Yankee rotation

[jacksonianmarch]

After years of tumult, the Yankee rotation likely won't disappoint in terms of boom or bust capability in 2015. 5 years ago, we were coming off a world series title and a rotation anchored by three durable veterans in Sabathia, Pettitte, and Burnett. Well, Burnett moved on after an implosion, Pettitte retired and CC has disintegrated. Resurrecting the dead rotation last yr was a difficult task. We started off April with ace performance out of the guys who were supposed to be the #4 and #5 starters in the rotation. Tanaka was the mid season Cy Young leader while Pineda cheated then got hurt before returning to ace level status later in the year. Both are set to return, but only one enters the year totally healthy (Pineda). We got excellent performance out of a rookie in Greene, then promptly dealt him away for a kid SS. We go out and deal quite possibly the most versatile big league performer in baseball for another hard throwing kid. And then there's the spectre of an ace level addition in Scherzer or Shields or the reunion with an old stalwart in Kuroda. Currently, those balls are in the air. Regardless, Cashman and Levine have said they are out on the big fish and Kuroda hasn't decided if he wants to go fishing or start pitching. So let's look at what we have, shall we

 

1. Masahiro Tanaka- 26 yr old ace level pitcher who put up 3.3WAR in 20 starts during one of the most pitcher friendly big league seasons of all time. He has stuff that drips off the screen, a splitter that makes Goose Gossage blush and poise beyond belief. He also has a small tear in his UCL making his performance in the upcoming season decidedly problematic. There is a chance that this tear was so small that it was more a chronic process that shouldn't cause for such alarm. There is also the possibility that it's a bigger tear than they realize and he is going to see the business end of a scalpel in the near future. Nobody is going to question that if we get 30 starts out of him, we're probably looking at ace level performance. Durability is a concern, but if healthy, he's an unquestioned ace.

 

2. Michael Pineda- The soon to be 26 yr old did something almost as impressive. He put up 2.7WAR in 13 starts. He was returning after shoulder surgery and they babied the f*** out of him coming back from a lat strain. He returned Aug 13th and finished out the season on a tear. He has top of the rotation stuff and command that puts his command well above his years. As with Tanaka, should Pineda throw 30 times this yr, there aren't too many people who will deny he'd perform at an ace level. The problem has been durability.

 

3. Nathan Eovaldi- He's different than the above guys. Last yr, he toed the rubber 33 times and was 1/3 of an inning short of 200IP for the season. He also has stuff that jumps off the page, but he's a little too wild in the zone, which is why he allowed the most hits in baseball last yr. But there are a few things that really stand out. He has a devastating FB-slider combination, which limits the HR's he allows, something very important in Yankee Stadium. He also was working on a splitter, per Salty, and it was looking like a useful pitch in the future. Throw in Larry Rothschild, who has a thing for reclamation projects, and I would be willing to bet a small sum that this kid turns around in Yankee Stadium. He has the stuff, he has the durability, and he has the capability to avoid the walk. He just needs to miss some bats.

 

4. CC Sabathia- I have no f***ing clue what kind of production we can get out of him. He had a bad knee, which likely led to a lot of pitches being left up. The status of that knee is still in question. If healthy, he probably could be a nice #4 starter for us, giving us innings while also giving up a good amount of runs. We might be better off if his knees end up being career ending so we can collect the insurance money and pick up someone new. Without his velo, he isn't the same pitcher. It took Mike Mussina, one of the smartest baseball players ever to live, a good 3-4 years to transition to a finesse pitcher and he did that with solid health. CC doesn't have the health nor does he have the time to turn back into a productive pitcher. This spot here is as questionable as they come.

 

5. Chris Capuano- seriously, f***ing seriously, why is this guy on this team? He's a good 6th starter, a guy who can fill David Phelps job, a guy who can mop up and finish off a s***** start. He should not be in the Yankees starting rotation...

 

The depth---

 

Ivan Nova should be back after the ASB. People seem to forget that Nova put up two 3.0+WAR seasons for us. They also seem to forget that he did that with a "flexor tendon strain" limiting his IP. That's another fancy term used when a pitcher really needs TJS. He has had it, and if he is with the majority, he should be a pretty solid player for us. Unfortunately, it likely wont be until 2016. Regardless, he fits with the depth train of thought.

 

Adam Warren- Adam was a lynchpin in the pen showing mid 90s velo with a devastating curve. He also was a bulldog starter in the minors before converting to the pen last season. He is an option, although he was so important in the pen last yr that he likely would be left there unless we were in dire need.

 

Manny Banuelos- the once prized prospect was f***ed around with and lost 2 seasons to TJS. He came back last yr, had some injury trouble and was babied back into the fold. He regained his velo as the season ended and is a prime candidate to regain his status as a top pitching prospect. Unless he takes spring training by the balls, he is likely ticketed back to AAA, but I would bet he isn't gonna be there long. He is the most likely of the guys mentioned so far to toe the slab as a starter this yr, and I think he has the most upside as well.

 

Luis Severino- he is considered to be the top prospect in the Yankee system right now. He's drawing comparisons to Ventura from the Royals. Big arm, good command, great secondary stuff, just needs to work on the durability. He threw 113IP last yr and jumped from low A all the way to AA last yr, dominating each stop. He'll likely start in AA again, but should he dominate in the same manner and should our needs arise, he is as likely as any to end up in our rotation.

 

In short, we have major potential and a majorly low floor on this rotation. We need a guy like Kuroda, although by the end of the season, we could be seeing a totally different top 5

[iortiz]

I'd rather Nova over Capuano anyday. Somehow I have Capuano and Porcello in the same basket.

[Palodios]

You will see one stellar year from Pineda/Tanaka, and one out for the season. Sabathia's career looks like it is on its way out, and Eovaldi won't turn into the pitcher you want him to be immediately.

 

Kuroda seems like the big difference maker for this team. He takes pressure off the rookies, Nova, and Capuano without breaking the bank. I imagine he is a must-sign right now.

[mvp 78]

I'd rather Nova over Capuano anyday. Somehow I have Capuano and Porcello in the same basket.

 

I wouldn't know why. Porcello is a much better starter than Capuano. It's not even close.

[User Name]

I wouldn't know why. Porcello is a much better starter than Capuano. It's not even close.

 

I was going to try and post something funny here about how awful of a comparison that is, but gave up. That is beyond ridiculous.

[BSN07]

Porcello in the same basket as Capuano? lmfao

 

Seriously dude, how do you expect anyone to take you seriously when you say s*** like this? I mean you have internet, so you can obviously look this stuff up. There is almost nothing comparable between the 2.

[Spudboy]

Porcello in the same basket as Capuano? lmfao

 

Seriously dude, how do you expect anyone to take you seriously when you say s*** like this? I mean you have internet, so you can obviously look this stuff up. There is almost nothing comparable between the 2.

 

I will say this about Capuano. He wore the Red leggings when playing for the Sox.

 

I think that is cool.

 

 

Porcello has much better stuff. The two pitchers are not close in ability and value.

[BSN07]

I will say this about Capuano. He wore the Red leggings when playing for the Sox.

 

I think that is cool.

 

 

Porcello has much better stuff. The two pitchers are not close in ability and value.

 

They even wear their socks different

[a700hitter]

Porcello in the same basket as Capuano? lmfao

 

Seriously dude, how do you expect anyone to take you seriously when you say s*** like this? I mean you have internet, so you can obviously look this stuff up. There is almost nothing comparable between the 2.

They are both Italian.

[iortiz]

Haha to me both are terrible pitchers, but that's me.

[iortiz]

When I made the comment I didn't check out the stats, only based on what I remember but when you look at them and aside last season their numbers are kind of similar, in fact Capuano has a better career ERA AND after 10 years of service.

[iortiz]

To me they are in the same basket, and if you rush me Capuano has been better thus far.

 

Capuano career line K/9 7.5 B/9 2.8 ERA 4.2 ERA+96 FIP 4.22

Porcello career line K/9 5.5 B/9 2.2 ERA 4.3 ERA+98 FIP 4.03

[iortiz]

2014 Capuanos FIP 3.67 SO/W 3.15

2014 Porcello FIP 3.91 SO/W 2.89

 

....Still in the same basket.

[iortiz]

They are both Italian.

 

...that too haha

 

Both are garbage to me.

[BSN07]

They are both Italian.

 

So you are saying iortiz sorts people by race? haha

[iortiz]

So you are saying iortiz sorts people by race? haha

 

Check out the numbers, I already presented to u.

[Bellhorn04]

2014 Capuanos FIP 3.67 SO/W 3.15

2014 Porcello FIP 3.91 SO/W 2.89

 

....Still in the same basket.

 

Those numbers are reversed.

 

If you're going to use advanced metrics, Porcello's WAR last year was 3.1 (FG) or 4.0 (B-R). Capuano's was 1.0 (FG) or 0.0 (B-R).

[iortiz]

Those numbers are reversed.

 

If you're going to use advanced metrics, Porcello's WAR last year was 3.1 (FG) or 4.0 (B-R). Capuano's was 1.0 (FG) or 0.0 (B-R).

yeah my bad.. but they are still similar... and that was kind of the point.

 

When I said they are in the same basket, was because first off of what I remembered and secondly when you look at some stats they are similar. On the other hand if u want to look at war or Gb or whatever, of course you will find differences.

Edited December 23, 2014 by iortiz

[Palodios]

Porcello is 25 years old, and has thrown 1073 IP, and has 73 wins to a 4.30 ERA.

Capuano at age 25 had only thrown 121 IP and had 8 wins to a 4.90 ERA.

 

 

The age is such a massive part of this. 25 year old baseball players are usually still in AAA. Porcello's value is in upward projection. Pitchers in their mid to late 20s start hitting their prime, whereas pitchers in their mid to late 30s start looking toward retirement.

[iortiz]

Let me put it this way... I have zero confidence in Porcello next year just as I didn't have with Capuano in 2014. I see that some of you have high hopes on him and the other arms of the combo, maybe based on what he posted last year or his GB% or I do not know. Sorry but I do not. I think that he will be a 4.5 ERA pitcher and will be destroyed. Hopefully I eat my words.

[Bellhorn04]

Let me put it this way... I have zero confidence in Porcello next year just as I didn't have with Capuano in 2014. I see that some of you have high hopes on him and the other arms of the combo, maybe based on what he posted last year or his GB% or I do not know. Sorry but I do not. I think that he will be a 4.5 ERA pitcher and will be destroyed. Hopefully I eat my words.

 

It's just that there's no logical reason to predict that a guy who had a 3.43 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP last year is going to suck this year.

[iortiz]

It's just that there's no logical reason to predict that a guy who had a 3.43 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP last year is going to suck this year.

 

No?

 

I'm not worried about the 2014 guy (3.4 ERA), I'm worried about the 2009-2013 guy (4.5 ERA) who actually represents more what he really is.

Edited December 23, 2014 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

No?

 

I'm not worry about the 2014 guy (3.4 ERA), I'm worry about the 2009-2013 guy (4.5 ERA) who actually represents more what he really is.

 

But again, you have to look at his age and how young he was when he started. He's only around the same age as guys like Webster and Rubby.

[iortiz]

But again, you have to look at his age and how young he was when he started. He's only around the same age as guys like Webster and Rubby.

 

You have a good point Bell and hopefully he doesn't turn into a 4.5 ERA pitcher as he's been in the past. While his GB% is high and doesn't walk too many people, his SO/9 and HR/FB are mediocre. It could translate into a lot of double plays and/or bombed.

Edited December 23, 2014 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

To me, a pitcher's 20-23 seasons aren't indicative of how he'll pitch at age 26. To hold a baseball player's performance prior to being able to drink seems like picking nits to me.

[Northern Star]

Porcello in the same basket as Capuano? lmfao

 

Seriously dude, how do you expect anyone to take you seriously when you say s*** like this? I mean you have internet, so you can obviously look this stuff up. There is almost nothing comparable between the 2.

 

They both have c and p and o in their names....

[jacksonianmarch]

Kuroda is returning to Japan. Bummer

[Palodios]

Sounds like the Yanks are going after Scherzer. Bummer.

[Northern Star]

Kuroda is returning to Japan. Bummer

 

LOL. You're screwed unless you get Scherzer.

[jacksonianmarch]

NS, looks like we can join the club, right?