Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[Kimmi]

The old notion that you learn more from losing than you do from winning is relative. The only thing we ever learned was how much we hated to lose. It always was a motivator that made us better. I will not discount the impact or role that luck plays in close games but it is amazing - the harder you work and the better your preparation the better your luck. Maybe the terminology should be different but good teams win more close games than bad teams obviously. Confidence plays a huge role and confidence does seem to create more luck.

 

 

I'm know that losing is a great motivator. I played sports. No one likes to lose.

 

It's not luck in the sense of lucky rabbit's foot luck, it's luck in the sense of randomness. Good teams do tend to win slightly more close games, but usually have a lower winning % in close games than their overall winning %. In other words, the closer the score of the game, the more the winning % tends toward .500.

[Kimmi]

Yup, not enough horrible FA acquisitions yet to compare him to Theo (all those horrible SP stop gaps, the SS constant turnover, Crawford, etc.).

 

 

LOL

 

Theo made his share of mistakes, but his philosophy on how to build a winning franchise was spot on.

 

IMO, Crawford was Lucchino's doing. I don't think there is any way that Theo would have signed Crawford if he hadn't been more or less forced to do so by Lucchino. It's no secret that the two didn't see eye to eye when it came to baseball ops. Theo and Bill James are my idols.

[cp176]

I'm know that losing is a great motivator. I played sports. No one likes to lose.

 

It's not luck in the sense of lucky rabbit's foot luck, it's luck in the sense of randomness. Good teams do tend to win slightly more close games, but usually have a lower winning % in close games than their overall winning %. In other words, the closer the score of the game, the more the winning % tends toward .500.

 

Ok - I think that makes sense to me. I interpret what you are saying to mean that against teams you are clearly better than, you will win more games - make sense. You will tend to have closer games with teams of more equal ability. If you win more than half of the games played against equally talented opponents you've done well.

[Kingface]

I actually like this rotation. I HATE the over-used term 'ace'. Sure a good TOR starter is important......but teams win without an 'Ace' all of the time......heck, look at the two teams that made the ALCS last year! Not too long ago people wanted to get rid of Lester (2012) and trade him for Meyers....saying he wasn't and Ace. No....he wasn't, but I don't want ANYBODY else pitching for my team when it counts then him. What we have are a bunch of VERY solid pitchers that pitch into the strength of this team which is their defense (other that SS....hopefully Xander comes up big this year). They are al ground ball pitchers and VERY well suited to Fenway. I really think people will be VERY surprised at how good Wade and Porcello are....

[Bellhorn04]

I' ll give them credit when things work out as they did in 2013, but they have to take the blame when they go into the crapper. It was no fluke that they finished last in 2014. They lost an all star CF who was an offensive catalyst and replaced him with a guy who would have needed a tremendous hotstreak to cross the Mendoza line. They handed over three starting positions to unproven kids and they had no backup plan except getting Drew after the team was firmly in suckland. And we know how Drew worked out. They went into the season operating without a net. There was no depth. Neither 2013 nor 2014 were flukes and the FO gets the credit and the blame. However, to win it all you need a few more things to go right and have luck shine on you than you need bad breaks to finish last. If Tori Hunter was 2 inches taller or had 2 inch orthodics we never make it to the WS.

 

Nah, we still woulda won that series, but in 7 games. Plenty of teams have come from 2-0 down.

 

Seriously, you could also say we were very lucky in 2004 and 2007 to come from 3-0 and 3-1 ALCS deficits. So you could say we're incredibly lucky to have 3 titles. If that's how you to choose to look at it. Or you could say we should have won in 1975, 1978, 1986, 2003 and 2008.

[Kimmi]

Ok - I think that makes sense to me. I interpret what you are saying to mean that against teams you are clearly better than, you will win more games - make sense. You will tend to have closer games with teams of more equal ability. If you win more than half of the games played against equally talented opponents you've done well.

 

 

Well, to a certain extent. The good teams will tend to win more of their games by larger margins. The larger the difference in the score, the more skill and talent become a factor. In one run games, randomness is king. It's not necessarily that the ability of the two teams is equal, but rather that their ability is not the deciding factor in the outcome of the game. Bad teams have almost as good a chance of winning a one run game as a good team.

 

In close games, things like missed strike/ball calls, bad bounces, a ball that was fair or foul by 1/2 an inch, a checked swing dribbler that results in a hit, etc. end up being the difference between who won or lost the game. These are things that have little to do with a team's skill.

[Bellhorn04]

Sometimes even one-sided games turn on one piece of luck. The one play might be a grand slam-4 runs at once. Or a bunch of runs might come in after the one play. It's just the way baseball is. It's a different game.

[a700hitter]

Nah, we still woulda won that series, but in 7 games. Plenty of teams have come from 2-0 down.

 

Seriously, you could also say we were very lucky in 2004 and 2007 to come from 3-0 and 3-1 ALCS deficits. So you could say we're incredibly lucky to have 3 titles. If that's how you to choose to look at it. Or you could say we should have won in 1975, 1978, 1986, 2003 and 2008.

 

Yes, those were some great teams in 1975, 1978, 1986, 2003 and 2008. In each of those years, the team caught some bad breaks that turned out to be good breaks for their opponents. In 1975, Jim Rice missed the entire post season with a broken wrist and then there was the the End Armbrister non- interference call. In 1978, there was the lucky catch by Lou Piniella on Remy's base hit to RF. He didn't see the ball at all and just threw out his glove. In 1986, there was the Buckner play and Clemen's blister that took him out of the game. In 2003, there was Grady Little and in 2008, there was Beckett's torn Lat. I would add 1967 to the list as the Red Sox had to face the Cardinals without Tony Conigliaro who was one of the brightest young stars in the game.

 

This reinforces my point that a lot of things need to go right to go all the way. Those were great teams, but the planets didn't align for them in those years. The same cannot be said of finishing last. You don't need a lot of bad breaks at critical times. You just need to suck and be a poorly constructed team.

[iortiz]

Yup, not enough horrible FA acquisitions yet to compare him to Theo (all those horrible SP stop gaps, the SS constant turnover, Crawford, etc.).

 

I think they won't let Cherrys spend like a drunken sailor like Theo did with his horrible FA signings mostly at the end of his tenure... and while this is wise and prudent, I think it is time to land a couple of aces via FA/reasonable trade.

Edited January 25, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

The problem I have with people saying that the stars aligned perfectly, etc. is that it makes it sound like winning the WS was just dumb luck. This team won the WS because they were a good team with good depth, not because they were lucky. Again, the team had a lot of things go right, but IMO, not any more so than most teams that win the WS. Give Ben and the FO some credit.

 

It was a managerial stroke of genius that Ben assembled a BP that had enough depth to withstand the injuries/ineffectiveness of Bailey and Hanrahan.

 

I think where the problem is. You are seeing the thing in a retrospective way instead of seeing it as how we are addressing the topic; ... entering into a new season.

 

Just for the record, no one is taking away any credit to anybody. No one. That team worked as a perfect oiled machine, BUT, again... A lot of things/situations overachieved the initial expectations.

[a700hitter]

I think where the problem is. You are seeing the thing in a retrospective way instead of seeing it as how we are addressing the topic; ... entering into a new season.

 

Just for the record, no one is taking away any credit to anybody. No one. That team worked as a perfect oiled machine, BUT, again... A lot of things/situations overachieved the initial expectations.

Almost every expert projected them as a 4th place team or worse going into that season. Looking at the team on paper at the beginning of the year couldn't project the relatively good health of its pitching staff and the situational resilience of that team. As a group, they were very mentally tough. When things gor rough and looked like they might turn bad, they turned things around. This was very different from the 2011 and 2012 teams which caved when things started to turn bad and things spiraled downward.

[User Name]

I think where the problem is. You are seeing the thing in a retrospective way instead of seeing it as how we are addressing the topic; ... entering into a new season.

 

Just for the record, no one is taking away any credit to anybody. No one. That team worked as a perfect oiled machine, BUT, again... A lot of things/situations overachieved the initial expectations.

 

Things will always "overachieve your initial expectations" because you almost always have terribly negative expectations.

[User Name]

I think they won't let Cherrys spend like a drunken sailor like Theo did with his horrible FA signings mostly at the end of his tenure... and while this is wise and prudent, I think it is time to land a couple of aces via FA/reasonable trade.

 

Except that Crawford/Lackey were Lucchino signings. This is common knowledge.

[iortiz]

I don't know why those things would be so unexpected. Nava, ok. Maybe his performance was unexpected. For the most part, the rest of the guys did what the FO knew they were capable of doing.

 

Except for Middlebrooks.

 

Kim, did you really really really expect:

 

1. Lackey coming from hell and performing as he did?

2. Ellsbury staying healthy for once in a full season and be considered at some point a MVP caliber?

3. Finding in Koji and Tazawa an automatic win when we came into the last 2 innings?

4. Buch posting a microscopic ERA and giving u BTW 12 W even with his DL?

5. Papi hitting almost a 1000 OPS in regular season and most important a 1.9+ in POS and mostly in WS? Hell, he is an extraordinary player BUT come on, he was performing as he was out of this planet at 37 for Gods sake...

6. Lester bouncing back and performing like a legit ace when it is important: at POs

 

I mean... I could make a case for almost every single player like Nava, Salty, Shane, etc. since the expections vs their 2013 performance weren't expected at all, when we ENTERED INTO 2013 SEASON.

 

On the other hand if you saw all of this coming entering into 2013 season, fine! But you would be 1 in a million Kim.

[iortiz]

Things will always "overachieve your initial expectations" because you almost always have terribly negative expectations.

 

It is not true. I had good expectations entering into 2011 and 2014.

Edited January 25, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

Except that Crawford/Lackey were Lucchino signings. This is common knowledge.

 

Also, the Lackey signing doesn't look quite so bad anymore.

[iortiz]

Except that Crawford/Lackey were Lucchino signings. This is common knowledge.

I see. L always made the bad decisions and Theo the good ones. Do not take wrong I do not like L But come on man, Theo left a disaster when he left... And while he got a "better" job in Chicago, JH did not make any effort to retain him.

 

Also, Common knowledge? Do you have this on the record? Any Evidence? Were u in the decision room when the decisions were taken? Or is it a vox populi/cliche/conjectures/assumptions based? Because I do not have record of this.

Edited January 25, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Almost every expert projected them as a 4th place team or worse going into that season. Looking at the team on paper at the beginning of the year couldn't project the relatively good health of its pitching staff and the situational resilience of that team. As a group, they were very mentally tough. When things gor rough and looked like they might turn bad, they turned things around. This was very different from the 2011 and 2012 teams which caved when things started to turn bad and things spiraled downward.

Haven't seen the lines these days but few weeks ago the casinos were giving a 9/1 to win the WS to the Red Sox, the best odd to any team at the time.

 

Sorry but I do not even see PO team right now, since the pitching. Much more less a legit WS contender.

 

I will always cheer up and root for the Red Sox no matter what, and hopefully If we go with this pitching staff, we make a big splash as the casinos are suggesting; but I'm trying to see the things without my Red Sox glasses.

[a700hitter]

Haven't seen the lines these days but few weeks ago the casinos were giving a 9/1 to win the WS to the Red Sox, the best odd to any team at the time.

 

Sorry but I do not even see PO team right now, since the pitching. Much more less a legit WS contender.

 

I will always cheer up and root for the Red Sox no matter what, and hopefully If we go with this pitching staff, we make a big splash as the casinos are suggesting; but I'm trying to see the things without my Red Sox glasses.

If you let emotions enter into your gambling, you will go broke quickly.

[iortiz]

If you let emotions enter into your gambling, you will go broke quickly.

 

If Nats keep their current rotation, they will be my pick.

[a700hitter]

If Nats keep their current rotation, they will be my pick.

 

They have a very talented roster.

[seabeachfred]

After starting his career primarily as a starter in Japan, he had 32 saves with the Yomiuri Giants in 2007. He had 13 saves with Baltimore in 2010. In Japan and in the USA, the guy has kept his WHIP around or under 1.00 through his career.

 

Thanks Spitball. It's always nice to learn something new about a player on the Red Sox. I didn't know Koji had 13 saves with the Orioles in 2010. I knew he closed a few game but not nearly that many. I have wondered by it took so long for some team to find that this guy wasn't just knock down 8th inning pitcher but a shutdown ace of a closer to boot.

[seabeachfred]

I' ll give them credit when things work out as they did in 2013, but they have to take the blame when they go into the crapper. It was no fluke that they finished last in 2014. They lost an all star CF who was an offensive catalyst and replaced him with a guy who would have needed a tremendous hotstreak to cross the Mendoza line. They handed over three starting positions to unproven kids and they had no backup plan except getting Drew after the team was firmly in suckland. And we know how Drew worked out. They went into the season operating without a net. There was no depth. Neither 2013 nor 2014 were flukes and the FO gets the credit and the blame. However, to win it all you need a few more things to go right and have luck shine on you than you need bad breaks to finish last. If Tori Hunter was 2 inches taller or had 2 inch orthodics we never make it to the WS.

 

Another ball hit off the Green Monster by you Ted. For a moment I forgot that we were close to Bedtime for Bonzo land in that second game of the ALCS two years ago when Tori barely missed Papi's granny that turned a comfortable 5-1 Tiger lead into a 5-5 tie and gave the momentum for pretty much the rest of the series, even though is some ways Detroit might have been the better all around team. There are those baseball people who keep insisting baseball is a game of inches. That was proof of that adage.

[seabeachfred]

Kimmi - Hope you don't think that I was being critical of your support of the front office.I would not criticize you. Might not always agree but would not criticize. You are a good poster who clearly knows the game. I support them as well. What I did learn as a coach is that if you do it long enough you probably will experience both the top and bottom rungs of the ladder. Sometimes in spite of what you do or don't do. Luck has to play a roll. When we were real good, people thought I was a genius and when we were bad my family had to hear some things I didn't want them to hear. I was the same guy. Most of the time you do help to make your own luck for sure. But sometimes you just sit back and say how could that possibly have happened.

 

You get better every time out CP. You leave this board and I will hunt you down.

[seabeachfred]

I consider some of his moves to be genius, though he has not earned his "Theo" status yes. ;-)

 

I'll give you a pass on this one Kimmi. Theo status? Carl Crawford? Manny Delcarmen for close to six years of miserable choke-up pitching? Lars Anderson? I could go on and on Kimmi but to me the last two or three years of Theo's Boston tenure was pure horse manure.

[seabeachfred]

I actually like this rotation. I HATE the over-used term 'ace'. Sure a good TOR starter is important......but teams win without an 'Ace' all of the time......heck, look at the two teams that made the ALCS last year! Not too long ago people wanted to get rid of Lester (2012) and trade him for Meyers....saying he wasn't and Ace. No....he wasn't, but I don't want ANYBODY else pitching for my team when it counts then him. What we have are a bunch of VERY solid pitchers that pitch into the strength of this team which is their defense (other that SS....hopefully Xander comes up big this year). They are al ground ball pitchers and VERY well suited to Fenway. I really think people will be VERY surprised at how good Wade and Porcello are....

 

I'm holding you to that Kingface. Welcome to the board.

[seabeachfred]

Nah, we still woulda won that series, but in 7 games. Plenty of teams have come from 2-0 down.

 

Seriously, you could also say we were very lucky in 2004 and 2007 to come from 3-0 and 3-1 ALCS deficits. So you could say we're incredibly lucky to have 3 titles. If that's how you to choose to look at it. Or you could say we should have won in 1975, 1978, 1986, 2003 and 2008.

 

How about if we split the difference Bellhorn. Let's say that 2004, 2007 and 2013 made up for '75, '78, '86 and '03. Of course I wasn't around for the latter, just the former, or to quote one of Sinatra's song...I MADE IT JUST IN TIME. Of course, that three making up for four. That means we need another big win to make up for four crushing losses. Well OK, I was there for 2003 and I hate to even think of that or Grady Little, and I don't count 2008 because as long as I live I will give Francona full blame for that season's failure. He never managed worse than that year for the Sox.

[cp176]

You get better every time out CP. You leave this board and I will hunt you down.

 

thanks Fred- I think thanks (I don't want you hunting me down). I love statistics but I will never accept that they tell the whole story. You have been in the arena and fought the fight yourself - you know what I mean. I say use all the available tools

I am truly not sure that I would love this great game if every decision I have made was dictated by what the statistics said to do. A player like Pedroia has fought what the stats have said about him for his entire career.

[Kimmi]

I think where the problem is. You are seeing the thing in a retrospective way instead of seeing it as how we are addressing the topic; ... entering into a new season.

 

Just for the record, no one is taking away any credit to anybody. No one. That team worked as a perfect oiled machine, BUT, again... A lot of things/situations overachieved the initial expectations.

 

 

I felt pretty good about the team entering the season.

 

I did not expect them to win 97 games, but I expected wins in the low 90s and a good shot at a playoff berth. Once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. So, it's not like it was nearly impossible for them to win the WS, despite finishing in last place the prior year.

[Kimmi]

Kim, did you really really really expect:

 

1. Lackey coming from hell and performing as he did?

2. Ellsbury staying healthy for once in a full season and be considered at some point a MVP caliber?

3. Finding in Koji and Tazawa an automatic win when we came into the last 2 innings?

4. Buch posting a microscopic ERA and giving u BTW 12 W even with his DL?

5. Papi hitting almost a 1000 OPS in regular season and most important a 1.9+ in POS and mostly in WS? Hell, he is an extraordinary player BUT come on, he was performing as he was out of this planet at 37 for Gods sake...

6. Lester bouncing back and performing like a legit ace when it is important: at POs

 

I mean... I could make a case for almost every single player like Nava, Salty, Shane, etc. since the expections vs their 2013 performance weren't expected at all, when we ENTERED INTO 2013 SEASON.

 

On the other hand if you saw all of this coming entering into 2013 season, fine! But you would be 1 in a million Kim.

 

 

I don't know that "expect" is the right word, but I don't see any of those things as being outrageous either. I was hopeful that players could perform like they did, and since some of them were coming off of injuries, I think it was a reasonable hope.

 

No, I didn't expect Koji/Tazawa to be the late inning guys. I expected Hanrahan/Bailey to do that. Either way, I thought we had a strong BP going into the season.