2014 Offseason Thread

[User Name]

Of the Nationals pitchers, i find Strasburg to be the least desirable because of cost, and injury risk. That's my personal opinion though.

[a700hitter]

Ace pitchers have been costing 1 bluechip + pieces these days, not 3.

 

What examples would be comparable to a 26 year old Strasburg under control for 2 more seasons?

[iortiz]

Because Pal's point is that they should go for pitching via trade. That is a different argument. I'm saying they should sign Shields and keep their prospects.

 

I'm supporting Pal's post since he said "The Sox need to find top tier pitching somewhere" and not the mechanism, but considering the signs showed recently by our FO I think they will do it (if so) via trading which would be absurd as I said . I agree with you, the best way to land SP is via FA without giving up any prospect.

[User Name]

I'm supporting Pal's post since he said "The Sox need to find top tier pitching somewhere" and not the mechanism, but considering the signs showed recently by our FO I think they will do it (if so) via trading which would be absurd as I said . I agree with you, the best way to land SP is via FA without giving up any prospect.

 

If reports are accurate, and Shields can be had for around 100 mill on a five-year deal, the Sox would be crazy not to sign him.

[iortiz]

Of the Nationals pitchers, i find Strasburg to be the least desirable because of cost, and injury risk. That's my personal opinion though.

 

 

JZ would be my pick if we go via trade, but again, he will cost us top prospects and we do not need to do that.

[dupree]

The odds of a RHP starter pitching effectively into his late 30s generally are not very good. Look at Halladay -- his career fell off a cliff at 35.

 

The Red Sox have been very clear on their opinion of old starting pitchers -- my guess is Bill James has given them plenty of hard evidence on that.

Agreed. Bill James had to be behind them adding all pitchers who throw low in the zone. I just wonder how long it will be before Shields signs now? I see the Nats holding onto all their pitchers for this year and blowibg it up next year. But if Shields falls to say someone like St. Louis is my guess, I'd say the asking price for Hamels will go up even more. So the FO is gonna have to make a move if they will add someone before the season because the price just heated up more with Scherzer off the board.

[iortiz]

If reports are accurate, and Shields can be had for around 100 mill on a five-year deal, the Sox would be crazy not to sign him.

 

Yup. 100 M would be a very fair contract for all parts.

[Palodios]

What examples would be comparable to a 26 year old Strasburg under control for 2 more seasons?

 

 

James Shields (2 seasons) cost Will Myers. I'd argue that the other two pieces (Wade Davis for Jake Odorizzo, a top 100 prospect) were of somewhat equal value.

 

Samardzija (1.5 years) + Hammel for Addison Russell.

 

David Price for (1.5 seasons) Drew Smyly + Nick Franklin, a top 100 prospect.

[a700hitter]

With Scherzer off the board, that leaves one top FA, Shields and the Scherzer deal probably drove up his value. Not getting one of the top FA pitchers this offseason was a mistake. I don't care what that old fossil, Bill James' numbers show. Relying on the trade market to land a number 1 is foolish. Not many teams are looking to dump their opening day pitcher in January for some prospects. Even if their are a couple of teams dangling top pitchers, some like Hamels will cost a haul in prospects and cash. Strasburg will cost a bigger prospect haul, and more teams can compete with us when trading prospects than can compete with our cash. We will be lucky if we get Hamel's. Their GM is an idiot, so it probably will not happen. He wants the top 2 prospects and to offload the entire salary. No one is going for that. Zimmerman will cost 1 of our top prospects for 1 year of Zimmerman. That would be tough to swallow. Strasburg is a pipedream. Edited January 19, 2015 by a700hitter

[iortiz]

Agreed. Bill James had to be behind them adding all pitchers who throw low in the zone. I just wonder how long it will be before Shields signs now? I see the Nats holding onto all their pitchers for this year and blowibg it up next year. But if Shields falls to say someone like St. Louis is my guess, I'd say the asking price for Hamels will go up even more. So the FO is gonna have to make a move if they will add someone before the season because the price just heated up more with Scherzer off the board.

 

I like Bill James and all but Is it me or Bill James is a bit overrated?. Not sure how's his hit rate predicting these days but I do not think it is very good.

[iortiz]

With Scherzer off the board, that leaves one top FA, Shields and the Scherzer deal probably drove up his value. Not getting one of the top FA pitchers this offseason was a mistake. I don't care what that old fossil, Bill James' numbers show. Relying on the trade market to land a number 1 is foolish. Not many teams are looking to dump their opening day pitcher in January for some prospects. Even if their are a couple of teams dangling top pitchers, some like Hamels will cost a haul in prospects and cash. Strasburg will cost a bigger prospect haul, and more teams can compete with us when trading prospects than can compete with our cash. We will be lucky if we get Hamel's. Their GM is an idiot, so it probably will not happen. He wants the top 2 prospects and to offload the entire salary. No one is going for that. Zimmerman will cost 1 of our top prospects for 1 year of Zimmerman. That would be tough to swallow. Strasburg is a pipedream.

 

Not sure if Bill James is behind of not signing Shields, but as You said, it would be a mistake letting pass this opportunity with this kind of arm considering as well the price even if it drove up a bit.

[BSN07]

With Scherzer off the board, that leaves one top FA, Shields and the Scherzer deal probably drove up his value. Not getting one of the top FA pitchers this offseason was a mistake. I don't care what that old fossil, Bill James' numbers show. Relying on the trade market to land a number 1 is foolish. Not many teams are looking to dump their opening day pitcher in January for some prospects. Even if their are a couple of teams dangling top pitchers, some like Hamels will cost a haul in prospects and cash. Strasburg will cost a bigger prospect haul, and more teams can compete with us when trading prospects than can compete with our cash. We will be lucky if we get Hamel's. Their GM is an idiot, so it probably will not happen. He wants the top 2 prospects and to offload the entire salary. No one is going for that. Zimmerman will cost 1 of our top prospects for 1 year of Zimmerman. That would be tough to swallow. Strasburg is a pipedream.

 

No most teams aren't looking to dump their aces this time of year. But the team has done enough to the rotation to keep them in it until June-July when teams will be looking to deal.

[iortiz]

No most teams aren't looking to dump their aces this time of year. But the team has done enough to the rotation to keep them in it until June-July when teams will be looking to deal.

 

I do not agree. As it is, I think that it could be too late to make a move in July.

[cp176]

I like Bill James and all but Is it me or Bill James is a bit overrated?. Not sure how's his hit rate predicting these days but I do not think it is very good.

 

Good news is that there is room for Bill James and all of his technical disciples as well those who prefer to watch closely and then judge. A healthy combination of both philosophies make it work I think. I would prefer a signing of Shields as opposed to a trade of prospects. I believe that he just turned 33. I would think that the number of years that he is looking for might trouble Boston. I hope that it doesn't. With respect to the people on board with trading prospects - I get that also. There isn't room at the top for what they have now. Eventually something has to give. I would personally just like a sign that they have a plan. Still quite hard for me to imagine that they would spend the money that they spent on free agents and not bring in one of the best pitchers out there because of the money. If they out of the starting pitching market, I'm glad they are spending their money and not mine.

[a700hitter]

James Shields (2 seasons) cost Will Myers. I'd argue that the other two pieces (Wade Davis for Jake Odorizzo, a top 100 prospect) were of somewhat equal value.

 

Samardzija (1.5 years) + Hammel for Addison Russell.

 

David Price for (1.5 seasons) Drew Smyly + Nick Franklin, a top 100 prospect.

 

None of these examples would be comparable to getting a 25 year old Strasburg for 2 full seasons.

 

When Shields was traded to KC, he was 29 or 30, and Myers was at the time of that trade more highly rated than any of our prospects. Odirizzi was a blue chipper too and worth more than Wade Davis.

 

1.5 years of Samardizja = 2 years of Strasburg? Not in my universe.

 

Drew Smyly is a 25 year old lefty just starting to come into his own. Him and Franklin is like getting 2 blue chippers for a 28 year old Price.

 

Strasburg is a pipedream for anything less than our top 2 prospects plus pieces.

[Palodios]

Doug Fister. This is a guy who has always been a #2/3/4 on his team and has always pitched like a #2, and sometimes #1. The Nationals traded junk to get him, and somehow he's their #5 now. A 50% GB rate fits well with this team, and he won't kill the budget

 

Maybe he's available for a mid-tier piece?

[a700hitter]

Doug Fister. This is a guy who has always been a #2/3/4 on his team and has always pitched like a #2, and sometimes #1. The Nationals traded junk to get him, and somehow he's their #5 now. A 50% GB rate fits well with this team, and he won't kill the budget

 

Maybe he's available for a mid-tier piece?

 

I think Fister is realistic and affordable. I think the Nat's will be looking to move Zimmerman instead.

[a700hitter]

I think we have to come to the realization that in 4 weeks we will have a staff of two 4's, two 5's and a 3 report to Fort Myers. They can be successful enough to be competitive if they stay healthy and take all of their starts. An injury to Bunch or one of the others and this will (not might) unravel very quickly. Ben messed up.

[Palodios]

When Shields was traded to KC, he was 29 or 30

 

You and I have vastly different ideas of what James Shields in his prime is worth. 230 IP a year at a 3.30 ERA in the AL East is worth significantly more than an injury prone NL pitcher who has broken 200 IP once in his career.

[User Name]

I think we have to come to the realization that in 4 weeks we will have a staff of two 4's, two 5's and a 3 report to Fort Myers. They can be successful enough to be competitive if they stay healthy and take all of their starts. An injury to Bunch or one of the others and this will (not might) unravel very quickly. Ben messed up.

 

What load of bull.

[a700hitter]

You and I have vastly different ideas of what James Shields in his prime is worth. 230 IP a year at a 3.30 ERA in the AL East is worth significantly more than an injury prone NL pitcher who has broken 200 IP once in his career.

 

They got 2 blue chippers for Shields. Wade Davis was a bull pen throw in, not at all equal to Odirizzi in value. Also, Myers was the #4 rated prospect overall. If he could field or run a lick, he might have been #1. We don't have a blue chipper with that pedigree. The closest that we have is Bogaerts. Would you be willing to part with him? That' s what it would take.

[Palodios]

They got 2 blue chippers for Shields. Wade Davis was a bull pen throw in, not at all equal to Odirizzi in value. Also, Myers was the #4 rated prospect overall. If he could field or run a lick, he might have been #1. We don't have a blue chipper with that pedigree. The closest that we have is Bogaerts. Would you be willing to part with him? That' s what it would take.

 

Wade Davis was a BA top 50 prospect with the Rays for 4 years before turning into a lights out reliever in 2014. Odorizzi was a top 100 prospect that hadn't hit the majors yet. I don't see them as vastly different in value.

 

The trade would probably take one of Bogaerts/Betts/Swihart plus one of the mid-tier pitching prospects. They would have to give up a lot, but not completely selling the farm.

[Spudboy]

Not sure what you mean with this but just as Pal said I am also tired of prospects that don't work out. The Sox need to find top tier pitching somewhere, hopefully via FA since they have money, and they clearly aren't paying top dollar on anyone these days.

 

What do you mean by this? The deals for Sandoval and Hanley were not for top dollar or are you saying that the Sox FO has not paid for pitching with top dollar?

 

I don't get it.

[Palodios]

What do you mean by this? The deals for Sandoval and Hanley were not for top dollar or are you saying that the Sox FO has not paid for pitching with top dollar?

 

I don't get it.

 

I was referring to pitching, and I assume iortiz is as well.

[mvp 78]

By hook or by crook, Boras tends to get his clients the money they wanted (present value calculation aside). Never doubt the master.

 

We'll see what he does with Xander in a few years.

[Spudboy]

Just looking at the Nats rotation. They are filthy stacked if the Scherzer signing has forced them to bumb this kid.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roarkta01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.mlbtraderumors.com

[Spudboy]

I think we have to come to the realization that in 4 weeks we will have a staff of two 4's, two 5's and a 3 report to Fort Myers. They can be successful enough to be competitive if they stay healthy and take all of their starts. An injury to Bunch or one of the others and this will (not might) unravel very quickly. Ben messed up.

 

I mentioned starting pitching depth yesterday. If the Sox don't add to that depth this could be the Achilles heel.

[mvp 78]

Sox signed Quintin Berry.

[Spudboy]

Oh joy.

[Bellhorn04]

By hook or by crook, Boras tends to get his clients the money they wanted (present value calculation aside). Never doubt the master.

 

His big ticket boys get paid, that's for sure. It's his small ticket boys that have been losers, arguably - Varitek, S Drew & Morales.