Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[GomesBeard]

Maybe not, but it's only a 4-year deal so the Sox have to overpay. I'd rather they do that than pay him 15 million per year for 7 years or so.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the $20 million mark is looked upon by many as a demarcation above which elite pitchers get paid. I don't think Porcello is viewed by many as being in the elite group.

 

I don't think he's in the elite group either. But the price of pitchers just keeps going up at an insane rate. The Red Sox did manage to keep the length of the deal to a reasonable 4 years, and probably had to bump the AAV a couple million to do so.

[sk7326]

Porcello is not a 20 M pitcher by any means.

 

Well, not at this second, but given his age and what $20M will buy in the future? It's not that much of a gamble if he stays healthy.

[a700hitter]

I don't think he's in the elite group either. But the price of pitchers just keeps going up at an insane rate. The Red Sox did manage to keep the length of the deal to a reasonable 4 years, and probably had to bump the AAV a couple million to do so.

The question is whether they just paid a Mercedes price for a Hyundai.

[a700hitter]

Porcello is a solid pitcher, but this is not a real value contract. He may perform up to the level of this contract, but I doubt that will outperform the value of his contract. There is a downside here -- that he doesn't ever perform like an elite $20 million pitcher. There is also the possibility that he performs at the elite level an earns his money. I see little probability that he outperforms the contract value. In my book, there is downside risk, with little possibility of upside reward. Also, this contract probably precludes the Red Sox from making a serious bid for the next group of top FA pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

The question is whether they just paid a Mercedes price for a Hyundai.

 

$80 million isn't the Mercedes price any more. Lester got double that much.

[mvp 78]

BTW, the answer to the original question is still no.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, this contract probably precludes the Red Sox from making a serious bid for the next group of top FA pitchers.

 

Not really. Next year Napoli and Victorino are off the books. That's 29 million. If Masterson is gone that's another 9.5 million.

 

Plus we don't really know how the Red Sox feel about exceeding the tax threshold any more. With the piles of money they've been spending maybe they don't really care that much.

[a700hitter]

$80 million isn't the Mercedes price any more. Lester got double that much.

The small mercedes.

[Palodios]

Also, this contract probably precludes the Red Sox from making a serious bid for the next group of top FA pitchers.

 

The Red Sox weren't ever going to make a serious bid on the top tier FA pitchers. Unless one of Cueto/Price/Zimm falls in cost, it won't happen. The FO is going to target young pitchers with high ceilings.It will be a sell-the-farm trade for a Strasburg/Harvey/Sale or an international signing for someone like Otani or Maeda from Japan, or some unknown Cuban star

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox weren't ever going to make a serious bid on the top tier FA pitchers. Unless one of Cueto/Price/Zimm falls in cost, it won't happen. The FO is going to target young pitchers with high ceilings.It will be a sell-the-farm trade for a Strasburg/Harvey/Sale or an international signing for someone like Otani or Maeda from Japan, or some unknown Cuban star

I agree with you, and I think that this Porcello deal is an indicator of that direction. Bells, however, disagrees with us.

[iortiz]

OK, good response.

 

Now, since you obviously believe in WAR, I assume you're good with FanGraphs WAR values for Porcello and the dollar values of about $20 million for both 2013 and 2014.

Once again, did Harang worth last year 20 M? Kind of my point.

[iortiz]

Well, not at this second, but given his age and what $20M will buy in the future? It's not that much of a gamble if he stays healthy.

 

That's the thing. His whole career doesn't give me the certainty to throw that amount of money at a pitcher like Porcello. If we were talking about pitchers like Kershaw, J Fernandez, Teheran, etc, who btw have better stuff, I would take the time to make a case, but Rick f***ing Porcello? Cmon man.

Edited April 9, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

The question is whether they just paid a Mercedes price for a Hyundai.

 

I think he is a Jetta, nothing more haha

[iortiz]

Porcello is a solid pitcher, but this is not a real value contract. He may perform up to the level of this contract, but I doubt that will outperform the value of his contract. There is a downside here -- that he doesn't ever perform like an elite $20 million pitcher. There is also the possibility that he performs at the elite level an earns his money. I see little probability that he outperforms the contract value. In my book, there is downside risk, with little possibility of upside reward. Also, this contract probably precludes the Red Sox from making a serious bid for the next group of top FA pitchers.

I would call this set, match and game.

[iortiz]

The Red Sox weren't ever going to make a serious bid on the top tier FA pitchers. Unless one of Cueto/Price/Zimm falls in cost, it won't happen. The FO is going to target young pitchers with high ceilings.It will be a sell-the-farm trade for a Strasburg/Harvey/Sale or an international signing for someone like Otani or Maeda from Japan, or some unknown Cuban star

Unfortunately this is true Pal.

[iortiz]

First off, it's really a moot point since neither one of has 10,000 posts and can change our sig line.

 

Secondly, your condition that Porcello has to reach 150 IP no matter what is unfair in the case that he gets injured in some freak play that is beyond his control. That, IMO, has nothing to do with durability. That said, I will accept it anyway.

Where did I say that get injured by a freaking play have something to do with durability? I'll wait.

 

Secondly, I'm free to make an offer (whatever it is) and you are free to accept it or refuse it. A couple of posters already accepted my offer. I think that they thought it was pretty fair otherwise why did they accept this?

 

I like to bet money. You like to bet Sigs. No problem. Do you still want to bet your sig under my conditions?

[a700hitter]

That's the thing. His whole career doesn't give me the certainty to throw that amount of money at a pitcher like Porcello. If we were talking about pitchers like Kershaw, J Fernandez, Teheran, etc, who btw have better stuff, I would take the time to make a case, but Rick f***ing Porcello? Cmon man.

No one thinks that this guy is a top of the rotation ace. I don't think anyone is claiming that. Maybe he will be our best pitcher this season, but he has not even been a #2 guy on a staff yet. I wonder how many non-number 1 starting pitchers make $20 + million/year and who are they?

[sk7326]

Porcello is a solid pitcher, but this is not a real value contract. He may perform up to the level of this contract, but I doubt that will outperform the value of his contract. There is a downside here -- that he doesn't ever perform like an elite $20 million pitcher. There is also the possibility that he performs at the elite level an earns his money. I see little probability that he outperforms the contract value. In my book, there is downside risk, with little possibility of upside reward. Also, this contract probably precludes the Red Sox from making a serious bid for the next group of top FA pitchers.

 

The assertion here is that the opportunity cost of $20M a year is in fact an elite pitcher. That is almost certainly not going to be true in 4 years (maybe not even in 1).

 

I have my doubts how often the Sox will dip their tool into the UFA pitching pool, just because of the low likelihood that the contract will deliver value. There are excpetions in my mind (I think Lester will deliver sufficient value for that deal for instance). If a star-level pitcher it's coming, it's via trade or development. Budgetarily it's a relative non-issue. They ignored all of baseball's deterrents to sign Moncada for instance ... if there is a good reason to stretch, they will.

[Palodios]

Let's take a look at some of the tier money out there:

 

Kershaw -- 215 million, through age 33.

Felix -- 175 through age 33.

Cain -- 125 million through age 33

Scherzer -- 210 million, through age 37.

Sabathia -- 122 million through age 37

Lester -- 150 million through age 37

Verlander -- 175 through age 36

 

 

Kershaw and Felix might as well be bargains. But the key difference between the Porcello deal and the rest of them is that those teams pay more money for the early years to get the decline years. If you tried to get any of those aces to sign a 4 year deal during prime years, you're probably looking at 40 million per year.

 

The last year of the Porcello contract could be just as good as the first year. All of the others deals are going to see big declines towards the end.

[iortiz]

No one thinks that this guy is a top of the rotation ace. I don't think anyone is claiming that. Maybe he will be our best pitcher this season, but he has not even been a #2 guy on a staff yet. I wonder how many non-number 1 starting pitchers make $20 + million/year and who are they?

 

Bingo!

 

To me doesn't make sense to throw 20 M /Y for the next 4 Y to a pitcher who has not shown that potential yet even with all the GB, young, FiP, WAR, etc rethoric thing.

 

As you said, wouldn't it be more prudent wait at least 12 starts or something at least?

[iortiz]

Let's take a look at some of the tier money out there:

 

Kershaw -- 215 million, through age 33.

Felix -- 175 through age 33.

Cain -- 125 million through age 33

Scherzer -- 210 million, through age 37.

Sabathia -- 122 million through age 37

Lester -- 150 million through age 37

Verlander -- 175 through age 36

 

 

Kershaw and Felix might as well be bargains. But the key difference between the Porcello deal and the rest of them is that those teams pay more money for the early years to get the decline years. If you tried to get any of those aces to sign a 4 year deal during prime years, you're probably looking at 40 million per year.

 

The last year of the Porcello contract could be just as good as the first year. All of the others deals are going to see big declines towards the end.

Yup, but Porcello is not in that elite group by any means, even if he borns again. In my book he is 2 floors downstairs at least, probably 3.

[Spudboy]

Of course one injury to Porcello's arm and he probably won't provide value through his contract either. It is a risk. And one the Sox can take.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree with you, and I think that this Porcello deal is an indicator of that direction. Bells, however, disagrees with us.

 

Not exactly. What I said, or meant to say, was that the Porcello signing doesn't put them in a financial position of not being able to make a serious bid for a FA pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Once again, did Harang worth last year 20 M? Kind of my point.

 

Yes, Harang was worth $20 million last year, and IF that was his 6th season and IF he was 26 he probably would have gotten a pretty nice deal in the offseason.

[iortiz]

Yes, Harang was worth $20 million last year, and IF that was his 6th season and IF he was 26 he probably would have gotten a pretty nice deal in the offseason.

 

That was what I was disputing, no more, no less. So am I reasonable, now?

[Palodios]

Yup, but Porcello is not in that elite group by any means, even if he borns again. In my book he is 2 floors downstairs at least, probably 3.

 

Right, but the point is that his contract isn't in a elite money group either. All the teams that signed the other guys are paying for decline years, whereas the Red Sox are paying solely for prime years.

[iortiz]

No one thinks that this guy is a top of the rotation ace. I don't think anyone is claiming that. Maybe he will be our best pitcher this season, but he has not even been a #2 guy on a staff yet. I wonder how many non-number 1 starting pitchers make $20 + million/year and who are they?

 

No one thinks he was/is/will be a No. 1 type, but some think that he worth whata No.1 makes in a Y basis. Interesting.

Edited April 9, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Right, but the point is that his contract isn't in a elite money group either. All the teams that signed the other guys are paying for decline years, whereas the Red Sox are paying solely for prime years.

 

Yup, but I meant in a AVV basis. 20 M pay check/ Y belongs in the Group you mentioned.

 

Also, even in his prime years as you are suggesting, I do not see Porcello earning that money, but that's me of course.

[Bellhorn04]

That's the thing. His whole career doesn't give me the certainty to throw that amount of money at a pitcher like Porcello. If we were talking about pitchers like Kershaw, J Fernandez, Teheran, etc, who btw have better stuff, I would take the time to make a case, but Rick f***ing Porcello? Cmon man.

 

Kershaw is guaranteed 215 million. Porcello is guaranteed 83 million, about 40% of that. The difference is massive. Kershaw has nothing to do with this.