2014 Offseason Thread

[iortiz]

Nobody would be dumb enough to take that bet. No team in baseball last year had 3 such pitchers. Only 2 AL teams had 2 such pitchers. You should lower your IP requirement to 180 or the 'qualifying' standard of 162 if you want to have a remotely realistic betting option.

 

If there was an actual betting line on each of the Sox SP over/under 4.00 ERA, with -110 odds, I'd bet 1 unit on Porcello under and Miley over, and 3 units on Kelly and Masterson over, and not touch Buchholz.

So what you are saying is that the only guy achieving an era under 4 and at 180 IP+ rate is Porcello ?

Edited February 6, 2015 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

The Red Sox are likely done adding to their Major League roster for the 2015 season, GM Ben Cherington told reporters, including John Tomase of WEEI.com, yesterday. “I would expect the group we have for spring training is in place and I would be surprised if there were any additions,” said Cherington. “I couldn’™t completely rule out a non-roster deal with someone, but we feel good about where we are with our position player and pitching group, so this is probably the group you’™ll see when we take the field in Fort Myers.” As Tomase notes, Cherington again ruled out the possibility of signing James Shields or making a significant run at Cole Hamels, as Tomase’s WEEI colleague Rob Bradford noted last month. Boston has added Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson and Wade Miley to its rotation this offseason, with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez joining the lineup.

 

They are comfortable with the rotation. I am not. Buch is in a contract year, so there is the hope that he has a big season.

[iortiz]

Seems like BC wasn't joking around when he said that he felt comfortable. Since I do not know how to say it in english I will put it in spanish. Que Dios nos agarre confesados haha

[jd98]

So what you are saying is that the only guy achieving an era under 4 and at 180 IP+ rate is Porcello ?

 

Yeah, that's my thoughts, but admittedly I'm usually pessimistic. I wasn't interested in your bet proposal, I was just suggesting that if you want to entice mvp78 to bet, you needed something more realistic.

 

Oh, and Buchholz could certainly be under 4.00, but he's way too inconsistent to bet on.

Edited February 6, 2015 by jd98

[iortiz]

Yeah, that's my thoughts, but admittedly I'm usually pessimistic. I wasn't interested in your bet proposal, I was just suggesting that if you want to entice mvp78 to bet, you needed something more realistic.

 

Oh, and Buchholz could certainly be under 4.00, but he's way too inconsistent to bet on.

 

I do not think you are pessimistic here. I think you are realistic. I even think that you are bit more optimistic than me, since I do not even see Porcello posting those numbers (4-, 180+).

 

Regarding MVP, you aren't helping man, he probably could've bitten hahaha. In fact he sees 3 guys under 4 and since we have "inning eaters" he probably could bite. Let's see if he takes the new conditions.

Edited February 6, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

This year I see strong Lups in NY and TOR. In BAL while some players are not anymore, it is still pretty dangerous. TB is the weakest but still could make some damage vs this mediocre rotation.

 

The Jays upgraded their offence, yes. The Yankees didn't, as far as I can see. Baltimore downgraded. Overall, it's a wash.

[iortiz]

The Jays upgraded their offence, yes. The Yankees didn't, as far as I can see. Baltimore downgraded. Overall, it's a wash.

 

Let's put it this way...I think ALE Lups are good enough to destroy this mediocre rotation. Time will tell, though.

[mvp 78]

3 of the current staff under 4 AND at least 200 IP? If so... I propose u a bet, 100 Bucks, what do u say?

 

I don't think any of them will get 200 innings

[Spudboy]

Seems like BC wasn't joking around when he said that he felt comfortable. Since I do not know how to say it in english I will put it in spanish. Que Dios nos agarre confesados haha

 

May God hold us confessed????

 

That how it translates in Google Translate.

[iortiz]

May God hold us confessed????

 

That how it translates in Google Translate.

 

Probably. It is an urban say so...I do not know if this in english has the same meaning.

Edited February 6, 2015 by iortiz

[Spudboy]

I'm just hoping for league average performance from this rotation as a unit.

 

I don't understand the Porcello skepticism at all.

 

Maybe the AL East offensive numbers are down from previous years. I have not looked. Regardless, it is still a tough division to compete in. I can see any one of the five teams scoring a wild card birth. Tampa is lacking in total swat and who knows how they will perform under new management? Their pitching is good, though, I am told.

 

I'm still concerned about the Sox rotation depth 6-7. I just don't see an internal candidate that can make a bunch of quality starts if called upon.

 

200 innings and ERA are nice to speculate upon. The lack of depth is real.

 

Maybe Owens will be "ready enough" at some point near mid-season. I doubt it, though.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Spudboy

[iortiz]

I'm just hoping for league average performance from this rotation as a unit.

 

I don't understand the Porcello skepticism at all.

 

Maybe the AL East offensive numbers are down from previous years. I have not looked. Regardless, it is still a tough division to compete in. I can see any one of the five teams scoring a wild card birth. Tampa is lacking in total swat and who knows how they will perform under new management? Their pitching is good, though, I am told.

 

I'm still concerned about the Sox rotation depth 6-7. I just don't see an internal candidate that can make a bunch of quality starts if called upon.

 

200 innings and ERA are nice to speculate upon. The lack of depth is real.

Do not worry, I think I'm the only skeptical here. While the majority expect something around 3.5 and 180+ IP, I expect something around 4.0 at best, and sure probably something around 180 IP. Hopefully I'm death wrong.

[Spudboy]

Do not worry, I think I'm the only skeptical here. While the majority expect something around 3.5 and 180+ IP, I expect something around 4.0 at best, and sure probably something around 180 IP. Hopefully I'm death wrong.

 

Of course you are entitled to your opinion as we all are. I am encouraged by his recent performance. Although an ERA of 3.50 or less is probably optimistic it could happen if he is a better pitcher with more experience.

 

Somebody on this staff better throw somewhere near 200 innings because I don't think there are any true long men in the pen at this point.

 

As always, just my opinions.

[iortiz]

Of course you are entitled to your opinion as we all are. I am encouraged by his recent performance. Although an ERA of 3.50 or less is probably optimistic it could happen if he is a better pitcher with more experience.

 

Somebody on this staff better throw somewhere near 200 innings because I don't think there are any true long men in the pen at this point.

 

As always, just my opinions.

...and it is fine... but you are giving the No. 1 spot to a guy who used to be a No. 5, just because he had one good year. Also he is not used to deal with that kind of pressure (being a No. 1.) and in a team like Boston where spotlights are always there could play against him. Some are saying that we should't care about his 2009-2013 because he was young and all... but when you look at his SO/9, it is still horrible. While his BB/9 and GB could cover his ass with our D (still to be seen, mostly since XB is not that good or at least hasn't proven), his SIERA is still around 4.0 and is not far from his career numbers and from what steamer is projecting as well at his 2015 ERA (3.97)

 

Again, it is just my opinion.

Edited February 6, 2015 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

Of course you are entitled to your opinion as we all are. I am encouraged by his recent performance. Although an ERA of 3.50 or less is probably optimistic it could happen if he is a better pitcher with more experience.

 

Somebody on this staff better throw somewhere near 200 innings because I don't think there are any true long men in the pen at this point.

 

As always, just my opinions.

We especially need 1 or 2 guys at 180 -200 innings to pick up the slack if Buch remains frail. Every year after he has stayed in the rotation for 170+ innings, his innings have fallen way off. Also, Masterson threw only 128 innings last year and hasn't thrown more than 126 innings. If some of these guys come up lame, the bullpen could be burned out by July. Last year, bot Lester and Lackey were putting up big innings. We should also not forget that 2014 was not an injury plagued year for Buch. He put up the second highest inning total in his career. He just stunk posting an ERA well over 5. I really don't know what people expect from him. I am not expecting much.

[a700hitter]

...and it is fine... but you are giving the No. 1 spot to a guy who used to be a No. 5, just because he had one good year. Also he is not used to deal with that kind of pressure (being a No. 1.) and in a team like Boston where spotlights are always there. Some are saying that we should't care about his 2009-2013 because he was young and all... but when you look at his SO/9, it is still horrible. While his BB/9 and GB could cover his ass with our D, his SIERA is still around 4.0 and is not far from his career numbers and from what steamer is projecting as well at his 2015 ERA (3.97)

 

Again, it is just my opinion.

I like Porcello as a #3, but how will he do squaring off against King Felix or Chris Sale.

[iortiz]

I like Porcello as a #3, but how will he do squaring off against King Felix or Chris Sale.

 

If my assessment is right and he posts something around 4.0, I do not see how we are going to match those games against true No. 1s and even No. 2.

[Spudboy]

Not to many teams out pitch the best pitchers in baseball.

 

I am resolved to my team not having the best or even adequate rotation since they have not signed a true #1 and #2.

 

I'm not sitting here wringing my hands. 2015 could be a disaster for my team even with an offense that has been bolstered by the addition of the two best available hitters and hopefully good if not full health from three guys who have been central to keeping the line moving in the past.

 

I am curious to see how it all plays out and I am sort of tired of hearing all of the premature kvetching about it. We have no say in how the team is built so no one who can change the construction of the team is listening. It is what it is!

 

I have my doubts about the Sox being able to add a top tier pitcher at the deadline. Teams that have those guys may still believe that they are in the hunt and there should be other suitors for those guys as well.

 

I doubt that the addition of one arm will put this team into serious WS contention, anyway.

 

Adding two quality arms in the 2015 off season is something that I see happening.

[mvp 78]

@sports_fool39: @RedSox Only 2 weeks to Pitchers and Catchers. Just fourteen more sunrises and fourteen more sunsets. It's getting close now.

#GoRedSox

[Kimmi]

Seems reasonable. Especially if he does not suck.

 

And I do not believe that he will suck.

 

That job belongs to laptop.

 

 

It's a good deal. If Miley just pitches as good as he did with the DBacks the last 2 seasons, he will be worth it. With a better defense behind him, and particularly better catching, I expect him to pitch better than he has the past 2 seasons.

[wyo-sox]

I like Porcello as a #3, but how will he do squaring off against King Felix or Chris Sale.

 

Bostons bats vs. Felix ...... vs..........Seattle's bats vs. Porcello,,,,,, I don't mind the match-up. Does Felix have the edge, sure.... but that could be said for 95% of teams or pitchers he goes against.

[wyo-sox]

@sports_fool39: @RedSox Only 2 weeks to Pitchers and Catchers. Just fourteen more sunrises and fourteen more sunsets. It's getting close now.

#GoRedSox

 

Here Here!!!! I'm getting pretty anxious. I'm putting the finishing touches on my back patio... kinda' my new Sox shrine / man-cave. Very excited to break it in with the 2015 season.

[Kimmi]

Here Here!!!! I'm getting pretty anxious. I'm putting the finishing touches on my back patio... kinda' my new Sox shrine / man-cave. Very excited to break it in with the 2015 season.

 

 

Baseball season cannot start soon enough for me. I am going through some serious withdrawal.

 

I need to make plans to get to Ft. Myers one year. I have never been.

[seabeachfred]

He doesn't throw hard and he doesn't have good secondary pitches. He will have to be very fine to be successful.[/quote

 

If Cherries thinks this signing is going to make up for his bosses blowing the Lester negotiations they all need more bran in their diet. As you said Ted, he has above average speed, but his secondary pitches leave a little to be desired. He better keep the ball down and move it in and out or he'll wind up as a human piñata. He can be successful, but he is going to have to really bow his neck and master the pitches he has.

Edited February 7, 2015 by seabeachfred

[seabeachfred]

The longball is a legitimate problem. But a GB pitcher playing behind a s***** D in a park that accentuates his weaknesses is a recipe for disaster. I noticed you conveniently leave out his FIP and xFIP, which are much higher on his body of work. There's plenty of room for improvement moving to a better park (yes, Fenway is a better park than Chase in this particular case) with better D, and in a timeframe where offense in the AL just ain't what it used to be.

 

For all our sakes you better hope you've got Miley pegged better than the rest of us, and while offense in the AL isn't as good as before it's a helluva lot better than that miserable NL West with stiffs like the Padres, Rockies and D'Backs cavort......and while I'm about it the Giants didn't look like a Murderer's Row offense either while the Dodger one was vastly overrated. I hope Miley does well.....and he's going to have to for us to make a real move upward this season. We'll see.

[Ogden]

I like Porcello as a #3, but how will he do squaring off against King Felix or Chris Sale.

 

 

I don't think Porcello starts out as the #1, but even if he does, the only time you are sure to match #1's for each team is opening day. Off days and rainouts make starting every fifth day totally unpredictable so seeing matchups of #1 vs #1 during the season is a crap shoot.

[seabeachfred]

Not to many teams out pitch the best pitchers in baseball.

 

I am resolved to my team not having the best or even adequate rotation since they have not signed a true #1 and #2.

 

I'm not sitting here wringing my hands. 2015 could be a disaster for my team even with an offense that has been bolstered by the addition of the two best available hitters and hopefully good if not full health from three guys who have been central to keeping the line moving in the past.

 

I am curious to see how it all plays out and I am sort of tired of hearing all of the premature kvetching about it. We have no say in how the team is built so no one who can change the construction of the team is listening. It is what it is!

 

I have my doubts about the Sox being able to add a top tier pitcher at the deadline. Teams that have those guys may still believe that they are in the hunt and there should be other suitors for those guys as well.

 

I doubt that the addition of one arm will put this team into serious WS contention, anyway.

 

Adding two quality arms in the 2015 off season is something that I see happening.

 

Are you kidding Spud? The lowballed Lester and lost him and they will not pay big money for pitching otherwise they would have done it THIS off season when the AL East is up for grabs. The only way your take on things can happen is that our team has another disastrous season like two of the last three and the media and press and fans absolutely go off the deep end and plaster Prune Face and his cohorts into embarrassment along with a lot of cancelled season tickets. And with so many pink hats around who don't s*** about the game or the team just the fact that they can get a ticket to Fenway will be enough for that. Good God, some of those types have been too frequent at Red Sox games the past half-dozen years and they're starting to act like those stupid and baseball ignorant fans we have our here in LA.

[Ogden]

It's a good deal. If Miley just pitches as good as he did with the DBacks the last 2 seasons, he will be worth it. With a better defense behind him, and particularly better catching, I expect him to pitch better than he has the past 2 seasons.

 

 

I don't know anything about Montero so are you saying his reputation is being not a very good handler of pitchers? I'm surprised that Theo brought him in if that's the case.

[User Name]

I will ask this though: How do you know that never re-signing Lester wasn't their intent fred? Pitching speculation as fact is fun fred, but none of us actually knows what happened there.

[seabeachfred]

I will ask this though: How do you know that never re-signing Lester wasn't their intent fred? Pitching speculation as fact is fun fred, but none of us actually knows what happened there.

 

You know USER, the more I keep thinking about it the more it is dawning on me that you could be absolutely right about the Red Sox not wanting to sign Lester. Too many weird things went down from the time we won the WS in October of 2013 when Jon said he wanted to stay in Boston and would gladly give Boston a home discount. Henry never moved at that time when it would have seemed the perfect time to do so. Then that lowball offer from Lucchino, followed by no progress and talks of any kind and then the trade. Lester could have been ours with a concerted effort so I think you hit upon something. I hate to admit it----no, not that you were right but that I might have had it figured wrong all along and that Henry and Co. took me and others for a ride when we tried to convince ourselves that they really wanted to keep him. What you've been saying seems to make more sense as each day goes by.