A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

It sounds like the plan is Moncada to 3B, so Shaw would be moved to 1B or traded.

 

Absolutely, with HanRam moved to DH next year. My point was based on a very real possibility that Moncada will not be good enough defensively at 3B by the start of next year. That's one reason I advocated starting to give reps at 3B to Moncada "sooner rather than later". The Sox have done just about what I suggested, and that was called "silly" and "ridiculous" at the time as well.

 

[moonslav59]

If Pablo is simply let go and someone picks him up for league minimum, does his salary count for Red Sox luxury tax?

 

I think so, yes.

 

That's why we may DFA him, allow someone to claim him at his contract now, and when nobody does, he stays with the team as a non 40 man roster player - like Craig & Castillo, so his contract is still paid, but does not count against the luxury limit.

[moonslav59]

Have a hunch our 2017 DH will be a mixture of HanRam/Shaw(if not traded)/Panda. Moncada has prior 3B experience, & I read this morning Sox Org may not feel it neccessary for Moncada to play 3B in a game before being promoted. His pregame work at 3B may be enough. Working on things he knows, but also on things he's never actually worked on and they're fine-tuning his footwork. Exciting times... not because I think either Beni or Moncada will be the next Trout, but just on the basis that the caliber of homegrown position players we'll be putting on the field for years to come is just amazing. Even HanRam is technically homegrown. Longterm, if we find away to drop some payroll from some bad FA/International signings & work on our pitching staff, we cld be a great team for a long time.

 

I read that too about Moncada playing 3B at a very young age in Cuba. Very encouraging. Perhaps, I'm over-doing the slow development aspect of Moncada at 3B. I hope I am, but if some posters got their way, Moncada would have only played 2B this year at AA, then maybe learned 3B over the winter, started next year at 3B in AAA and arived in the majors who knows when.

[cp176]

Just a scenario, what if it takes 2 years for Moncada to become a decent enough 3Bman to not be an embarrassment?

 

You all would keep him in the minors rather than get his bat in the line-up as a DH while he keeps practicing at another position?

 

It's just a hypothetical scenario. Of course, I'm all for playing Moncada at a position, if he's good enough to not be a minus.

 

Shaw has done better at 3B than I expected, and he's seems to be improving. I have serious questions about Shaw's offense, especially vs LHPs, so I do not see Shaw as beating out Moncada at 3B, once Moncada proves he can play 3B. We're not trading Pedey, so Moncada has to learn 3B, 1B our LF to win a job next year. Maybe I'm totally wrong about his slow progress defensively at 2B. If I am, then I'm probably wrong about how long it might take him to develop at 3B.

 

I may also be wrong about Moncada's bat being MLB ready or very close to ML ready right now. If I am wrong, then maybe Moncada has morre time to learn a new position than I think.

 

I also think we should spend almost all our financial resources on pitching next winter not on Encarnacion or the likes. That means we may, if Sox management feels the same way, have to cobble together a line-up with a few positions in flux, platooned or in competition for FT status:

 

LF: Beni, Young, Swihart, Holt, Moncada???

3B: Moncada, Shaw, Pablo, Hernandez, Holt (Rutledge)

1B: Shaw, HanRam, Pablo, Swihart???, (Holt)

DH: HanRam, Pablo, Young, Moncada/Shaw

 

The first name listed is who I would like to see at each position, but until Moncada shows he can play 3B, I'm keeping the DH position as a strong option.

 

I hope we do not trade Moncada, just because he may be slow to learn 3B or LF. That would be a bigger mistake than trying Moncada at DH until he learns another position.

 

 

Too many players and you didn't even list them all. I continue to believe that they will take care of any pitching issues via the trade route and that they will take care of the position of dh either by using Ramirez there ( which I hope they don't do) or by signing Encarnarcion or a player like him. I'm not a big advocate of stock piling ml ready players just to prove to everyone that you have depth. I'm guessing that the field of candidates for position players gets shortened thru the trade process.

[moonslav59]

SEATTLE — Those looking for clarity from Drew Pomeranz on Thursday night were likely disappointed.

In his fourth start for Red Sox, Pomeranz remains a bit of a mystery. A cursory glance at the box score from Boston's 3-2 win over Seattle Thursday tells you two runs on four hits over six innings — a line the Sox will take nine times out of 10. But if Pomeranz pitched better than his stats his last time out in Anaheim, he was on the other side of that on Thursday.

Pomeranz had command issues from the get-go, as shown by the leadoff walk he issued to Guillermo Heredia in the first. He had problems locating his curveball early and his fastball later.

Pomeranz walked six Mariners, albeit the last of them intentional. Three came in the fourth inning, which he managed to escape unscathed with a bases-loaded groundout from Leonys Martin.

"He was erratic, obviously, with the number of walks issued," manager John Farrell said. "When he was in the strike zone, it was very good stuff. The one thing he didn't do, particularly to guys in the middle of the order, he didn't give in in certain counts."

"I don't mind walking guys as long as I don't give up runs," said Pomeranz. "I was just missing a little bit. They were pretty patient on some of my curveballs."

The one inning the Mariners got to him was the fifth. Shawn O'Malley pounced on a first-pitch changeup — the second and final change Pomeranz threw Thursday, and the one pitch he said he regretted — for a leadoff home run. Heredia followed with Seattle's second bunt single of the night, and he scored the tying run on Dae-ho Lee's two-out sinking line drive to right.

Pomeranz was inefficient for most of the night, requiring at least 18 pitches in four of his six innings. In his four starts with the Sox, the lefty is averaging close to 18 pitches per inning and nearly four pitches per plate appearance.

He did finish the evening strong, recording his first 1-2-3 inning of the game in the sixth.

 

I supported the trade but he's been a disappointment....another freaking Clay Buchholtz. I don't mind walking guys as long as they don't score? Is he that stupid? At some point they will score. Does he really think he's so different from 6000 major league pitchers that's ever pitched? He's lucky to go 6 innings, wearing out our bullpen. Why are modern day pitchers such whimps?

 

I hate making definitive judgments based on tiny sample sizes, but Pomeranz is really worrying me.

 

I hated the trade at the time, but it was more based on what I thought Espinoza was going to become, but I didn't expect Pomeranz to take this long to adjust.

[illinoisredsox]

I think so, yes.

 

That's why we may DFA him, allow someone to claim him at his contract now, and when nobody does, he stays with the team as a non 40 man roster player - like Craig & Castillo, so his contract is still paid, but does not count against the luxury limit.

 

However, unlike Craig and Castillo, Pablo has enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment, which forces the Sox to either keep him on the major league roster or release him. If the latter, somebody almost certainly would sign him for the minimum and the difference in salary would count against the Sox luxury tax threshold. Either way, I don't how the Sox avoid counting all or most of that contract against the cap.

[moonslav59]

He's already a middle infielder. Doubt he'd be an embarrassment at 3b.

 

I'm not one for judging players by errors made. I like to look at range and other metrics, but unfortunately, there are none in the minors.

 

I did notice that Moncada has 37 errors in about a full ML seasons worth of play at 2B in the minors (1350 innings).

 

He has improved from 23 in 621 last year to 14 in 776 this year, so maybe I'm wrong about his ability to learn quickly. I was basing my opinion on the fact that he has not done well defensively at a position he was "comfortable" with over 2 seasons in the minors, and now we expect him to get to ML readiness in a few short months.

 

This was why I advocaated for him starting to take reps at 3B sooner rather than later, and why I mentioned he "MIGHT" have to play DH to start next year until he becomes good enough defensively to play 3B (or LF).

 

[moonslav59]

However, unlike Craig and Castillo, Pablo has enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment, which forces the Sox to either keep him on the major league roster or release him. If the latter, somebody almost certainly would sign him for the minimum and the difference in salary would count against the Sox luxury tax threshold. Either way, I don't how the Sox avoid counting all or most of that contract against the cap.

 

Good point. I'm not sure how that works. Maybe if Pablo refuses a minor league assignment after passing through irrevocable waivers, he may forfeit his big salary.

Not sure.

Good question.

[moonslav59]

Too many players and you didn't even list them all. I continue to believe that they will take care of any pitching issues via the trade route and that they will take care of the position of dh either by using Ramirez there ( which I hope they don't do) or by signing Encarnarcion or a player like him. I'm not a big advocate of stock piling ml ready players just to prove to everyone that you have depth. I'm guessing that the field of candidates for position players gets shortened thru the trade process.

 

Yes, and if Pablo gets traded or DFA'd, then the competition list gets shorter.

 

I doubt Hernandez or Sam Travis seriously compete for a FT job, and I don't see Shaw at DH over HanRam, so the real meat of the competition will probably come down to:

 

LF: Beni, Swihart, Young (vs LHPs)

DH: HanRam, Young (vs LHPs)

3B: Moncada, Shaw

1B: Shaw, HanRam (maybe Swihart, if Beni wins the LF job)

 

I actually think Swihart may be the odd man out and gets traded due to his high value to another team as a catcher, and the squeeze he has at winning another position on this team.

 

,

[Spudboy]

He's already a middle infielder. Doubt he'd be an embarrassment at 3b.

 

Footwork and throws would need work, though. 2nd basemen don't have to throw across the diamond.

[moonslav59]

Footwork and throws would need work, though. 2nd basemen don't have to throw across the diamond.

 

He may need more than that with 37 errors made at his "comfortable" 2B position in about 160 games.

[sk7326]

There also not going to move Shaw to 1b and Ramirez to DH, if Shaw and HanRam are better fielders than Moncada.

 

That was my point.

 

Yes, there are scenarios where playing Moncada at 3B and maybe Young at DH vs LHPs is the best line-up, but I don't see us using HanRam or Shaw at DH, and Moncada at 3B, if they are better fielders than him. My opinion, and it's just an opinion based on what I have read about Moncada's fielding, is that Moncada may take a very long time to pass Shaw/HanRam on defense- "5 tools" not with standing.

 

Always bet on the athlete. He has picked up stuff quickly. Yes, the errors at 2B are a mild concern - errors are a garbage stat, but it is what it is - but he was (if not already) bound to outgrow the position.

 

But the percentages are for an athlete of his caliber to figure it all out.

[illinoisredsox]

He may need more than that with 37 errors made at his "comfortable" 2B position in about 160 games.

 

A big question on that is how many errors were on actual fielding and how many were throwing errors. The latter is more of a concern. You often see inflated error totals due to the relatively poor condition of many minor league infields, especially in the lower minors. That is something none of us will ever know but organization does.

[moonslav59]

Always bet on the athlete. He has picked up stuff quickly. Yes, the errors at 2B are a mild concern - errors are a garbage stat, but it is what it is - but he was (if not already) bound to outgrow the position.

 

But the percentages are for an athlete of his caliber to figure it all out.

 

I'd probably say Moncada could play 2B in the bigs right now, despite making 37 errors in about 160 games on the farm, but that was his true position. It took him 2 years in the minors to get to that point. I'm not so sure he can get to the same level at 3B playing there the rest of this year and maybe through the winter, but maybe he can.

 

I have never said he couldn't. I'm just exploring options, in case he does not meet that threshold of capability on defense at 3B.

[moonslav59]

A big question on that is how many errors were on actual fielding and how many were throwing errors. The latter is more of a concern. You often see inflated error totals due to the relatively poor condition of many minor league infields, especially in the lower minors. That is something none of us will ever know but organization does.

 

True, and I despise using errors to judge a player's defense, but 37 is a heck of a lot.

 

I believe I read somewhere that scouts were saying his defense was moving along "slowly", but other here have said they heard he was advancing quickly on defense.

[moonslav59]

Newsflash:

 

The Red Sox have claimed catcher Bryan Holaday off outright waivers from the Rangers, reports Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald (Twitter link). Texas designated Holaday for assignment on Monday in the wake of its acquisition of Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress from the Brewers.

 

Holaday, 28, was acquired by Texas from the Tigers late in Spring Training and saw significant action early in the season following an injury to backstop Robinson Chirinos. Holaday was quite productive in the month of May but hasn’t hit much outside of that stretch and has a collective .238/.290/.405 slash in 94 plate appearances with Texas this season. Prior to the 2016 campaign, he’d spent his entire career in the Tigers organization, shuffling back and forth between the Majors and minors while serving as a backup to Alex Avila. The presence of James McCann and Detroit’s offseason pickup of Jarrod Saltalamacchia left Holaday without a spot on the big league roster, however, and he’s out of minor league options, which left Detroit with no way to carry him in the Majors.

 

That he’s out of options means he’ll have to go directly onto the 25-man roster for Boston as well, as Holaday cannot be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers. He’s a career .248/.285/.356 hitter with five homers in 376 plate appearances. Holaday has thrown out 30.2 of attempted base thieves over the past three seasons, though he rates as a well below-average framing catcher, per Baseball Prospectus.

- Steve Adams

[illinoisredsox]

True, and I despise using errors to judge a player's defense, but 37 is a heck of a lot.

 

I believe I read somewhere that scouts were saying his defense was moving along "slowly", but other here have said they heard he was advancing quickly on defense.

 

Case in point, for giggles, I looked up Ozzie Smith's minor league fielding stats - he made 23 errors in 65 games for Walla Walla his first year of pro ball. He never played a minor league game again.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'd probably say Moncada could play 2B in the bigs right now, despite making 37 errors in about 160 games on the farm, but that was his true position. It took him 2 years in the minors to get to that point. I'm not so sure he can get to the same level at 3B playing there the rest of this year and maybe through the winter, but maybe he can.

 

I have never said he couldn't. I'm just exploring options, in case he does not meet that threshold of capability on defense at 3B.

 

It all comes down to whether or not the Sox feel he is ready to be a starting positional player by the end of next spring. It won't have anything to do with whether or not he is better than Sandoval, Ramirez, Shaw, etc. defensively, because DH won't be an option.

 

I understand you wanting to get his bat in the line-up and I'm not sure if you've ever played the game before, but it isn't as easy as most people think to be a DH. There is no way that the Sox are going to risk his offensive development by DHing him. It's unheard of for a player his age with his skill set.

 

The Sox are also very careful not to put too much on a young player's plate, which is why Mike Hazen said they wanted him to play 2nd this year. They obviously feel that he is now ready to make the transition to 3rd, and it will be good to get his feet wet over there with a week or two left in the AA season.

Edited August 5, 2016 by Eddy Ballgame

[sk7326]

I'd probably say Moncada could play 2B in the bigs right now, despite making 37 errors in about 160 games on the farm, but that was his true position. It took him 2 years in the minors to get to that point. I'm not so sure he can get to the same level at 3B playing there the rest of this year and maybe through the winter, but maybe he can.

 

I have never said he couldn't. I'm just exploring options, in case he does not meet that threshold of capability on defense at 3B.

 

well the previous experience he had was as a SS (which is not a surprise since that's where your best athletes go). going from the middle to a corner is the easier adjustment than the reverse. (it is why Hanley's misadventures in LF were so surprising - it is hard to picture a SS playing an easier position so incompetently)

[Emp9]

I'm not one for judging players by errors made. I like to look at range and other metrics, but unfortunately, there are none in the minors.

 

I did notice that Moncada has 37 errors in about a full ML seasons worth of play at 2B in the minors (1350 innings).

 

He has improved from 23 in 621 last year to 14 in 776 this year, so maybe I'm wrong about his ability to learn quickly. I was basing my opinion on the fact that he has not done well defensively at a position he was "comfortable" with over 2 seasons in the minors, and now we expect him to get to ML readiness in a few short months.

 

This was why I advocaated for him starting to take reps at 3B sooner rather than later, and why I mentioned he "MIGHT" have to play DH to start next year until he becomes good enough defensively to play 3B (or LF).

 

 

I can't speak to what he's done this year, but last year Moncada's actual Range was great, but he had trouble completing plays after great stops on hard or difficult balls to get to. I'm not sure how much I would count those early errors towards his ... Permanent Record for lack of a better term. How has he fared on errors this season? I'd have to look it up. Been paying attention to the draft, Beni, the trades, & the Sox as a whole, & my fantasy team... Hard to keep track of everybody. And I agree, errors aren't everything, alot of things factor into an error and it can be subjective to the scorer, besides being the lowest common denominator when judging a fielder's abilities. Not to mention one of the only/few things that stand out.

[Emp9]

well the previous experience he had was as a SS (which is not a surprise since that's where your best athletes go). going from the middle to a corner is the easier adjustment than the reverse. (it is why Hanley's misadventures in LF were so surprising - it is hard to picture a SS playing an easier position so incompetently)

 

The older the dog, the harder it is to teach new tricks. What's easier for one may not be that easy for another in every case. I don't hold it against him.

[moonslav59]

It all comes down to whether or not the Sox feel he is ready to be a starting positional player by the end of next spring. It won't have anything to do with whether or not he is better than Sandoval, Ramirez, Shaw, etc. defensively, because DH won't be an option.

 

So you really think they would DH Shaw or HanRam, even if they felt they were significantly better defensively, just so they wouldn't have to DH a 5 tool prospectwith fielding issues?

[moonslav59]

I understand you wanting to get his bat in the line-up and I'm not sure if you've ever played the game before, but it isn't as easy as most people think to be a DH.

 

I played baseball for over 20 years, some of which was organized. I played softball for about 30 years.

 

I never DH'd. I'm not saying it's easy, but I guess you assume it will be easy or easier for Shaw of HanRam- sight unseen.

 

There is no way that the Sox are going to risk his offensive development by DHing him.

It certainly should be their last option, but an option none the less.

 

It's unheard of for a player his age with his skill set.

Not many 5 toll players struggle to learn a position well enough to not be a minus. Their athleticism usually will outweigh other deficiencies to at least make them average to start out.

 

I've never claimed Moncada can NOT be an average defensive 3Bman by the start of next year or by the end of next year, but it is a distinct possibility.

 

If we have a hole at DH next year, and Moncada's bat is ready, I can't see us using significantly inferior bats just to give Moncada extended time to learn 3B.

 

We may sign Encarnacion and the discussion is over: Moncada plays 3B as soon as he's ready and nothing else. "Ready" means as soon as his total package projects to be better than Shaw and/or HanRam.

 

Moncada may be ready as a fielder by opening day, and this discussion was all for naught.

[Eddy Ballgame]

It all comes down to whether or not the Sox feel he is ready to be a starting positional player by the end of next spring. It won't have anything to do with whether or not he is better than Sandoval, Ramirez, Shaw, etc. defensively, because DH won't be an option.

 

So you really think they would DH Shaw or HanRam, even if they felt they were significantly better defensively, just so they wouldn't have to DH a 5 tool prospectwith fielding issues?

 

Without question. Moncada is not tied to either of those two guys. He'll either win a starting position next spring, be in Pawtucket or be traded (extremely unlikely). No team would risk a kid with his potential's development by DHing him. It makes no sense to do that.

 

It's the same with Swihart. He won't be some kind of C, LF, 1B, DH super sub next year, as I noticed you've posted. He came up and played left this year out of necessity. He'll either win a full time position next spring, catch full time in Pawtucket, or be traded. There's no way they'll turn him into a jack of all trades at this stage of his development. It's just not how it works with prospects with such high ceilings.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are also very careful not to put too much on a young player's plate, which is why Mike Hazen said they wanted him to play 2nd this year. They obviously feel that he is now ready to make the transition to 3rd, and it will be good to get his feet wet over there with a week or two left in the AA season.

 

I applaud their foresight and suggested just about this timetable over a month ago. BY the way, the idea was called "silly" and "ridiculous" over and over.

 

I was gladdened to find out Moncada has played 3B in Cuba at an early age. That should help with the transition. I'm glad they started giving him reps at 3B, because I think that's his eventual landing spot. My concern stems from an issue that may not even be an issue, so as I have said, maybe this is all for naught, but I have heard he has struggled to master 2B defensively. Since that has been his position for several years, that concerns me. It should concern everybody, if indeed he is not ML ready at 2B right now. Maybe I'm wrong on this assumption, or I'm wrong that it took him over 3 years to master 2B, but if it's true, do you guys really expect him to be good enough to play 3B in the bigs after 2 weeks of play in AA and maybe some winter ball and ST'ing?

 

I don't want a liability playing 3B with Shaw or HanRam at DH just so we don't break some unseen rule about DH'ing 5 tool prospects.

 

I'm also not envisioning Moncada staying at DH his whole career and hopefully not even for more than a month or two as he improves his ability at 3B in practice.

[moonslav59]

Without question. Moncada is not tied to either of those two guys. He'll either win a starting position next spring, be in Pawtucket or be traded (extremely unlikely). No team would risk a kid with his potential's development by DHing him. It makes no sense to do that.

 

It's the same with Swihart. He won't be some kind of C, LF, 1B, DH super sub next year, as I noticed you've posted. He came up and played left this year out of necessity. He'll either win a full time position next spring, catch full time in Pawtucket, or be traded. There's no way they'll turn him into a jack of all trades at this stage of his development. It's just not how it works with prospects with such high ceilings.

 

They do have a thing called practice before and after games.

 

I admit it's not an ideal set-up, but playing an inferior fielder isn't ideal either. Having an A+ bat at AAA while we struggle offensively on the big club is not ideal either. Trading Moncada would piss me off to no end.

 

Yes, the ideal is Moncada learns to field well enough to be our FT 3Bman next year. This whole scenario is based on what if he's not.

[cp176]

Moncada has also played in the outfield. The Red Sox have in general kept a lot of information in house. Good for them! In order to really know how he is doing in the field, we would have to watch him daily. The number of errors a player makes if just taken in isolation may not be all that telling but it is a significant stat. Taking everything into consideration, a really high number of errors is never a good thing. You lead the league in errors, it is a safe bet that you aren't a very good fielder. I don't think we are going to see him dh but before he plays in the bigs for anybody, he is going to have to be at least adequate in the field. Maybe there is someone here who has seen him play a number of times who could comment on how he looks.

[greenwell]

Newsflash:

 

The Red Sox have claimed catcher Bryan Holaday off outright waivers from the Rangers, reports Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald (Twitter link). Texas designated Holaday for assignment on Monday in the wake of its acquisition of Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress from the Brewers.

 

Holaday, 28, was acquired by Texas from the Tigers late in Spring Training and saw significant action early in the season following an injury to backstop Robinson Chirinos. Holaday was quite productive in the month of May but hasn’t hit much outside of that stretch and has a collective .238/.290/.405 slash in 94 plate appearances with Texas this season. Prior to the 2016 campaign, he’d spent his entire career in the Tigers organization, shuffling back and forth between the Majors and minors while serving as a backup to Alex Avila. The presence of James McCann and Detroit’s offseason pickup of Jarrod Saltalamacchia left Holaday without a spot on the big league roster, however, and he’s out of minor league options, which left Detroit with no way to carry him in the Majors.

 

That he’s out of options means he’ll have to go directly onto the 25-man roster for Boston as well, as Holaday cannot be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers. He’s a career .248/.285/.356 hitter with five homers in 376 plate appearances. Holaday has thrown out 30.2 of attempted base thieves over the past three seasons, though he rates as a well below-average framing catcher, per Baseball Prospectus.

- Steve Adams

 

This brings back the question I asked earlier today. Does anyone know the story with Dan Butler? I remember him being up very briefly a couple of years ago, but don't remember anything about him. He has a .800 OPS this year in Pawtucket. Is he just not a ML caliber catcher from a fielding standpoint?

[Emp9]

Moncada's basic fielding stats:

 

 

[sk7326]

The older the dog, the harder it is to teach new tricks. What's easier for one may not be that easy for another in every case. I don't hold it against him.

 

The history of moving people from tougher positions to easier ones as they age is vast (Stan Musial played 1B fergawdsakes). That he could not begin to cut it in a position that Ryan Klesko managed to only marginally embarass himself doing is rather amazing. As noted earlier this season, Ian Desmond and Alfonso Soriano were signed and move on the exact same pretense.