2014 Offseason Thread

[a700hitter]

If you see the value in stats, then we have no problem. ;-)

 

Just don't say that you don't need stats. You might not need them to enjoy watching a game, but you need them if you're going to debate on a forum.

I don't need them for my Red Sox. I use them for the rest of MLB to some extent or another.

[a700hitter]

They either don't understand them, or the stats don't support their opinion. If the stats don't support one's opinion, they must be useless.

It's odd to have this discussion especially since none of the posters here have said that they don't use stats or don't see a value in them, yet the assumption has become that some people completely dismiss stats and the explanation for that erroneous assumption is that those people either don't understand the stats or the stats don't support their opinion. This is a case of erroneous conclusions proving an erroneous assumption.

Edited January 26, 2015 by a700hitter

[Kimmi]

On another note, I hear that JBJ is the first player to report to camp.

 

Good for him. That bodes well for him, IMO.

[a700hitter]

If you see the value in stats, then we have no problem. ;-)

 

Just don't say that you don't need stats. You might not need them to enjoy watching a game, but you need them if you're going to debate on a forum.

I come here to share my opinions and to get the views of others about the game. I don't come here to debate opinions that almost never can be established to be right or wrong with any certainty.

[a700hitter]

On another note, I hear that JBJ is the first player to report to camp.

 

Good for him. That bodes well for him, IMO.

 

He might be the first to depart camp too.

[iortiz]

It's odd to have this discussion especially since none of the posters here have said that they don't use stats or don't see a value in them, yet the assumption has become that some people completely dismiss stats and the explanation for that erroneous assumption is that those people either don't understand the stats or the stats don't support their opinion. This is a case of erroneous conclusions proving an erroneous assumption.

Funny thing is that some people want to sound interesting when are talking about them or simply present them as rocket science LOL!

 

I have found them very useful in my betting model, but I think that you do not even need a high school degree to understand them. On the other hand, If you were talking about the designing of nonisothermal reactors I would understand LOL.

[Kimmi]

It's odd to have this discussion especially since none of the posters here have said that they don't use stats or don't see a value in them, yet the assumption has become that some people completely dismiss stats and the explanation for that erroneous assumption is that those people either don't understand the stats or the stats don't support their opinion. This is a case of erroneous conclusions proving an erroneous assumption.

 

 

My apologies. I didn't mean anyone in particular here. I don't know the posters here well enough to know whether they value stats or blow them off.

 

In my experience on other boards, those who discount stats do so because they either don't understand them or because they don't support their opinion. I'm betting that that is the case here too, of anyone who discounts stats.

[Kimmi]

Funny thing is that some people want to sound interesting when are talking about them or simply present them as rocket science LOL!

 

I have found them very useful in my betting model, but I think that you do not even need a high school degree to understand them. On the other hand, If you were talking about the designing of nonisothermal reactors I would understand LOL.

 

 

It's not rocket science, but you would be surprised at the lack of understanding.

[a700hitter]

My apologies. I didn't mean anyone in particular here. I don't know the posters here well enough to know whether they value stats or blow them off.

 

In my experience on other boards, those who discount stats do so because they either don't understand them or because they don't support their opinion. I'm betting that that is the case here too, of anyone who discounts stats.

 

It's not the case on this forum, and I realize that you are not completely familiar with TS yet. It really is time to move to the next topic. Lol! This one has gone in a number of clockwise and country clockwise circles.

[iortiz]

It's not rocket science, but you would be surprised at the lack of understanding.

 

I use sabermetrics in order to correlate them to the outcome of certain bets that I book specially on 4 1/2 handicap bets at bet365.com. Last year I adopted the IBM SPSS software since a friend who studied with me in collage recently got his black belt certification and encouraged me to use it in order to weight better the coefficients with a better numeric method suggested by the software based on the historic behavior of each stat. I only had been calculating linear weights based on their history. It improved considerably, from 67% to 72% of hit rate in 4 1/2 handicap bets.

 

I can't wait to test my model again this year since I have tuned it.

[Kimmi]

I use sabermetrics in order to correlate them to the outcome of certain bets that I book specially on 4 1/2 handicap bets at bet365.com. Last year I adopted the IBM SPSS software since a friend who studied with me in collage recently got his black belt certification and encouraged me to use it in order to weight better the coefficients with a better numeric method suggested by the software based on the historic behavior of each stat. I only had been calculating linear weights based on their history. It improved considerably, from 67% to 72% of hit rate in 4 1/2 handicap bets.

 

I can't wait to test my model again this year since I have tuned it.

 

 

I don't bet on sports and I don't understand a lot of what you said, but it sounds like you have your system down pretty well.

 

Good luck to you.

[iortiz]

I don't bet on sports and I don't understand a lot of what you said, but it sounds like you have your system down pretty well.

 

Good luck to you.

 

Thank u Kim.

[cp176]

I come here to share my opinions and to get the views of others about the game. I don't come here to debate opinions that almost never can be established to be right or wrong with any certainty.

 

 

Me too - I don't see any debate. We all agree just to different degrees. I think that is not a bad thing. I truly don't try to shove my opinion down anyone's throat certainly not when debating something like this. When I think baseball, I think teaching points. How to do the little things on the field the right way. Details - on the field- they are very special to me. I think that it is quite safe to say though that most people posting here don't care to listen to me talk about what I believe I know about the actual game. I am certainly a traditionalist just like you. If the actual nuances of the game have changed, I guess time just slipped right by me. I would much prefer to discuss whether or not anybody here thinks JBJ will come into this spring with a more compact tighter swing. If he does, he may have a chance and I hope he does.

[Spudboy]

It's odd to have this discussion especially since none of the posters here have said that they don't use stats or don't see a value in them, yet the assumption has become that some people completely dismiss stats and the explanation for that erroneous assumption is that those people either don't understand the stats or the stats don't support their opinion. This is a case of erroneous conclusions proving an erroneous assumption.

 

And I suggested that even with the use of stats one could come to the wrong conclusion!!!!

[User Name]

My apologies. I didn't mean anyone in particular here. I don't know the posters here well enough to know whether they value stats or blow them off.

 

In my experience on other boards, those who discount stats do so because they either don't understand them or because they don't support their opinion. I'm betting that that is the case here too, of anyone who discounts stats.

 

And no specific poster was signaled. He's just trying to stir the pot. Good response though.

[User Name]

And I suggested that even with the use of stats one could come to the wrong conclusion!!!!

 

If the wrong conclusion is reached, then the statistic was misunderstood, and we're back at square one.

[Spudboy]

If the wrong conclusion is reached, then the statistic was misunderstood, and we're back at square one.

 

Or the person that does not know how to interpret the stats is just dumb.

 

After all, most news media outlets reported that game balls were 1-2 pounds light. When, in fact, they were 1-2 psi lower in pressure.

 

I never underestimate the ignorance and stupidity of people.

[Spitball]

And I suggested that even with the use of stats one could come to the wrong conclusion!!!!

 

This certainly could be true on occasion, but generally it would not be more likely than a rule. Small sample sizes, for example, would be reason to draw a wrong conclusion. Generally, an opinion backed by a strong statistical argument is hard to declare a "wrong conclusion."

[iortiz]

And I suggested that even with the use of stats one could come to the wrong conclusion!!!!

 

Yeah look what happened with Papelbon. A lot of people suggested that he was done or was going to decline. The guy has earned his pay check thus far. A lot of examples are out there, for good or for bad.

[a700hitter]

If the stats were never wrong as a predictor of future performance, GMs would never make bad moves. Stats are interesting and fun and there is a place for them when debating relative past performances, but they and any other method are very imperfect at projecting future performance.

[iortiz]

If the stats were never wrong as a predictor of future performance, GMs would never make bad moves. Stats are interesting and fun and there is a place for them when debating relative past performances, but they and any other method are very imperfect at projecting future performance.

While I do like stats, I think they are a bit overrated these days and some think they are the panacea, and they aren't.

[Elktonnick]

There are those for some reason who insist on treating baseball Sabermetrics as sacred script. They become very defensive to virtually any critique about their utility. Economists and other social scientists don't have the same religious zeal over their metrics as a predictor of future performance as do some purported sabermetricians. I find that curiously amusing.

[iortiz]

There are those for some reason who insist on treating baseball Sabermetrics as sacred script. They become very defensive to virtually any critique about their utility. Economists and other social scientists don't have the same religious zeal over their metrics as a predictor of future performance as do some purported sabermetricians. I find that curiously amusing.

 

Not sure why they feel and act that way.

[seabeachfred]

I remember a story about Joe McCarthy when he was Yankee manager telling a sportswriter why he loved Joe Gordon so much. He called Joe Gordon over in the presence of the writer a said: "Hey Joe, what is your batting average?" Joe said, "I don't know". "How many Home Runs do you have?" The answer was the same. "How many runs have you driven in?" Again, Gordon didn't know. McCarthy told the writer that Gordon didn't care about his own accomplishments. He only cared about one thing -- winning, and that is why McCarthy loved him.

 

And when McCarthy left in 1946, Joe's days as a Yankee were about over. That winter he was traded to the Guardians for Allie Reynolds. Gordon led he Guardians to a title in '48, while Reynolds keyed the Yankees rotation to WS wins in '47, '49, '50, '51,' 52,' and '53. And do I feel like I ate something foul to have to write this.

[seabeachfred]

I have been a baseball fan since 1962. By 1964 and at the age of eleven years-old, I had a pretty serious grasp on the game of baseball and especially the Boston Red Sox. My family and I went to lots of games in the early 60s when you could just walk up to Fenway and get box seats for about $5.00 each.

 

As a kid, I played baseball and whiffle ball almost every day. I was also a voracious reader on the subject. I read The Sporting News cover-to-cover each week. It was 99% baseball stories and statics in the 1960-70s and was known as the Baseball Bible. I had hundreds of baseball cards and studied them. I had hundreds of statistics (Hr, RBI, Avg, W-L, BB, SO, ERA) memorized.

 

I have always loved baseball. I still watch virtually every Red Sox game as well a others I can get on my MLB television package. For me, it isn't about embracing the statistical side and dismissing the visual side. They both totally enhance each other. It is like a scientific study. I make observations, draw conclusions, and look at the statistics to support my opinions. Baseball isn't just a passion, it is a lifelong study.

 

To me, statistics are necessary on a baseball board. It comes down to using hard evidence (statistical facts) supporting a reasoned judgment versus someone expressing an opinion based on just more opinion.

 

A man after my own heart. Well said Spitball. In my case, I have always been cognizant of one stat that seems to get little play from sabermetric aficianados and stat geeks.....and that is how a hitter performs with RISP. If this item was kept as a yearly file by teams I believe that there might be more success rung up my teams. I have always believed that there are players who seem to rally when the chips are down and those who seem to simply melt away. Teams have to score to win....someone needs to drive in those runs and that's one reason I will never be one to dismisses RBI's. Some players seem to be able to drive them in, and some do not.

[Spitball]

Yeah look what happened with Papelbon. A lot of people suggested that he was done or was going to decline. The guy has earned his pay check thus far. A lot of examples are out there, for good or for bad.

 

Papelbon is in decline. If he is earning his pay check, why are the Phillies having so much trouble trading him?

[example1]

Yeah look what happened with Papelbon. A lot of people suggested that he was done or was going to decline. The guy has earned his pay check thus far. A lot of examples are out there, for good or for bad.

 

Are you being sarcastic? Sorry, I can't tell...

 

Papelbon hasn't been that good in Philly. I think it would be hard to argue that he's had any seasons as good as his BOS years after he signed there, and his FB has been in steady decline. Sure, he's been okay. Still a good closer, but not worth the amount he's being paid. From his performance alone I don't think he would warrant being the highest paid closer in baseball, but with the Sox winning the WS with another (much cheaper) closer I can't imagine people are actually feeling like the Sox should have done anything other than what they did.

 

The reason he wasn't a good investment wasn't just because he wasn't going to be as good. It was also because the role of closer is only really critical for teams that are actually going to win games. Philly has the equivalent of a very expensive FG kicker on a bad team. It's just not where resources should go.

[iortiz]

Papelbon is in decline. If he is earning his pay check, why are the Phillies having so much trouble trading him?

 

Not sure what Phillies want in return but he made the job and has delivered for what he has been paid, which is save games.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Are you being sarcastic? Sorry, I can't tell...

 

Papelbon hasn't been that good in Philly. I think it would be hard to argue that he's had any seasons as good as his BOS years after he signed there, and his FB has been in steady decline. Sure, he's been okay. Still a good closer, but not worth the amount he's being paid. From his performance alone I don't think he would warrant being the highest paid closer in baseball, but with the Sox winning the WS with another (much cheaper) closer I can't imagine people are actually feeling like the Sox should have done anything other than what they did.

 

The reason he wasn't a good investment wasn't just because he wasn't going to be as good. It was also because the role of closer is only really critical for teams that are actually going to win games. Philly has the equivalent of a very expensive FG kicker on a bad team. It's just not where resources should go.

 

You were already paying the same AVV in 2011 and his performance is kind of the same (even better last year, I would say), not sure what you are talking about.... and I'm not even considering the recent inflation in the last three years. If it is 10%, the NPV would look ridiculous, a bargain to me.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

When you look at the busts and injury prone closers signed like Hanrahan (7 M), Jenks (6 M), Mujica (5 M), Bailey (8 M) and Thorton who didn't close but still (6 M)... The Papelbon departure was a mistake considering the fact that he has been closing pretty well in Philly, and most important, he has stayed healthy. On the other hand those fat busts have cost us tons of money and wins. Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz