2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[a700hitter]

I see that Douche and Cycles took a gratuitous shot at me. What a half wit douche.

[SoxnCycles]

I see that Douche and Cycles took a gratuitous shot at me. What a half wit douche.

 

Here's another: most of your posts are irrelevant crap.

[a700hitter]

There is talk about Cespedes getting a contract in the neighborhood of 6 years $150 million. I don't see the Mets in that neighborhood. The Mets will probably not even pony up the money to keep Daniel Murphy.

[a700hitter]

Dombrowski On Rotation, Bullpen, Craig, Payroll, Hanley, Outfield

By Steve Adams | October 13, 2015 at 5:09pm CDT

 

Red Sox president of baseball operations addressed the Boston media today and discussed a number of offseason-related topics. Some highlights from the session (all links to Twitter unless otherwise indicated)…

 

The team’s top priority this winter is finding a front-line starter, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets. He adds that Dombrowski said the team needs to find a “horse” to front the rotation. The Herald’s Scott Lauber tweets that Dombrowski said sorting out the back of the rotation won’t be the difficult part of the team’s offseajson pitching puzzle, with Dombrowski citing quality depth.

 

The Red Sox view Junichi Tazawa as a setup option, and while Koji Uehara is the current ninth-inning option, the team will look for additional closing options, tweets Mastrodonato.

 

Trading Allen Craig would be an “ideal” scenario, Dombrowski said (via the Providence Journal’s Tim Britton), but the president recognized that it’ll be difficult to find a taker for the first baseman/corner outfielder/DH. Craig is owed $21MM through the 2017 season (including the buyout on his 2018 club option).

 

Boston’s payroll will not go backwards in 2016, Dombrowski said (via Mastrodonato). As Mastrodonato points out, the team is shedding the contracts of Shane Victorino, Justin Masterson, Mike Napoli and others, giving the Sox a good deal of payroll flexibility this winter.

The Sox are still firmly committed to Hanley Ramirez playing first base in 2016, said Dombrowski (via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). Ramirez is owed $66MM over the next three seasons, and while the Sox will undoubtedly be open to moving him this winter, that would be a difficult task. Via Mastrodonato, Dombrowski said Travis Shaw and Sam Travis are both still valuable depth pieces at first base.

 

Regarding the outfield, Mastrodonato tweets that Dombrowski implied that the starters will be Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo, although Britton adds that Dombrowski seemed to express more confidence in Bradley than Castillo. The Sox will be looking for bench options for the outfield, Mastrodonato adds. I’d imagine that Brock Holt will see some time out there, although that certainly doesn’t rule out further additions, of course.

I suspect that the remarks about Hanley are just a cover story. DD dumped Prince Fielder after one season and he is not close to the zero that Hanley is. Edited October 14, 2015 by a700hitter

[sk7326]

I suspect that the remarks about Hanley are just a cover story. DD dumped Prince Fielder after one season and he is not close to the zero that Hanley is.

 

Fielder in 2013 was a pretty good comp for Hanley - atrocious defensively (at a much easier position!) but hit well enough to be a solid (if overpaid) player. Hanley of course did not hit after his left shoulder got hurt and that made his total package ho-ho-horrendous. Really if Hanley gets his stroke back, he can probably exceed Prince's total package as a 1B.

 

Dombrowski managed to trade one bloated contract for another - although in both Kinsler and Fielder's cases the players with the bloated contracts were actually decent. Fielder has had a nice bounceback this year ... which is not that surprising (a lot of his bad 2013 was just sheer bad luck on batted balls).

[Bellhorn04]

I suspect that the remarks about Hanley are just a cover story. DD dumped Prince Fielder after one season and he is not close to the zero that Hanley is.

 

Covering his bases, sure. He'll probably try to trade Hanley but if there are no deals that make sense the cover story will become the actual story.

 

I think DD has been sending some messages Hanley's way that he better get it together for 2016.

[cp176]

Obviously if he can unload Ramirez i think that his common sense meter is too good for him not to do it. We probably will be stuck with him. If that is the case, he will a DH in waiting posing as a first baseman. Believe it or not, the day will come when Ortiz hangs it up. If that happens sooner (as in a year or two), Hanley might actually still figure into things.

[Bellhorn04]

Obviously if he can unload Ramirez i think that his common sense meter is too good for him not to do it. We probably will be stuck with him. If that is the case, he will a DH in waiting posing as a first baseman. Believe it or not, the day will come when Ortiz hangs it up. If that happens sooner (as in a year or two), Hanley might actually still figure into things.

 

Agreed.

[cp176]

I suspect that the remarks about Hanley are just a cover story. DD dumped Prince Fielder after one season and he is not close to the zero that Hanley is.

 

If JbJ and Castillo are still around come spring, 2016 will determine whether or not they continue to play in boston. It is possible that we have players in our system who can give us more. That being said, no one tops JBJ in the field and Castillo still looks "potentially" very good. If they don't get it done early though, the younger better players will push them aside. Personally if one or even both of them were traded, I think that we would still be ok.

[iortiz]

Seems like landing Hamels wouldn't have been a bad idea after all.

[reYoukilis]

If JbJ and Castillo are still around come spring, 2016 will determine whether or not they continue to play in boston. It is possible that we have players in our system who can give us more. That being said, no one tops JBJ in the field and Castillo still looks "potentially" very good. If they don't get it done early though, the younger better players will push them aside. Personally if one or even both of them were traded, I think that we would still be ok.

I think Castillo is expendable in that his LF talent is wasted at home.

[Spitball]

I think Castillo is expendable in that his LF talent is wasted at home.

 

I think Castillo, with his contract, will be very difficult to move. The Sox are probably going to keep him.

[a700hitter]

I think Castillo, with his contract, will be very difficult to move. The Sox are probably going to keep him.

Plus, I don't think he is wasted in LF. He plays very well in LF, and as we have learned this year LF in Fenway is not as easy as it looks.

[cp176]

I think Castillo, with his contract, will be very difficult to move. The Sox are probably going to keep him.

 

I had forgotten about the size of his contract. I don't like it anymore now than I did then. I think that you are right. He might be hard to move. I'm tired of the potential tag applied to someone his age. Benintendi and Margot may both be much more consistent produces sooner than anyone thinks.

[jacksonianmarch]

Castillo is unmoveable right now. That being said, you don't want to move on from a guy who flashed potential but didn't get a lot of PT. His production is not akin to a guy with a 5 yr $60 mil contract. So dealing him would basically be paying for him to go away. Dombrowski isn't an idiot. I know people say he dealt Fielder away, but that was because Ilitch made him get Fielder and basically forced Cabrera to be out of position. He was able to take a fat and possibly career alteringly injured DH and deal him for a franchise 2b still in his prime. If the sox have to eat money to get a deal like that, then so be it, but he wont eat money and give a guy away unless he feels the player has no future in the game. I think Castillo gets one more season in Boston to show if he belongs

[sk7326]

Kinsler was 31 and coming off of a down season - really it was a trash for trash deal at the time. Clearly it worked out for Detroit - Kinsler has managed to remain solid in years that you'd expect a decline.

 

Castillo could be moved as part of a deal but not as a centerpiece. His salary is actually really fair for the guy he probably should be - not a steal, but not a ripoff. But it would be hard to expect someone to swallow the deal when a team doesn't have to.

 

Clearly the market for Ramirez will be explored ... I do think there could be a small market for him, because the deal is pricey, but not long ... and there is some reachable upside there. Teams with a corner infield opening will at least kick the tires.

[sk7326]

I had forgotten about the size of his contract. I don't like it anymore now than I did then. I think that you are right. He might be hard to move. I'm tired of the potential tag applied to someone his age. Benintendi and Margot may both be much more consistent produces sooner than anyone thinks.

 

That is very possible - now Benintendi cannot be dealt yet (well, except as a PTBNL). But Castillo's salary is not a drag if he builds on the 2nd half of last season. He's not that far away from being a "12 million" player in 2015/16 baseball dollars.

[sk7326]

Plus, I don't think he is wasted in LF. He plays very well in LF, and as we have learned this year LF in Fenway is not as easy as it looks.

 

What is clear is that playing left in Fenway does not seem to correlate with being a good athlete, or even being a good outfielder in general. I just look at the absolute train wreck Carl Crawford was there, which made no sense at all. By contrast, Manny - who was a horrendous outfielder in general, seemed to know what he was doing.

[jacksonianmarch]

sk, depends on which part of the second half you are looking at. His July was solid, but his entire second half was sub .700OPS.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I suspect that the remarks about Hanley are just a cover story. DD dumped Prince Fielder after one season and he is not close to the zero that Hanley is.

 

Dom was also quoted as saying "I can't speak for him specifically. But I was interested this winter time, I work out usually in the morning in the winter time and run the treadmill early at the ballpark. And I watch that Major League Baseball Network show religiously. And they had those commenters up there statistical guys and non-statistical guys. And they had the No 1. ranked left field going into 2015 as Hanley Ramirez, collectively. I remember at the time saying, 'How can people make that statement only to the sense they don't know if he can play left field or not.' So it's just interesting that a lot of other people there were making that summation that he could play left field."

 

That quote makes him sound pretty averse to trusting a guy to play a new position, particularly Hanley. Given that Hanley didn't play a single game at 1B last season, and isn't playing winter ball to practice this offseason, I find it incredibly hard to believe that the same guy who made the comment above would trust Hanley to a new position that sees, what, 4 times the amount of plays per game as a LF?

 

It's all lip service. Hanley is going to be dished this offseason. This is just like when Farrell was talking about how Cespedes was an integral part of the team after we signed Hanley.

[sk7326]

sk, depends on which part of the second half you are looking at. His July was solid, but his entire second half was sub .700OPS.

 

I agree that Castillo's value is still speculative. But the threshhold to be a worthwhile guy at that price is not that high. I expect he will be in Boston though regardless.

[jacksonianmarch]

In order to be worth that amount, he would need to show a combination of tools or just one special tool. He just doesn't have one special tool. He plays good defense according to UZR/150, but he also makes some boneheaded plays. He has good speed, but it hasn't translated into stolen bases. He has some power, but he wont be a 20+HR guy most likely. He has shown flashes that he can hit for average, but hasn't maintained it. A lot would have to go right for him to be worth $12 mil a season. This is why he isn't tradeable. It is certainly possible that he could do those things, but not sure he ends up doing them

[SoxFanForsyth]

In order to be worth that amount, he would need to show a combination of tools or just one special tool. He just doesn't have one special tool. He plays good defense according to UZR/150, but he also makes some boneheaded plays. He has good speed, but it hasn't translated into stolen bases. He has some power, but he wont be a 20+HR guy most likely. He has shown flashes that he can hit for average, but hasn't maintained it. A lot would have to go right for him to be worth $12 mil a season. This is why he isn't tradeable. It is certainly possible that he could do those things, but not sure he ends up doing them

 

To say a 12mm OF isn't tradable is silly. The value of 1 win was 7mm in 2014, and likely closed to 8mm in 2015, which means he would essentially have to be a 1.5 win player to justify his deal. Thus far, he's been a 1.3 win player in 90 games over his MLB career, which is about a 2.2 win player over 150G. Given the fact that he's got more upside than what he's shown, $12mm for him isn't an overpay by any means. He wouldn't bring back a stud prospect, but he certainly has value.

 

An interesting trade that would never happen? What about Ellsbury, contract down to $16mm AAV for Castillo?

[sk7326]

To say a 12mm OF isn't tradable is silly. The value of 1 win was 7mm in 2014, and likely closed to 8mm in 2015, which means he would essentially have to be a 1.5 win player to justify his deal. Thus far, he's been a 1.3 win player in 90 games over his MLB career, which is about a 2.2 win player over 150G. Given the fact that he's got more upside than what he's shown, $12mm for him isn't an overpay by any means. He wouldn't bring back a stud prospect, but he certainly has value.

 

An interesting trade that would never happen? What about Ellsbury, contract down to $16mm AAV for Castillo?

 

You are right - it won't happen. What is funny is that the hypothesis of letting Ellsbury go has been more or less ok. He was solid last year - but this year we got "injured and sucky" Ellsbury. In other words, welcome to his whole career.

[Spitball]

To say a 12mm OF isn't tradable is silly.

 

At this point, Castillo is a $60 million outfielder (through 2020) who managed just a .647 OPS last season. He is already 27 years-old, and I can't see why anyone would trade a player of value for the gamble that he will be worth that kind of money.

[Gringo]

Crikey, Cherington dug us a f*cking hole

[Kimmi]

I agree that Castillo's value is still speculative. But the threshhold to be a worthwhile guy at that price is not that high. I expect he will be in Boston though regardless.

 

I don't see Castillo being traded either. While his value is still speculative, it won't take much for him to be worth his contract if he can stay healthy. If he plays up to the potential the scouts were describing in him, he could end up being a very good deal, despite the first year being more or less a lost season.

[reYoukilis]

Crikey, Cherington dug us a f*cking hole

Basically. All we have to trade now is our future prospects. Although in the article 700 posted about Dombrowskis plan, a name mentioned as being trade bait is Allen Craig. Were saved!!!

[Kimmi]

Crikey, Cherington dug us a f*cking hole

 

No, not really. The needs of this team are certainly easily enough fixed to make the team competitive in 2016. Not that it's going to be a piece of cake, but by no means will it require a complete overhaul.

[mvp 78]

Hanley, Panda, Castillo, Porcello extension - very questionable moves.

 

Thanks for 2013. Can't win with lightning in a bottle every year though.