Ortiz to retire after 2016

[Kimmi]

That is about as weird a reading of my last post as i could possibly have imagined.

 

As for the importance of lineups, it really depends on the players you have. If you have a good HR power bat for example and you set him up to come up too often with nobody on, you are just asking for it. Nobody wins games on 1 run HR's. 1 run HR's are just a means to lose. Nobody fears them...nobody cares about them. A pitcher will happily give 1 or even more than 1 up during the course of a game especially in the AL where it is particularly meaningless.

 

Which is precisely why you don't put someone like Ortiz in the #3 hole.

[Bellhorn04]

Which is precisely why you don't put someone like Ortiz in the #3 hole.

 

But from quick research I've done on the career splits of leadoff hitter types vs. 3/4 hitter types, the leadoff hitter is going to have a much higher % of PA's with nobody on base. It looks like about 60% vs. about 50%. Which makes sense because the leadoff hitter is guaranteed to have one PA with nobody on every single game.

[User Name]

But from quick research I've done on the career splits of leadoff hitter types vs. 3/4 hitter types, the leadoff hitter is going to have a much higher % of PA's with nobody on base. It looks like about 60% vs. about 50%. Which makes sense because the leadoff hitter is guaranteed to have one PA with nobody on every single game.

 

You are looking at the the issue from a different perspective.

 

What's being said is that you put your best hitter (and by best, it's the guy with the highest OBP) in the #1 spot, because there's an extremely strong correlation between getting a guy on base leading off an inning and scoring runs. What Kimmi in particular is debating is the value of having that hitter batting 3rd, when it's a lot harder to score a run if said hitter gets on with 2 outs and no one on.

 

Although I don't completely adhere to her ideas, I see what she's saying. In my opinion, you should put two high-OBP contact guys one and two (Betts and Xander) followed by your best all-around hitter (OBP + SLG + speed, or Pedroia) followed by your biggest masher (Ortiz) and guys with the ability to produce runs (Hanley) then figure out the rest of the lineup by splits/overall hitting ability. Then again, that's just how I see it.

[Kimmi]

But from quick research I've done on the career splits of leadoff hitter types vs. 3/4 hitter types, the leadoff hitter is going to have a much higher % of PA's with nobody on base. It looks like about 60% vs. about 50%. Which makes sense because the leadoff hitter is guaranteed to have one PA with nobody on every single game.

 

UN pretty much explained the reasoning behind putting your best hitter in terms of OBP in the leadoff spot. The best hitter in terms of power (Papi) should bat 4th. If you put your best hitter 1st, chances are that the % of PAs that the 4 hitter comes up with runners on base will be even higher.

 

Another key factor in having the best hitter in the leadoff spot is that he will get more PAs than he would being in the #3 spot.

[Bellhorn04]

This is true, but on average, the #3 batter still comes up with 2 outs and 0 on more than any other batting position. Some of that is probably due to managers insisting on having speed in the leadoff spot over OBP.

 

This is the part that still baffles me a little.

 

If you did put high OBP guys in the first two spots, would the #3 hitter still come up with 2 outs and 0 on more than any other position?

[User Name]

As I explained before, no. If you have two .350+ OBP guys in the one and two spots, the three hole hitter will end with a bases empty, no out situation in the first inning less than 50% of the time.

 

Ask the 2006 Cardinals, since that's what what with David Eckstein and pre-suck Chris Duncan at the top of their order.

[a700hitter]

This is the part that still baffles me a little.

 

If you did put high OBP guys in the first two spots, would the #3 hitter still come up with 2 outs and 0 on more than any other position?

This ideal batting order is being put forth as a fact based on statistical analysis, but as it has been pointed out, it has not been tried by a manager. There is no way to understand how such a change would affect the dynamics of the game, which can't be modeled with statistical analysis until managers start doing it.

[User Name]

Except Tony La Russa did.

[jung]

There is a study out there that claims there is a subtle shift going on away from hitting a team's best hitter 3rd mainly toward 4th but partially toward 2nd. The 2 hitter gets somewhere between 15-20 more AB's than the 3 but the 4 gets far more RBI ops than either and the 4 hole is where the biggest money players hit even now because of their RBI ops and success. It points out that in 2013 9 of baseballs top 15 teams put their best hitter in the 4. Looking back, I am not sure that we will be able to detect much of an effect unless teams truly only get down to one real power hitter in their order. In that instance your best hitter might also be your only real power hitter.

 

The other thing that probably needs to be considered is DH vs no DH ball. NL teams have to build their offensive effort away from the 9 hole as there is no hitter at all waiting down there and NL pitchers work the opposing order toward that free out they are going to get at the 9. That pushes the best a team has farther up the order and away from that free out at 9. AL teams can smooth their offensive assets more.

 

As to protecting a hitter in the order and partly to concur with 700's post, as I stated earlier I think you see much less of it now because pitchers more often than not go after everybody in the batting order. They seldom pitch around anybody except an 8 hole hitter in the NL at times. What with the advances made in pen construction, if your pitcher empties his tank on the opponent's most dangerous hitter, so be it. Take your out, pull the pitcher and start the line of 95 mph arms moving. But a decision to pitch around a hot hitter is situational baseball. It happens within the context of a specific game. That is anathema to how statistics are constructed as they are most often constructed around what happens most of the time. Well what happens most of the time is small consolation when you are watching your best RBI chance trotting down to 1st having just been walked, the guy can't run for beans and there is a huge drop off to the guy hitting behind him. Point being that the stat is not very meaningful in this context. I would have to guess that last year I saw a middle of the order bat pitched around not more than once every 150-200 total PA's. Figuring 40 hitters a game, that is only once every 4-5 games or so. Even with that it happens more at the end of a season than early in a season, so even coming up with any number would require some smoothing. But it is still small consolation when you lose the opportunity to have your best RBI chance swing the bat and you know it.

 

As for whether managers should ignore OBP for speed at the top, I simply don't think smart managers do that anyway. Good teams regularly feature a 350+ OBP hitter at the top. What are you people looking for......a 400 OBP? Good luck with that one! You won't find many. As for speed, some teams can really use speed in their lineup but it is more the impact of dead slow that hurts a lineup. That is not the same thing. I can remember when Detroit had all these great hitters but their offense completely bogged down when Jackson was sitting because he was the only guy that could move at all and no matter how good those hitters were they often singled.....and then what? Your team runs out of outs before it can move enough runs across the plate too many times. The 2015 Sox had a similar problem in that once you got past Mookie the few guys with average speed like XB were overwhelmed by the guys that are below average or dead slow. Pedroia is now a tick below average. Hanley is now only average. Ortiz and Panda are dead slow and batting Panda high in the order right in the middle of everything killed this already slow lineup even if he got a hit. JBJ is below average. Swihart is above average for a catcher which means he has average speed. Castillo is speedy but can't get on. XB has according to his own words been working on his speed and base running this off season. A good thing. He is I suspect expecting to make more appearances higher in the order, right in the middle of everything pushing fat Panda down farther.....where he belongs. If XB can even make a small improvement what it really does is moves one more guy positive and better offsets what is a slow lineup especially when you consider where he is likely to be in the order. Now that I think about it, maybe one reason Vaz has lost 25 lbs is an effort to move from slow to average in speed again as a means to get more guys to the good side of the ledger.

Edited February 1, 2016 by jung

[mvp 78]

The difference between 2 and 3 is about 18 at bats a year NOT 15 - 20%.

[User Name]

Also, jbj has below average speed? Seriously, please stop making s*** up.

[jung]

Your right MVP, its 20 MORE, not 20%. I meant to go back and correct that and did not get to it...thanks!

[a700hitter]

The whole discussion of the perfect batting order is like trying to grab onto jello. The ynamics of the game means a lot. Putting the stats in a computer and crunching the numbers to come up with the perfect batting order can't take the dynamics of the game into account. The best hitters need to be bunched together at the top of the order to get them the most ABs. The precise order probably doesn't matter much. This theory of batting your 5th best hitter #3 is a theory and that is it. Look at the Mets last year. Before they got Cespedes, they didn't even have 5 good hitters. The result of applying the theory to that team might have had Flores batting 3rd. That wouldn't work.

[jung]

I agree with that 700. I am really not convinced that outside of looking at a specific player stats they really do much for you. They are great for looking at a specific player and surely when making decisions about a specific player. But IMO all of these compilations are for the most part nonsense. Maybe they are useful for a Fantasy League player. I would not know. But they are pretty close to meaningless otherwise. Its a house of cards IMO. Made for a decent movie but what has Oakland won?

 

Actually it does not matter the environment, baseball or bricklaying, the more you compile from the core data, the farther you get from an answer that is reliable or relevant and in some cases you get to a point where there is no relevance at all. I fully expect one day to see an analysis on statistics released with a margin for error +/- 50% on the number and people swearing by it!

Edited February 1, 2016 by jung

[Kimmi]

This is the part that still baffles me a little.

 

If you did put high OBP guys in the first two spots, would the #3 hitter still come up with 2 outs and 0 on more than any other position?

 

Yes, you will. The research is based not only on thousands of actual games that have been played, but also on countless simulations that are done with every possible line up configuration imaginable. Even with your best OBP guys in the #1 and #2 spots, you still don't want your best hitter batting 3rd.

[Kimmi]

This ideal batting order is being put forth as a fact based on statistical analysis, but as it has been pointed out, it has not been tried by a manager. There is no way to understand how such a change would affect the dynamics of the game, which can't be modeled with statistical analysis until managers start doing it.

 

You can continue to not buy into data that doesn't support your opinion, and I will continue to think of you as a traditionalist.

[Kimmi]

There is a study out there that claims there is a subtle shift going on away from hitting a team's best hitter 3rd mainly toward 4th but partially toward 2nd. The 2 hitter gets somewhere between 15-20 more AB's than the 3 but the 4 gets far more RBI ops than either and the 4 hole is where the biggest money players hit even now because of their RBI ops and success. It points out that in 2013 9 of baseballs top 15 teams put their best hitter in the 4. Looking back, I am not sure that we will be able to detect much of an effect unless teams truly only get down to one real power hitter in their order. In that instance your best hitter might also be your only real power hitter.

 

The other thing that probably needs to be considered is DH vs no DH ball. NL teams have to build their offensive effort away from the 9 hole as there is no hitter at all waiting down there and NL pitchers work the opposing order toward that free out they are going to get at the 9. That pushes the best a team has farther up the order and away from that free out at 9. AL teams can smooth their offensive assets more.

 

As to protecting a hitter in the order and partly to concur with 700's post, as I stated earlier I think you see much less of it now because pitchers more often than not go after everybody in the batting order. They seldom pitch around anybody except an 8 hole hitter in the NL at times. What with the advances made in pen construction, if your pitcher empties his tank on the opponent's most dangerous hitter, so be it. Take your out, pull the pitcher and start the line of 95 mph arms moving. But a decision to pitch around a hot hitter is situational baseball. It happens within the context of a specific game. That is anathema to how statistics are constructed as they are most often constructed around what happens most of the time. Well what happens most of the time is small consolation when you are watching your best RBI chance trotting down to 1st having just been walked, the guy can't run for beans and there is a huge drop off to the guy hitting behind him. Point being that the stat is not very meaningful in this context. I would have to guess that last year I saw a middle of the order bat pitched around not more than once every 150-200 total PA's. Figuring 40 hitters a game, that is only once every 4-5 games or so. Even with that it happens more at the end of a season than early in a season, so even coming up with any number would require some smoothing. But it is still small consolation when you lose the opportunity to have your best RBI chance swing the bat and you know it.

 

As for whether managers should ignore OBP for speed at the top, I simply don't think smart managers do that anyway. Good teams regularly feature a 350+ OBP hitter at the top. What are you people looking for......a 400 OBP? Good luck with that one! You won't find many. As for speed, some teams can really use speed in their lineup but it is more the impact of dead slow that hurts a lineup. That is not the same thing. I can remember when Detroit had all these great hitters but their offense completely bogged down when Jackson was sitting because he was the only guy that could move at all and no matter how good those hitters were they often singled.....and then what? Your team runs out of outs before it can move enough runs across the plate too many times. The 2015 Sox had a similar problem in that once you got past Mookie the few guys with average speed like XB were overwhelmed by the guys that are below average or dead slow. Pedroia is now a tick below average. Hanley is now only average. Ortiz and Panda are dead slow and batting Panda high in the order right in the middle of everything killed this already slow lineup even if he got a hit. JBJ is below average. Swihart is above average for a catcher which means he has average speed. Castillo is speedy but can't get on. XB has according to his own words been working on his speed and base running this off season. A good thing. He is I suspect expecting to make more appearances higher in the order, right in the middle of everything pushing fat Panda down farther.....where he belongs. If XB can even make a small improvement what it really does is moves one more guy positive and better offsets what is a slow lineup especially when you consider where he is likely to be in the order. Now that I think about it, maybe one reason Vaz has lost 25 lbs is an effort to move from slow to average in speed again as a means to get more guys to the good side of the ledger.

 

Jung, I would really like to respond to you, but seriously, I can't when you write a novel like this.

[Kimmi]

The whole discussion of the perfect batting order is like trying to grab onto jello. The ynamics of the game means a lot. Putting the stats in a computer and crunching the numbers to come up with the perfect batting order can't take the dynamics of the game into account. The best hitters need to be bunched together at the top of the order to get them the most ABs. The precise order probably doesn't matter much. This theory of batting your 5th best hitter #3 is a theory and that is it. Look at the Mets last year. Before they got Cespedes, they didn't even have 5 good hitters. The result of applying the theory to that team might have had Flores batting 3rd. That wouldn't work.

 

I have said many times that batting order doesn't matter much, and making a change like switching your 3 and 4 hitters might amount to one run over a full season. I have also said that batting order makes such little difference that managers are better off placing a batter where he feels most comfortable, and constructing a R-L-R-L lineup, mostly to disallow a LOOGY to pitch to more than one batter. In other words, the stat geeks are telling managers to forego the stats and go with the human element or "dynamics" instead. Imagine that.

 

Just to be clear though, that recommendation is not because the data is faulty or untrue. It's because batting order makes such little difference, especially when managers are not willing to create a truly optimal lineup, ie batting someone like Youkilis in the leadoff spot.

 

Also it should be noted that managers really aren't giving much consideration to the "comfort" of the players in regard to where they bat. Managers are constantly changing lineups.

[Kimmi]

I agree with that 700. I am really not convinced that outside of looking at a specific player stats they really do much for you. They are great for looking at a specific player and surely when making decisions about a specific player. But IMO all of these compilations are for the most part nonsense. Maybe they are useful for a Fantasy League player. I would not know. But they are pretty close to meaningless otherwise. Its a house of cards IMO. Made for a decent movie but what has Oakland won?

 

Actually it does not matter the environment, baseball or bricklaying, the more you compile from the core data, the farther you get from an answer that is reliable or relevant and in some cases you get to a point where there is no relevance at all. I fully expect one day to see an analysis on statistics released with a margin for error +/- 50% on the number and people swearing by it!

 

It is interesting to note that projections and updated projections beat seasonal performance to date at any point in the season.

 

In other words, if you want to know how a player is likely to do for the remainder of the season, look at his updated projections, not at what he has done so far that season.

[a700hitter]

You can continue to not buy into data that doesn't support your opinion, and I will continue to think of you as a traditionalist.

Stats change my mind if they are compelling. Until managers start doing these things, they are just theory based on stats. Stats that emanate from actual implementation of a theory are more compelling. For example, stats about shifts meant nothing to me until managers starting utilizing shifts. Once they started using shifts, the stats reflected the dynamic of the hitters response. As of now, hitters are unwilling to adjust. Edited February 2, 2016 by a700hitter

[mvp 78]

Jung, I would really like to respond to you, but seriously, I can't when you write a novel like this.

 

His specialty.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, you will. The research is based not only on thousands of actual games that have been played, but also on countless simulations that are done with every possible line up configuration imaginable. Even with your best OBP guys in the #1 and #2 spots, you still don't want your best hitter batting 3rd.

 

The only logical explanation for this is that it will still happen a lot in the first inning, even with high OBP guys hitting first and second.

[cp176]

You are looking at the the issue from a different perspective.

 

What's being said is that you put your best hitter (and by best, it's the guy with the highest OBP) in the #1 spot, because there's an extremely strong correlation between getting a guy on base leading off an inning and scoring runs. What Kimmi in particular is debating is the value of having that hitter batting 3rd, when it's a lot harder to score a run if said hitter gets on with 2 outs and no one on.

 

Although I don't completely adhere to her ideas, I see what she's saying. In my opinion, you should put two high-OBP contact guys one and two (Betts and Xander) followed by your best all-around hitter (OBP + SLG + speed, or Pedroia) followed by your biggest masher (Ortiz) and guys with the ability to produce runs (Hanley) then figure out the rest of the lineup by splits/overall hitting ability. Then again, that's just how I see it.

 

I think traditionally (I don't really like to use that word here) that is the way lineups have been put together. In general, talent hits nearer the top of the order. If your first two high OBP hitters can run and move runners along in any way possible, I would think that is a plus. Who hits where may not be as important to some as it is to others but in an era where pitching importance keeps gaining steam and the use of artificial substances might be somewhat behind us, I would think that most teams would want to score as many runs as they could possibly score as early as they could score them. My RBI producers would still be in the middle of my lineup and not at the very top.

[Kimmi]

Stats change my mind if they are compelling. Until managers start doing these things, they are just theory based on stats. Stats that emanate from actual implementation of a theory are more compelling. For example, stats about shifts meant nothing to me until managers starting utilizing shifts. Once they started using shifts, the stats reflected the dynamic of the hitters response. As of now, hitters are unwilling to adjust.

 

That's the thing. If you don't agree with the idea, you won't find the stats compelling no matter how much data is out there, and there is quite a bit. It's the same traditional thinking that most managers have.

[a700hitter]

That's the thing. If you don't agree with the idea, you won't find the stats compelling no matter how much data is out there, and there is quite a bit. It's the same traditional thinking that most managers have.

I just used an example of where the stats have changed my mind--- the use of the shift. Hitters just have not shown any inclination to adjust to it.

 

As for there being a lot of data on batting order, you are the one that has said that managers won't use it, so how is there a lot of data on it?

[Redsoxgirl51282]

They just released more oct 2nd tickets and within about 5min they were gone again.

[Kimmi]

I just used an example of where the stats have changed my mind--- the use of the shift. Hitters just have not shown any inclination to adjust to it.

 

As for there being a lot of data on batting order, you are the one that has said that managers won't use it, so how is there a lot of data on it?

 

They use data from all of the games that have already been played. They know the run expectancy of each of the 24 base/out states, and they know the average number of runs produced by each event (single, double, etc.) from each batting spot.

[Kimmi]

They just released more oct 2nd tickets and within about 5min they were gone again.

 

I am sure that it is very difficult to get tickets to that series.

[Redsoxgirl51282]

I am sure that it is very difficult to get tickets to that series.

I ended up getting mine of stub hub because I knew it was gonna be a crap shoot just to get them from the sox. I have been telling people buy them now because later on as it gets closer it will be harder to get tickets for that game and the prices will be a lot higher.

[Thunder]

The only series for me this year that is a must is Aug 12-14 vs Arizona. AJ's finally coming to down. He recently donated a jersey to my school. I stare at it every morning, and think about him every time I stand in the outfield during a game.