The search for an ace

[Kimmi]

Based on the Greinke contract, Price's doesn't look like an overpay anymore. But yes, they definitely got their ace. Outstanding.

 

Price is still an overpay. Greinke is just more of an overpay. Price's contract doesn't look as insane when compared to Greinke's, but it's still insane.

[Elktonnick]

Price is still an overpay. Greinke is just more of an overpay. Price's contract doesn't look as insane when compared to Greinke's, but it's still insane.

 

It isn't insane it is called the free market

[Orange Juiced]

Price is still an overpay. Greinke is just more of an overpay. Price's contract doesn't look as insane when compared to Greinke's, but it's still insane.

 

It's not an overpay if that's what the market is bearing. Keep in mind that Samardzija just got 5 years, $90 million from the Giants. He's 30 years old (31 in a month), and since he's been a starter, the past 4 seasons, he's put up this line:

 

35-52 (.402), 4.03 era, 1.23 whip, 8.3 k/9

 

Last year he put up this line:

 

11-13 (.458), 4.96 era, 1.29 whip, 6.9 k/9

 

Compare that to Price, who has been a starter his whole life and has a line of:

 

104-56 (.650), 3.09 era, 1.13 whip, 8.6 k/9

 

And is coming off a season where he posted this line:

 

18-5 (.783), 2.45 era, 1.01 whip, 10.9 k/9

 

Not even close to the caliber pitcher Price is. Of course, he got a lot less money. But still a LOT of money. For a pretty mediocre starter.

[User Name]

JA Happ got 3/36 in this market. Is Price worth 2.5 times what Happ got for AAV? Fangraphs seems to think so, since Price has put up triple the WAR (32.0 to 10.8) and dollar amount (230.5 to 77.6) that Happ has even though he's been a full time player for one less year. It's the fruit the market's bearing.

[Bellhorn04]

And not losing the draft pick has a value in the Price signing.

[Orange Juiced]

And not losing the draft pick has a value in the Price signing.

 

Huge value. Especially given where they are picking in the draft.

[Kimmi]

It's not an overpay if that's what the market is bearing. Keep in mind that Samardzija just got 5 years, $90 million from the Giants. He's 30 years old (31 in a month), and since he's been a starter, the past 4 seasons, he's put up this line:

 

35-52 (.402), 4.03 era, 1.23 whip, 8.3 k/9

 

Last year he put up this line:

 

11-13 (.458), 4.96 era, 1.29 whip, 6.9 k/9

 

Compare that to Price, who has been a starter his whole life and has a line of:

 

104-56 (.650), 3.09 era, 1.13 whip, 8.6 k/9

 

And is coming off a season where he posted this line:

 

18-5 (.783), 2.45 era, 1.01 whip, 10.9 k/9

 

Not even close to the caliber pitcher Price is. Of course, he got a lot less money. But still a LOT of money. For a pretty mediocre starter.

 

Dombrowski set that market by paying $30 million more than the next highest offer. The Dbacks followed suit by paying Greinke an extra year and about $30 million more than the next highest offer. That makes both contracts an overpays, IMO.

 

To me, the overpay is not so much in the AAV, but more in the number of years. A 5 year contract @ $31 mil per would be about right. I could even see 6 years, which would still be a year too long, because he's a premium pitcher. Seven years is an overpay.

[Kimmi]

And not losing the draft pick has a value in the Price signing.

 

I agree with this. And I also stated in the other thread how I think Price carries a lot of value with his intangibles as well, which we can't put a price tag on. Regardless, I'm not going to be convinced that his contract is not an overpay.

[Kimmi]

What I find really odd is how many people feel that $217 million is not an overpay for Price, but Buchholz is not worth retaining at $13 mil.

 

I think many people's opinions of what is an overpay and what isn't is based on whether they like the player or not.

[Dojji]

That's not entirely false but I'll nuance it a bit. It really is based on whether they trust the player in question to perform at a certain level. The higher a performance level the more it's safe to feel that the money was justifed. This isn't injustice but true justice.

[Kimmi]

That's not entirely false but I'll nuance it a bit. It really is based on whether they trust the player in question to perform at a certain level. The higher a performance level the more it's safe to feel that the money was justifed. This isn't injustice but true justice.

 

I don't disagree with that, but the difference in money between the two is enormous. It's not like Clay was given a multi-year deal @ $18 million per year.

 

The risk/reward is greater for Price than it is for Clay.

[Kimmi]

Let me also add that the contracts that pitchers are getting this offseason make picking up Clay's option even more of a no brainer.

 

Additionally, this is exactly why Porcello was extended before being allowed to hit free agency. Of course he pitched horribly last year, but if he been a near 3 WAR pitcher like he was the previous season, his contract would look really good right now. Personally, I still expect him to be well worth his contract over the next 4 years.

[Kimmi]

Let me also add that Ben gets kudos for trading for Miley. What's he costing us next year? 6 million for 2.6 WAR?

[Spudboy]

I don't disagree with that, but the difference in money between the two is enormous. It's not like Clay was given a multi-year deal @ $18 million per year.

 

The risk/reward is greater for Price than it is for Clay.

 

Sure, painted in that context, Price is a greater risk.

 

However that does not negate that at $13.mil Buch is a waste of time. He has proven to be not reliable for an entire season.

 

If Price fails to produce over the 7 year term than yes, he was a massive failure. Buch is much cheaper but he can be a failure too. And unlike Price, Buch stands a much greater chance of being worthless.

[cp176]

You are paying Buchholtz for a half season potentially for number 1 through 4 work. 26 million for a whole year of him says that we are paying for nothing. We know that they all are satisfactorily rewarded for their work and even their non-work. I happen to like buchholtz for the work he does. He really isn't worth more than he is getting and I am sure that he is one happy guy. If someone thought they were getting a bargain, I would trade him in a heartbeat but I would not give him away. It may be his on year now that we have someone who can lead the way.

[User Name]

And not losing the draft pick has a value in the Price signing.

 

I used Happ as a comp because he did not cost draft pick compensation either.

[User Name]

That's not entirely false but I'll nuance it a bit. It really is based on whether they trust the player in question to perform at a certain level. The higher a performance level the more it's safe to feel that the money was justifed. This isn't injustice but true justice.

 

But in your case, Buchholz is your new Beltre.

[Palodios]

Not sure if I missed the discussion, but John Henry was interviewed this week and he seems to still be interested in upgrading his starting pitching, and going younger.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with this. And I also stated in the other thread how I think Price carries a lot of value with his intangibles as well, which we can't put a price tag on. Regardless, I'm not going to be convinced that his contract is not an overpay.

 

'Overpay' is such a commonly used word to describe baseball contracts these days that it's losing its meaning.

 

In terms of degree of overpayment based on the player's WAR etc., how would you compare Price's contract to Lester's contract?

[Kimmi]

'Overpay' is such a commonly used word to describe baseball contracts these days that it's losing its meaning.

 

In terms of degree of overpayment based on the player's WAR etc., how would you compare Price's contract to Lester's contract?

 

"Overpay" is a subjective word. As I posted earlier, to me, overpay is usually more about the number of years than it is about the dollar amount. IMO, Price is worth $31 million a year for about 4-5 years. The 6th and especially the 7th years are what makes it an overpay considering Price's age.

 

I just read Speier's article on how the negotiations for Price went down. According to him, the Sox had an offer on the table for $200/7yrs. The Cards had an offer of $180/7 yrs. Price was set to sign with the Cards.

 

The Sox upped their offer to $210/7yrs. Price's agent said the deal would get done for $217/7 yrs. The Sox paid $37 million more than the next highest offer. To me, that is also an overpay, despite the number of years being the same.

[Kimmi]

In terms of degree of overpayment based on the player's WAR etc., how would you compare Price's contract to Lester's contract?

 

In terms of straight numbers, based on the pitcher's WAR in the year prior to signing the contract, Lester's contract works out to $4.7 mil/WAR for 6 years and Price's contract works out to $4.8 mil/WAR for 7 years. They are fairly comparable, with Price having the additional year.

 

I thought the FO messed up big time in not re-signing Lester before he hit free agency. That said, I also thought that they were correct in not matching/beating the Cubs final offer for him.

[Palodios]

The Sox upped their offer to $210/7yrs. Price's agent said the deal would get done for $217/7 yrs. The Sox paid $37 million more than the next highest offer. To me, that is also an overpay, despite the number of years being the same.

 

Verlander's contract was 180 million. Kershaw's contract was 215 million. Felix's was 175 million. But here's the thing. The Red Sox didn't need to do the work.

 

They didn't have to suffer through a season as the absolute worst team in baseball and pull a #1/2 overall draft pick. They didn't have the scouting/luck of the lifetime and draft a 16 year old Felix out of Venezuala. They wrote a check for 20 million more than the player's other option.

[Orange Juiced]

Dombrowski set that market by paying $30 million more than the next highest offer. The Dbacks followed suit by paying Greinke an extra year and about $30 million more than the next highest offer. That makes both contracts an overpays, IMO.

 

To me, the overpay is not so much in the AAV, but more in the number of years. A 5 year contract @ $31 mil per would be about right. I could even see 6 years, which would still be a year too long, because he's a premium pitcher. Seven years is an overpay.

 

Dombrowski didn't set the market. He put out offers to Price and Greinke, apparently. Price was the primary target, presumably because he'd be cheaper. That it took this to get Price to come to Boston, when Price had other offers out there, tells you that this is what the market was for him. DD didn't outbid himself.

[Kimmi]

Verlander's contract was 180 million. Kershaw's contract was 215 million. Felix's was 175 million. But here's the thing. The Red Sox didn't need to do the work.

 

They didn't have to suffer through a season as the absolute worst team in baseball and pull a #1/2 overall draft pick. They didn't have the scouting/luck of the lifetime and draft a 16 year old Felix out of Venezuala. They wrote a check for 20 million more than the player's other option.

 

I agree with all of this. Dombrowski simply wrote a check for a lot more than the next highest offer. I'm not sure if you're agreeing that his contract is an overpay or not.

[Kimmi]

Dombrowski didn't set the market. He put out offers to Price and Greinke, apparently. Price was the primary target, presumably because he'd be cheaper. That it took this to get Price to come to Boston, when Price had other offers out there, tells you that this is what the market was for him. DD didn't outbid himself.

 

I disagree that Dombrowski didn't set the market. No, he didn't bid against himself, but he set the market by his willingness to pay $30 million more than the Cardinals.

 

I had posted before that I didn't think it was smart for Dombrowski to be so open about what his intentions were in acquiring a #1. Perhaps Price would have accepted the Sox' first offer, which was already $20 million more than the Cards' offer, had there not been so much speculation about how much the Sox were willing to pay.

[Elktonnick]

I disagree that Dombrowski didn't set the market. No, he didn't bid against himself, but he set the market by his willingness to pay $30 million more than the Cardinals.

 

I had posted before that I didn't think it was smart for Dombrowski to be so open about what his intentions were in acquiring a #1. Perhaps Price would have accepted the Sox' first offer, which was already $20 million more than the Cards' offer, had there not been so much speculation about how much the Sox were willing to pay.

 

i don't mean to be rude but you have overpay on the brain. You are being wishful in your thinking that these players such as Price would have settled for substantially less than they did. The Red Sox tried the low ball approach with Lester and look what it got them. DD and Boston got their man and speculating on saving a few dollars here and there is as about an useful exercise as a cat chasing its tail.

[Palodios]

I agree with all of this. Dombrowski simply wrote a check for a lot more than the next highest offer. I'm not sure if you're agreeing that his contract is an overpay or not.

 

I don't believe the contract is an overpay. Better than 200 million for Greinke. Better than Betts + Owens +Devers +more for Sale or Gray. He didn't cost that valuable 11th overall pick. You also get the guarantee that this guy can handle the AL East. You also get all the people saying "The Red Sox don't have an ace" to shut up.

[a700hitter]

I don't believe the contract is an overpay. Better than 200 million for Greinke. Better than Betts + Owens +Devers +more for Sale or Gray. He didn't cost that valuable 11th overall pick. You also get the guarantee that this guy can handle the AL East. You also get all the people saying "The Red Sox don't have an ace" to shut up.

 

Sometimes you make me shake my head with your perspective. I think the problem with the Red Sox last season was the terrible rotation and equally terrible bullpen. DD has addressed those issues by getting the best closer and the best FA starter. I didn't realize that the problem was shutting up those people who said that we don't have an ace. Thanks for the laugh.

[Palodios]

Sometimes you make me shake my head with your perspective. I think the problem with the Red Sox last season was the terrible rotation and equally terrible bullpen. DD has addressed those issues by getting the best closer and the best FA starter. I didn't realize that the problem was shutting up those people who said that we don't have an ace. Thanks for the laugh.

 

You'll find something else to complain about, I'm sure.

[cp176]

Is shutting people up for wanting an ace the same as shutting up the people who honestly believe that we weren't awinnin without one? has to be that the front office just crumbled to talk sox pressure once again.