2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[Kimmi]

Three last place finishes in four years is a golden shower.

 

Or, one could look at it as a World Series Championship 25% of the time.

[Kimmi]

You said it yourself. He made some good moves and some really lousy ones.

He got canned for the really lousy ones.

 

Do you think he screwed up the team for years to come or do they still have a good foundation of young players to build on?

 

I'm really not interested in quibbling over specific wording of one post.

 

This is what it boils down to.

 

I am wondering what Spud and a700 and others who strongly criticize Ben feel about this?

[SoxnCycles]

This is what it boils down to.

 

I am wondering what Spud and a700 and others who strongly criticize Ben feel about this?

 

You really have to wonder?

I don't....

[a700hitter]

Or, one could look at it as a World Series Championship 25% of the time.

 

I enjoyed the heck out of that World Championship. It was a dream come true to be at game 6 (even better that it was free), but I do shudder at the last place finishes.

[Kimmi]

Greinke opts out

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/report--zack-greinke-to-opt-out-of-contract-with-dodgers-201620443.html

 

So there's one more option there for teams looking for a high quality starting pitcher. What's more if I'm looking to unload a truckload of money on a starting pitcher to lead our rotation, Greinke is suddenly my #1 choice. If I once had any concerns about Greinke they were answered weith how well he performed in the big market in LA. The only thing holding me back from just flat out saying that if they want to win the Red Sox need this guy, is the fact that 29 other teams will have people in their FO saying the same thing so this man is going to make himself a LOT of money.

 

Pick up Greinke, add a good #3 like Wei-Yin Chen and do what you have to do to keep Eddie in the rotation. Move Buchholz down to the 4 spot and skip his spot in the rotation whenever you can, as if he was a #5, see if that allows him to maintain his health and pitch effectively. Keep Kelly and Miley in the bullpen as long relief in case you need them.

 

Greinke

Rodriguez

Porcello

Buchholz

Chen

 

That almost looks like a winnable rotation. It's also a very expensive rotation, but is this or is it not a major market?

 

Greinke is an intriguing possibility, but he is one I would be very wary about handing out a large contract to. First because of his age. Secondly, because of his anxiety disorder. LA may be a large market, but from what I understand, nothing compares to Boston or NY when it comes to media and fan scrutiny and frenzy. IMO, being able to perform in LA is not a sure sign that he will be able to perform in Boston.

 

Also, beware of his peripheal numbers. Greinke is still very good regardless, but with a BABIP of .229, an xFIP of 3.22, and a SIERA of 3.27, his ERA of 1.66 is a little misleading.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Shaw most likely can't hit like that over 162.

 

Kelly won 8 starts in a row... Seriously, that happened.

 

At one point, JBJ had an OPS above 1.000.

 

And with that, they still didn't get to .500. I'm not buying it. You can't extrapolate a portion of one season and say that is how they'll play over 162 for the next.

 

It's easy to make posts in the offseason and claim how great this team will be. Harder to stick around and post once the s*** hits the fan though, as can be noted in the meager late season game threads.

 

Sure, Shaw likely won't hit like that. But there were other players who also underachieved. Ortiz barely played the final two weeks. Guys like Rutledge and Craig were getting starts.

 

As for JBJ, he ended the season with very reasonable numbers. If your argument is the sequencing of his hits, that's just silly. Just because the hits were bunched doesn't mean it's not repeatable (overall numbers).

 

The team got better because the pitching got better. The pitching got better because the defense got better. The defense got better because the Sox had an elite defensive OF when they subbed in JBJ for Hanley. JBJ had a +15 Drs/year. Hanley had a -30. That's a plus 45 run differential.

 

As for the .500 comment, their pythag record was 81-81. They went from having a near -80 run differential to a positive run differential over the final two months, and once they reached Cle, it sank to -5.

 

You can absolutely set your expectations based on the wholesale changes the Sox made. Is the team, as constituted, a 90+ win team? Probably closer to 85-86. Add a couple strong pen arms and an ace? That tacks on 6-8 wins.

[Bellhorn04]

You said it yourself. He made some good moves and some really lousy ones.

He got canned for the really lousy ones.

 

Do you think he screwed up the team for years to come or do they still have a good foundation of young players to build on?

 

No, he didn't screw up the team for years to come, I would never say that. Theo left him a lot of good prospects, and we have acquired some more thanks to the last place finishes.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I liked Ben and I hope he gets another job. And he definitely did some good things. But he can't be given a pass for back-to-back losing seasons on a huge payroll, or Hanley and Panda, or the terrible 2015 pitching staff.

 

Not giving him a pass, that wasn't my intent. He made horrible signings and left holes (SP and bullpen specifically).

 

But in terms of the next 5 years?? This team is as set up for sustained success as any team in the majors.

 

Having a core of Betts, Bogaerts, ERod, and Swihart, all at the age of 23 or younger and all of which are very strong players, plus the #1 farm in all of baseball?

 

That's precisely what you look for when you're wanting a sustained run.

[Kimmi]

I enjoyed the heck out of that World Championship. It was a dream come true to be at game 6 (even better that it was free), but I do shudder at the last place finishes.

 

If you shudder at last place finishes, then you should shudder at the thought of the back end of a Price contract.

[SoxFanForsyth]

No, he didn't screw up the team for years to come, I would never say that. Theo left him a lot of good prospects, and we have acquired some more thanks to the last place finishes.

 

Eh, Benintendi is really the only good prospect we got via last place finishes. International signings represent a huge part, Espinoza, Margot, Devers, Moncada. That's where the Sox made their mark. And those were made by BC.

[Kimmi]

I would like to say to SoxFanForsythe - excellent posts. You should post more often.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If you shudder at last place finishes, then you should shudder at the thought of the back end of a Price contract.

 

If you're ok with paying Hanley to play elsewhere, you can't not be ok with the dead money you'd take in a long term deal for a SP. At the very least, you're getting innings out of Price in years 6-7.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I would like to say to SoxFanForsythe - excellent posts. You should post more often.

 

Appreciate it! Haven't posted in a while because of a newborn, but now she's 14 months so I can actually get back to this stuff a little more.

[Kimmi]

If you're ok with paying Hanley to play elsewhere, you can't not be ok with the dead money you'd take in a long term deal for a SP. At the very least, you're getting innings out of Price in years 6-7.

 

I am not okay with paying Hanley to play elsewhere. In a perfect world, Hanley will work hard this offseason, return next spring, and be able to play a decent 1B while rebounding offensively to where he was the past several years. That said, I realize that there is a strong likelihood that Hanley will be traded this offseason, with the Sox eating a significant part of his contract.

 

I will not be okay with dead money on Price's contract either. However, if that dead money does not keep us from remaining competitve, then it's not as big an issue.

[mvp 78]

Yup, daily "this team sucks" posts display true courage.

 

I guess the team didn't suck! Must have been some fever dream then!

[SoxFanForsyth]

I am not okay with paying Hanley to play elsewhere. In a perfect world, Hanley will work hard this offseason, return next spring, and be able to play a decent 1B while rebounding offensively to where he was the past several years. That said, I realize that there is a strong likelihood that Hanley will be traded this offseason, with the Sox eating a significant part of his contract.

 

I will not be okay with dead money on Price's contract either. However, if that dead money does not keep us from remaining competitve, then it's not as big an issue.

 

Ah! Then the point is moot! I assumed you were ok w paying Hanley to play elsewhere, but if not, disregard. My apologies.

[mvp 78]

I like the foundation, just not sold on them at 90 wins yet. If that makes me a Negative Nancy, oh well.

 

But let's just stifle any conversation that doesn't exactly mirror your world view! Now that would be an echo chamber worth reading everyday!

[SoxFanForsyth]

I like the foundation, just not sold on them at 90 wins yet. If that makes me a Negative Nancy, oh well.

 

But let's just stifle any conversation that doesn't exactly mirror your world view! Now that would be an echo chamber worth reading everyday!

 

Huh?? Was this intended for me? Where did I call you a negative nancy? Arguing my points isn't stifling the conversation, quite the contrary.

 

My whole argument is that with, say, Price (or equal ace), O'Day, and Kimbrell, along with moving Kelly to the pen, that team would win 90+.

 

Was never trying to stifle any conversation by any means

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Has there been any discussion on Jordan Zimmerman? I live near DC and have followed his career, he is a horse but not necessarily a lock down #1.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Has there been any discussion on Jordan Zimmerman? I live near DC and have followed his career' date=' he is a horse but not necessarily a lock down #1.[/quote']

 

Given his 2015 season, particularly as compared to his prior seasons, he seems like a great pillow contract guy.

[cp176]

Huh?? Was this intended for me? Where did I call you a negative nancy? Arguing my points isn't stifling the conversation, quite the contrary.

 

My whole argument is that with, say, Price (or equal ace), O'Day, and Kimbrell, along with moving Kelly to the pen, that team would win 90+.

 

Was never trying to stifle any conversation by any means

 

 

Do I get to take a shot at this one. I don't think that it was you he was talking about. It is obvious that we don't all share as much optimism as you do when looking toward the future but you don't express yourself in a mean spirited and nasty way. By the way - 2 new guys at the top and a different look in the bullpen and I'm with you on the 90 win potential.

[cp176]

I am not okay with paying Hanley to play elsewhere. In a perfect world, Hanley will work hard this offseason, return next spring, and be able to play a decent 1B while rebounding offensively to where he was the past several years. That said, I realize that there is a strong likelihood that Hanley will be traded this offseason, with the Sox eating a significant part of his contract.

 

I will not be okay with dead money on Price's contract either. However, if that dead money does not keep us from remaining competitve, then it's not as big an issue.

 

 

If Hanley Ramirez comes back and plays a decent first base and provides some pop in the lineup I will be ecstatically happy. I'm no Hanley hater, I just don't see enough there to get me to excited. He has had some decent seasons for sure but I would not call his career a model of consistency. With him playing any field position the risk of injury seems to be just about as good as Buchholtz's. But, I do think he will be back. I don't think they will release him and I don't think that he will be highly sought after by anyone else. He certainly has the potential to hit. If it is with us, i hope he gets it done.

[a700hitter]

Appreciate it! Haven't posted in a while because of a newborn, but now she's 14 months so I can actually get back to this stuff a little more.

Hey, SFF good to see you. Did you get to Fenway this season?

[a700hitter]

I guess the team didn't suck! Must have been some fever dream then!

Last place is just first place upside down.

[reYoukilis]

Huh? This team is an ace and 2-3 pen arms from being a 90+ win team.

 

C: Swihart: had an adjustment period, but from 6/19 to the end of season, he hit .311/.354/.458.

1B: Shaw: I think they dump Hanley, Shaw gets the start here. Sam Travis is a really promising prospect in AA, should start in AAA next year and be ready to contribute by mid season. I would sign a vet as a backup (Uribe?)

2B: Pedroia

SS: Bogaerta

3B: Sandoval (firmly believe he bounces back next year)

LF: Castillo

CF: Bradley

RF: Betts

DH: Ortiz

 

Hanigan/Vazquez

Holt

Rutledge

OF4 (FA)

 

Ace - Price preferably, but wouldn't be surprised if they go trade route here and get someone like Carrasco, or a bigger deal for Tyson Ross and Kimbrell

ERod

Buchholz

Miley

Porcello

 

Owens and Johnson as depth. Kelly to pen.

 

That team right there is literally 1-2 moves and is an easy WC contender. Dom can get bold and sign 1 and trade for 1 SP and turn this into a WS favorite, too.

 

But even if he doesn't, the Sox will be battling the Jays for the East next year with just an ace.

 

I expect big, bold moves this offseason. Like, 2-4 of them. But BC left an absolutely golden team set up for sustained success. To say otherwise is absurd

Maybe, assuming the play at the end of the season is who they really are and not the team in the middle and beginning. I think they played inspired once Farrell got sick. Will they sustain what they had going?

 

I think BCs moves are finally paying off too except the ones made before this last season. Porcello may turn out well but we lost our flexibility with the other high priced acquisitions. Now we need an ace.

[Kimmi]

Ah! Then the point is moot! I assumed you were ok w paying Hanley to play elsewhere, but if not, disregard. My apologies.

 

No need to apologize. I was okay with the Sox signing Hanley to the contract in the first place. Obviously, it hasn't worked out to date, but at the time, I felt that signing him for what I think was a reasonable contract was a good move.

[Kimmi]

I like the foundation, just not sold on them at 90 wins yet. If that makes me a Negative Nancy, oh well.

 

But let's just stifle any conversation that doesn't exactly mirror your world view! Now that would be an echo chamber worth reading everyday!

 

No one is trying to stifle any conversation. Carry on, sir.

[Kimmi]

If Hanley Ramirez comes back and plays a decent first base and provides some pop in the lineup I will be ecstatically happy. I'm no Hanley hater, I just don't see enough there to get me to excited. He has had some decent seasons for sure but I would not call his career a model of consistency. With him playing any field position the risk of injury seems to be just about as good as Buchholtz's. But, I do think he will be back. I don't think they will release him and I don't think that he will be highly sought after by anyone else. He certainly has the potential to hit. If it is with us, i hope he gets it done.

 

I think we would all be ecstatic if Hanley could do that. I am on record as saying many times that I am against putting Hanley at first base. The idea of him at first base makes me shudder. LOL Maybe he'll pleasantly surprise us.

 

If Hanley is our 1B to start the season next year, I think the FO has to be ready to pull the plug quickly on the first base experiment if it does not go well.

[mvp 78]

Huh?? Was this intended for me? Where did I call you a negative nancy? Arguing my points isn't stifling the conversation, quite the contrary.

 

My whole argument is that with, say, Price (or equal ace), O'Day, and Kimbrell, along with moving Kelly to the pen, that team would win 90+.

 

Was never trying to stifle any conversation by any means

 

Was not directed at you.

 

Kelly should most definitely be moved to the pen. He could be a huge plus there with his power arm.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Hey, SFF good to see you. Did you get to Fenway this season?

 

No dice this year. We actually moved from Boston right after we had my daughter to get closer to family. Miss the hell out of Boston, though.