2014 Offseason Thread

[Station 13]

Lester was a known commodity without draft pick compensation. It is mind boggling the sox didn't blow away the Cubs for his services. Shields is 2 years older, costs you a draft pick, shrinks in big games, and hasn't thrown 16 games a season in Fenway. Scherzer is gonna cost more and cost you a draft choice. Any of the guys available next yr will either not be available due to extensions or cost you a draft pick. The fact that they didn't go to the well for Lester makes me think theyre done in the pitching market unless they can get a bargain.

 

Lester was never returning. They screwed up that relationship after he was the real World Series MVP or post season MVP for the Red Sox in 2013. That following spring, an offer 70M was presented. He never allow them to make a new case. The bridge was burn for good when they finally traded him.

[cp176]

Last comment = just can't leave it alone. Sherzer I really think will be right back in Detroit when the dust settles. Don't know where Shields will wind up. It kind of feels like the Sox are going to start the season with what they currently have. I truly hope not. Nothing close to a stopper and maybe a #2 in Porcello. The rest don't really inspire me to go stand in line for tickets. I coached the game to long to feel any comfort in a shortstop that doesn't look like he is going to be able to get it done in the field. If he hits great, but folks he is a shortstop. If you think for one minute that the fact that he might hit makes what he does in the field acceptable, you are wrong. I am a lifelong fan but I wish I saw as much there to get excited about as some of you folks think there is. Just time to get along and go along.

[Spudboy]

And of course the whole SS situation is seen as yet another aspect of what has been a mess of a position for most of the time since Nomar was traded.

 

Success has sort of obfuscated that.

[cp176]

Like I said - get along go along.

Nomar could sure make the great play. The routine , very basic play just average but a good average. I don't think ss play in the field has hurt them much over the past 9 years.

[a700hitter]

Like I said - get along go along.

Nomar could sure make the great play. The routine , very basic play just average but a good average. I don't think ss play in the field has hurt them much over the past 9 years.

XB's fielding is a concern. In order to reach an acceptable level, he needs a lot of coaching and work. Jeter was a terrible hack in the field in the minors, but he worked at it like crazy. Nomar had Pesky as his personal coach and he took a couple of hundred grounders from Pesky every day. I hope the XB is working intensely with someone. IMO, it is a necessity.

[a700hitter]

Like I said - get along go along.

Nomar could sure make the great play. The routine , very basic play just average but a good average. I don't think ss play in the field has hurt them much over the past 9 years.

 

Agreed for the most part. Except for last season when XB looked like he was out of position our shortstops have fielded adequately. The position has been a revolving door since Nomar left.

[crazydiamond]

Lester was never returning. They screwed up that relationship after he was the real World Series MVP or post season MVP for the Red Sox in 2013. That following spring, an offer 70M was presented. He never allow them to make a new case. The bridge was burn for good when they finally traded him.

 

Jon kind of wanted the fans to know that all along, you could have read it between the lines every time he said he would like "to feel wanted" wherever he signs.

 

Yes, more and more pitchers are being overpaid, but that's just the reality Ben will need to come to terms with, if we want to stay competitive and not get stuck with more Mastersons and Mileys next year.

[Palodios]

Yes, more and more pitchers are being overpaid, but that's just the reality Ben will need to come to terms with, if we want to stay competitive and not get stuck with more Mastersons and Mileys next year.

 

It makes me wonder if signing Porcello to a long term contract ASAP makes sense. The guy is 25. Sign him for 6 years, and he comes out at 31. If he turns out to be a #2 pitcher, it could be a bargain.

[Spudboy]

Porcello knows his projected value entering free agency. I doubt that the Sox would get a bargain but it should be investigated.

 

They will most likley wait until July - August to move on it if at all.

[cp176]

That might be a good idea. I think that if he stays healthy he will get better. I wouldn't like if I thought that by locking him up now it meant we stopped going after anyone else. I do like the idea - different

[crazydiamond]

He has a projected 3.1 WAR, 14th highest among pitchers, which could help him earn a lot of dollars on the market, he's ranked above Cueto, Hamels, Zimmerman, Shields, Samardžija and Wainwright in that category.

 

Zimmermann is surely someone we'll go after next offseason, but he'll earn $16,5M in 2015 and look for a substantial raise, Lester got only $13M in 2014, and we still couldn't strike a deal.

[Northern Star]

If he turns out to be a #2 pitcher, it could be a bargain.

 

But what if he doesn't?

[MJantomaso]

Yet another reason why I dont want HaMels. I can never spell his f***ing name correctly....and he has stupid f***ing hair. Reminds me of early 90's Keanu Reeves.

[cp176]

He has a projected 3.1 WAR, 14th highest among pitchers, which could help him earn a lot of dollars on the market, he's ranked above Cueto, Hamels, Zimmerman, Shields, Samardžija and Wainwright in that category.

 

Zimmermann is surely someone we'll go after next offseason, but he'll earn $16,5M in 2015 and look for a substantial raise, Lester got only $13M in 2014, and we still couldn't strike a deal.

 

 

First of all your post is innocent and good - please don't take this the wrong way!

 

What to hell is a WAR?

My interests are much simpler - ERA- Innings pitched - hits allowed-

Sometimes I consider strikeouts and walks but really not often. I am not guilty of over thinking for sure.

 

He may be ranked ahead of the mentioned pitchers but I sure would take

at least 5 of them a long time before I would take him.

[crazydiamond]

What to hell is a WAR?

My interests are much simpler - ERA- Innings pitched - hits allowed-

 

Mine as well, but I don't believe his agent will share our views instead of clinging to every detail out there.

[seabeachfred]

Lester was never returning. They screwed up that relationship after he was the real World Series MVP or post season MVP for the Red Sox in 2013. That following spring, an offer 70M was presented. He never allow them to make a new case. The bridge was burn for good when they finally traded him.

 

I totally agree with you on that Station. The front office screwed that one up royally and fans, the press and media must not allow them to forget it for one minute, especially if the team craters again with their C-, D+ starting rotation this coming season. The key was when the offer was made and refused the die had been cast because Lester never allowed them to negotiate with him again. Lucchino and Prune Face bear the responsibility for this debacle.

[seabeachfred]

It makes me wonder if signing Porcello to a long term contract ASAP makes sense. The guy is 25. Sign him for 6 years, and he comes out at 31. If he turns out to be a #2 pitcher, it could be a bargain.

 

Prune Face is going to have to understand that if Porcello is having a solid year he is going to cost money to sign, not what Henry thinks he should get or even the witless and hateful Lucchino, but what the market says he's worth. Remember, we don't have that great a record resigning our free agents, and our rotation is pretty rotten right now as it is. Masterson? Is someone pulling our legs? The guy sucked in both leagues this season and can anyone really count on Buchholz not scraping his pinky and being on the shelf for three months as is his habit? And maybe we can hire a couple of good minor league pitching coaches so we can finally develop some home grown pitching stalwarts instead of the duds we've since Lester.

[cp176]

Mine as well, but I don't believe his agent will share our views instead of clinging to every detail out there.

 

Great point! Sad that it has gotten to this but it has.

[jacksonianmarch]

Porcello has typically underperformed based on his FIP and xFIP. He had his best season of his career last yr. If you pay him as if he should repeat his career season, you are likely to be overpaying. A contract extension for the young pitcher right now likely costs you 9 figures. If he pitches amazingly, then you got a bargain for a season and you have the inside track to re-sign him, plus you have the capability to recoup a draft pick. If he is back to his career norms, then you likely have him on a one year deal to recoup his value because nobody will want to lose a draft pick for him. If he sucks, you could try to get him on a pillow contract. Extending him now is a good way to be on the hook for maximal dollars while potentially getting minimal return. His value has never been higher, you don't buy a stock when it crests

[cp176]

Porcello has typically underperformed based on his FIP and xFIP. He had his best season of his career last yr. If you pay him as if he should repeat his career season, you are likely to be overpaying. A contract extension for the young pitcher right now likely costs you 9 figures. If he pitches amazingly, then you got a bargain for a season and you have the inside track to re-sign him, plus you have the capability to recoup a draft pick. If he is back to his career norms, then you likely have him on a one year deal to recoup his value because nobody will want to lose a draft pick for him. If he sucks, you could try to get him on a pillow contract. Extending him now is a good way to be on the hook for maximal dollars while potentially getting minimal return. His value has never been higher, you don't buy a stock when it crests

 

Do I get to guess what all those letters stand for?

[Spudboy]

Do I get to guess what all those letters stand for?

 

Cp176 Check out a page called fangraphs. All the newer metrics are explained there.

[cp176]

Cp176 Check out a page called fangraphs. All the newer metrics are explained there.

 

Thank you. I am just a little to old fashioned.

[Palodios]

Porcello has typically underperformed based on his FIP and xFIP. He had his best season of his career last yr. If you pay him as if he should repeat his career season, you are likely to be overpaying. A contract extension for the young pitcher right now likely costs you 9 figures. If he pitches amazingly, then you got a bargain for a season and you have the inside track to re-sign him, plus you have the capability to recoup a draft pick. If he is back to his career norms, then you likely have him on a one year deal to recoup his value because nobody will want to lose a draft pick for him. If he sucks, you could try to get him on a pillow contract. Extending him now is a good way to be on the hook for maximal dollars while potentially getting minimal return. His value has never been higher, you don't buy a stock when it crests

 

If you can get a #2 for his age 25-30 seasons at 100 million, that seems like good value. Look at Tanaka, he got stupid money and has more red flags.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tanaka also came with ace upside. He also proved the ace upside. Anyone who scouted him could see it. He has arguably the best splitter in the world and some of the best command I have ever seen in a 25 yr old. The red flags were there, but his stuff jumps off the screen. Porcello doesn't have near the upside.

[iortiz]

If Cherries is not lying with his "We would feel really good if that's how we opened up", we are screwed up.

 

Seriously, How can a 190+ team end up with a crappy rotation like this? How?. Wow.

Edited December 23, 2014 by iortiz

[iortiz]

The more I read the more I think we are going like this. Geez!

[Palodios]

Tanaka also came with ace upside. He also proved the ace upside. Anyone who scouted him could see it. He has arguably the best splitter in the world and some of the best command I have ever seen in a 25 yr old. The red flags were there, but his stuff jumps off the screen. Porcello doesn't have near the upside.

 

Tanaka had three good months, that hardly grants him ace status, but that isn't the point.

 

In 2009, the Red Sox signed Lackey to be their #3 for 5/80, for ages 31-36. I see no reason why they shouldn't get Porcello to be a #3 for 5/100 at ages 26-30.

[vjcsmoke]

Tanaka had three good months, that hardly grants him ace status, but that isn't the point.

 

In 2009, the Red Sox signed Lackey to be their #3 for 5/80, for ages 31-36. I see no reason why they shouldn't get Porcello to be a #3 for 5/100 at ages 26-30.

 

Let's see if Porcello can even play in Fenway first before throwing around contract figures like 5/100.

Lester pitched better than anyone currently remaining on the staff and we only offered him 4/70.

 

In hindsight the Lackey deal was a good contract. The problem was that he sucked for the first couple of seasons and didn't prove his worth till the tail end of his contract. But Lackey had a much bigger and better body of work with the Angels than Porcello has shown thus far in his career.

[BSN07]

Dice-K had 3 months stretches at "Ace" levels lol. Let's pump the breaks with Tanaka being an Ace. He's a good P but to be an Ace you have to do it on a consistent basis for seasons, not months. Calling Tanaka an Ace is a slap in the face to guys like Kershaw, Hernadez and Wainwright.

[User Name]

"To be an ace, a pitcher not only needs the performance, but the durability"- Jacko, as long as it doesn't pertain to a Yankee pitcher, because then they have a separate "ace level" class.