2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[a700hitter]

Pretty much. The knock on Xander was that his defense would move him off the position. It's at least nice to know that he's capable of being consistent in the field. He doesn't have amazing range or a rifle arm, but I don't wince when a ball is hit his way.

Based on what I saw this year of XB and the rest of the league, I think it would be a well-deserved award. I don't know what the metrics indicate, but I would be surprised if he didn't show up well in those metrics.

[Spudboy]

I can't think of a lot of defensive standouts at SS in the AL except for Iglesias.

 

 

Good point. I was things the same way.

 

 

Hey, we all know Xander is not the best SS we have seen. It does seem that there are not too many stand out SS in the AL at the moment. Which is kind of odd.

[Spudboy]

Pretty much. The knock on Xander was that his defense would move him off the position. It's at least nice to know that he's capable of being consistent in the field. He doesn't have amazing range or a rifle arm, but I don't wince when a ball is hit his way.

 

 

This is a great way of characterizing his play. especially after the 2014 season where "I had to look away" when ball went in his direction.

[Kimmi]

I'm good with the fact that he has been recognized for his excellent play this year. If all of the stats say that there are some who performed better in the field, that is ok. I like him for the work that he put in and would hate to see him moved. He probably has a pretty good idea as to what his fielding shortcomes might be. If there any, I bet he attempts to address them this off season. If he is a fixture for us at short, i am a happy guy.

 

Bogaerts definitely deserves recognition for the hard work he put in last off season and for the improvements that he has made, both offensively and defensively. My post was not meant to be a knock on him. It was a knock on the atrocity that is known as the Gold Glove Awards.

[Kimmi]

It's a lot worse than that - apparently Shapiro said he strongly disagreed with some of Anthopolous' deadline deals. The deals which got them 2 wins from the pennant. This sure feels like Rogers is going to cheap out after building a team that can contend next year with just a couple of moves.

 

Yeah, I recently heard that about Shapiro. I feel bad for Anthopolous. From what I've heard, he put his heart and soul into the team. Jays fans and media are not happy. Rogers has a PR nightmare on his hands right now.

[Kimmi]

I can't think of a lot of defensive standouts at SS in the AL except for Iglesias.

 

There might not be any standouts, but that doesn't mean that Bogaerts should get the award, just because no one stands out. As I said, it's not an outrage that he was nominated. He's close enough to the top 3 to defend a nomination. I'd be willing to bet that some of the coaches voted for him based on his bat.

[Kimmi]

Based on what I saw this year of XB and the rest of the league, I think it would be a well-deserved award. I don't know what the metrics indicate, but I would be surprised if he didn't show up well in those metrics.

 

He is not the best defensive SS in the league. He does not deserve the award.

[mvp 78]

Kimmi going negative here. Yikes.

 

Who would you have nominated?

[a700hitter]

There might not be any standouts, but that doesn't mean that Bogaerts should get the award, just because no one stands out. As I said, it's not an outrage that he was nominated. He's close enough to the top 3 to defend a nomination. I'd be willing to bet that some of the coaches voted for him based on his bat.

 

If there is no standout and hecis close enough to the top three to get nominate then what is your problem with him being a finalist? You say he doesn't deserve the award, but you present nothing to back that up other than an assumption that his bat was considered by voters. The only SS that I can think of who is clearly better than XB defensively is Iglesias, andi don't think he had a very strong season.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi going negative here. Yikes.

 

Who would you have nominated?

 

No, I'm not going negative. I have never been a fan of GG Award because they are a joke, IMO. I love Bogaerts. I love the improvements that he has made defensively, and I give him all the recognition in the world for working hard and making such huge strides. As I said, my post was criticism of the award, not of Bogaerts.

 

Gregorius, Escobar, and Hardy should be the nominees, with Escobar being the winner, though I can see Gregorius winning it also.

[Kimmi]

If there is no standout and hecis close enough to the top three to get nominate then what is your problem with him being a finalist? You say he doesn't deserve the award, but you present nothing to back that up other than an assumption that his bat was considered by voters. The only SS that I can think of who is clearly better than XB defensively is Iglesias, andi don't think he had a very strong season.

 

The defensive standout shortstops are all in the NL. I said that it is not an outrage that Bogaerts was nominated. It's not like he's the worse SS in the league, or even below average. However, if one is being objective, Hardy deserves the nomination over Bogaerts. My problem with Bogaerts being a finalist when he's not one of the top three is that there is no integrity in that.

 

I didn't post anything to back up my opinion because I know how everyone here responds to defensive metrics. Also, UZR/150 and DRS are readily available at Fangraphs and SDI is available at SABR. It's not like what I'm basing my opinion on is a secret.

 

There is no way that managers or coaches can know who the best defensive shortstops were for the year, based on the limited number of games they can see the other teams' shortstops play. They rely a lot on reputation, which includes offensive reputation, and archaic stats, like fielding percentage.

[a700hitter]

No, I'm not going negative. I have never been a fan of GG Award because they are a joke, IMO. I love Bogaerts. I love the improvements that he has made defensively, and I give him all the recognition in the world for working hard and making such huge strides. As I said, my post was criticism of the award, not of Bogaerts.

 

Gregorius, Escobar, and Hardy should be the nominees, with Escobar being the winner, though I can see Gregorius winning it also.

Gregorius was very shaky early in the season. I am surprised if his metrics are so much better than Bogaerts.

[Spudboy]

Hardy is over rated. If anyone of the candidates benefits from reputation it would be him. And he has his "pop".

 

As you know, I don't care for UZR and UZR 150. They are poorly formulated and subjectively accumulated stats.

 

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. I can see who make the plays and evaluate his strengths in the requisite skills.

 

XB is pretty good, overall. But the glovey flashy types usually win.

 

Case in point. Kevin Pillar. Yeah, he made a bunch of spectacular plays this year. But is he actually better than Betts?

 

Too bad JBJ played only 74 games this year. He is clearly a Gold Glover.

[Kimmi]

Gregorius was very shaky early in the season. I am surprised if his metrics are so much better than Bogaerts.

 

They aren't "so much better", but they are better. Isn't the idea to give the award to the best defender at each position?

[Kimmi]

Hardy is over rated. If anyone of the candidates benefits from reputation it would be him. And he has his "pop".

 

As you know, I don't care for UZR and UZR 150. They are poorly formulated and subjectively accumulated stats.

 

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. I can see who make the plays and evaluate his strengths in the requisite skills.

 

XB is pretty good, overall. But the glovey flashy types usually win.

 

Case in point. Kevin Pillar. Yeah, he made a bunch of spectacular plays this year. But is he actually better than Betts?

 

Too bad JBJ played only 74 games this year. He is clearly a Gold Glover.

 

UZR is not poorly formulated. It is subjective to a certain extent, but far less subjective than the opinions of managers/coaches who barely get to see these players play. Far less subjective than errors and fielding percentage. You can tell by watching Bogaerts that he is pretty good. How do you know that he is better than Hardy, or any of the other AL shortstops? Unless you have watched all of them play the vast majority of their games, you can't.

 

The flashy types usually win. Why? Because the managers/coaches are voting for them. Advanced defensive metrics are not fooled by flashiness.

 

Defensive stats are not perfect, by any means. However, using them to determine Gold Glove winners is a far better method than relying on the votes of managers and coaches.

 

Why did Rawlings add a SABR component to the GG voting a couple of years ago? Because they know how little credence was given to those awards.

 

Since adding the SABR component, the Gold Gloves have been much improved.

[mvp 78]

Escobar had more errors, smaller range factor, and lower dwar than Xander.

[a700hitter]

They aren't "so much better", but they are better. Isn't the idea to give the award to the best defender at each position?

Gregorius's stats are not overwhelmingly better than Bogaerts' stats. They are somewhat better and the defensive metrics are not definitive of who is the best fielder when they are that close. I have seen a lot of both of them this year and I think XB was the equal of Gregorius this year. I was very critical of him last year, but I couldn't find fault with his defense this year. Edited November 1, 2015 by a700hitter

[jacksonianmarch]

Gregorius was a dumpster fire for April. Since then, he was gold glove worthy

[a700hitter]

Gregorius was a dumpster fire for April. Since then, he was gold glove worthy

 

I agree, and XB was very solid all year long, so it would not be a travesty to give it him. Gregorius was pretty bad for about the first 40 games.

[jacksonianmarch]

The advanced metrics aren't close. Fan graphs defensive rating of 14 for Didi and a UZR/150 of 8 while Xander's defensive rating was 8 and UZR/150 was less than 1. Didi also edges Escobar in those metrics

[Kimmi]

Escobar had more errors, smaller range factor, and lower dwar than Xander.

 

I am guessing you are using BR's stats for dwar and range factor. Errors are factored into the advanced metrics, and they do not say much in and of themselves. BR uses defensive runs saved to calculate dwar. Bogaerts had a DRS of 0 and Escobar's was -1, hence the 0.1 difference in dwar. I will grant you that Bogaerts was better than Escobar in that regard, by the narrowest of margins.

 

Range factor is based on the number of putouts and assists. There are any number of reasons why Escobar would not have as many chances for putouts and assists as Bogaerts did, including groundball to flyball ratio of pitchers and handedness of pitchers. In other words, it's not a great comparison of two players without taking those things into consideration.

 

Fangraphs has Escobar with a 13.9 dwar and Bogaerts with 8.0. Escobar's range runs saved (RngR) is 4.3 and Bogaerts is -4.6. Escobar's UZR/150 is 6.7 to Bogaerts .9. Lastly, SABR gives Escobar and SDI of 7.1 to Bogaerts .1 .

[Kimmi]

Gregorius's stats are not overwhelmingly better than Bogaerts' stats. They are somewhat better and the defensive metrics are not definitive of who is the best fielder when they are that close. I have seen a lot of both of them this year and I think XB was the equal of Gregorius this year. I was very critical of him last year, but I couldn't find fault with his defense this year.

 

Defensive metrics are better looked at over a larger sample of 3 years, rather than one, to get a good idea of a fielder's true defensive talent. That said, the stats over one year give you a fairly good idea of what a defender did on the field that year. The more stats you look at, the better the overall picture.

 

Jacko posted the numbers of Didi and Xander for dwar and UZR/150. They aren't as close as you make them out to be. Also, Didi has a DRS of 5 while Xander's is 0. SABR gives Didi an SDI of 3.2 over Xander's 0.1.

 

The Fielding Bible Awards are out, which I didn't realize. Andrelton Simmons from the NL won, hands down with 120 points. In the AL, Didi was the vote leader with 46 points, followed by Hardy, Escobar, Iglesisias, then Bogaerts, who received 17 points.

 

You are making me agree with Jacko and defend a Yankee player, which I don't like doing. So quit being a homer and stop.

[Kimmi]

I agree, and XB was very solid all year long, so it would not be a travesty to give it him. Gregorius was pretty bad for about the first 40 games.

 

It would not be a travesty, as it was to give Jeter the GG all those years, but it would also not be right. He was not the best SS defender in the AL this season. You want to give an award to a player just because it would not be a travesty?

[Kimmi]

The advanced metrics aren't close. Fan graphs defensive rating of 14 for Didi and a UZR/150 of 8 while Xander's defensive rating was 8 and UZR/150 was less than 1. Didi also edges Escobar in those metrics

 

Didi would have won the Fielding Bible Award if they gave an award to the best SS in each league. That said, Didi ranks only 3rd in SABR's SDI ratings, which is the SABR component of the Gold Gloves. It will be interesting to see whether Didi or Escobar wins that.

[jacksonianmarch]

The voters seem to like guys who have a track record. And they also like guys who hit for some reason. My guess is Xander wins it, although he definitely isn't worthy

[a700hitter]

Post season awards are all BS -- a popularity contest, but I am glad that Xander is getting recognition for his fielding.

[jacksonianmarch]

He was an average to above average defensive SS, which is saying something after how bad he was a year ago

[wyo-sox]

Appreciate it! Haven't posted in a while because of a newborn, but now she's 14 months so I can actually get back to this stuff a little more.

 

Enjoy being a daddy! Glad to have you posting on here again.

[Kimmi]

The voters seem to like guys who have a track record. And they also like guys who hit for some reason. My guess is Xander wins it, although he definitely isn't worthy

 

This is exactly what I said. The managers and coaches vote based on reputation and offense. This is why the saber component was added.

 

Xander should not win it, but he is by far more worthy of the award than Jeter was.

[Kimmi]

Post season awards are all BS -- a popularity contest, but I am glad that Xander is getting recognition for his fielding.

 

They're not all BS. But as long as there are people voting based on things like RBIs, errors, and pitcher's W-L record, they won't get it completely right.