A Realistic View at 2016

[Kimmi]

Encarnarcion is a no brainer sign. $$$ - sign him unless there is somebody out there just like him. TORP via trade and let the left field situation play out with Swihart and probably Benintendi.

 

I'd love to have him on the team, but it depends on what kind of deal he's looking for. Last I heard he was looking for at least four years. That's crazy talk for a 33 year old player, IMO.

[cp176]

I'd love to have him on the team, but it depends on what kind of deal he's looking for. Last I heard he was looking for at least four years. That's crazy talk for a 33 year old player, IMO.

 

It could be too long. 3 sounds like the max for me. The bigger issue for me is that no matter who they put where, I think that they are going to need a legitimate "power" hitter in the middle of their lineup. Speaking only for myself, I don't see one that I would call the real deal on this current roster. I know that others think that there would be plenty of good hitting here without signing a power bat. I still like that big time h/run threat. Is that old school (fool) or what?

[moonslav59]

He carried the team in April 2013 while Papi was out.

 

He also had some big hits later in the season.

[moonslav59]

It could be too long. 3 sounds like the max for me. The bigger issue for me is that no matter who they put where, I think that they are going to need a legitimate "power" hitter in the middle of their lineup. Speaking only for myself, I don't see one that I would call the real deal on this current roster. I know that others think that there would be plenty of good hitting here without signing a power bat. I still like that big time h/run threat. Is that old school (fool) or what?

 

We are currently 11th in HRs but just a couple HRs from 8th. Without Papi, we'd be a lot lower, but replacing him with a 15-20 HR guy would not drop us that far. Take away about 10 HRS right now and we're 15th or 16th in MLB. I get that it would be worse than that inr eality, because we play in a hitter's park, but I think our youth has a lot of romm fro upward growth in power.

 

With less than a quarter of the season remaining, we have the current players on pace for this....

 

Age Player HR 2B+3B

40 Ortiz 33 48

23 Betts 28 44

26 J B Jr 22 41

23 Bogey 18 33

32 HRam 17 27

32 Pedey 16 33

26 Shaw 16 42

 

pro-rate to 600 PAs:

32 Young 24 48

27 Leon 18 66

28 Holt 15 30

 

We may not need 30 HRs from Encarnacion to replace Papi's power, but replacing his clutch hits is something we will need to discover. Let's see how our kids do in crunch time this fall. Maybe we have someone special on the roster already and don't know it yet.

 

 

[cp176]

A hitter like Encarnarcion has proven that he is already special over the years. I like our young core as much as anyone. I still like at least one true blue, bonafide , without a doubt blaster in the lineup.

[Nick]

I'd love to have him on the team, but it depends on what kind of deal he's looking for. Last I heard he was looking for at least four years. That's crazy talk for a 33 year old player, IMO.

 

Papi is 40

[greenwell]

We are currently 11th in HRs but just a couple HRs from 8th. Without Papi, we'd be a lot lower, but replacing him with a 15-20 HR guy would not drop us that far. Take away about 10 HRS right now and we're 15th or 16th in MLB. I get that it would be worse than that inr eality, because we play in a hitter's park, but I think our youth has a lot of romm fro upward growth in power.

 

With less than a quarter of the season remaining, we have the current players on pace for this....

 

Age Player HR 2B+3B

40 Ortiz 33 48

23 Betts 28 44

26 J B Jr 22 41

23 Bogey 18 33

32 HRam 17 27

32 Pedey 16 33

26 Shaw 16 42

 

pro-rate to 600 PAs:

32 Young 24 48

27 Leon 18 66

28 Holt 15 30

 

We may not need 30 HRs from Encarnacion to replace Papi's power, but replacing his clutch hits is something we will need to discover. Let's see how our kids do in crunch time this fall. Maybe we have someone special on the roster already and don't know it yet.

 

 

 

There's way more than a quarter of the season remaining.

Papi is on pace for 39, Betts for 33, JBJ for 27, Bogaerts for 22, HanRam 20, Shaw and Pedey 19

[moonslav59]

There's way more than a quarter of the season remaining.

Papi is on pace for 39, Betts for 33, JBJ for 27, Bogaerts for 22, HanRam 20, Shaw and Pedey 19

 

My bad.

Yes, there's about 36% of the season remaining.

 

Maybe next year Betts hits 38, JBJ 35, Bogey 28 and Moncada ???

[moonslav59]

A hitter like Encarnarcion has proven that he is already special over the years. I like our young core as much as anyone. I still like at least one true blue, bonafide , without a doubt blaster in the lineup.

 

Would you still want him, if it meant we couldn't afford to get a solid #2 SP'er and we make no changes to our rotation this winter?

[Nick]

Would you still want him, if it meant we couldn't afford to get a solid #2 SP'er and we make no changes to our rotation this winter?

 

Moon I strongly disagree that we can't sign both Encarnacion and afford for a sold #2 SP.......what if its' Sales? He's only owed $12M in 2017. Buchholtz' salary would cover it. Why do you keep saying we can't afford both?

 

We've also taken Castillo out of luxury tax computation and I would argue that Henry is considering that as a sunken cost. (yeah I get the cash flow issue, it's still money out of pocket.....I worked for a French company that revised budgets every quarter...DD is not on the hooks for Castillo, that's what I would be arguing if I'm DD). Ortiz, Koji, Buchholtz, Hanigan all all gone. That's about savings of $40M. The competitive balance limit will probably go as high as $210M; that's $21M increase.

 

There's enough money to get both done.

[moonslav59]

Moon I strongly disagree that we can't sign both Encarnacion and afford for a sold #2 SP.......what if its' Sales? He's only owed $12M in 2017. Buchholtz' salary would cover it. Why do you keep saying we can't afford both?

 

We've also taken Castillo out of luxury tax computation and I would argue that Henry is considering that as a sunken cost. (yeah I get the cash flow issue, it's still money out of pocket.....I worked for a French company that revised budgets every quarter...DD is not on the hooks for Castillo, that's what I would be arguing if I'm DD). Ortiz, Koji, Buchholtz, Hanigan all all gone. That's about savings of $40M. The competitive balance limit will probably go as high as $210M; that's $21M increase.

 

There's enough money to get both done.

 

I think we can too, but we also need 2 strong RP'ers and have some arb additions. There are no great SP'ers on the FA market, soWhat if the only great SP'er we can get without giving up our whole future is a high priced pitcher? What if Encarnacion wants $160M/6?

 

Again, what if we can't afford both (in theory)?

 

Which do you choose?

 

One big plus on trading for Sale or Quintana is that their salary would allow us a lot of financial flexibility not just for this winter, but for 2 or 3 more afterwards!

 

[Nick]

I think we can too, but we also need 2 strong RP'ers and have some arb additions. There are no great SP'ers on the FA market, soWhat if the only great SP'er we can get without giving up our whole future is a high priced pitcher? What if Encarnacion wants $160M/6?

 

Again, what if we can't afford both (in theory)?

 

Which do you choose?

 

One big plus on trading for Sale or Quintana is that their salary would allow us a lot of financial flexibility not just for this winter, but for 2 or 3 more afterwards!

 

 

But the whole premise of acquiring a SP is that there's not a high priced FA available this winter. Only question is how much prospect talent are we willing to give up to acquire someone similar to Chris Sale in terms of ability and reasonable contract.

In essence we are paying not with cash but with talent.

[moonslav59]

Here's how next year's luxury budget looks:

 

$31M Price

$22M Ramirez

$20.6M Porcello

$19M Sandoval (Maybe we can get him off the 40-man luxury budget)

$13.75M Pedroia

$10.5M Kimbrel

$6.5M Young

$133.5M Subtotal

 

Options:

$13.5M Buchholz ($500K buyout)

$3.75M Hanigan ($800K buyout)

$0 to 16.75M Subtotal (Let's assume $0, although we may keep Hanigan, especially if we trade Swihart.)

 

Arbitrations (Est.):

$5.0M Bogaerts (1st of 3 arbs)

$3.7M Bradley (1st of 4 arbs)

$2.7M Pomeranz (2nd of 3rd arb)

$2.6M Kelly (2nd of 3 arbs)

$1.6M Abad (2nd of 3 arbs)

$1.4M Ross (2nd of 3 arbs)

$1.0M Holt (1st of 3 arbs)

$900K Rutledge (1st of 3 arbs)

$900K Layne (1st of 4 arbs)

$800K Workman (1st of 3 arbs)

$700K O'Sullivan (1st of 3 arbs)

$700K MMartinez (1st of 3 arbs)

$22.5M subtotal

 

 

21 Non-arb players listed by seniority on 40 man roster (avg salary of about $530K)

Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, T Shaw, ERod, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Hernandez, Smith, Elias, Cuevas, Leon

$11M subtotal

 

Rule 5 Eligible: Luis Ax. Basabe, Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Allen Craig, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Angelo LeClerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Kyle Martin, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Robby Scott, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte, Luis Ysla

 

Total Estimated Luxury Tax Budget for 2017:

 

$167M

 

Add the $13M player benefits cost...

 

Est 2017 Budget Total:

 

$180M

 

If the limit goes up to $210M, we'll have about $30M to fill all these slots:

 

DH:

 

SP2:

 

RP2:

 

RP4:

 

 

LF? 3B? 1B?

 

It might not be as easy as many think to fill all these holes.

 

 

Edited August 1, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

But the whole premise of acquiring a SP is that there's not a high priced FA available this winter. Only question is how much prospect talent are we willing to give up to acquire someone similar to Chris Sale in terms of ability and reasonable contract.

In essence we are paying not with cash but with talent.

 

Perhaps my assumption is wrong, but I am going on the premise that we will not be over the luxury tax by much at all next year, if any.

 

I know that giving up prospect talent lessens our chances to save budget money in the future with low cost young players that produce like high-priced players, but getting Sale at $6.5M a year luxury tax hit instead of the open- market cost of maybe $30M is a HUGE "savings".

[moonslav59]

Perhaps my assumption is wrong, but I am going on the premise that we will not be over the luxury tax by much at all next year, if any.

 

I know that giving up prospect talent lessens our chances to save budget money in the future with low cost young players that produce like high-priced players, but getting Sale at $6.5M a year luxury tax hit instead of the open- market cost of maybe $30M is a HUGE "savings".

 

 

The difference is probablky close to what Encarnacion will get per year.

 

That was my point.

[oldtimer]

Here's how next year's luxury budget looks:

 

$31M Price

$22M Ramirez

$20.6M Porcello

$19M Sandoval (Maybe we can get him off the 40-man luxury budget)

$13.75M Pedroia

$10.5M Kimbrel

$6.5M Young

$133.5M Subtotal

 

Options:

$13.5M Buchholz ($500K buyout)

$3.75M Hanigan ($800K buyout)

$0 to 16.75M Subtotal (Let's assume $0, although we may keep Hanigan, especially if we trade Swihart.)

 

Arbitrations (Est.):

$5.0M Bogaerts (1st of 3 arbs)

$3.7M Bradley (1st of 4 arbs)

$2.7M Pomeranz (2nd of 3rd arb)

$2.6M Kelly (2nd of 3 arbs)

$1.6M Abad (2nd of 3 arbs)

$1.4M Ross (2nd of 3 arbs)

$1.0M Holt (1st of 3 arbs)

$900K Rutledge (1st of 3 arbs)

$900K Layne (1st of 4 arbs)

$800K Workman (1st of 3 arbs)

$700K O'Sullivan (1st of 3 arbs)

$700K MMartinez (1st of 3 arbs)

$22.5M subtotal

 

 

21 Non-arb players listed by seniority on 40 man roster (avg salary of about $530K)

Wright, Vazquez, Brentz, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, T Shaw, ERod, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Hernandez, Smith, Elias, Cuevas, Leon

$11M subtotal

 

Rule 5 Eligible: Luis Ax. Basabe, Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Allen Craig, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Angelo LeClerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Kyle Martin, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Robby Scott, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte, Luis Ysla

 

Total Estimated Luxury Tax Budget for 2017:

 

$167M

 

Add the $13M player benefits cost...

 

Est 2017 Budget Total:

 

$180M

 

If the limit goes up to $210M, we'll have about $30M to fill all these slots:

 

DH:

 

SP2:

 

RP2:

 

RP4:

 

 

LF? 3B? 1B?

 

It might not be as easy as many think to fill all these holes.

 

 

 

Your much better at coming up with the price of players to fill some of our needs (as you stated them) for next season. I would think we can fill our LF, 3rd base. 1st base needs from a combination of Shaw, Benintendi and Moncada and still keep Young as a platoon outfielder and for flexibility should we sustain outfield injuries next season. It the Red Sox thinking is along that line then Hanley is available for DH although I don't see him as nearly the power threat or clutch hitter that we will be losing in Ortiz. I know it is unlikely that we could move Hanley while signing Encarnacion but one can dream.

 

As far as RP under control, our pen has been getting better due to DD dealing this July. I know we have Workman rehabbing. Maybe we can get one of our RP's from our minor league organization.

 

That still leaves a tall order to add a quality SP and RP from the market. Big bucks even if we can make a deal.

[moonslav59]

Your much better at coming up with the price of players to fill some of our needs (as you stated them) for next season. I would think we can fill our LF, 3rd base. 1st base needs from a combination of Shaw, Benintendi and Moncada and still keep Young as a platoon outfielder and for flexibility should we sustain outfield injuries next season. It the Red Sox thinking is along that line then Hanley is available for DH although I don't see him as nearly the power threat or clutch hitter that we will be losing in Ortiz. I know it is unlikely that we could move Hanley while signing Encarnacion but one can dream.

 

As far as RP under control, our pen has been getting better due to DD dealing this July. I know we have Workman rehabbing. Maybe we can get one of our RP's from our minor league organization.

 

That still leaves a tall order to add a quality SP and RP from the market. Big bucks even if we can make a deal.

 

There's a few things that can happen:

 

1) We could end up DFA'ing Sandoval, if he comes into camp with no chance of winning a FT position. Nobody would claim him with that $19M contract, so he'd join castillo and Craig on the no luxury tax budget list. That $19M would allow us to stay under the luxury tax, but Henry still has to pay him, instead of a tax, so I don't see this as a major factor. (We might trade him and pay all but $5M-$10M of his deal and at least save that much or swap him for someone like Jamie Shields.)

 

2) We could trade HanRam, since he only has 2 years left, and he just had a much better year than 2015. We'd probably have to pay $7-12M of his $22M/yr deal, but that would save us $10-15M--an amount that would be very helpful. The problem is that between TShaw, Travis, Moncada, Hernandez, Holt, Marrero and maybe Swihart, we might be severely lacking at the corner IF positions so that an Encarnacion addition may not make-up for that loss, let alone part of the loss of Papi.

 

3) We could trade for a big bat that costs less than Encarnacion.

 

4) We could trade for an inexpensive SP'er this winter (Sale/Quintana/Gray?)

 

[greenwell]

Your much better at coming up with the price of players to fill some of our needs (as you stated them) for next season. I would think we can fill our LF, 3rd base. 1st base needs from a combination of Shaw, Benintendi and Moncada and still keep Young as a platoon outfielder and for flexibility should we sustain outfield injuries next season. It the Red Sox thinking is along that line then Hanley is available for DH although I don't see him as nearly the power threat or clutch hitter that we will be losing in Ortiz. I know it is unlikely that we could move Hanley while signing Encarnacion but one can dream.

 

As far as RP under control, our pen has been getting better due to DD dealing this July. I know we have Workman rehabbing. Maybe we can get one of our RP's from our minor league organization.

 

That still leaves a tall order to add a quality SP and RP from the market. Big bucks even if we can make a deal.

 

I would agree on the clutch hitter part, but I don't know if anyone can match ortiz there. I'm not so sure that Hanley can't give us the power. Although it's a relatively small sample size, Hanley has an OPS of over 1.000 with the redsox when he's the DH.

[moonslav59]

I would agree on the clutch hitter part, but I don't know if anyone can match ortiz there. I'm not so sure that Hanley can't give us the power. Although it's a relatively small sample size, Hanley has an OPS of over 1.000 with the redsox when he's the DH.

 

"Clutch hitting" is not something you can identify as a skill, let alone go out and trade for it or draft it or sign it as a FA.

 

We have to hope some one or a few of our players take up the slack. After all, we have won some playoff series without Papi doing anything spectacular.

 

[moonslav59]

Let's say we hit pay dirt and fill our LF need with Beni and our 3B need with Moncada. If we want to add a SP'er, 2 RP'ers and a DH and stay near the luxury tax limit, we will have about $30M to spend (assuming the limit goes up to $210M). Two decent RP'ers might cost us $10M a year combined, if we're lucky. I suppose we could hope to fill one RP'er slot from within the system (Barnes, Hembree, Ross, Layne as our 4-7 RP'ers behind Kimbrell, Smith and 1 acquisition) at a cost of $6M. That leaves $24M for a SP'er and DH (or 1B if HanRam moves to DH).

 

One reason I liked the idea of getting Sale or Quintana is that Sale's contract only counts as $6.5M towards the luxury tax budget. That would help our budget a lot for 3 more years.

[cp176]

Would you still want him, if it meant we couldn't afford to get a solid #2 SP'er and we make no changes to our rotation this winter?

 

Couple things. I think that we already have a couple of number 2's. I would like to see a #1 totr young pitcher acquired via trade. I believe that the payroll of this team although not endless is still such that a hitter, a real power hitter like an Encarnarcion can be easily acquired. As I have said for quite a while now, i think that Swihart certainly can transition to left field. if he can't, Benintendi will get his chance. Swihart's days as a catcher might be over regardless of where we all think that he should be.

[Kimmi]

Papi is 40

 

I realize that. There are going to be some players who defy the odds, and Edwin might be one of them, but generally speaking, hitters are well into their declining years at age 33.

[moonslav59]

Couple things. I think that we already have a couple of number 2's. I would like to see a #1 totr young pitcher acquired via trade. I believe that the payroll of this team although not endless is still such that a hitter, a real power hitter like an Encarnarcion can be easily acquired. As I have said for quite a while now, i think that Swihart certainly can transition to left field. if he can't, Benintendi will get his chance. Swihart's days as a catcher might be over regardless of where we all think that he should be.

 

I think we may need Swihart (and others) in a trade for a young number 1, especially if we are counting on Moncada for the future at 3B and Beni in LF. We could trade Beni and others and keep Swihart for LF and 3rd string catcher.

 

I mention a "number 2", because I want to keep Bogey, Betts, JBJ and Moncada. If we keep one from Beni and Swihart, I don't think we can get a "young ace" for Beni, Devers, Kopech and Travis.

[moonslav59]

I realize that. There are going to be some players who defy the odds, and Edwin might be one of them, but generally speaking, hitters are well into their declining years at age 33.

 

Even Papi declined at ages 32 and 33, but then in a most unusual turn of events, hes' had a second career from age 34-40.

[a700hitter]

Even Papi declined at ages 32 and 33, but then in a most unusual turn of events, hes' had a second career from age 34-40.

Isnt that when he tore the sheathing in his wrist. It took some time to get over that injury. He didn't decline. He was hurt.

[oldtimer]

There's a few things that can happen:

 

1) We could end up DFA'ing Sandoval, if he comes into camp with no chance of winning a FT position. Nobody would claim him with that $19M contract, so he'd join castillo and Craig on the no luxury tax budget list. That $19M would allow us to stay under the luxury tax, but Henry still has to pay him, instead of a tax, so I don't see this as a major factor. (We might trade him and pay all but $5M-$10M of his deal and at least save that much or swap him for someone like Jamie Shields.)

 

2) We could trade HanRam, since he only has 2 years left, and he just had a much better year than 2015. We'd probably have to pay $7-12M of his $22M/yr deal, but that would save us $10-15M--an amount that would be very helpful. The problem is that between TShaw, Travis, Moncada, Hernandez, Holt, Marrero and maybe Swihart, we might be severely lacking at the corner IF positions so that an Encarnacion addition may not make-up for that loss, let alone part of the loss of Papi.

 

3) We could trade for a big bat that costs less than Encarnacion.

 

4) We could trade for an inexpensive SP'er this winter (Sale/Quintana/Gray?)

 

 

I think Sandoval's time in a Red Sox uniform is over and we have to look at his contract as a sunken cost.

 

I have not been impressed with Hanley. He is so hit and miss that I think we can do much better. If we could trade him and eat part of his contract, I would be for that. TShaw has the possibility of improvement as he is early in his career and he is Hanley's equal at ist defensively. Travis is another intriguing possibility but he has to come back from injury and show he can play at a major league level, something TShaw has already done. Moncada at third is the likely choice of management. Whether he makes it remains to be determined. I sure many other clubs would love to have our problem with finding him a position. I would use Holt and Hernandez as utility players as you never know when our infielders might need rest or get injured. I do think we need to trade for or FA sign a quality power bat for DH, whether he be Encarnacion or another possibility. Probably no one can match our loss with Ortiz leaving.

 

With 5 current good starting pitchers, perhaps we can get a #1 in the FA market. We would need a #1 to go into any playoff race with an expectation of being successful. We should continue to strengthen our pitching development capability to see if we can develop another of our own kids. Other organizations are doing it so why can't we?

[Nick]

There's not a high priced SP available this winter....THAT HAS BEEN THE PREMISE OF ENTIRE DISCUSSION FOR PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. Why would you factor in a high salary for acquiring top of line SP when there's none available? Thus bulk of underspend can go towards Encarnacion. Now if some $30M per year starter becomes available, then its another discussion.

 

This is why we need to mix in team controlled players such as Benintendi and Moncada. With Encarnacion, Bee Boys, Pedey and Hanley, we can carry Benintendi and Moncada. Obviously Moncada has to show that he can play adequate defense at 3B.

[Nick]

Dombrowski said the price tag for quality starting pitching had not come down since last November, when he initially balked at acquiring a starter via trade. He didn't want to move any more of his elite prospects, characterizing himself as "extremely" reluctant to move Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi.

"These guys are special players, and they're not far from the big leagues, either," he said. "You know when you talk to other clubs and people offer you good big-league players for them. But I do think we feel we have a club that can not only win now, but we want to be good for years to come. They're a really important part of what we're going to do."

 

 

Atta boy Dave..

[moonslav59]

Isnt that when he tore the sheathing in his wrist. It took some time to get over that injury. He didn't decline. He was hurt.

 

The injury probably had something to do with it, but injuries are part of the equation of decline in players going beyond age 32.

[StephenCurry30]

I don't think you can say he declined when he had an injury and returned to normal and continued his usual stellar seasons. a down year is more appropriate term, a decline usually means a downward trend.