The search for an ace

[Palodios]

Iwakuma still has a draft pick attached.

 

My guess is that this pulls him back to the Seattle.

 

Yep, back to Seattle.

[SoxHop]

So, I've done a lot of research on Porcello ever since Gammons came out with the comments that Brian Bannister has made alterations to his pitch mix. You can certainly see how his pitch mix changed from April - July vs Aug/Sept.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outco...FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016

 

Anyway, post DL stint, when he changed his pitch mix, he posted a 3.14/2.96/2.96 ERA/FIP/xFIP. Unfortunately, that only spanned about 57.1 IP, so I wanted to do a little more digging.

 

I grabbed Porcello's pitch mix from Brooks from his career game log and lined it up with his game log from Fangraphs, which allowed me to filter on his results by pitch mix. The results? Pretty encouraging.

 

Filtered on the following (all consistent with post DL usage):

4 SM FB: 12-23%

2 SM FB: 40-60%

Curveball: 5-14%

 

Cutter, Change, and Slider all didn't change by any kind of a significant margin.

EDIT: To clarify on his Change, once the 4sm, 2sm, and Curveball were all filtered, the remaining results of his change (which did see an increase in usage, but ranged from 7%-25% during those post DL starts) were all consistent with the usage in his post-DL starts (i.e., they were all within the 7-25% usage range), thus no filter needed, if that makes sense

 

Career Results:

 

IP 159.00

K/9 6.96

BB/9 2.04

ERA 3.85

xFIP 3.55

 

This, however, goes back to when he was called up too early, and natural progression with age, I thought, should make these results even better.

 

2012-2015:

 

IP 130.00

K/9 6.99

BB/9 2.22

ERA 3.53

xFIP 3.55

 

xFIP doesn't change much at all, but ERA begins to match xFIP.

 

2013-2015:

 

IP 105.00

K/9 7.29

BB/9 2.31

ERA 3.34

xFIP 3.54

 

Again, xFIP stays around the 3.55 range, ERA beginning to improve upon xFIP, likely due to an increase in downward action on his sinker resulting in a lower than average HR/FB.

 

The more encouraging results are below:

 

2014 - 2015

 

IP 71.33

K/9 8.20

BB/9 2.02

ERA 3.28

xFIP 3.26

 

K/9 has increased, xFIP drops down into a well above average rate, and ERA matches. Again, we're limiting the IP here, but if you're going with K rate and BB rate as the main drivers (which they are for xFIP), both stabilize over 170 Batters Faced or less, and that criteria has well been met here.

 

So what do I take away from my research? Well, to project Porcello to morph into a 3.25 ERA pitcher is a little aggressive. That said, he's got a substantial amount of data that indicates that, with Bannister's help in game planning around a specific pitch mix, he can certainly be the 2016 version of 2013 John Lackey and post an ERA/xFIP in the 3.4-3.55 range. And that, I believe, would be plenty good enough to stick behind Price as your number 2.

 

Good stuff man............ Porcello's performance last year was hard to comprehend............. his pitch selection was hard to comprehend........... was it management, or his idea?

 

His second half stuff was alright............. some of his lines looked good.................. but I saw quite a few of his second half games and he was on the ropes quite a bit and a hit or two would have made it much worse........... and he didn't get that deep in the games......................

 

I have no idea what we will get out of Porcello next year........... but I wouldn't bet on what I would consider a number 2 performance......

 

I'd say Kelly has the same odds as being a number 2 next year....... and both those bets would be a risk.

Edited December 19, 2015 by SoxHop

[a700hitter]

Good stuff man............ Porcello's performance last year was hard to comprehend............. his pitch selection was hard to comprehend........... was it management, or his idea?

 

His second half stuff was alright............. some of his lines looked good.................. but I saw quite a few of his second half games and he was on the ropes quite a bit and a hit or two would have made it much worse........... and he didn't get that deep in the games......................

 

I have no idea what we will get out of Porcello next year........... but I wouldn't bet on what I would consider a number 2 performance......

If DD bets on Porcello as his number 2, he is in deep doo doo.

[Spudboy]

I think that E Rod must be scene as the #2 as of now. People are concerned about his sophomore status and if he will build on what he did in 2015. Who knows? He is not a genuine #2. I have no trust in the other starters to perform anywhere near their ceilings or to pitch consistently well for any length of time.

 

It's nice to have one of the best pitchers in the game as #1. However, I don't see Price sprinkling magic dust on the other pitchers and making this rotation whole and very effective. f*** that leadership crap. The other clowns have to step up and pitch well.

[a700hitter]

I think that E Rod must be scene as the #2 as of now. People are concerned about his sophomore status and if he will build on what he did in 2015. Who knows? He is not a genuine #2. I have no trust in the other starters to perform anywhere near their ceilings or to pitch consistently well for any length of time.

 

It's nice to have one of the best pitchers in the game as #1. However, I don't see Price sprinkling magic dust on the other pitchers and making this rotation whole and very effective. f*** that leadership crap. The other clowns have to step up and pitch well.

I am still holding out hope that DD gets another top pitcher in a trade.

[Kimmi]

Buchholz is our #2, until he shows otherwise.

[a700hitter]

Buchholz is our #2, until he shows otherwise.

Correction, he is our number 2 until mid or late June.

[Kimmi]

I think that E Rod must be scene as the #2 as of now. People are concerned about his sophomore status and if he will build on what he did in 2015. Who knows? He is not a genuine #2. I have no trust in the other starters to perform anywhere near their ceilings or to pitch consistently well for any length of time.

 

It's nice to have one of the best pitchers in the game as #1. However, I don't see Price sprinkling magic dust on the other pitchers and making this rotation whole and very effective. f*** that leadership crap. The other clowns have to step up and pitch well.

 

I agree that the others have to step up and pitch well, but I think you are de-emphasizing the value of good leadership. No, there's magic dust to be sprinkled, but having a good leader and role model can get others to raise the level of their work habits and the level of their game.

[Kimmi]

Correction, he is our number 2 until mid or late June.

 

Until he shows otherwise. It may be mid June. It may be later. It may be earlier.

[Spudboy]

I agree that the others have to step up and pitch well, but I think you are de-emphasizing the value of good leadership. No, there's magic dust to be sprinkled, but having a good leader and role model can get others to raise the level of their work habits and the level of their game.

 

This is just widely spread nonsense. It's nice to have teammates that you get along with and admire but at the end of the day pitching is an individual endeavor. A guy is out there alone throwing the ball. Unless Price is a better coach than the guy who does it full time, the concept of "leadership from the #1" is just hogwash to me.

 

We still need a #2.

[Spudboy]

Until he shows otherwise. It may be mid June. It may be later. It may be earlier.

 

And a bargain at only $13. mil!!!!!! A no-brainer for sure.

[Spudboy]

I am still holding out hope that DD gets another top pitcher in a trade.

 

This has been an urgent need since Ben dissolved the starting pitching staff in 2014.

 

DD makes it seem that is unlikely. Too bad because this staff still blows goats. Hope the Sox score 5-6 runs per game!!!!!!

[a700hitter]

Until he shows otherwise. It may be mid June. It may be later. It may be earlier.

It will not be later than the All Star Break.

[cp176]

No one knows what to expect from Buchholz. Trying to predict what he is going to give just isn't working. Good Buchh? bad Buchh? injured Buchh. He is a "we hope" guy just like Porcello (if people want him to be a #2) and Kelly. Price, E-Rod and a bunch of guys that we hope will stay healthy, pitch like they have when they have been at their best, or outperform what they have done in the past. It doesn't really look very stable. Better than last year for sure but still very shaky. I would be surprised if DD doesn't make a move.

[a700hitter]

No one knows what to expect from Buchholz. Trying to predict what he is going to give just isn't working. Good Buchh? bad Buchh? injured Buchh. He is a "we hope" guy just like Porcello (if people want him to be a #2) and Kelly. Price, E-Rod and a bunch of guys that we hope will stay healthy, pitch like they have when they have been at their best, or outperform what they have done in the past. It doesn't really look very stable. Better than last year for sure but still very shaky. I would be surprised if DD doesn't make a move.

I think we can expect half season Buch.

[cp176]

I think we can expect half season Buch.

 

Statistically speaking (can I say that here?) that would be a good bet. Which Buchholz will we see though? That one I would not bet on.

[User Name]

No one knows what to expect from Buchholz. Trying to predict what he is going to give just isn't working. Good Buchh? bad Buchh? injured Buchh. He is a "we hope" guy just like Porcello (if people want him to be a #2) and Kelly. Price, E-Rod and a bunch of guys that we hope will stay healthy, pitch like they have when they have been at their best, or outperform what they have done in the past. It doesn't really look very stable. Better than last year for sure but still very shaky. I would be surprised if DD doesn't make a move.

 

At least you can count on Porcello actually taking the ball every fifth day.

[cp176]

Very true. Without Miley in the rotation, we all might appreciate Porcello a little more. Actually when i think of him as a back ass of the rotation guy, I do feel good.

[Kimmi]

This is just widely spread nonsense. It's nice to have teammates that you get along with and admire but at the end of the day pitching is an individual endeavor. A guy is out there alone throwing the ball. Unless Price is a better coach than the guy who does it full time, the concept of "leadership from the #1" is just hogwash to me.

 

We still need a #2.

 

I disagree that this is nonsense. For all the times I get the "stats don't tell you everything" defense, here is a case where we actually have something intangible. It's the same thing with Pedroia and his leadership and "grit". I can't prove it, but I have no doubt they make a difference.

[Kimmi]

And a bargain at only $13. mil!!!!!! A no-brainer for sure.

 

I'm glad that you've finally come around to my way of thinking on this one.

[Kimmi]

No one knows what to expect from Buchholz. Trying to predict what he is going to give just isn't working. Good Buchh? bad Buchh? injured Buchh. He is a "we hope" guy just like Porcello (if people want him to be a #2) and Kelly. Price, E-Rod and a bunch of guys that we hope will stay healthy, pitch like they have when they have been at their best, or outperform what they have done in the past. It doesn't really look very stable. Better than last year for sure but still very shaky. I would be surprised if DD doesn't make a move.

 

I have agreed with you since before the offseason that the preference would be to add 2 starters. Since we traded Miley, that preference becomes even stronger.

 

That said, I think it is going to be a very solid staff, as is. On top of that, we now have a BP which should be better able to absorb some of the not so great starts by our starters.

[User Name]

They need another starter. Buch and Kelly are both very fragile.

[mvp 78]

I like Rodriguez, but the current staff has too many unknowns. They need one more top guy imo. Just adding Price and the bullpen upgrades, gets them to 86-88 wins. One more guy gets them over the hump and protects against a Buchholz injury, a weak Kelly showing or a sophmore slump from Rodriguez.

[Dojji]

I disagree that this is nonsense. For all the times I get the "stats don't tell you everything" defense, here is a case where we actually have something intangible. It's the same thing with Pedroia and his leadership and "grit". I can't prove it, but I have no doubt they make a difference.

 

I agree. Every team needs a slump stopper. Doesn't have to be a pitcher but it has to be one guy who can take the team on his back from time to time and stop a bad string of games from getting out of control. Until recently, it was Papi, but he's nearly done so having an ace starter who can do the same thing from the other side of the ball will become critical.

[SoxHop]

I agree. Every team needs a slump stopper. Doesn't have to be a pitcher but it has to be one guy who can take the team on his back from time to time and stop a bad string of games from getting out of control. Until recently, it was Papi, but he's nearly done so having an ace starter who can do the same thing from the other side of the ball will become critical.

 

I think the needing a slump stopper stuff is boloney. Unless you refer to a slump stopper as an entire solid rotation that won't allow a slump.

 

We are going into this season with about as much confidence in our 2 through 5 pitchers as last year.

 

E-Rod is the only one other than Price I have much confidence in. The stints of brilliance from Porcello and Kelly the second half last season isn't something I'd bank on.

 

I guess it would be positive to say that if the entire staff did mediocre to what was expected, we would be ok and possibly be battling for a playoff spot. But the rotation right now does not instill confidence, and like last year has many question marks...........

 

All in all....... we are walking into a season again with a very questionable rotation. Which could be great, could be poor, or could be mediocre. We are not walking in to the season in a position of strength.

[SoxHop]

I think the needing a slump stopper stuff is boloney. Unless you refer to a slump stopper as an entire solid rotation that won't allow a slump.

 

We are going into this season with about as much confidence in our 2 through 5 pitchers as last year.

 

E-Rod is the only one other than Price I have much confidence in. The stints of brilliance from Porcello and Kelly the second half last season isn't something I'd bank on.

 

I guess it would be positive to say that if the entire staff did mediocre to what was expected, we would be ok and possibly be battling for a playoff spot. But the rotation right now does not instill confidence, and like last year has many question marks...........

 

All in all....... we are walking into a season again with a very questionable rotation. Which could be great, could be poor, or could be mediocre. We are not walking in to the season in a position of strength.

 

 

Well said Soxhop........ you again prove you are the most intelligent person on this board....... keep it up........ boomshanka..

[SoxnCycles]

Well said Soxhop........ you again prove you are the most intelligent person on this board....... keep it up........ boomshanka..

 

You set a very low bar for yourself.

Aim higher!

[Kimmi]

I think the needing a slump stopper stuff is boloney. Unless you refer to a slump stopper as an entire solid rotation that won't allow a slump.

 

We are going into this season with about as much confidence in our 2 through 5 pitchers as last year.

 

E-Rod is the only one other than Price I have much confidence in. The stints of brilliance from Porcello and Kelly the second half last season isn't something I'd bank on.

 

I guess it would be positive to say that if the entire staff did mediocre to what was expected, we would be ok and possibly be battling for a playoff spot. But the rotation right now does not instill confidence, and like last year has many question marks...........

 

All in all....... we are walking into a season again with a very questionable rotation. Which could be great, could be poor, or could be mediocre. We are not walking in to the season in a position of strength.

 

A few things about this year's rotation versus last year's:

 

1. The same 2-5 that we had last year can now actually be 2-5. Last year they were expected to be 1-4. That may not be a huge difference, but it is a difference.

 

2. Rodriguez was not in the rotation to start the year. Masterson was. So, Price replaced Miley and Rodriguez replaced Masterson. Those are two significant upgrades.

 

3. Do not discount the effect that the Vazquez and Hanigan injuries had on the staff. Swihart did the best he could under the circumstances, but he was not ready. Having a healthy Vazquez behind the plate will improve the staff.

 

4. If the BP is as good as it projects to be, it can shorten the games to 6 or even 5 innings.

 

Fangraphs early projections: Red Sox winning the division with a 92-70 record.

[mvp 78]

What do the fangraph projections do about unsigned FAs?

[Kimmi]

What do the fangraph projections do about unsigned FAs?

 

I know that BP's and Davenport's projections are updated several times throughout the season as more data is added and new players are signed to teams. I'm not sure how often Fangraphs updates, but I'm guessing they update throughout the offseason as well.