2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Spudboy]

It isn't like it's some national secret. Dombrowski has made it a point to have a headliner atop his rotations. He has had one everywhere he has been. Typically a large, high velocity starter capable of eating innings. Price was that guy starting off the year. He might be that guy again. The sox have a gigantic hole in the top 2 spots in the rotation. You could drive a bus through the hole. You have to take care of 1 before you can take care of #2.

 

While I agree with most of what you say Doc, I think that we should Grab them in any order. As in I would not mind if they went out and signed Horseface back and then signed Price.

[jacksonianmarch]

Spud, you have to focus on the 1. If you are able to keep tabs on the 1 while locking up the #2 then so be it. If Lackey is all you get, you guys aren't going anywhere. I think you have one 3 and a bunch of 4s and 5s. The ceiling of your 3 is a 2, but the ceilings of the 4s and 5s are probably not much higher. You are going to need a lock down #1.

[Spudboy]

Spud, you have to focus on the 1. If you are able to keep tabs on the 1 while locking up the #2 then so be it. If Lackey is all you get, you guys aren't going anywhere. I think you have one 3 and a bunch of 4s and 5s. The ceiling of your 3 is a 2, but the ceilings of the 4s and 5s are probably not much higher. You are going to need a lock down #1.

 

Again, I agree. I have been saying that the Sox need two top of the rotation arms for over a year. I like the idea of signing both Luxury Tax be damned.

[Soxfan83]

I have never lived in LA, but from what I understand, no place is as frenzied and no team's players are under as much scrutiny as they are in NY or Boston. The anxiety may or may not be an issue, but it is something to take into considertion when handing out that much money. Not to mention the draft pick that he will cost.

 

Somebody also brought up the very valid point that in LA, Greinke was not expected to be THE GUY. He had Kershaw to take some of that pressure off. If he came here, he would be expected to be THE GUY.

Ya, that's a valid point.

[a700hitter]

Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski reportedly ‘all in’ to get David Price

 

By Nik DeCosta-Klipa @NikDeCostaKlipa

Boston.com Staff | 11.23.15 | 10:07 PM

 

New Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski, is “all in” to acquire free agent pitcher David Price, according to Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci.

 

“I believe David Price is going to Boston,” Verducci said Monday on MLB Network, per CSNNE. “Dave Dombrowski is all in.”

 

The 30-year-old starting pitcher finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2015, after going 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA for the Toronto Blue Jays.

 

Dombrowski, who called pitching the team’s “primary focus” this offseason, made his first big move earlier this month, trading four prospects to the San Diego Padres for four-time All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel.

 

The Red Sox president also went on MLB Network Radio on Monday, calling the entire free agent pitching field, “particularly interesting, because there are quite a few guys out there.”

 

Along with Price, pitchers Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto are also free agents.

 

Dombrowski added Monday that there are “big decisions to be made

Hopefully, Verducci is right.

[example1]

Hopefully, Verducci is right.

 

What do you think it would cost to get him? Is there any price/years that would make you think they went overboard? I'm asking that seriously, not provocatively.

 

Starting pitchers

The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)

2. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)

3. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)

4. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)

5. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)

6. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)

7. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)

8. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18)

… Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)

9. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)

11. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)

12. Masahiro Tanaka, $22,142,857 (2014-20)

 

From here it looks like he probably warrants getting the 2nd highest AAV. If the Sox are definitely going to get him then they might have to beat what Kershaw is getting. It's hard to argue he's not better than Scherzer, or at least as good, and once you're at Scherzer's AAV you're less than a million away from Kershaw. He's not better than Kershaw but making him the highest paid pitcher (and second highest player) in baseball is exactly the kind of thing to get him to pick you over other high paying teams.

 

So, if it is 6 years/$185m is that too much? Sure seems like a lot.

[User Name]

In the current baseball economy, 180 million just won't buy what it used to. 6/185 may be a financial sacrifice the Sox will make in order to get a top-flight pitcher like Price. I've read some columnists pegging Greinke for less money (25/annum) and years (5) than Price, but higher probability for decline. However, a lot of people also think that Greinke's floor during his decline phase is a lot higher than Price's since he doesn't rely very much on velocity anyway.

 

It's really a matter of the current baseball economy. But if there's a team that has the capacity (and the need honestly) to absorb a higher-end pitching contract, it's the Red Sox. I've never been big on doling out big contracts to FA pitchers (and have said so multiple times) however, guys with track records of health and performance like Greinke and Price are the exception to the rule. A #1 ain't walking up from the farm system.

[Bellhorn04]

What do you think it would cost to get him? Is there any price/years that would make you think they went overboard? I'm asking that seriously, not provocatively.

 

Starting pitchers

The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value:

1. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)

2. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)

3. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)

4. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)

5. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)

6. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)

7. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)

8. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18)

… Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)

9. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)

11. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)

12. Masahiro Tanaka, $22,142,857 (2014-20)

 

From here it looks like he probably warrants getting the 2nd highest AAV. If the Sox are definitely going to get him then they might have to beat what Kershaw is getting. It's hard to argue he's not better than Scherzer, or at least as good, and once you're at Scherzer's AAV you're less than a million away from Kershaw. He's not better than Kershaw but making him the highest paid pitcher (and second highest player) in baseball is exactly the kind of thing to get him to pick you over other high paying teams.

 

So, if it is 6 years/$185m is that too much? Sure seems like a lot.

 

I think Price gets 7 years/$217 million.

 

The fact that Lester is #3 on the list tells you all you need to know about baseball inflation.

[Dojji]

... and this right here is exactly why our financial advantage is nowhere near as strong as it was. It's coming to the point where the economy is simply not there for even the richest teams to sign their way out of a bad phase. The free agents are on the verge of pricing themselves out of the market. This is a bubble that will eventually bust: the center cannot hold and when it goes, I think uit's going to be the players that get the worst of it.

 

The time is coming where the only way to be a surefire contender even for a big market team, is to develop your own internally, supplemented by maybe a small handful of mercenaries. The days of filling the roster from the free agent list are seriously nearly over, there's too much money and too much parity in the league just now. But the thing is, I think that's going to mean that a lot of B list FA's are going to struggle to find work because of the bloated contracts for the A-listers.

 

My personal take is I'd rather have 2 B-listers that are both highly durable, than blow our wad that 1 guy that's only going to be somewhat better and only shows up at all 1 day in 5. I'd rather go for John Lackey and Wei-Yin Chen together than any of the mercenary aces separately, if I thought that both were equally possible options. Aces are flashy but it's rotational depth that really wins in the end.

 

Or to put it another way exactly how many aces did the KC Royals have this year? Sure they brought in Cueto but Cueto didn't get the job done for them for the most part. They were carried on the backs of their B-listers and that powerful pen. (and a pretty deep offense, but we still have that too)

Edited November 25, 2015 by Dojji

[GomesBeard]

When you sign a guy to a 6 or 7 year contract, you assume years 5 - 6/7 are going to be wasted money. You just hope you get what you paid for in years 1-4.

[User Name]

... and this right here is exactly why our financial advantage is nowhere near as strong as it was. It's coming to the point where the economy is simply not there for even the richest teams to sign their way out of a bad phase. The free agents are on the verge of pricing themselves out of the market. This is a bubble that will eventually bust: the center cannot hold and when it goes, I think uit's going to be the players that get the worst of it.

 

The time is coming where the only way to be a surefire contender even for a big market team, is to develop your own internally, supplemented by maybe a small handful of mercenaries. The days of filling the roster from the free agent list are seriously nearly over, there's too much money and too much parity in the league just now. But the thing is, I think that's going to mean that a lot of B list FA's are going to struggle to find work because of the bloated contracts for the A-listers.

 

My personal take is I'd rather have 2 B-listers that are both highly durable, than blow our wad that 1 guy that's only going to be somewhat better and only shows up at all 1 day in 5. I'd rather go for John Lackey and Wei-Yin Chen together than any of the mercenary aces separately, if I thought that both were equally possible options. Aces are flashy but it's rotational depth that really wins in the end.

 

Or to put it another way exactly how many aces did the KC Royals have this year? Sure they brought in Cueto but Cueto didn't get the job done for them for the most part. They were carried on the backs of their B-listers and that powerful pen. (and a pretty deep offense, but we still have that too)

 

Weren't you saying the other day that the Sox "make bank"? While your theory is very much correct imo, in the context of this offseason the Sox have the financial might to sign both an ace and a B-list guy if they so desire, considering the commitments that will free up the next couple of seasons.

[Soxfan83]

Price will get 200 I'm pretty sure. Atleast how Rosenthol and Onley are talking. I'd be surprised if he signs for 185

[Kimmi]

So he might choke?

 

LOL Bell. Touche'.

 

This is not quite the same as choking though. This is not falling on one's face in high pressure situation, such as a playoff game. Greinke has shown that he is not a choker.

[Kimmi]

Again, I agree. I have been saying that the Sox need two top of the rotation arms for over a year. I like the idea of signing both Luxury Tax be damned.

 

It seems almost a given that the Sox are willing to go over the Luxury tax, at least based on all the speculation we've heard about signing Price. Giving up our draft pick, OTOH, does not seem to be as much of a given. The Sox would perhaps do it for Greinke, if they can't get Price, but I highly doubt they would part with the pick for Lackey or someone comparable.

[Kimmi]

Hopefully, Verducci is right.

 

There is speculation now that Dombrowski will beat the highest offer by $30-$40 million, if necessary. That is absolutely insane. Let the shuddering begin.

[Kimmi]

So, if it is 6 years/$185m is that too much? Sure seems like a lot.

 

Yes, it's too much, but honestly, that contract would not be too bad IMO because of it being 6 years. I would rather pay a slightly higher AAV for fewer years than sign him to a longer term contract. Personally, I don't see Price signing for anything under $200 mil and I don't see him signing anywhere for 6 years. My guess right now is that it will be closer to 7 years/$210 mil, or higher.

[Kimmi]

When you sign a guy to a 6 or 7 year contract, you assume years 5 - 6/7 are going to be wasted money. You just hope you get what you paid for in years 1-4.

 

And that's all fine, provided that the dead money does not keep the team from filling another need in 5-6 years. For that matter, we don't want some huge contract keeping the team from filling another need even during the good years of the contract.

[User Name]

There is speculation now that Dombrowski will beat the highest offer by $30-$40 million, if necessary. That is absolutely insane. Let the shuddering begin.

 

They would be factoring in the projected value of a 1st round pick IMO.

[example1]

In the current baseball economy, 180 million just won't buy what it used to. 6/185 may be a financial sacrifice the Sox will make in order to get a top-flight pitcher like Price. I've read some columnists pegging Greinke for less money (25/annum) and years (5) than Price, but higher probability for decline. However, a lot of people also think that Greinke's floor during his decline phase is a lot higher than Price's since he doesn't rely very much on velocity anyway.

 

It's really a matter of the current baseball economy. But if there's a team that has the capacity (and the need honestly) to absorb a higher-end pitching contract, it's the Red Sox. I've never been big on doling out big contracts to FA pitchers (and have said so multiple times) however, guys with track records of health and performance like Greinke and Price are the exception to the rule. A #1 ain't walking up from the farm system.

 

Great post UN. I wonder if Greinke is a sleeper here a little bit. I definitely like him to be a steady producer over the next few years. If he's somewhat cheaper than Price and could be had for fewer years I'd be more than happy with him. He's been quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball.

[Dojji]

Yeah that's one of the reasons I've had my eye on Greinke. He's really really really good, and I'm noticing that the hype machine for Price has taken center stage, overshadowing Greinke a bit and pulling everyone's attention in that direction. Price hype may allow you to quietly bring Greinke in for less than Price will fetch, but that ma be wishful thinking -- Greinke's agent will know that once Price goes, it'll be his turn on center stage and will advise his client to hold out until Price signs.

[User Name]

Not having draft pick compensation attached is also a major selling point for both Price and Cueto, although more so for the former than the latter.

[SoxFanForsyth]

There is speculation now that Dombrowski will beat the highest offer by $30-$40 million, if necessary. That is absolutely insane. Let the shuddering begin.

 

This is the ideology that I simply don't understand. The market rate for a guy like Price is 7/210mm. 7 years ago, CC got 8/186mm and blew the world away, that's an AAV of 23mm, or slightly more than what Porcello got.

 

So either you pay out the nose for a FA SP, with the expectation that you are getting 4-5 solid years, 1-2 mediocre seasons, but when those mediocre seasons come along, the pitcher is being paid at a mediocre players level with inflation at that point, or you keep finishing in last place,

 

People being upset/worried with the Sox for paying a huge price for Price, after they're raising ticket prices after two last place finishes, and this guy is the key to contending and potentially winning multiple World Series titles? Doesn't make sense

 

If this were the Phillies and Price takes them from a 72 win team to a 77 win team, fine, I get it. But he takes the Sox from a WC2 hopeful to an AL East and WS contender, and the value of that is extremely high

[Kimmi]

This is the ideology that I simply don't understand. The market rate for a guy like Price is 7/210mm. 7 years ago, CC got 8/186mm and blew the world away, that's an AAV of 23mm, or slightly more than what Porcello got.

 

So either you pay out the nose for a FA SP, with the expectation that you are getting 4-5 solid years, 1-2 mediocre seasons, but when those mediocre seasons come along, the pitcher is being paid at a mediocre players level with inflation at that point, or you keep finishing in last place,

 

People being upset/worried with the Sox for paying a huge price for Price, after they're raising ticket prices after two last place finishes, and this guy is the key to contending and potentially winning multiple World Series titles? Doesn't make sense

 

If this were the Phillies and Price takes them from a 72 win team to a 77 win team, fine, I get it. But he takes the Sox from a WC2 hopeful to an AL East and WS contender, and the value of that is extremely high

 

I want Price on the team as much as anyone. I understand the need to pay, and even to overpay for free agents now and then. That doesn't mean that I have to like the contract that a player will get.

 

If the Price contract doesn't keep the team from financially being able to fill other needs in the future, then all is well and good. If it does, then IMO, that's a problem.

 

Another problem is that a contract like that could very well end up blocking a younger and better pitcher from a spot in the rotation in 5-6 years. If Price is pitching like a #4/5 pitcher at the end of his contract, and we have better options in AAA, do you think Price is going to be benched with his $30 mil salary?

 

History has shown that signing pitchers, especially ones in their 30s, to large contracts is often not a good move. Again, I would love for the Sox to sign Price. I think my concerns about his contract are valid, however.

[jacksonianmarch]

You need Price plus one more pitcher. I think you'll still need to retool the pen, but with Kimbrel assuming the top spot, you don't have a lot of work to do. You need a 1 and a 2. The rest of your depth will sort itself out after that

[Soxfan83]

I still think the fact that Price has a career 1.85 (might be .10 off, too lazy to look it up at the moment) era at Fenway in 12 start is a clear indication that DD is going all in for him and that he is the clear cut number 1 target. He knows that. His agent knows that. Henry knows that. With that being said, there's not much getting around the overpaying part. Odds are he will give us that 3-5 year value on a 7 year contract.

[Soxfan83]

You need Price plus one more pitcher. I think you'll still need to retool the pen, but with Kimbrel assuming the top spot, you don't have a lot of work to do. You need a 1 and a 2. The rest of your depth will sort itself out after that

 

Ya, l know I been the minority on here. But I still think we should throw Kelly in the pen and sign another pitcher on top of Price. Maybe Samardjia or Chen.

[Soxfan83]

I know I slaughtered his name haha

[mvp 78]

You need Price plus one more pitcher. I think you'll still need to retool the pen, but with Kimbrel assuming the top spot, you don't have a lot of work to do. You need a 1 and a 2. The rest of your depth will sort itself out after that

 

No reason not to sign Price and trade for another frontline starter. Not sure it will happen though.

[SoxFanForsyth]

You need Price plus one more pitcher. I think you'll still need to retool the pen, but with Kimbrel assuming the top spot, you don't have a lot of work to do. You need a 1 and a 2. The rest of your depth will sort itself out after that

 

I actually disagree with this. Given how Porcello pitched at the end of the year last year, how Buch pitched (given you can only expect 120 IP from him), and the emergence of ERod, the Sox will be fine with 1 arm at the front of the rotation.

 

Price - Buchholz - ERod - Porcello - Miley is a completely fine rotation, particularly with Owens and Johnson waiting in the wings.

 

If the Sox do stick Kelly in the pen, along with Koji, Taz, and Kimbrel, they'll have a strong pen, too.

 

Given the progression the youth showed in the 2nd half of the year last year, landing Proce and Kimbrel puts the Sox as the AL East favorites, no doubt.

[User Name]

Favorites might be a bit of a stretch, considering the question marks at 1B, 3B, and how the rotation and BP actually play out, but certainly competitive.