2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Kimmi]

I don't think that's a big issue. Once he's here and pitching the fans will shower him with love, patching it up with Ortiz shouldn't take much. His team mates will make a fuss of him as well you'd think.

 

It may be an issue in getting him here, but when he is, I think he will be just fine.

 

I agree that it likely won't be an issue, though you never really know. If Price and the team get off to a good start, all will be good. OTOH, if Price and the team get off to a rough start, that could set the wrong tone, similar to what happened with Crawford.

 

That said, everything that I've read about Price says that he is a great teammate, a great clubhouse guy, a true professional, and just a great person in general. I don't think there would be any issues with him in terms of performance or clubhouse presence.

[a700hitter]

Clemens used to hit Jeter all the time. They hated each other. When Clemens showed up for Spring Training with the Yankees, Jeter met him wearing catchers gear for batting practice as joke. They got along just fine.

[a700hitter]

You may be right about Cleveland not being willing to trade without getting some major league ready offense back. Who knows, they might have been willing to take Hanley if the Sox ate a big part of his contract and JBJ? If not Cleveland, then perhaps Oakland or Miami would be willing to trade for prospects. Or perhaps the White Sox would trade for a package including Swihart.

 

In fairness to Dombrowski, none of knows which teams are actually willing to trade for what. I'm sure he did his due diligence and arrived at the conclusion that a trade for a starter would not be possible. OTOH, maybe all of this talk about how Price is our #1 target and how he doesn't see us trading for a starter is just a ploy to get the other teams to come down in their demands.

I would do a happy dance if DD gets rid of Hanley.

[Palodios]

I know everyone wants a #1, and I do too. However, the Royals did not have a #1 and they won the WS last year. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as the saying goes.

 

In 2014, the Royals went to the World Series and were dominated by Bumgarner.

In 2015, the Royals had Cueto. He had a rough game against Toronto but he did throw a two hitter in the World Series.

[a700hitter]

In 2014, the Royals went to the World Series and were dominated by Bumgarner.

In 2015, the Royals had Cueto. He had a rough game against Toronto but he did throw a two hitter in the World Series.

Edison Volquez is very much over-looked. His 2014 & 2015 seasons were pretty darn good. We didn't have any pitcher over that 2 year stretch that came close to Volquez's accomplishments.

[a700hitter]

I am keeping my fingers crossed that DD can pull off a trade of Hanley

Red Sox Shopping Hanley Ramirez

 

By Zach Links | November 29, 2015 at 10:21am CST

 

There’s “talk in the front office” that new Red Sox baseball chief Dave Dombrowski is trying to move Hanley Ramirez, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe. Cafardo adds that the Mariners, Orioles, and Angels “seem to be the targets” of DD’s campaign to relocate the pricey veteran after he turned in a massively disappointing season in 2015. It’s not immediately clear if those three clubs have interest, however.

 

Of course, trading Ramirez is probably easier said than done. Just last week, five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take on Ramirez even if the Red Sox picked up the tab on half of his remaining salary. Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.

 

For their part, the Sox say that they’re still committed to Ramirez playing first base for them in 2016. They’re also hopeful that the soon-to-be 32-year-old can bounce back by dropping some weight. Ramirez was officially listed at 225 pounds this season but he was apparently tipping the scales at 240 pounds. All in all, Ramirez’s first year in Boston was dreadful. Despite hitting 19 home runs, he produced just a .291 OBP, and he struggled horribly with the transition from the infield to left field. At the time of his signing, Ramirez was coming off of a year in which he posted a .283/.369/.448 slash line with 13 homers for the Dodgers with a .300/.373/.500 slash line for his career.

 

On a related note, Cafardo hears that the Red Sox have discussed free agent slugger Chris Davis internally. However, that would only be doable if the Red Sox were able to move Ramirez. Also, the Red Sox would have to weigh their desire to add Davis’ bat against their need for a frontline starter.

[Spudboy]

I don't think that's a big issue. Once he's here and pitching the fans will shower him with love, patching it up with Ortiz shouldn't take much. His team mates will make a fuss of him as well you'd think.

 

It may be an issue in getting him here, but when he is, I think he will be just fine.

 

I'm with you on this Hitch. The dust-up with Ortiz is overblown anyway.

 

But I believe that some team will outbid the Sox for Price and I suspect that the Yankees will enter the fray.

[Soxfan83]

I used to watch Volquez pitch a lot back in Cali when he was with the Padres. He's a solid mid rotation arm. But they used him as an ace atleast one season. His main downside is he can be erratic. He's good for a couple of walks a game, sometimes more. But he also brings above average strikeouts. In our current rotation, he'd probably be our strikeout leader. That's assuming Buch gives you less than 130 ip. E-rod might challenge him.

[Hitch]

I agree that it likely won't be an issue, though you never really know. If Price and the team get off to a good start, all will be good. OTOH, if Price and the team get off to a rough start, that could set the wrong tone, similar to what happened with Crawford.

 

That said, everything that I've read about Price says that he is a great teammate, a great clubhouse guy, a true professional, and just a great person in general. I don't think there would be any issues with him in terms of performance or clubhouse presence.

 

Yeah, I keep reading the same also.

 

If he does come, I think it will be very good for E-Rod and Owens, longterm.

[Soxfan83]

Ya everything I've heard from interviews with scouts is that Price is the only agent this year that scouts would bank on to keep playing at a high level for 4-5 years. They also mentioned Greinke but wasn't a "lock" to them like Price.

[Kimmi]

In 2014, the Royals went to the World Series and were dominated by Bumgarner.

In 2015, the Royals had Cueto. He had a rough game against Toronto but he did throw a two hitter in the World Series.

 

As somebody mentioned in another post, having a #1 might seemingly help you in the postseason, although that is not a foregone conclusion, but having a #1 is not necessary to get to the postseason. KC didn't pick up Cueto until the trade deadline, and Cueto certainly did not pitch like a #1 for the remainder of the regular season once KC got him.

[Kimmi]

Edison Volquez is very much over-looked. His 2014 & 2015 seasons were pretty darn good. We didn't have any pitcher over that 2 year stretch that came close to Volquez's accomplishments.

 

Volquez is a comparable pitcher to Wei-Yin Chen as far as value and production go. He's one of those 2nd tier type pitchers, not a #1.

 

Interesting tidbit. Wade Miley was worth as much in WAR (2.6) last season as Volquez was.

[Kimmi]

I am keeping my fingers crossed that DD can pull off a trade of Hanley

 

I agree that it is probably best to trade Hanley, mostly because he does not have a position to play, but I have a feeling if he is traded, we will be paying dearly for him to rake offensively for another team.

 

Think about how good he was in April, before he hurt his shoulder.

[Kimmi]

Yeah, I keep reading the same also.

 

If he does come, I think it will be very good for E-Rod and Owens, longterm.

 

I agree. I think he would be a great leader and mentor for our young guys.

[User Name]

I know everyone wants a #1, and I do too. However, the Royals did not have a #1 and they won the WS last year. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as the saying goes.

 

The GM change was definitely made because of the 3 last place finishes in 4 years. IMO, it wasn't fair to Ben, but I can understand why it was done.

 

We always hear about how 2013 was a fluke, how the Sox were extremely lucky, or how there was some magic involved. There is always some luck involved for a team to win a WS, but for the most part, I don't see 2013 as a fluke at all. I honestly believe that both 2014 and 2015 were the fluke years, not 2013. There was much more that went unexpectedly wrong in each of those years than there was that went unexpectly good in 2013.

 

As far as Farrell goes, I agree. There was no way the Sox could fire him at this time. Perhaps the team will rally around him this season, as it seemed they did when they heard that he had cancer. I am glad that Lovullo chose to stick around.

 

However, the Royals had a BP that pitched to a 2.72 ERA as a unit, and whose seven best relievers all pitched 24 IP or more with an ERA not higher than 2.96. They essentially shortened games to 5 Innings. Unless the Sox can build that kind of BP and a lot of above average pitching, a top of the rotation pitcher is a need for them.

[Kimmi]

However, the Royals had a BP that pitched to a 2.72 ERA as a unit, and whose seven best relievers all pitched 24 IP or more with an ERA not higher than 2.96. They essentially shortened games to 5 Innings. Unless the Sox can build that kind of BP and a lot of above average pitching, a top of the rotation pitcher is a need for them.

 

I do not disagree. It's interesting how there seems to be such a premium on relievers right now because of KC's success last year. I agree that the Sox cannot go without a #1 unless they are going to fortify their pen some more, just saying that it can be done.

[a700hitter]

I agree that it is probably best to trade Hanley, mostly because he does not have a position to play, but I have a feeling if he is traded, we will be paying dearly for him to rake offensively for another team.

 

Think about how good he was in April, before he hurt his shoulder.

I think plenty of TalkSox members would volunteer to drive him to the airport if he gets traded -- without regrets.

[example1]

A logjam of mediocre arms, how terrific!

 

They are undefined arms. I think any of them could end up being good MLB pitchers. Johnson and Owens are both unproven but could be mid-rotation guys in their prime. Miley has consistently thrown about 200 IP and fangraphs had him with about the same WAR last year as Richards, Gallardo, and Kazmir. Kelly has shown flashes and probably belongs in the pen. All in all this isn't a completely worthless group and it's possible there's something pretty good in their--if they can figure out which one it is.

[cp176]

Sandoval - ? might be better this year -

Ramirez - ? might be better this year -

Porcello - ? might be better this year - could be a mid rotation guy

Buchholtz -? potential forever - might be good might not be

Kelly - ? potential - might be good - might flop

owens -? should improve - might be mid rotation

Johnson - ? - might be mid rotation someday, might not

 

Price or Grienke - What are the odds that they won't be good to outstanding once again?

We just have too many question marks for me in places where we need to have some strength.

 

The signing of Kimbrel at whatever the expense gives us someone in our bullpen that we can feel confident about. More than we can say about any of the rest of our guys. We hope that they will all bounce back. We hope that they will all be heathy. Took some risks last year and they just didn't work out. That is a fact and there really is no other way to spin it. I really hope that DD can bring in a few more guys that have a real history of success and health. A top of the rotation pitcher would be a start. You have to have pitchers and you have to have role players and inning eaters but when I look at all of the questions that come with much of our pitching staff I can't help but liken it to constipation. As for spending the money, the more that gets saved through an imaginary philosophy is really just going back into the pockets of the people running the show. Ticket prices have risen year after year. The product needs to improve. As to a budget - all good stuff right but we are the ones who are literally paying the price. I think and hope that DD gets it and has passed some of his knowledge on. Hope they listen. Solid deals and fewer risks even though they might be a liltle more costly works for me.

[Palodios]

I am searching for comparisons for Hanley Ramirez.

 

Billy Butler, mediocre first baseman D, career .800 OPS, coming off poor season in 2014. 30 million.

Adam Laroche, mediocre first baseman D, career .780 OPS, 25 million.

Carlos Beltran, mediocre outfield D, career .850 OPS, health issues, 36 years old, 45 million.

 

None are great comparisons. I'm seeing a lot of guys between 20-40 million. At best, the Red Sox will probably have to eat 8-10 million a year. Is is worth it?

[GomesBeard]

Re: the discussion of signing a #1/ace vs a couple of lesser arms (i.e., Price vs Chen/Lackey-type thing).... I am firmly on the 'sign a #1' side. The Sox have not had a stopper for quite some time, that guy that gives you confidence he can stop a 2- or 3-game slide and match up against the other team's ace. I'd be okay if they went into the season with Price and the current pitchers, in some sort of order/mix. Sure, I'd like a second top-notch arm, but not everyone has that these days and I think we could compete in the AL East with that set-up.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pal, you have to remember Hanley not only slid off the rails offensively, but he is without a position and is known as a clubhouse killer. You would have to pay to give him away. Your best bet is to hold onto him and see if he can recoup value at 1b before sliding into DH for 2017

[Palodios]

Pal, you have to remember Hanley not only slid off the rails offensively, but he is without a position and is known as a clubhouse killer. You would have to pay to give him away. Your best bet is to hold onto him and see if he can recoup value at 1b before sliding into DH for 2017

 

We're talking about a player who averaged 4 WAR a year before 2015. Someone has to want to take his contract for 50 million, otherwise the Red Sox should keep him.

[Kimmi]

I am searching for comparisons for Hanley Ramirez.

 

Billy Butler, mediocre first baseman D, career .800 OPS, coming off poor season in 2014. 30 million.

Adam Laroche, mediocre first baseman D, career .780 OPS, 25 million.

Carlos Beltran, mediocre outfield D, career .850 OPS, health issues, 36 years old, 45 million.

 

None are great comparisons. I'm seeing a lot of guys between 20-40 million. At best, the Red Sox will probably have to eat 8-10 million a year. Is is worth it?

 

In the 3 years prior to signing with the Sox, Hanley's worth according to Fangraphs was $16.7 mil, $37.6 mil, and $25.1 mil. For a hitter as good as he was, $22 mil in not a bad contract, especially since it's not that long term.

 

The idea of giving him away just to have him off the team really makes no sense. I understand that he really has no position to play, and I don't want him at first base, but if we have to eat that much of his contract, we'd be better off keeping him.

 

If he stinks that badly at first base, he can DH some this year and slide into that role full time next year.

[Kimmi]

Here is a good summary of why the Sox should be wary of committing $30 million a year to Price. It gives the Sox very little wiggle room financially. And this doesn't even address 2020, 2021, and 2022 when Price will be at the end of his contract and likely not as effective, and our youngsters will be reaching free agency.

 

 

The Red Sox already owe about $130 million to players in 2017, and that’s the year Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt and Jackie Bradley Jr. become eligible for salary arbitration.

 

Adding to the difficulty, the Red Sox will also have to replace retiring designated hitter David Ortiz, as well as starter Clay Buchholz and set-up men Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, all of whom are eligible for free agency.

 

Considering the going rates for top-of-the-line DHs, mid-rotation starters and elite relievers, there’s another $45-60 million the Sox will have to spend, putting the total commitment for 2017 at $175-190 million, plus the salaries for Bogaerts, Holt and Bradley.

 

Add in about $30 million for Price and the Sox will have little or no flexibility to make other roster changes.

 

In 2018 and ’19, the Sox will free up some payroll when Kimbrel, Wade Miley and Hanley Ramirez could come off the books, but Bogaerts might be making Mike Trout money by then. Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez, Mookie Betts and Blake Swihart will also be eligible for arbitration.

[cp176]

Here is a good summary of why the Sox should be wary of committing $30 million a year to Price. It gives the Sox very little wiggle room financially. And this doesn't even address 2020, 2021, and 2022 when Price will be at the end of his contract and likely not as effective, and our youngsters will be reaching free agency.

 

Wiggle room? Do you know something we don't know? The organization is making huge profits year in and year out regardless of where we finish in the standings. I don't care much if they have a break even year. I don't think that they need to save their money at our expense.

[Kimmi]

Wiggle room? Do you know something we don't know? The organization is making huge profits year in and year out regardless of where we finish in the standings. I don't care much if they have a break even year. I don't think that they need to save their money at our expense.

 

Well, despite how much money the fans think ownership should spend every year, they have a certain budget that they are going to operate within. I'm sure they can afford to spend more, but they're not going to. They are first and foremost businessmen. So while you might think that they should just up their payroll to $250 million if that's what it takes, that's not the way they're going to operate.

[cp176]

Well, despite how much money the fans think ownership should spend every year, they have a certain budget that they are going to operate within. I'm sure they can afford to spend more, but they're not going to. They are first and foremost businessmen. So while you might think that they should just up their payroll to $250 million if that's what it takes, that's not the way they're going to operate.

 

I actually do have a fairly decent grasp of the business of business. We all know that they are not running a charitable organization. They are in it to make as much as they possibly can and they are hitting financial home runs. If you want to feel that they have budget restrictions that might alter their attempts to sign anyone that they want to for whatever it takes, that is your opinion. I don't think that we should argue about this one. I really do not share your beliefs on this subject. None of us really knows how they plan to operate. I am guessing that none of us knows.

[jacksonianmarch]

We're talking about a player who averaged 4 WAR a year before 2015. Someone has to want to take his contract for 50 million, otherwise the Red Sox should keep him.

 

Yes, he was 4 WAR because he was playing a position where offense isn't common. No matter how s***** his defense was, a guy who OPS'd .800+ at it was going to be worth something big. The problem is, he doesn't have a position, has a reputation as a clubhouse killer and is coming off an injury that sapped his power without actually fixing it, per se. Right now, youd have to give him away.

[a700hitter]

Alex Cora ‏@ac13alex 22m22 minutes ago

 

Great news for the Red Sox, Hanley will play WinterBall. (@Enrique_Rojas1)

Based on what I have read, this is not going to happen. With no idea how he will handle first base when he shows up for Spring Training, I am betting that DD gets rid of him.