Who is the Biggest Problem Right Now?

[jd98]

The FO might not have ignored the rotation, but they did a poor job addressing it when the pitching would likely be better if they had ignored it. Erod, Wright, and a 3rd AAA guy instead of Porcello, Miley, and Masterson. Not saying it would be better over the entire season and beyond, but using the results so far it's unquestionably better. Which brings up an interesting question. Was the initial Pawtucket rotation better than the Boston rotation? ERod, Wright, Owens, Johnson, Barnes(?) vs Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly and Masterson.

 

I'm fine with the Hanley signing and hope they don't trade him. The best hitting prospects are already on the team or in A ball. Hanley was looking like an MVP until he hurt his shoulder (which of course is one of the knocks on him). I don't know about the attitude problems, I'm not there. However, if you thought Hanley had attitude problems and Panda had fat problems, and you anticipated those staying problems, and you sign them both to big contracts anyway, then you can't put the blame on the players for that.

[sk7326]

This post is worth its weight in online gold.

 

I've always said this - I have issues getting too critical of Ben because I am never sure how much control he has. There are moves which seem like the result of a GM running a baseball team, and there are other moves which seem like operating NESNs flagship TV series. Now one can say "you don't know - you're not there", but there is a schizo nature to some of the moves at time which seems to point to this. Now one can also say "why doesn't Ben quit?", but Boston is a great place, there are only 30 of these jobs, and when people get out of your way you can win a World Series or 3.

[cp176]

The FO might not have ignored the rotation, but they did a poor job addressing it when the pitching would likely be better if they had ignored it. Erod, Wright, and a 3rd AAA guy instead of Porcello, Miley, and Masterson. Not saying it would be better over the entire season and beyond, but using the results so far it's unquestionably better. Which brings up an interesting question. Was the initial Pawtucket rotation better than the Boston rotation? ERod, Wright, Owens, Johnson, Barnes(?) vs Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly and Masterson.

 

I'm fine with the Hanley signing and hope they don't trade him. The best hitting prospects are already on the team or in A ball. Hanley was looking like an MVP until he hurt his shoulder (which of course is one of the knocks on him). I don't know about the attitude problems, I'm not there. However, if you thought Hanley had attitude problems and Panda had fat problems, and you anticipated those staying problems, and you sign them both to big contracts anyway, then you can't put the blame on the players for that.

 

 

I posed this question earlier in the spring. E-Rod - Barnes - Owens - Wright - Johnson- I would prefer watching this group suffer through their growing pains together as opposed to what we are sending to the mound these days.

[Kimmi]

The problem is not in the valuation of the players. Every reasonable, unbiased, and objective forecaster had the Sox being a good and competitive team. I read this morning that, to date, Pedroia and Victorino are the only 2 starters who are performing at or above their PECOTA projections, and those projections tend to be conservative. Victorino's been on the DL, so that really only leaves Pedroia.

 

You can reasonably expect some players to underperform their projections, maybe 1 or 2 players by a lot, but you also would expect some players to overperform. We are not getting any overperformances.

 

Porcello now has the 2nd worst ERA of all qualified starters, ahead of only Shane Green. Miley, Kelly, and Masterson also all have career worst ERAs this season. That is just inexplicable.

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello now has the 2nd worst ERA of all qualified starters, ahead of only Shane Green. Miley, Kelly, and Masterson also all have career worst ERAs this season. That is just inexplicable.

 

There's always an explanation - we just don't know what it is.

 

In Porcello's case, he's had a lot of change. New team, 2 new pitching coaches, 3 new catchers, and undoubtedly a lot more pressure than he's ever felt, especially with the $83.5 million extension.

 

What I'm really worried about is what UserName has mentioned about them tinkering with his approach to make him more of a strikeout pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Another questionable move that was mostly overlooked was Ranaudo for Ross. Sure, Ranaudo looked bad in his brief stint in MLB and Sox had plenty of SP prospects, but for Robbie f***ing Ross. Ranaudo was expendable, but he was still a top 10 prospect at the time, so for Robbie Ross? Seriously? Robbie Ross? The 2 worst ERA's in the AL last year, minimum 70 IP were

Robbie Ross 6.20 ERA in 78.1 IP (with equally bad peripherals)

Justin Masterson 5.51 ERA in 98 IP (was even worse after going to NL)

 

And right on cue, Ranaudo pitches 6.1 scoreless on Friday night.

[Elktonnick]

And right on cue, Ranaudo pitches 6.1 scoreless on Friday night.

 

It is interesting to rermember since Lester and Buchholtz the Red Sox farm system has failed to develop a true major league starter. There is something amiss in their player development and evaluation process IMO

[User Name]

What do you base this opinion on? Developing MLB SP is an inexact science. It's easy to complain about player development and evaluation when you don't know how it works or what their philosophy is.

[iortiz]

It is interesting to rermember since Lester and Buchholtz the Red Sox farm system has failed to develop a true major league starter. There is something amiss in their player development and evaluation process IMO

 

Assembling pitching staffs never have been their forte.

[NativeBostonian]

What do you base this opinion on? Developing MLB SP is an inexact science. It's easy to complain about player development and evaluation when you don't know how it works or what their philosophy is.

 

Maybe we just need to hire whomever is scouting for the Tampa Bay Rays. Because it seems like no matter who they lose in their rotation, they have a guy who is better then the last. They replace Scott Kazmir with David Price. Price with Chris Archer. f*** it is a never ending cycle of talented arms.

[User Name]

But their offensive homegrown talent sucks. It's usually a matter of development/drafting strategy. Also, all of those 1st rd picks they amassed over the years, didn't hurt, and they've recycled most of the high-talent arms they were bound to lose via FA into younger high-talent arms, helping them cycle pitching seamlessly.

[sk7326]

They also did build to the ballpark - which has always been pitcher friendly. Also their market I think is a factor - it's sort of what Beane did with his change in Oakland. It's cheaper to build around run prevention than scoring - and the Rays have always had quality defenses to go with the pitching (which makes the numbers look even better). But a lot of it has come at the expense of the offense. And yes, the high draft picks matter - picks the Sox rarely get (and indeed have not gotten in those special sorts of years).

[iortiz]

Maybe we just need to hire whomever is scouting for the Tampa Bay Rays. Because it seems like no matter who they lose in their rotation, they have a guy who is better then the last. They replace Scott Kazmir with David Price. Price with Chris Archer. f*** it is a never ending cycle of talented arms.

 

As I said few years ago, they should have landed Andrew Friedman, now it's too late, he is in LA.

[a700hitter]

 

Porcello now has the 2nd worst ERA of all qualified starters, ahead of only Shane Green. Miley, Kelly, and Masterson also all have career worst ERAs this season. That is just inexplicable.

This is not inexplicable. It was completely foreseeable. A 5+ ERA was not foreseeable, but being bad was foreseeable. Being good was hopefulness without any statistical support. Porcello is a career 4.40 ERA pitcher with 1,100+ innings under his belt. That is no small sample size. That is what he is a 4+ ERA starting pitcher -- a number 3 to 5 at best. He is by no stretch of the imagination or statistical manipulation a top of the rotation guy. Miley is a career 3.80 ERA pitcher in the NL with over 600 IP. Put him in the AL and he is a 4+ ERA making him a #4 or 5. Masterson is a career 4.30 ERA pitcher with almost 1,200 IP. Add to that his recent loss of velocity. Kelly is an unaccomplished 27 year old and Buch has been the epitomy of inconsistency. It was to be expected that this staff would stink even if they performed to career norms. Their career norm is a 4+ ERA and that just doesn't cut it in today's game. The result will be a very bad team. Our hitting is hot now and it has been getting a lot of hits in June. I think we are right up there in hits in June, but we still stink as a team. Ben, it's the pitching stupid!

[iortiz]

This is not inexplicable. It was completely foreseeable. A 5+ ERA was not foreseeable, but being bad was foreseeable. Being good was hopefulness without any statistical support. Porcello is a career 4.40 ERA pitcher with 1,100+ innings under his belt. That is no small sample size. That is what he is a 4+ ERA starting pitcher -- a number 3 to 5 at best. He is by no stretch of the imagination or statistical manipulation a top of the rotation guy. Miley is a career 3.80 ERA pitcher in the NL with over 600 IP. Put him in the AL and he is a 4+ ERA making him a #4 or 5. Masterson is a career 4.30 ERA pitcher with almost 1,200 IP. Add to that his recent loss of velocity. Kelly is an unaccomplished 27 year old and Buch has been the epitomy of inconsistency. It was to be expected that this staff would stink even if they performed to career norms. Their career norm is a 4+ ERA and that just doesn't cut it in today's game. The result will be a very bad team. Our hitting is hot now and it has been getting a lot of hits in June. I think we are right up there in hits in June, but we still stink as a team. Ben, it's the pitching stupid!

Few weeks ago I said that he probably was trying to improve his K/9. I have no evidence if this is true. I haven't seen or heard that from him or from the pitching staff, pure speculation and conjectures.

 

If the last is true and if they wanted to improve his K/9, wouldn't have been better wait and see how this could have worked out before giving him that extension?.

 

While I think that Ben and Farrell have to go, but I do not think they are that stupid so IMO, the blame and the responsible for his horrible performance is exclusively on Porcello. As I said he has always been a mediocre pitcher.

Edited June 21, 2015 by iortiz

[Kimmi]

There's always an explanation - we just don't know what it is.

 

In Porcello's case, he's had a lot of change. New team, 2 new pitching coaches, 3 new catchers, and undoubtedly a lot more pressure than he's ever felt, especially with the $83.5 million extension.

 

What I'm really worried about is what UserName has mentioned about them tinkering with his approach to make him more of a strikeout pitcher.

 

I read today that the Sox are now saying that they want Porcello to go back to his old approach. Porcello used to throw his sinker 50-60% of the time. This year he's throwing it about 34% of the time. As a result, he is getting more Ks, but his ground ball rate is at a career low while his fly ball and HR rates are at career highs. As we have all seen, he is getting hit hard.

 

He has supposedly been working for a couple of weeks now on getting the effectiveness of the sinker back to where it was before this year. Apparently, throwing the 4 seamer more has affected the rotation of his sinker to the point where it is not as good as it was last year.

 

Whether this initial change in approach was encouraged by the Sox or not is speculation, but supposedly the Sox thought they could get Porcello to improve his overall game by improving his K rate.

[Kimmi]

This is not inexplicable. It was completely foreseeable. A 5+ ERA was not foreseeable, but being bad was foreseeable. Being good was hopefulness without any statistical support. Porcello is a career 4.40 ERA pitcher with 1,100+ innings under his belt. That is no small sample size. That is what he is a 4+ ERA starting pitcher -- a number 3 to 5 at best. He is by no stretch of the imagination or statistical manipulation a top of the rotation guy. Miley is a career 3.80 ERA pitcher in the NL with over 600 IP. Put him in the AL and he is a 4+ ERA making him a #4 or 5. Masterson is a career 4.30 ERA pitcher with almost 1,200 IP. Add to that his recent loss of velocity. Kelly is an unaccomplished 27 year old and Buch has been the epitomy of inconsistency. It was to be expected that this staff would stink even if they performed to career norms. Their career norm is a 4+ ERA and that just doesn't cut it in today's game. The result will be a very bad team. Our hitting is hot now and it has been getting a lot of hits in June. I think we are right up there in hits in June, but we still stink as a team. Ben, it's the pitching stupid!

 

You can't always base a player's performance for the upcoming year on career numbers. Players do improve, especially if they are entering their prime. It was not unreasonable to expect that Porcello could pitch closer to last year's numbers than to his career numbers.

 

As far as the other guys go, none of them were expected to be top of the rotation guys, though Buchholz has his moments. They were expected to be either solid middle or back end guys. Players like Masterson rebound from injury all the time.

 

Again, no one expected a top rotation, but rather a mediocre one. The way they are pitching is far from mediocre. It's been mostly horrendous.

[NativeBostonian]

But their offensive homegrown talent sucks. It's usually a matter of development/drafting strategy. Also, all of those 1st rd picks they amassed over the years, didn't hurt, and they've recycled most of the high-talent arms they were bound to lose via FA into younger high-talent arms, helping them cycle pitching seamlessly.

 

Evan Longoria, B.J Upton, Carl Crawford just to name a few.

[iortiz]

You can't always base a player's performance for the upcoming year on career numbers. Players do improve, especially if they are entering their prime. It was not unreasonable to expect that Porcello could pitch closer to last year's numbers than to his career numbers.

 

As far as the other guys go, none of them were expected to be top of the rotation guys, though Buchholz has his moments. They were expected to be either solid middle or back end guys. Players like Masterson rebound from injury all the time.

 

Again, no one expected a top rotation, but rather a mediocre one. The way they are pitching is far from mediocre. It's been mostly horrendous.

 

IMO last year was a fluke year. He is more likely a 4.5 ERA pitcher, probably little worse. Why? He doesn't have stuff. He will always depend on his defense. This is why WAR loves Ks.

[Elktonnick]

Few weeks ago I said that he probably was trying to improve his K/9. I have no evidence if this is true. I haven't seen or heard that from him or from the pitching staff, pure speculation and conjectures.

 

If the last is true and if they wanted to improve his K/9, wouldn't have been better wait and see how this could have worked out before giving him that extension?.

 

While I think that Ben and Farrell have to go, but I do not think they are that stupid so IMO, the blame and the responsible for his horrible performance is exclusively on Porcello. As I said he has always been a mediocre pitcher.

 

Porcello querer decir porqueria en italiano.

[iortiz]

Porcello querer decir porqueria en italiano.

 

LOL! well played.

[Elktonnick]

Gracias

[User Name]

Evan Longoria, B.J Upton, Carl Crawford just to name a few.

 

BJ ended up being a bust, Longoria was a first-round stud, Crawford was a tweener who didn't really excel at anything and was massively overrated. Most of their '08-forward core consisted of early first-round studs, and the Sox have barely picked top-10 in the last decade. It's just not equal footing.

[User Name]

A fan that wants a player on his team to fail so he can "be right" is a s***** fan.

[User Name]

Porcello querer decir porqueria en italiano.

 

Your spanish is f***ing terrible. Stick to your day job.

[iortiz]

I read today that the Sox are now saying that they want Porcello to go back to his old approach. Porcello used to throw his sinker 50-60% of the time. This year he's throwing it about 34% of the time. As a result, he is getting more Ks, but his ground ball rate is at a career low while his fly ball and HR rates are at career highs. As we have all seen, he is getting hit hard.

 

He has supposedly been working for a couple of weeks now on getting the effectiveness of the sinker back to where it was before this year. Apparently, throwing the 4 seamer more has affected the rotation of his sinker to the point where it is not as good as it was last year.

 

Whether this initial change in approach was encouraged by the Sox or not is speculation, but supposedly the Sox thought they could get Porcello to improve his overall game by improving his K rate.

Yup, it is pure speculation.

 

If you sign a 80 M pitcher, you just let him pitch as he used to. Thing is that he started very slow the season in his first 4 starts reason why I think he changed his approach. In fact, in the very next 4, he settled down (likely he made some adjustments), but after that and till now he has been horrible.

Edited June 22, 2015 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

You can't always base a player's performance for the upcoming year on career numbers. Players do improve, especially if they are entering their prime. It was not unreasonable to expect that Porcello could pitch closer to last year's numbers than to his career numbers.

 

As far as the other guys go, none of them were expected to be top of the rotation guys, though Buchholz has his moments. They were expected to be either solid middle or back end guys. Players like Masterson rebound from injury all the time.

 

Again, no one expected a top rotation, but rather a mediocre one. The way they are pitching is far from mediocre. It's been mostly horrendous.

It is very reasonable to expect a pitcher with 1,100 innings to pitch to career norms unless there is an injury. Pitching significantly better than career norms is hopefulness. Career norms for our starting staff would have been a 4+ ERA-- that is not mediocre. It is bad, very bad, and it is what we should have expected. 5+ ERA is even worse. We did not expect that, and I doubt that they will pitch to that level for the entire season.

[iortiz]

It is very reasonable to expect a pitcher with 1,100 innings to pitch to career norms unless there is an injury. Pitching significantly better than career norms is hopefulness. Career norms for our starting staff would have been a 4+ ERA-- that is not mediocre. It is bad, very bad, and it is what we should have expected. 5+ ERA is even worse. We did not expect that, and I doubt that they will pitch to that level for the entire season.

 

Do you think if some team would be willing to eat his contract? If so, I would do it in a heartbeat.

[sk7326]

This is not inexplicable. It was completely foreseeable. A 5+ ERA was not foreseeable, but being bad was foreseeable. Being good was hopefulness without any statistical support. Porcello is a career 4.40 ERA pitcher with 1,100+ innings under his belt. That is no small sample size. That is what he is a 4+ ERA starting pitcher -- a number 3 to 5 at best. He is by no stretch of the imagination or statistical manipulation a top of the rotation guy. Miley is a career 3.80 ERA pitcher in the NL with over 600 IP. Put him in the AL and he is a 4+ ERA making him a #4 or 5. Masterson is a career 4.30 ERA pitcher with almost 1,200 IP. Add to that his recent loss of velocity. Kelly is an unaccomplished 27 year old and Buch has been the epitomy of inconsistency. It was to be expected that this staff would stink even if they performed to career norms. Their career norm is a 4+ ERA and that just doesn't cut it in today's game. The result will be a very bad team. Our hitting is hot now and it has been getting a lot of hits in June. I think we are right up there in hits in June, but we still stink as a team. Ben, it's the pitching stupid!

 

It is baffling - because 22-28 year olds tend to IMPROVE because that's what learning is. To look at the sample size here and just say "yep, he is what he is" makes as much sense as doing that about his high school numbers. The idea was because he was improving over his tour in Detroit, and that he is just 26, and that he was leaving a horrible defense, that he would be more productive.

 

Miley has been a little less baffling although given his 3.8 ERA in a launching pad in the NL, you'd have expected his numbers to go up in the AL but not to the degree. Kelly has been inconsistent and Buchholz has largely been solid.

[Bellhorn04]

I am not in the camp that wants to trade Buchholz.