2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[cp176]

I was surprised we splurged all that money on Sandoval & Hanley Ramirez. One of them ok... both of them it didn't make sense financially. Dombrowski might have to pull another "Nick Punto" trade just to get out from all that salary.

 

And our starting rotation still looks to be a mess. We have a couple of guys who might be #2-5 starting pitchers but no clear cut #1. Buchholz we will likely pick up his option, but even if we do he has never been able to stay healthy a whole season.

 

Free agent pitchers: Cueto, Price, Greinke, Zimmerman, Samardzija. The top 3 of that group could easily be a #1 pitcher for an interested team, perhaps the Red Sox.

 

Harvey is going to be VERY expensive. Sonny Gray might turn out as good eventually and his price in terms of capital is probably more affordable.

 

IF Oakland accepts a package centered around JBJ, I think Dombrowski makes a move. Swihart, I would rather keep. Very hard to find good young catchers with offensive upside.

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2015/10/7/9468237/the-2015-2016-buyers-guide-trade-edition

 

I think that he would make that type of move in a heartbeat. With Betts, XB, and E-Rod probably off the table, most teams will want something significant for a player like Gray. I hope he sticks but Swihart's name is going to get thrown around a lot. If he isn't our starting catcher next year, I think that he plays somewhere else.

[Dojji]

THere is no way -- none -- that JBJ is the center of a meaningful trade deal for a top starter. His half year is encouraging but overall right now he's a roleplayer with a bit of room to grow. you could use him to secure something useful but not a #1 starter.

[cp176]

THere is no way -- none -- that JBJ is the center of a meaningful trade deal for a top starter. His half year is encouraging but overall right now he's a roleplayer with a bit of room to grow. you could use him to secure something useful but not a #1 starter.

 

I agree with you on this one. To go one step further, we saw some encouraging signs from JBJ as well as from Castillo, but the only one that looks like a solid all around keeper out there at this point is Betts. As good as they look defensively, they have to be able to hit a little. No one is going to let a young ace go for hood ornaments and hopefuls. If Betts, XB, and E-Rod are off the table, who would you be interested in. I know who would interest me.

[Dojji]

I think that you can deal neither of Swihart or Vazquez in the offseason, both for the same reason, Vazquez' TJ surgery recovery. If Vazquez can put up even a .650 OPS with his glove he's at least a fringe starter and should have some respectable trade value, but we don't know that yet and neither do other teams. And if he can't hit you're going to be glad you have Swihart and Vazquez will be a great backup. That means that the price of Vazquez is low, and the risk of dealing Swihart is nontrivial.

[reYoukilis]

True. I think we have to see a decent sample size of Vasquez post operation before we trade one of the catchers.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, I think Seihart is absolutely available. The trend around baseball is for the C position to be defense first and maybe only. Swihart may have been touted as a good defender in the minors, but he did not show that in the bigs. He looks to be more of a hit first average to below average D guy who might see himself off position whereas Vasquez has shown that his D is above average and has the potential to be elite. Also, if a lineup is built well, you can survive with an offensive black hole at C whereas it is very hard to live with a defensive black hole at C nowadays. I don't think either gets dealt this offseason, but should the right deal come about, it makes sense. Plus, you still have a year of Hanigan who looked really good this last season as well.

[Orange Juiced]

Dojji, I think Seihart is absolutely available. The trend around baseball is for the C position to be defense first and maybe only. Swihart may have been touted as a good defender in the minors, but he did not show that in the bigs. He looks to be more of a hit first average to below average D guy who might see himself off position whereas Vasquez has shown that his D is above average and has the potential to be elite. Also, if a lineup is built well, you can survive with an offensive black hole at C whereas it is very hard to live with a defensive black hole at C nowadays. I don't think either gets dealt this offseason, but should the right deal come about, it makes sense. Plus, you still have a year of Hanigan who looked really good this last season as well.

 

Because offense is down from a decade ago, any offense you get from primarily defensive positions is a significant competitive advantage. Swihart's defense seemed to be just fine. Not nearly the defender Vazquez is, but he was close to league average as a defender. It's his offensive potential that makes him stand out. Not saying that he won't be traded, but he'll be a very valuable piece if he IS traded.

[Kimmi]

And this is on Fenway's fast rigged gun.

 

I'm not sure where you got that stat, but I'm pretty sure that it didn't come from Fenway's "fast rigged gun".

[Kimmi]

Dojji, I think Seihart is absolutely available. The trend around baseball is for the C position to be defense first and maybe only. Swihart may have been touted as a good defender in the minors, but he did not show that in the bigs. He looks to be more of a hit first average to below average D guy who might see himself off position whereas Vasquez has shown that his D is above average and has the potential to be elite. Also, if a lineup is built well, you can survive with an offensive black hole at C whereas it is very hard to live with a defensive black hole at C nowadays. I don't think either gets dealt this offseason, but should the right deal come about, it makes sense. Plus, you still have a year of Hanigan who looked really good this last season as well.

 

Swihart did an admirable job considering that he was thrown into the fire a full year before he was expected to be in the bigs. He had to learn on the job this year. Also, he is only 23 years old. From what I understand, catchers usually don't hit their stride defensively until several years later. He should be very good defensively.

 

That said, I prefer a defensively elite catcher behind the plate. If Vazquez shows he is healthy, I like the Vazquez/Hanigan tandem. At the same time, I do not want Swihart to be traded.

[Spitball]

He looks to be more of a hit first average to below average D guy who might see himself off position...

 

It is way too early to draw this conclusion, and I can't see any justification for making it. Due to injury to Hanigan, his developmental period was interrupted. He was in over his head both offensively and defensively for the first couple of months. Under the circumstances, his defensive performance and numbers do not reflect his future.

 

He has caught only 688 innings. His athleticism and arm strength are indicators he will improve.

Edited October 13, 2015 by Spitball

[cp176]

It is way to early to draw this conclusion, and I can't see any justification for making it. Due to injury to Hanigan, his developmental period was interrupted. He was in over his head both offensively and defensively for the first couple of months. Under the circumstances, his defensive performance and numbers do not reflect his future.

 

He has caught only 688 innings. His athleticism and arm strength are indicators he will improve.

 

Plus - He really wasn't all that bad offensively or defensively this year. Maybe it is a stretch but I think he was pretty good regardless of the age and experience factor.

[a700hitter]

I'm not sure where you got that stat, but I'm pretty sure that it didn't come from Fenway's "fast rigged gun".

You are sure?

[Bellhorn04]

And this is on Fenway's fast rigged gun.

 

Nah, the rigged gun went to Chicago with Theo.

[a700hitter]

Nah, the rigged gun went to Chicago with Theo.

I have heard theories that Fenway's gun gives faster readings because of it's closer proximity to the field than guns at other ballparks.

[jacksonianmarch]

I watched a fair amount of sox games and I think the metrics and my eyes can see that Swihart was well behind both Vasquez and Hanigan defensively. Well behind. He appeared to be a below average defender.

[Dojji]

I watched a fair amount of sox games and I think the metrics and my eyes can see that Swihart was well behind both Vasquez and Hanigan defensively. Well behind. He appeared to be a below average defender.

 

He's also green, and was promoted a lot earlier than the team originally intended due to injuries to Vazquez and Hanigan. Experience should improve his defense to an acceptable level. Besides, being behind 2 great defenders defensively isn't saying a ton.

 

After all neither Varitek nor Posada were without their flaws defensively, Varitek didn't have the best arm, and Posada had some work to do as a receiver as I recall, both were offense guys first that gradually learned in their own way to improve their defensive game and both catchers helped their team win the World Series more than once.

 

My personal opinion is that patience with Swihart will be rewarded. The tools are there, all that is required is good coaching, experience, and not getting hurt. I think Swihart is at the same talent level as Varitek or Posada and whether he realizes that potential comes down to whether he can learn how to be a smart catcher defensively to cover for the gaps in his natural talent. He's already hitting at a very acceptable level as a catcher too so the fact that that's very likely to improve over time is exciting.

Edited October 13, 2015 by Dojji

[Spudboy]

I watched a fair amount of sox games and I think the metrics and my eyes can see that Swihart was well behind both Vasquez and Hanigan defensively. Well behind. He appeared to be a below average defender.

 

He certainly needs to work on blocking balls. Too many of them get away from him.

[sk7326]

Throwing for the catcher is a complicated business since the base-stealing apparatus is a team effort. Historically the Red Sox had not made it much of a priority - which is not crazy, since getting the batter out solves most problems. That dampened Varitek's stats on that area.

 

Clearly this year the pitch framing loss of Vasquez was significant ... He and Ross were excellent pitch framers who saved runs, while this year Swihart was a slight minus there (Hanigan was a plus, Leon was worse). At the same time, Swihart's growth curve this year was striking. If he makes the sort of improvement you expect from young players who have shown the ability to improve already - he's the clear starter entering next season and a solid likelihood of being a Top 10 catcher.

[SoxnCycles]

I have heard theories that Fenway's gun gives faster readings because of it's closer proximity to the field than guns at other ballparks.

 

Pitch/Fx does not use radar guns.

Not surprised you didn't know this.

 

Still driving a Desoto?

[jacksonianmarch]

Sk, his growth curve offensively was striking. Defensively, he looked a little slower on the uptake and slower in getting behind blocked balls, etc. He just didn't look like a future good defensive catcher.

[Spudboy]

Sk, his growth curve offensively was striking. Defensively, he looked a little slower on the uptake and slower in getting behind blocked balls, etc. He just didn't look like a future good defensive catcher.

 

That's fair, I guess.

 

But you do have to factor in his youth and the fact that he was up way early out of need.

[sk7326]

That's fair, I guess.

 

But you do have to factor in his youth and the fact that he was up way early out of need.

 

Good athletes who have shown the ability to learn and grow are always good bets at his age.

[Kimmi]

You are sure?

 

No, I said I am pretty sure. I can't be sure without knowing what the source of your stat is.

[Kimmi]

Plus - He really wasn't all that bad offensively or defensively this year. Maybe it is a stretch but I think he was pretty good regardless of the age and experience factor.

 

He was worth 1.5 WAR, with having only played 84 games. And his offense was pretty bad the first half of the year. Considering the situation that he was thrown into, he did a very admirable job.

[a700hitter]

No, I said I am pretty sure. I can't be sure without knowing what the source of your stat is.

i got it either from an MLBtraderumor article ( which is usually from a Boston beat writer) or from a Herald article. The didn't cite their source.

[Kimmi]

Pitch/Fx does not use radar guns.

Not surprised you didn't know this.

 

Still driving a Desoto?

 

I'm not sure what the source of his data is. It could be a source that is not using Pitch/FX. Why, I don't know. The point about the use of Pitch/FX is an important and valid one.

 

He knows Pitch/FX does not use radar guns because I posted that not too long ago to explain that there is pitch velocity data is no longer tainted by inconsistently calibrated radar guns.

[Kimmi]

i got it either from an MLBtraderumor article ( which is usually from a Boston beat writer) or from a Herald article. The didn't cite their source.

 

Then you do not know that the data came from Fenway's rigged radar guns.

 

Again, I am pretty sure that it did not.

[a700hitter]

Then you do not know that the data came from Fenway's rigged radar guns.

 

Again, I am pretty sure that it did not.

And you are seizing on and making an issue of a throw away line in my post. Lol!

[Kimmi]

And you are seizing on and making an issue of a throw away line in my post. Lol!

 

Well, I just can't let stuff like that fly.

[a700hitter]

Well, I just can't let stuff like that fly.

yep, seize on the irrelevant and miss the point time after time.