5MM remaining on his contract and hasn’t been as effective this season as he was previously, having compiled a 3.97 ERA, 10.13 K/9 and 4.57 BB/9 in 45 1/3 innings.

 

*** The Red Sox aggressively tried to acquire right fielder and designated hitter Carlos Beltran before the archrival Yankees traded him to the Rangers, according to Cafardo, who adds that a deal was close enough that Boston expected it to happen. Of course, after failing to land Beltran, the Sox promoted elite left field prospect Andrew Benintendi to the majors.

 

Maybe we'll sign Hill and Robertson this winter.

 

I'm glad we missed out on Beltran as my guess is the return would have been significant.

[moonslav59]

We should be in first place simply by winning few more times when Price starts....it's as simple as that...3 game differential puts us in 1st place. I don't think 14-9 is too much to ask from a $210M man.

 

Yes, the weakness has been with SP'ing. Agreed.

[a700hitter]

Oh the $210 million man, $200 million dollars -- need to get more from him for that money!!! Who the hell watches games like that? Get over the money. They all make a ton.

[moonslav59]

Money or no money, Price has not pitched to expectations.

[moonslav59]

We should be in first place simply by winning few more times when Price starts....it's as simple as that...3 game differential puts us in 1st place. I don't think 14-9 is too much to ask from a $210M man.

 

That is true, but our offense has carried us to a surprising good 19-23 record in games not started by Porcello, Wright and Price, so we could rob Peter to pay Paul and be right where we are now.

 

[/b]

[a700hitter]

Money or no money, Price has not pitched to expectations.

That is fine, but his first name is David not "$210 million for"

[mvp 78]

Oh the $210 million man, $200 million dollars -- need to get more from him for that money!!! Who the hell watches games like that? Get over the money. They all make a ton.

 

And similarly with Pablo, my complaints weren't about the money, but about the play on the field.

[moonslav59]

Price is really starting to piss me off.

 

Yes, David Price.

[robert vonhalle]

Price is really starting to piss me off.

 

Yes, David Price.

 

Agree,sox need to find out what is going on with him!

[Nick]

The bottom line is to never fall in love with a player...no one is worth $30m per year...

 

Sox can not overspend on Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley....

 

Benintendi is a keeper in LF...that's six years of control....3 years at league minimum...

 

If we don't sign Encarancion, what about platooning Shaw and Young as DH. The can provide LF/3B/1B depth.

[Nick]

I'm okay with Bradley being packaged to the White Sox for a starting pitcher....

 

Will they take Bradley, Devers and E Rod and couple of more mid tier prospects?

[moonslav59]

The bottom line is to never fall in love with a player...no one is worth $30m per year...

 

These huge signings hardly ever work out, even in the early years.

 

People always say, you pay big for the early years and expect the later years to get burned, but it doesn't even work out that way too often to make it worth the risk.

 

Encarnacion will want a 5 or 6 year deal. He may even get 7 from someone.

 

At this point, I wish we had just kept all the kids and stuck with the "five year plan".

 

If we trade for Sale, he'll suck the second we get him. That's how it feels in my gut right now.

 

This sucks!

 

Edited August 8, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Will they take Bradley, Devers and E Rod and couple of more mid tier prospects?

 

Bradley, Betts and ERod all have more control than Bogey.

 

I want to keep the B's (Betts, Bogey, Bradley & Beni) along with the M (Moncada).

 

Blow up the rest for all I care!

 

Hope I feel better in the morning.

[oldtimer]

Will they take Bradley, Devers and E Rod and couple of more mid tier prospects?

 

Bradley, Betts and ERod all have more control than Bogey.

 

I want to keep the B's (Betts, Bogey, Bradley & Beni) along with the M (Moncada).

 

Blow up the rest for all I care!

ing after

Hope I feel better in the morning.

 

Step back and take a couple of deep breaths. Price had a bad outing after a couple of good ones where there was little support. I never like long and expensive deals for older players and our history of late and really that of the Yankees shows the folly of them. Still, it is what it is and we will need to live with Price and he should give us some good games along the way. Meanwhile we need to get our offense going.

 

Betts, Bogey, Bradley, Pedey, Ortiz still are stalwarts for this year and need to be energized. Shaw is not so bad and has some upside and Beni is promising. Leon has helped us a lot as well and the pitching is fairly sound for this year. Hill has been a decent sub as well as Holt. All is not lost, but our road trip was not a good one and maybe home cooking will get us straightened out and some good wins.

 

If you are thinking of next year, with Ortiz gone we still have many elements of a good team. Moncada should be available late this season and get a chance to show his worth. The hope is that Vasquez or Swihart can handle the second catcher role which leaves us with the need for a DH and additional pitching. Encarnacion is tempting but again he is an older player who will demand a high dollar long term contract. I am not sold on Hanley doing the job so maybe we can find a less vaunted player who can do the job and also play in the field if necessary.

 

Possibly we will develop a SP and/or RP's internally leaving us with some trade bait to fill positions where our hopes don't turn into realities.

[Kimmi]

We should be in first place simply by winning few more times when Price starts....it's as simple as that...3 game differential puts us in 1st place. I don't think 14-9 is too much to ask from a $210M man.

 

If he were pitching like an ace, we'd be in first place.

[Kimmi]

Oh the $210 million man, $200 million dollars -- need to get more from him for that money!!! Who the hell watches games like that? Get over the money. They all make a ton.

 

And yet, you fret over the money that Farrell is making. Go figure.

[Kimmi]

Price is really starting to piss me off.

 

Yes, David Price.

 

^^This!!!

[Kimmi]

The bottom line is to never fall in love with a player...no one is worth $30m per year...

 

Sox can not overspend on Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley....

 

Benintendi is a keeper in LF...that's six years of control....3 years at league minimum...

 

If we don't sign Encarancion, what about platooning Shaw and Young as DH. The can provide LF/3B/1B depth.

 

I have never been a fan of large contracts. I was against this contract from the get go, though I really liked the idea of having Price on my team. He really looked like as close to a sure thing as you can get, at least for the early years of the contract.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is, although these huge contracts are rarely a good idea, I really can't fault Dombrowski for signing Price. It was an overpay, but Price should have been a huge upgrade. Dombrowski cannot control what happens on the field.

 

Along the same philosophy of large contracts, Encarnacion should not be signed unless he will agree to 3 years max.

[greenwell]

I have never been a fan of large contracts. I was against this contract from the get go, though I really liked the idea of having Price on my team. He really looked like as close to a sure thing as you can get, at least for the early years of the contract.

 

I guess what I'm trying to say is, although these huge contracts are rarely a good idea, I really can't fault Dombrowski for signing Price. It was an overpay, but Price should have been a huge upgrade. Dombrowski cannot control what happens on the field.

 

Along the same philosophy of large contracts, Encarnacion should not be signed unless he will agree to 3 years max.

 

Completely agree on Price. If he was even close to what he should be no-one would be calling for Farrell's job and we would be calling this latest road trip a success. I see lots of excuses being made for Price, he pitched good in some games, his defense/bullpen let him down, but if he was pitching the way he should noone would have to make excuses. I fully expected the contract would look bad in the last few years and I was unsure what he would do in the postseason, but I never thought he would be this bad during his first season.