2014 Lineup Thread

[Navafan29]

It's Spring Training. Spring Training stats mean nothing.

 

Wait, I thought we were only 5 games back of a wild card spot in the Spring Training Playoffs. Was hoping we'd win the Spring Training World Series this year.

[SoxSport]

You can pencil Sizemore in the lineup after today. Finally showed some power, hitting a HR. Looks almost too good to believe. JBJ will have to patrol CF in Pawtucket, until Vic gets hurt--which is frequent.

[seabeachfred]

You can pencil Sizemore in the lineup after today. Finally showed some power, hitting a HR. Looks almost too good to believe. JBJ will have to patrol CF in Pawtucket, until Vic gets hurt--which is frequent.

 

We still don't know how this is going to play out Sox Sport, especially with Manager John Farrell hemming and hawing back and forth, saying one thing one day and another the next. I think he just wants to get this one straight but I wish he wouldn't all but say Sizemore has the job one day and then back tracking and saying it is still wide open. Let's say for the sake of argument the Red Sox go with Grady. Your take is that Bradley down at Pawtucket would be the first one up, but what if he wasn't hitting too well down there either and Bryce Brentz was and Victorino got hurt. Wouldn't it be tempting to bring a solid power hitter up instead? The next few days JF is going to earn his salary and we all hope he picks the right way to go.

[rjortiz]

Brentz is going to get eaten alive at the MLB level. Too many strikeouts, not enough walks, and doesn't have the raw power that a player like Middlebrooks has to compensate. Also, according to most scouting reports, he's a below-average defender, and doesn't offer a lot of speed. If Victorino goes down, I think Sizemore goes to RF, and Bradley plays CF. At least, Bradley provides some quality defense.

[rjortiz]

I'd prefer Cordero over Badenhop

 

I disagree. Cordero is 39, and his last appearance in MLB was a disaster. Unless he's throwing 98 mph again, I'll take the guy who was at least average last year, and knows where the strike zone is. I think Badenhop contract is also guaranteed, and would be lost if the Red Sox sent him down. Cordero can be a depth option at Pawtucket.

[rjortiz]

I just don't get the sense of the Ortiz extension -- Ortiz is great, but there is no chance he will be worth it. He's 39 this year and will see some decline. After 2014, they could still extend him a 15 million dollar QO, and I seriously doubt anyone would want to give him two years, AND lose a prospect for a 40 year old.

 

I agree. The risk is pretty small that a team goes two years for a DH that old. That being said, it's not that big of a risk to sign the extension. Even if he completely flames out, they are only on the hook for one year. He's also a legend in Boston, and brings people to Fenway. I'd prefer year-to-year, but this isn't a terrible move.

[rjortiz]

A few roster situations still to work out: Does Sizemore start in CF? Does JBJ go to the minors? Do they deal Carp? Etc. I'm going to assume this roster for the purposes of this thread, though you can certainly weigh in if you think otherwise:

 

C - Pierzynski

1b - Napoli

2b - Pedroia

3b - Middlebrooks

SS - Bogaerts

LF - Nava

CF - Sizemore

RF - Victorino

DH - Ortiz

Bench - Ross, Herrera, Gomes, Carp

 

I assume they'll go with 12 pitchers for now.

 

So here's my ideal lineup:

 

Vs RHP

CF Sizemore

RF Victorino

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Napoli

LF Nava

SS Bogaerts

C Pierzynski

3b Middlebrooks

 

Good mixture of L/R, power spread throughout the lineup, less speed than last year with Jacoby gone. Really solid lineup.

 

Vs LHP

CF Sizemore

RF Victorino

2b Pedroia

DH Ortiz

1b Napoli

LF Gomes

SS Bogaerts

3b Middlebrooks

C Ross

 

Lose something offensively with Ross in instead of Pierzynski. Much more RH heavy lineup with Gomes and Ross in there, leaving just two lefties in.

 

Either way, those lineups should produce 800+ runs. Things change if JBJ stays and Sizemore goes for some reason.

 

I'd also consider moving Victorino or Pedroia up and sliding Sizemore down. Grady has more power than speed these days, but he's still a solid OBP guy when right (career .357 OBP). Having Middlebrooks down in the 8-9 slots means he can hit with less pressure; we can live with his low OBP and love his 20-25 homers from deep in the lineup. It gives them a viable threat at the bottom, thus lengthening the lineup.

 

I'd go with Nava, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, ?, ?, ?, Middlebrooks, Pierzynski. Draw the 5-7 spots from a hat. I'm not sure it really matters.

[seabeachfred]

Brentz is going to get eaten alive at the MLB level. Too many strikeouts, not enough walks, and doesn't have the raw power that a player like Middlebrooks has to compensate. Also, according to most scouting reports, he's a below-average defender, and doesn't offer a lot of speed. If Victorino goes down, I think Sizemore goes to RF, and Bradley plays CF. At least, Bradley provides some quality defense.

 

RJ, you don't know if Brentz would be eaten alive at the ML level any more than I do. We have only a small sample from ST but he did pretty well when he was in the lineup and showed good power. Bradley hasn't hit very well at all and he has struck out an inordinate amount of time. I'm not saying he wouldn't be brought up over Brentz; hell, I don't even know if he is going to be sent down. Brentz got a late start last season because of that gun accident and yet had a pretty good year at Pawtucket. What worries me a little is that Jackie hit in the 270's in both AA and AAA when promoted from A ball. Did we hype him too much or overrate him? Maybe he needs a little more time in the minors. Hell, I'm out here in California and can't see everything on my computer screen so I have only that and what I read and what stats I see posted to help me take an educated guess and that's about all.

[rjortiz]

RJ, you don't know if Brentz would be eaten alive at the ML level any more than I do. We have only a small sample from ST but he did pretty well when he was in the lineup and showed good power. Bradley hasn't hit very well at all and he has struck out an inordinate amount of time. I'm not saying he wouldn't be brought up over Brentz; hell, I don't even know if he is going to be sent down. Brentz got a late start last season because of that gun accident and yet had a pretty good year at Pawtucket. What worries me a little is that Jackie hit in the 270's in both AA and AAA when promoted from A ball. Did we hype him too much or overrate him? Maybe he needs a little more time in the minors. Hell, I'm out here in California and can't see everything on my computer screen so I have only that and what I read and what stats I see posted to help me take an educated guess and that's about all.

 

That is why I am making a prediction. I'm basing my prediction of Brentz on the fact that players with high K% and low BB% in the minor leagues do not translate very well to MLB. He wasn't even that great in AAA last year. A .312 OBP is below average at the MLB level, and he put that up in AAA ball. Maybe he'd be passable if he had other skills to bring to the table, but the scouting reports suggest otherwise. A .750 OPS (which I think is too optimistic for Brentz) RF with no baserunning skills, and below average defense is a worthless player. I think he would need two injuries to get the call.

 

As for Bradley, you should know better than to just look at batting average as an indicator for value. He strikes out far less, gets on base much more often, and he plays quality defense at a harder position. He's the better prospect, and much higher in the pecking order.

Edited March 26, 2014 by rjortiz

[reYoukilis]

As for Bradley, you should know better than to just look at batting average as an indicator for value. He strikes out far less, gets on base much more often, and he plays quality defense at a harder position. He's the better prospect, and much higher in the pecking order.

Theres been no indication of any of his minor league qualities on display in ST, its practically been the opposite. He strikes out alot, doesnt walk at all, and hits doubles instead of singles. That last part is fine but it wasnt supposed to be his game. Whats happening?

[rjortiz]

Theres been no indication of any of his minor league qualities on display in ST, its practically been the opposite. He strikes out alot, doesnt walk at all, and hits doubles instead of singles. That last part is fine but it wasnt supposed to be his game. Whats happening?

 

You are putting value on statistics accrued in March.

[User Name]

You are putting value on statistics accrued in March.

 

Which is the equivalent of putting value on an entire crop based on one fruit.

[SoxSport]

Brentz is going to get eaten alive at the MLB level. Too many strikeouts, not enough walks, and doesn't have the raw power that a player like Middlebrooks has to compensate. Also, according to most scouting reports, he's a below-average defender, and doesn't offer a lot of speed. If Victorino goes down, I think Sizemore goes to RF, and Bradley plays CF. At least, Bradley provides some quality defense.

 

Yeah, the OBP separates the men from the boys when the season starts.

[jopete19]

It's Spring Training. Spring Training stats mean nothing.

If Spring Training means nothing, then why is Bradley starting in AAA?

[rjortiz]

If Spring Training means nothing, then why is Bradley starting in AAA?

 

What's the point in keeping a young player on the bench? He'll get everyday AB's at Pawtucket.

[a700hitter]

This really surprised me. He gave up 0 earned runs in 8 outings. I thought he was pitching very well and that he would have been a great late inning option.

Red Sox Release Francisco Cordero

By Jeff Todd [March 29 at 11:20am CST]

 

The Red Sox have released pitcher Francisco Cordero, tweets Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. The move was expected after GM Ben Cherington said this morning that Cordero would not make the roster and was not expected to accept a minor league assignment.

 

Cordero, soon to turn 39, has not seen MLB action since 2012. Once one of the most reliable relievers in the game, the longtime closer had a rough go in his last big league season, putting up a 7.55 ERA campaign in 2012. Before that, however, he had gone a decade of full-time work without an ERA greater than 3.84, and had posted six seasons of sub-3.00 ERA pitching. In eight spring innings for the Red Sox this year, Cordero struck out eight while surrendering just one walk, five hits, and no earned runs.

[Bellhorn04]

If Spring Training means nothing, then why is Bradley starting in AAA?

 

Saying Spring Training stats mean nothing isn't the same as saying Spring Training means nothing.

[User Name]

If Spring Training means nothing, then why is Bradley starting in AAA?

 

Saying Spring Training stats mean nothing isn't the same as saying Spring Training means nothing.

 

Common sense right here.

 

And if ST stats are so important, why is Francisco Cordero on his way home right now....

[Behindenemylines]

This really surprised me. He gave up 0 earned runs in 8 outings. I thought he was pitching very well and that he would have been a great late inning option.

 

Hopefully, that means the Sox bullpen is loaded with arms and they elected to go with younger arms. Based on his spring numbers Cordero will find a job quickly.

[seabeachfred]

Hopefully, that means the Sox bullpen is loaded with arms and they elected to go with younger arms. Based on his spring numbers Cordero will find a job quickly.

 

It could also mean there might have been a little politics involved where they did not want to send down a favorite of theirs. I saw this done repeatedly between 2006-2010 with Manny Delcarmen. Except for a stretch in 2007 when he pitched well, the rest of the time he was a total waste, getting his and having trouble finishing innings that he started. Cordero had earned the right to make the team.....his pitching had been excellent. I think a couple of pitchers less capable than him got the break of their lives and made the team instead of. Let's hope this doesn't come back to bite RSN on their collected rear ends.

[a700hitter]

It could also mean there might have been a little politics involved where they did not want to send down a favorite of theirs. I saw this done repeatedly between 2006-2010 with Manny Delcarmen. Except for a stretch in 2007 when he pitched well, the rest of the time he was a total waste, getting his and having trouble finishing innings that he started. Cordero had earned the right to make the team.....his pitching had been excellent. I think a couple of pitchers less capable than him got the break of their lives and made the team instead of. Let's hope this doesn't come back to bite RSN on their collected rear ends.

I hope the Yankees don't scoop him up.

[User Name]

Apparently the idea "Spring Training stats mean NOTHING" is lost on some.

[Spitball]

I watched several of Cordero's appearances this spring. He hit 90 MPH only once and that fastball missed the zone by quite a bit. He seemed to sit around the mid to low 80s. That said, I was rooting for him but understand the concerns about his velocity. I have to believe the Sox wanted to see him reach at least the low 90s with some regularity.

 

I hope he signs with an NL team like the Reds who need a closer and bullpen help due to injuries. He seemed to induce a lot of ground balls this spring.

 

Cordero produced some decent numbers this spring, but the innings were too few and the MPH were too low to warrant keeping him around.

[seabeachfred]

Apparently the idea "Spring Training stats mean NOTHING" is lost on some.

 

Tell that to Jackie Bradley.

[User Name]

It wasn't the statistical issue. It was the fact that he was overmatched, and the scouts noticed, plus the fact that Grady didn't look overmatched, and not giving him a spot meant losing him. They couldn't give less of a s*** about spring stats, but they have a scouting team looking at guys and identifying weaknesses from the get go. As a guy who's said numerous times he worked as a scout, i'm surprised you don't see it from this point of view.

 

Basing anything on a sample size as small as ST is, well, pretty stupid.

[seabeachfred]

It wasn't the statistical issue. It was the fact that he was overmatched, and the scouts noticed, plus the fact that Grady didn't look overmatched, and not giving him a spot meant losing him. They couldn't give less of a s*** about spring stats, but they have a scouting team looking at guys and identifying weaknesses from the get go. As a guy who's said numerous times he worked as a scout, i'm surprised you don't see it from this point of view.

 

Basing anything on a sample size as small as ST is, well, pretty stupid.

 

Fifty something at-bats, a 150 average or thereabouts, 16 strikeout etc, is enough of a sample size to tell scouts and front office personnel that the previous high regard for Bradley was either wrong or they over-hyped a player who still needed seasoning. One hundred at-bats would have been better but enough was seen that even if they didn't have Sizemore there would be reason to worry if Bradley was going to be able to hit ML pitching. Coupled with his dismal performance last season, and the fact that he hit only 275 at Pawtucket, that's enough of a sample size to intimate that this guy just might not be the hitter they thought he would be. Not stupid at all, but perhaps a miscalculation on the part of some scouts who thought Bradley was better than what he has shown. Sorry to see it but if doesn't turn it around at Pawtucket it's possible we could have a potential bust on our hand. I hope not.

[vjcsmoke]

Maybe Carp will get traded. Nava can play Lf, RF

and 1B. Carp doesn't bring anything to the team that Nava doesn't bring.

 

Except that Carp can backup 1st base legitimately and Nava can't...

We held onto Carp for a reason. Unless he is looking horrible in ST I think he makes the team.

The only real question is what to do with JBJ. I don't mind if he starts out in the minors. I don't mind if he stays with the team to start.

I trust in our manager to make the right call.

 

If Spring Training means nothing, then why is Bradley starting in AAA?

 

And it's not just the stats. It's the player's approach at the plate. How he sees pitches, whether he remains disciplined and focused and knows what he is doing each at bat. A player can put up some good cuts and just be unlucky, striking the ball hard directly to fielders, etc. But I think our manager and scouts just don't think Bradley is ready yet to handle pitching at the ML level. It doesn't hurt to give him more seasoning at the AAA level where he also gets to play on a regular basis.

Edited March 30, 2014 by vjcsmoke

[jopete19]

I'm an idiot. I meant "Spring Training Stats mean nothing, then why is JBJ starting is AAA?"

 

If JBJ was batting over .400 then of course he'd be our starter. It's common sense, you play the better player. Stats do matter.

[jopete19]

It wasn't the statistical issue. It was the fact that he was overmatched, and the scouts noticed, plus the fact that Grady didn't look overmatched, and not giving him a spot meant losing him. They couldn't give less of a s*** about spring stats, but they have a scouting team looking at guys and identifying weaknesses from the get go. As a guy who's said numerous times he worked as a scout, i'm surprised you don't see it from this point of view.

 

Basing anything on a sample size as small as ST is, well, pretty stupid.

 

 

Yes, but his stats reflected that he was overmatched. I understand the sample size, but you've gotta admit his ST stats didn't help him.

[rjortiz]

Fifty something at-bats, a 150 average or thereabouts, 16 strikeout etc, is enough of a sample size to tell scouts and front office personnel that the previous high regard for Bradley was either wrong or they over-hyped a player who still needed seasoning. One hundred at-bats would have been better but enough was seen that even if they didn't have Sizemore there would be reason to worry if Bradley was going to be able to hit ML pitching. Coupled with his dismal performance last season, and the fact that he hit only 275 at Pawtucket, that's enough of a sample size to intimate that this guy just might not be the hitter they thought he would be. Not stupid at all, but perhaps a miscalculation on the part of some scouts who thought Bradley was better than what he has shown. Sorry to see it but if doesn't turn it around at Pawtucket it's possible we could have a potential bust on our hand. I hope not.

 

I wouldn't go that far.