What can Joe Kelly become?

[cp176]

This is true. Pitching and defense still wins championships. More often than not, teams that win it all will have both good pitching and good hitting.

 

A team with below average pitching, as measured by regular season ERA+, has won the WS only 3 times between 1903 and 2010 (2.83%).

 

A team with below average offense, as measured by regular season OPS+, has won the WS 33 times over the same period (33.02%).

 

This doesn't mean that the team needs an ace to win it all. It means that we need an overall solid (above average) pitching staff, bullpen included.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/pitching-almost-always-wins-championships/

 

Well stated.

[Behindenemylines]

They don't need a lot of luck to be a 90 win team right now though. Just a bounceback from Masterson, and relative non-suck from Buchholz.

 

If Sox offense is as productive as being predicted, then the staff as made up will allow them to compete in a weaker AL East where teams lack that dominate pitcher. If Masterson and Buchholz can return to what they were in 2013 the Sox staff should be good enough to allow them to compete in the AL East.

[a700hitter]

At this juncture the trade of Lackey is not looking very fruitful for the Red Sox. We gave up one year and 2 months of Lackey at a steep discount for a pitcher that can't seem to achieve his potential and a spare part. At this point Kelly's potential continues to be reassessed downward, and there is no spot on this team for Craig. At this point, the ledger is greatly favoring the Cards on this trade.

[Spudboy]

At this juncture the trade of Lackey is not looking very fruitful for the Red Sox. We gave up one year and 2 months of Lackey at a steep discount for a pitcher that can't seem to achieve his potential and a spare part. At this point Kelly's potential continues to be reassessed downward, and there is no spot on this team for Craig. At this point, the ledger is greatly favoring the Cards on this trade.

 

While I still hold some hope that Kelly will be useful, I agree.

 

It is interesting that Lackey has chosen to play for the minimum this year.

 

One member here had said that he would have refused to do the same for the Sox.

 

Having Lackey, Porcello, and Miley sound a lot better to me.

 

His 2-2.5 year of outstanding production especially with RISP not withstanding, Craig is a stiff.

[Spudboy]

At this juncture the trade of Lackey is not looking very fruitful for the Red Sox. We gave up one year and 2 months of Lackey at a steep discount for a pitcher that can't seem to achieve his potential and a spare part. At this point Kelly's potential continues to be reassessed downward, and there is no spot on this team for Craig. At this point, the ledger is greatly favoring the Cards on this trade.

 

While I still hold some hope that Kelly will be useful, I agree.

 

It is interesting that Lackey has chosen to play for the minimum this year.

 

One member here had said that he would have refused to do the same for the Sox.

 

Having Lackey, Porcello, and Miley sounds a lot better to me.

 

His 2-2.5 year of outstanding production especially with RISP not withstanding, Craig is a stiff.

Edited March 27, 2015 by Spudboy

[Bellhorn04]

While I still hold some hope that Kelly will be useful, I agree.

 

It is interesting that Lackey has chosen to play for the minimum this year.

 

One member here had said that he would have refused to do the same for the Sox.

 

Having Lackey, Porcello, and Miley sounds a lot better to me.

 

His 2-2.5 year of outstanding production especially with RISP not withstanding, Craig is a stiff.

 

The one injury-plagued season makes him a stiff?

[sk7326]

The one injury-plagued season makes him a stiff?

 

Here is the thing - if Craig is just 75% of the 2013 version, his contract is damn near a heist. It is one of the good reasons the Sox acquired him. It does not take much for that contract to become a very attractive trade piece.

[Palodios]

I have never understood the Lackey trade. This team would look a lot better with Lackey pitching the first game in April, and the outfield situation would make a lot more sense without worrying about what do with Allen Craig.

[Bellhorn04]

If Craig gets his game back, and they don't trade him, he could be a perfect replacement for Napoli next year.

[Palodios]

If Craig gets his game back, and they don't trade him, he could be a perfect replacement for Napoli next year.

 

I have heard this argument, but we need to see how both Nap and Craig play this year. Napoli has a career .850 OPS -- people seem to forget that he's among the top 20 hitters in the majors.

 

I understand that a 33 year old catcher like Nap might as well be a 40 year old first basemen, but he seems okay so far, and the sleep apnea surgery may be a boon for his production.

 

Apparently this has gone unnoticed, but Napoli has a 1.100 OPS this spring.

[sk7326]

There is a lot of weird revisionism I read about Nap's lost season last year. When in fact he was one of the few Red Sox players who actually was every bit the player he was in 2013. There is something about a guy who doesn't put the ball in play a lot that makes him seem worse than he actually is.

[Bellhorn04]

I have heard this argument, but we need to see how both Nap and Craig play this year. Napoli has a career .850 OPS -- people seem to forget that he's among the top 20 hitters in the majors.

 

I understand that a 33 year old catcher like Nap might as well be a 40 year old first basemen, but he seems okay so far, and the sleep apnea surgery may be a boon for his production.

 

Apparently this has gone unnoticed, but Napoli has a 1.100 OPS this spring.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm a big Napoli fan. Just pointing out one possible avenue for Craig - also of course a way to make some payroll room for 2016.

[Spudboy]

The one injury-plagued season makes him a stiff?

 

He has not hit well in almost two years and plays only average defense at any position. Maybe stiff is harsh. Maybe "Unremarkable" is better suited. In any case I see him as redundant and non-essential on the Boston 25 man roster. Ship him out unless he absolutely rakes.

[Spudboy]

If Craig gets his game back, and they don't trade him, he could be a perfect replacement for Napoli next year.

 

I disagree. I would love to see Craig hit as he did in his two hot years. I just do not see it as likely now. I'd rather see Hanley at 1st next year if Napoli is not resigned.

[Spudboy]

I have never understood the Lackey trade. This team would look a lot better with Lackey pitching the first game in April, and the outfield situation would make a lot more sense without worrying about what do with Allen Craig.

 

I agree.

[sk7326]

The Lackey deal I did not like, although there is at least a chance the Sox got more assets from the deal, but not with a ton of certainty.

 

Pitching and defense will win ultimately - but balance matters too. The Sox should be able to hit. And the team profiles to be somewhere between above average to legitimately very good-excellent defensively. (shortstop is the only place where they might be below average, and that might not even be true)

 

Assuming Ramirez does not let the Wall psyche him out the way Crawford did, he will be fine in LF - and with that in place, the outfield has a chance to be elite defensively.

[Spudboy]

I see no way that this Sox team will be elite defensively.

 

Castillo is still an unknown. Betts is still raw in the outfield. Victorino stands more of a chance of being a no show than the GG he was. Hanley could be worse than Gomes.

 

Vasquez may need TJS or a long DL stint. Napoli is very good but will he regain health and keep it? Pedroia is who he is. As long as he is healthy he will be great.

 

Tub of goo is poor moving to his left where a proven substandard performer plays SS.

 

Not sure about the Pitchers.

 

I don't buy into the hype at all.

[cp176]

I see no way that this Sox team will be elite defensively.

 

Castillo is still an unknown. Betts is still raw in the outfield. Victorino stands more of a chance of being a no show than the GG he was. Hanley could be worse than Gomes.

 

Vasquez may need TJS or a long DL stint. Napoli is very good but will he regain health and keep it? Pedroia is who he is. As long as he is healthy he will be great.

 

Tub of goo is poor moving to his left where a proven substandard performer plays SS.

 

Not sure about the Pitchers.

 

I don't buy into the hype at all.

 

wow - guess I have been beaten with the optimists stick.

[Spudboy]

wow - guess I have been beaten with the optimists stick.

 

I was not attacking you or anyone on this board. I just do not believe the hype and rationalization for a weird and incomplete off season of roster building.

[Kimmi]

At this juncture the trade of Lackey is not looking very fruitful for the Red Sox. We gave up one year and 2 months of Lackey at a steep discount for a pitcher that can't seem to achieve his potential and a spare part. At this point Kelly's potential continues to be reassessed downward, and there is no spot on this team for Craig. At this point, the ledger is greatly favoring the Cards on this trade.

 

 

At this juncture, it might not look very fruitful for the Sox, but geez, it is extremely early in the juncture. I would prefer to have Lackey on the team right now, but we have a long way to go before we can determine whether this trade is fruitful for the Sox or not.

[Kimmi]

Here is the thing - if Craig is just 75% of the 2013 version, his contract is damn near a heist. It is one of the good reasons the Sox acquired him. It does not take much for that contract to become a very attractive trade piece.

 

 

Agreed. I think some people don't realize how good Craig was before he was injured.

[a700hitter]

At this juncture, it might not look very fruitful for the Sox, but geez, it is extremely early in the juncture. I would prefer to have Lackey on the team right now, but we have a long way to go before we can determine whether this trade is fruitful for the Sox or not.

CRaig is a spare part at best. Kelly had better pan out. I said at this juncture, and yes it is early.

[Kimmi]

If Craig gets his game back, and they don't trade him, he could be a perfect replacement for Napoli next year.

 

 

Farrell has stated that Craig is his first option, over Nava, to back up 1B. Management may be looking in that direction.

[Kimmi]

CRaig is a spare part at best. Kelly had better pan out. I said at this juncture, and yes it is early.

 

 

Craig is a spare part right now. He could end up being much more than that. Kelly is winning the Cy Young this year. Haven't you heard?

[Kimmi]

There is a lot of weird revisionism I read about Nap's lost season last year. When in fact he was one of the few Red Sox players who actually was every bit the player he was in 2013. There is something about a guy who doesn't put the ball in play a lot that makes him seem worse than he actually is.

 

 

This is because some people put far too much emphasis on strikeouts.

[Kimmi]

I see no way that this Sox team will be elite defensively.

 

Castillo is still an unknown. Betts is still raw in the outfield. Victorino stands more of a chance of being a no show than the GG he was. Hanley could be worse than Gomes.

 

Vasquez may need TJS or a long DL stint. Napoli is very good but will he regain health and keep it? Pedroia is who he is. As long as he is healthy he will be great.

 

Tub of goo is poor moving to his left where a proven substandard performer plays SS.

 

Not sure about the Pitchers.

 

I don't buy into the hype at all.

 

 

Geez Spud, it's not all that bad, is it?

 

The Sox might not be "elite" defensively, but they should be very good, with the only possible below average positions being LF and SS. By all accounts, Bogaerts is much improved at SS. Hanley might not be above average, but I can't see him being worse than Gomes. Tub of Goo has shown that he is way more nimble for his size than people give him credit for.

 

If Vazquez is seriously injured, that would be a tough hit to overcome, I'll grant you that.

 

Outside of that, I really am not hearing a lot of hype. Our defense projects to be very good.

[Kimmi]

I was not attacking you or anyone on this board. I just do not believe the hype and rationalization for a weird and incomplete off season of roster building.

 

 

I do not like it when Fred is one of the most positive posters on this board!!!!!!!

[SoxnCycles]

I was not attacking you or anyone on this board. I just do not believe the hype and rationalization for a weird and incomplete off season of roster building.

 

What hype?

All I hear is fans freaking out over not having a CY Young winner starting April 6th.

[Ogden]

While I still hold some hope that Kelly will be useful, I agree.

 

It is interesting that Lackey has chosen to play for the minimum this year.

 

One member here had said that he would have refused to do the same for the Sox.

 

Having Lackey, Porcello, and Miley sounds a lot better to me.

 

His 2-2.5 year of outstanding production especially with RISP not withstanding, Craig is a stiff.

 

 

 

Craig is a stiff based on what? ... a feeling in your bones? Lackey and his 4.3-4.4 ERA with a 1.35 WIP is a stiff. I'm glad he's gone.

[cp176]

I was not attacking you or anyone on this board. I just do not believe the hype and rationalization for a weird and incomplete off season of roster building.

 

I know you weren't attacking me. It does seem strange to me that all of the positive pundits who have been criticizing anyone who has even hinted that this pitching staff in general does look like it sucks have not come after you. I actually tend to lean in your direction but I haven't been able to get away with questioning any of their moves. Truthfully if I thought Owens and maybe other not named Swihart or Betts would get us Hamels, I would be tempted to pull the trigger.