2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[cp176]

I really am perplexed that DD is willing to start his tenure in Boston with a defensive experiment with Hanley, especially after spending a boatload on Price and getting Kimbrell. You can screw up a lot of games at first base. Also, I am very disappointed that DD has not added another quality starting pitcher. I still think our pitching is thin and mediocre. Thankfully, the rest of the ALE is flawed.

 

 

All I can think of here, is that they feel that they still have a pretty good backup plan. Shaw can play first or third and nobody really knows what he can do over the long haul in Boston. I also kind of thought that we would see one more guy added to the rotation but right now it doesn't look that way. I don't think that replacing Ramirez whether in the field or at the plate is the big issue. It is what do you do with him if he can't play first base? That could create a big problem. This is a Hanley Ramirez opportunity. If he is working and putting in the time it takes to actually learn how to play the position, great. If he isn't and he can't get it done, I feel bad for him because it could be a career ender. I would not be at all surprised to see Sam Travis at first base for Boston before the season is over.

[a700hitter]

All I can think of here, is that they feel that they still have a pretty good backup plan. Shaw can play first or third and nobody really knows what he can do over the long haul in Boston. I also kind of thought that we would see one more guy added to the rotation but right now it doesn't look that way. I don't think that replacing Ramirez whether in the field or at the plate is the big issue. It is what do you do with him if he can't play first base? That could create a big problem. This is a Hanley Ramirez opportunity. If he is working and putting in the time it takes to actually learn how to play the position, great. If he isn't and he can't get it done, I feel bad for him because it could be a career ender. I would not be at all surprised to see Sam Travis at first base for Boston before the season is over.

I will be down in Fort Myers on March 4th. Hopefully, I will not have the same concerns that I had last March after watching his act in LF.

[cp176]

I will be down in Fort Myers on March 4th. Hopefully, I will not have the same concerns that I had last March after watching his act in LF.

 

Just listened to an interview with the current third baseman MVP (not a Red Sox). His comments about Price work for me. Sounds like the kind of player and teammate that any team would love to have. Price is over paid but aren't they all. If you are going to overpay, it makes a lot of sense to me to overpay for the best. This is the kind of player that we have needed. A lot of money- yes- but still a common sense sign if you can afford him.

[Northern Star]

Just listened to an interview with the current third baseman MVP (not a Red Sox). His comments about Price work for me. Sounds like the kind of player and teammate that any team would love to have. Price is over paid but aren't they all. If you are going to overpay, it makes a lot of sense to me to overpay for the best. This is the kind of player that we have needed. A lot of money- yes- but still a common sense sign if you can afford him.

 

So how do you explain the Porcello contract?

[cp176]

So how do you explain the Porcello contract?

 

Wouldn't try that one. Normally you get what you pay for. In Porcello's case, not so much. He may still be a very important piece but I am glad somebody else is paying him.

[a700hitter]

Wouldn't try that one. Normally you get what you pay for. In Porcello's case, not so much. He may still be a very important piece but I am glad somebody else is paying him.

Hanley, Human Doughnut and Porcello was over $250 million of bad contracts. Ben fanned and went 0h fer three on these guys.

[Bellhorn04]

Hanley, Human Doughnut and Porcello was over $250 million of bad contracts. Ben fanned and went 0h fer three on these guys.

 

Toss in Castillo and it was a $340 million Golden Sombrero. The 4 had a combined fWAR in 2015 of -1.8. We can only hope for much better results this year.

[Kimmi]

Chris Davis is apparently headed back to the Orioles. Seven year deal.

[Kimmi]

Are you serious? Ken Rosenthal and a host of other sports media personalities immediately pointed to Sandoval's weight and three-year decline and pretty much declared it a huge bust possibility right at the outset.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/pablo-sandoval-hanley-ramirez-this-red-sox-splurge-looks-a-lot-like-the-last-one-112414

 

Edes was worried about the fact that Sandoval didn't even want his weight problems to be mentioned during negotiations. The fellowiship of misery presided by Mazz and the CHB were right this time.

 

Many people were concerned about the contract and thought it was a bad signing. I didn't like the contract either. I am not arguing that, nor am I arguing that there weren't warning signs.

 

I also realize that Pablo's production has declined for 3 years, and that he won't age as well as a player who isn't as large as he is.

 

It was very reasonable to expect that he would continue to decline, and very it was very reasonable to expect that the contract would turn bad.

 

A reasonable expectation would have been a decline of about 1/2 WAR, maybe a little more. Nobody expected him to be as bad as he was last year, not even close to that. Nobody. Not even Rosenthal. And I bet that he's not nearly as bad this season, meaning last year was more of a fluke than anything else.

[Kimmi]

Of course it was a stupid signing. It was a stupid signing like the Crawford signing was stupid. The initial premise was flawed but somewhat defensible, and matters were made worse by the stupendous decline the player experienced once joining the team.

 

I disagreed with the initial decision to sign Sandoval, but you can't pretend that the fact that the bottom fell out of the guy the very first year he joined the team was in any way predictable or reasonable.

 

Correct.

[Kimmi]

He was a 3 WAR player in 2014, and a -2 WAR player in 2015. It was a dumb signing, but it wasn't exactly an obvious drop off.

 

The contract is not a good one, but the signing is defensible.

 

The 5 WAR drop off in the first year of his contract was in no way obvious or predictable. It was not even a realistic or reasonable expectation.

[mvp 78]

Toss in Castillo and it was a $340 million Golden Sombrero. The 4 had a combined fWAR in 2015 of -1.8. We can only hope for much better results this year.

 

Castillo was the best signing of the bunch.

[Kimmi]

On another note away from from Sandoval:

 

Here is a very interesting analysis on the Steamer projections for the 2016 Red Sox from Dave Cameron:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/investigating-steamers-optimism-for-the-red-sox/#more-208419

 

I thought this was a very good analysis by Cameron. It shows that the 92 win projection for the Sox really isn't overly optimistic or unrealistic. A lot is going to hinge on Hanley's ability to play first base though.

[Bellhorn04]

Castillo was the best signing of the bunch.

 

Remains to be seen IMO.

[mvp 78]

A more "realistic" projection is 88 wins, not 92. After being in last place for 3 of 4 years, the 92 games may be a little bit of a stretch. It's more likely than not that they don't get to 90 wins.

 

Projections aren't foolproof. I just haven't seen a correlation between Sox projections and performance the past 5 years or so. This team is such a mixed bag that it's really hard to say for sure where they'll end up.

[mvp 78]

Remains to be seen IMO.

 

Panda and Hanley are dogs. They should have waited until adter the season to sign Porcello.

 

Castillo showed potential. It was basically spending money on a prospect with upside, which I'd rather do then spend on guys in the back half of their careers. Porcello is young, but I wonder if the additional mileage on his arm from getting to the majors at 20 is taking its toll.

[Bellhorn04]

I thought this was a very good analysis by Cameron. It shows that the 92 win projection for the Sox really isn't overly optimistic or unrealistic. A lot is going to hinge on Hanley's ability to play first base though.

 

If Hanley can't play first, there's not much they can do with him, except maybe use him as an expensive 1B/DH platoon option, and wait until 2017 when he replaces Papi as full time DH.

[Bellhorn04]

Panda and Hanley are dogs. They should have waited until adter the season to sign Porcello.

 

Castillo showed potential. It was basically spending money on a prospect with upside, which I'd rather do then spend on guys in the back half of their careers. Porcello is young, but I wonder if the additional mileage on his arm from getting to the majors at 20 is taking its toll.

 

Castillo did show potential, but at the end of the day he had an OPS of .647 and an fWAR of 0.4.

[a700hitter]

...

 

Porcello is young, but I wonder if the additional mileage on his arm from getting to the majors at 20 is taking its toll.

I think this is a point that many people miss. He has a lot of innings under his belt.

[User Name]

A more "realistic" projection is 88 wins, not 92. After being in last place for 3 of 4 years, the 92 games may be a little bit of a stretch. It's more likely than not that they don't get to 90 wins.

 

Projections aren't foolproof. I just haven't seen a correlation between Sox projections and performance the past 5 years or so. This team is such a mixed bag that it's really hard to say for sure where they'll end up.

 

88 wins is exactly what Cameron is actually projecting.

[User Name]

Panda and Hanley are dogs. They should have waited until adter the season to sign Porcello.

 

Castillo showed potential. It was basically spending money on a prospect with upside, which I'd rather do then spend on guys in the back half of their careers. Porcello is young, but I wonder if the additional mileage on his arm from getting to the majors at 20 is taking its toll.

 

Velocity/movement/command were not a problem for the 2015 version of Porcello. Pitch selection was, at least for the first half.

[mvp 78]

88 wins is exactly what Cameron is actually projecting.

 

The original fangraphs projection was 92. He is using bias to reduce the number.

[mvp 78]

Velocity/movement/command were not a problem for the 2015 version of Porcello. Pitch selection was, at least for the first half.

 

If you want to believe that myth, go for it.

[User Name]

If you want to believe that myth, go for it.

 

It's not a myth, the stats back it up. Whether or not you want to believe them is a whole other matter.

[User Name]

The original fangraphs projection was 92. He is using bias to reduce the number.

 

How is that bias? He's absolutely correct in his criticism.

[Bellhorn04]

If you want to believe that myth, go for it.

 

He did pitch much better in his 8 games after returning to the rotation, for whatever reason.

[a700hitter]

If you want to believe that myth, go for it.

I agree with you on this. His problem was pitch selection. It was pitch execution, i.e command, which some believe to be the first sign of arm trouble. He did go on the DL. Maybe it was a phantom DL, maybe not. Ony heand the doctors know. He left a lot of balls over the fat part of the plate. That isn't pitch selection. It is execution.

[mvp 78]

How is that bias? He's absolutely correct in his criticism.

 

Instead of agreeing with the projections, he states they should be expected to lose a few more games because of his bias. I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm just saying he's tweaking the results with his own personal beliefs, i.e. bias.

[mvp 78]

It's not a myth, the stats back it up. Whether or not you want to believe them is a whole other matter.

 

The Sox catchers were calling for pitches to be lobbed right down Broadway? I find that hard to believe.

[User Name]

The Sox catchers were calling for pitches to be lobbed right down Broadway? I find that hard to believe.

 

No. He altered his pitch selection and sequencing to feature significantly more fastballs but less change-ups and breaking balls. That resulted in an increase in his K%, but the resulting increase in HR% was disastrous, specially against LHH