What can Joe Kelly become?

[example1]

Two discussions here--Joe Kelly and do Sox need a #1.

 

Joe Kelly--He could reasonably be a good contributor on a good team.

 

Do Sox need a #1? Yes. They need someone who pitches at that level all season, preferably for a couple of seasons. The more I look at Porcello the more I like his trajectory. He's only 25 years old and has seen his ERA decrease every year of his career. He's just now entering his prime. I think he could turn into a solid #2 over the next few years. He probably won't be the #1 they need.

 

I'm not sure if they need to trade for a #1 though--not if it costs them one of their best prospects. To be honest, I could wait 6 months for them to find the right guy if it means they get an all-star career or two from guys like Owens, Swihart, Betts or Bogaerts. I don't think there's an ace available who I would want them to trade Swihart, Betts or Bogaerts for knowing that they're likely to get a front of the rotation starter in the next year one way or another.

[iortiz]

It's turning in to a crude joke. I am beginning to think that people truly think that this current team will be competitive in the long haul. Why? Starting pitching is not there currently. End of story. Do people think that this team's hitting is going to carry them. I don't think so. Negative comment on my part but based on history it is called reality.

I will spare you any future abuse. I have suffered through some rather lean years but for most of them I had a little hope. In the gm of basketball, if you have the best player you always have a chance to win. At this time, for the right deal, I would trade any member of this current team. I do not believe that we have the beat player at any position. Do people think that this team looks good because everybody else just sucks?

 

Becareful, some will call u negative haha

 

You are totally right. This rotation as it is sucks, plain and simple... And the incredible thing is that we are likely going to go like this based on what cherries has been saying lately.

[iortiz]

The thought that the current configuration of our starting staff can yield consistent success is wishful thinking at best. Porcello can be a solid #3 with a ceiling of a #2 if our IF fielding is top shelf. With the rest, we have a pair of 4's and 5's. If Buch comes out of the gate 11-0 like in 2013,that would be a game-changer, but why would they let a whole season ride on such a crapshoot? Maybe Masterson is healed and regains his velocity. If he does, he is a solid #3, but again, what we get from him will be unpredictable. A top guy is needed. We have the money. He needs to get a number one. It is as simple as that. This offense is much improved, but it will not be a wrecking crew like the 2003-2007 teams. We will need to consistently bludgeon peple with this pitching. That is always hard to do, and we don't have that kind of deep lineup.

My friend, you see the game as it has to be seen: plain and simple.

 

Your assessment is totally accurate.

[iortiz]

Wonder what is going to happen when we have to face teams with true #1s and #2s.

[mvp 78]

Wonder what is going to happen when we have to face teams with true #1s and #2s.

 

What's your definition of a "true #2?" My guess is that Masterson, Miley, Porcello and Buchholz have all had seasons where they pitched like a #2.

 

How many "true #1's" are in the league? 15?

[jacksonianmarch]

Joe Kelly is a swing man, imo. I think he profiles beat as a reliever. As for the sox needing a #1, I agree completely. You're also gonna need a #2. As much as the AL East isn't what it used to be, you still had the O's, Yanks, and Blue Jays over .500 and I'm pretty sure all 3 of them will be over .500 again. You're gonna need consistent pitching to do that. You've got innings out of Miley, but who knows how he'll perform. You've got questions abounding with Masterson and Buccholz, seeing if they can rebound from being the worst pitchers in the AL last yr. Porcello is your only proven pitcher, and he's been buried on a rotation where Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez and Price overshadowed him. He's gonna be the guy in this rotation and he's moving from the friendly confines of Comerica to Fenway. He's less of a concern, but my guess is he's gonna have an adjustment period.

[User Name]

Unsurprisingly, iortiz has reading comprehension problems as well. No one here is content with the current state of the rotation.

[User Name]

My take on this thread is that many of the current posters are somewhat satisfied with the current pitching staff composition. The discussion did drift a bit as to what type of lineup it would take to support their potential staff . That lineup does not exist at this time. With respect to Joe Kelly, I am fine with his potential but projecting him to be more than a solid 3 much like the rest of this staff isn't being fair to him.

 

Your take is wrong.

[Dojji]

This rotation is a success if it eats lots of innings and "keeps the team in the game," keeping the overwhelming majority of games within reach of the offense. Top quality is not in the cards, durable innings will be the key factor to whether this rotation will succeed or fail. If they can get into the 7th giving up only 3 or 4 runs most of the time that's probably the best we can expect.

 

The issue is that if we do make the playoffs, we have no one in our rotation that's the guy who will carry us all the way. No team in that situation has won it all in a long time. I honestly don't see even a guy who's going to be that dark horse the way Yordano Ventura was for KC in their only-just-barely-failed championship bid.

 

That's not a death knell, since there's time, and our prospects have some talent, and who knows, but it makes it hard to get particularly excited from here.

[Bellhorn04]

What's your definition of a "true #2?" My guess is that Masterson, Miley, Porcello and Buchholz have all had seasons where they pitched like a #2.

 

How many "true #1's" are in the league? 15?

 

FWIW here are their career ERA+ and 2014 ERA+:

 

Kelly 111 91

Buchholz 109 72

Miley 103 86

Porcello 98 116

Masterson 94 63

 

A #3 should have an ERA+ of around 100, all else being equal, which it isn't of course.

 

Based on the above numbers it's a motley crew indeed, especially considering how wildly erratic Buch and Masterson have been.

[jacksonianmarch]

This rotation is a success if it eats lots of innings and "keeps the team in the game," keeping the overwhelming majority of games within reach of the offense. Top quality is not in the cards, durable innings will be the key factor to whether this rotation will succeed or fail. If they can get into the 7th giving up only 3 or 4 runs most of the time that's probably the best we can expect.

 

The issue is that if we do make the playoffs, we have no one in our rotation that's the guy who will carry us all the way. No team in that situation has won it all in a long time. I honestly don't see even a guy who's going to be that dark horse the way Yordano Ventura was for KC in their only-just-barely-failed championship bid.

 

That's not a death knell, since there's time, and our prospects have some talent, and who knows, but it makes it hard to get particularly excited from here.

 

Dojji, you've grown up, lol. Not calling Henry Owens a 20 time all star is a good start. Your pen also lost quite possibly the best lefty reliever in baseball, so it's a bit weaker there. Your offense made some big moves and should be in the top 10 in offense this yr, but your rotation is a mess.

[cp176]

Your take is wrong.

 

It is my opinion. It is not wrong. It's just differs from yours. That being said, I'm sure that I don't have to tell you what opinions are like.

[cp176]

It is my opinion. It is not wrong. It's just differs from yours. That being said, I'm sure that I don't have to tell you what opinions are like.

 

 

Sorry - I meant to say - It not it's. I sense semantics are important to you. I also sense just a bit of condescension in your tone. You see I am proud but actually quite humble. I hope that you might be as right as you think you are with respect to my opinion.

[BSN07]

I'm ok with what they have now but would like to see them add a proven #1. Whether they do that at the TDL or next off season does make a ton of difference for me at the moment. I'm interested to see what this motley crew can do.

 

I'm with Ex1, there is no one I trade Swihart, Betts or Bogaerts for. Owens would sting but I could deal with it.

[BSN07]

It is my opinion. It is not wrong. It's just differs from yours. That being said, I'm sure that I don't have to tell you what opinions are like.

 

It's an internet forum. While it should stay reasonable, people are going to call you out on your "opinions", so you might as well get used to it. Yours and others opinions being considered "wrong or right" by other members is what keeps sites like this going. Not everyone is going to pat you on the back for every gem you come up with lol

[GomesBeard]

It's an internet forum. While it should stay reasonable, people are going to call you out on your "opinions", so you might as well get used to it. Yours and others opinions being considered "wrong or right" by other members is what keeps sites like this going. Not everyone is going to pat you on the back for every gem you come up with lol

 

This is complete nonsense! ;-)

 

Merry Christmas, everyone!

[iortiz]

Your take is wrong.

 

No, it is not.

[cp176]

It's an internet forum. While it should stay reasonable, people are going to call you out on your "opinions", so you might as well get used to it. Yours and others opinions being considered "wrong or right" by other members is what keeps sites like this going. Not everyone is going to pat you on the back for every gem you come up with lol

 

Well that's nice - thanks

[BSN07]

It's been pretty good around here this off season, no one wants any meltdown before xmas

[iortiz]

I

What's your definition of a "true #2?" My guess is that Masterson, Miley, Porcello and Buchholz have all had seasons where they pitched like a #2.

 

How many "true #1's" are in the league? 15?

 

#2? A consistent and durable 3.5 ERA pitcher.

 

Sure, they all have pitched like #2 and even like No. 1. at some point. Problem is I do not see any of them posting a 3.5 ERA nor 3 or below like a No. 1 usually does.

 

Almost every team has at least 1 or 2 #2. #1? Haven't counted but several teams have at lest one, and only a few have aces. Problem is I do not see a natural #2 nor #1 nor aces here who could match those teams.

 

Sure you can argue about their upsides and potentials or whatever like Porcello's but IMO this guy will be destroyed. As I said, hopefully I eat my words.

 

As for Kelly I've said before, I have more faith on him and Ranaudo than the combo just signed.

Edited December 24, 2014 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Unsurprisingly, iortiz has reading comprehension problems as well. No one here is content with the current state of the rotation.

 

Your old reading comprehension drum, haha

 

Seriously, haven't you seen people in social networks saying that we are oks if go like this?

 

Even your boy Cherington is saying this. BSN is saying that if we go like this he's oks.

 

I respect those opinions but I do not agree at all.

 

YOUR reading comprehension is the one which is collapsing here.

[cp176]

It's been pretty good around here this off season, no one wants any meltdown before xmas

 

Merry Christmas to all - Have to go watch that stock market rise. It better rise based on what I spent for the Holiday!

[mvp 78]

Seriously, haven't you seen people in social networks saying that we are oks if go like this?

 

Ok, so when you and Fred are saying people are ok with this rotation, it's because of people posting on Facebook/Reddit/Twitter and NOT because of posters on Talksox?

 

It's just confusing because a lot of people are saying "why are people ok with this rotation" when almost all the thoughts I've seen on here are stating that a #1 is needed and that this rotation is mediocre.

[dupree]

I keep seeing people talking about next year's FA starters. Well who cares this is here and now and if they don't add a legit #1 this year it's just another year of Ortiz, pedoria, hanley, panda, and all the rest getting older. It's stupid in my mind for a club like the red sox to throw a year away and not address a need that is a major need.

 

I say sign Scherzer and be done with it. Add one of those FA pitchers next year and the rotation is solid for years to come.

[iortiz]

Ok, so when you and Fred are saying people are ok with this rotation, it's because of people posting on Facebook/Reddit/Twitter and NOT because of posters on Talksox?

 

It's just confusing because a lot of people are saying "why are people ok with this rotation" when almost all the thoughts I've seen on here are stating that a #1 is needed and that this rotation is mediocre.

Not sure why you are so interested on this, but... I can't speak for Fred's thoughts, but speaking for myself, yeah I meant everywhere; I have said this before a couple of times FYI.

 

On the other hand, Posters like BSN feel ok going like this if we do not sign a No1, and still it is respectable. It's nothing wrong to think that we are already ok. Call me greedy or whatever but again, speaking for myself, I still feel that we need not 1 but 2 solid arms since I do not think that someone will emerge as No2, I've been saying this since last season ended.

[iortiz]

I keep seeing people talking about next year's FA starters. Well who cares this is here and now and if they don't add a legit #1 this year it's just another year of Ortiz, pedoria, hanley, panda, and all the rest getting older. It's stupid in my mind for a club like the red sox to throw a year away and not address a need that is a major need.

 

I say sign Scherzer and be done with it. Add one of those FA pitchers next year and the rotation is solid for years to come.

 

I see this eye to eye with you dupree. f*** 2016. Win in 2015, I already purchased my tickets for god's sake LOL.

[User Name]

iortiz, once again, you have reading comprehension problems. What BSN has said (and who are the other posters?) is that the rotation is flawed but if they can stay afloat they can buy a #1 as a rental before the trade deadline, just like many teams do. I don't agree with him in this regard, but you're absolutely taking what he said out of context.

[iortiz]

iortiz, once again, you have reading comprehension problems. What BSN has said (and who are the other posters?) is that the rotation is flawed but if they can stay afloat they can buy a #1 as a rental before the trade deadline, just like many teams do. I don't agree with him in this regard, but you're absolutely taking what he said out of context.

Zero RC problems here, just the opposite.

 

You are disputing that "No one here is content with the current state of the rotation"

 

Again... 1. You are assuming that I'm referring exclusively to talk sox members which is death wrong.

 

2. BSN is saying "I'm ok with what they have now"; no matter how much you want to sugar coat it; he feels comfortable with the current rotation which is ok but I do not agree. Would he feel more comfortable with a No. 1? yeah! Nobody is disputing that... Fact is that he is ok with the current rotation, that's pretty much the point and is a fact.

 

As always, You are the one who is taking things out of the context since you THINK and ASSUME what I'm talking about as facts for your own convenience and you actually have no idea what I'm talking about.

Edited December 25, 2014 by iortiz

[seabeachfred]

My take on this thread is that many of the current posters are somewhat satisfied with the current pitching staff composition. The discussion did drift a bit as to what type of lineup it would take to support their potential staff . That lineup does not exist at this time. With respect to Joe Kelly, I am fine with his potential but projecting him to be more than a solid 3 much like the rest of this staff isn't being fair to him.

 

CP---You are right on tune. Our offense is being talked about as being a Murderer's Row and that's a pile of crap. There is reason to believe that Vasquez will not hit, that Bogaerts might crater again, especially when he faces pitchers with runners on. How will Ramirez and Sandoval structure themselves in a tougher league, can Pedroia and Napoli come back strong, and is Betts and Castillo the real deal or Bradley and Middlebrooks in different clothing? When you try to weave through those answers and realize we have pretty much a potential horse s*** starting rotation, it surprises me that many are drinking the Kool Aid that Cherington and Farrell are pouring. You can't expect to win a pennant on the back of a bunch of 7-5 and 8-6 games, and unless our staff suddenly has a real epiphany that is what you can expect from candy ass Buchholz, the battered Masterson, and the inconsistent Miley. We have no ace, we don't even have a solid No. 2 man save for possibly Porcello and Kelly---and I don't want to bet the house on those two becoming our bell cows.

 

CP---I knew this might happen. We have a couple of posters here who keep saying they're of an independent mind and will castigate the front office when they screw up, as two people said, if they don't get us that ace we need. Well that's BS too because they are once again bootlicking the front office and acting like they can do no wrong. Keep to your guns. If the division is as bad as some say we might be able to pull it off, but if the Yankee and Rays pitching and Baltimore and Toronto's offense are jelling the Kool Aid drinkers will throw in the towel and be gone from the board by July.

[seabeachfred]

Ok, so when you and Fred are saying people are ok with this rotation, it's because of people posting on Facebook/Reddit/Twitter and NOT because of posters on Talksox?

 

It's just confusing because a lot of people are saying "why are people ok with this rotation" when almost all the thoughts I've seen on here are stating that a #1 is needed and that this rotation is mediocre.

 

Au contraire mvp...two posters here have already changed their mind and have come out solidly behind what the front office has done with the starting rotation. Yes, most of us think we are still very short at least one good starter, and in some cases, two. The only way we win the AL East next season is if the division is about as weak as it has been in the last 25 years.

 

Anyway, let me end this post and this day with good cheer. I wish you all a very Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukuh or whatever you choose to celebrate. Have a great day tomorrow.

Edited December 24, 2014 by seabeachfred