2014 Projections

[reYoukilis]

If the kids light it up in ST I wouldn't be too surprised if Farrell ran this lineup out on Opening Day. If this lineup can work I think its the best case scenario and it would make sense Farrell wants to give it a shot to be successful. If Bradley bats .400 again and Xander is smoking bombs why not? Worst case they go cold and sink back to 8 and 9

You dont want to disrespect your veterans only to put them higher if the youngsters dont work out. Thats just...no.

 

Edit-My prediction is Victorino, Pedroia, Papi, Napoli, Nava/Gomes, XB, AJ, WMB, JBJ

Edited February 26, 2014 by reYoukilis

[Jaddy]

You dont want to disrespect your veterans only to put them higher if the youngsters dont work out. Thats just...no.

 

Edit-My prediction is Victorino, Pedroia, Papi, Napoli, Nava/Gomes, XB, AJ, WMB, JBJ

 

Good point reYoukilis, veteran respect and clubhouse hierarchy are probably greater influences than one might think when just throwing together a dream line up. We can look at what happened without it under Valentine. I read an article that made a point similar to that earlier today; it talked about Farrell and Tito in contrast to Valentine, whom the players didn't like or respect, particularly in the close quarters of the sox clubhouse.

 

But for the sake of conversation, and not giving up on my hopes and dreams (lol!), I wonder if that is less of a concern among some of these guys. Shane and Nava seem the type, if there are any in the majors, that would put their ego aside if John thought it best. And imagine the turnover rate for a lineup with Victorino and Nava in the 8 and 9! I agree your lineup is far more likely, but Spring is a time for lofty ideals, just throwing it out there! Cheers!

[reYoukilis]

Cheers! Trust me, I want your hopes and dreams to come true too, as well as alot of these other prospects, but I think its better to take it slower. Other than the reason I mentioned, theres they just won a WS where they delivered, there and all year long and another is that time is on the Red Sox side, so no need to rush things.

[Spitball]

AL East

 

Boston

*New York

Tampa Bay

Baltimore

Toronto

 

The Red Sox will win AL East easily and will win the WS over LA. The Yankees, Rays, and Orioles will battle it out for second. The Yanks will win out for the WC because Cano's production will be covered by improvements to key positions.

 

AL Central

 

Detroit

Kansas City

Cleveland

Minnesota

Chicago

 

Detroit will win easily and KC will beat out the Tribe in a close battle for second. Detroit will lose to Oakland for place in ALCS.

 

AL West

 

Texas

*Oakland

Los Angeles

Seattle

Houston

 

Texas will barely beat out Oakland, but the A's will beat out the Yankees for the Wild Card.

 

NL East

 

Washington

*Atlanta

New York

Philadelphia

Miami

 

Washington will beat out the Braves in a close race. The Braves beat Cincinnati in Wild Card game.

 

NL Central

 

St. Louis

*Cincinnati

Milwaukee

Pittsburgh

Chicago

 

Cards are the best team in NL, but will lose to LA in championship game. If Cueto is healthy, the Reds have the best rotation in NL but lose to Braves in Wild Card game.

 

NL West

 

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Arizona

San Diego

Colorado

 

LA goes to WS but loses to Boston in five games.

Edited February 27, 2014 by Spitball

[vjcsmoke]

I think this 'veteran respect' thing is overrated in terms of ordering your lineup. You set your lineup as best as possible to WIN GAMES. Not to stroke anybody's ego.

 

That being said, I think JBJ is too unproven to start at anywhere but the 9 hole, IF he makes the starting lineup.

I think that XB starts batting in the #6 hole, but I think he easily has the talent to eventually take over the #3 position if he plays up to his immense superstar potential.

To me, XB is like another Hanley or Nomar just waiting to happen.

 

If that best case scenario happens we are probably looking at--

 

1. Victorino

2. Pedroia

3. XB

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. WMB

7. Gomes or Nava

8. AJ Pierzynski or Ross

9. JBJ or Grady Sizemore

[sk7326]

I think this 'veteran respect' thing is overrated in terms of ordering your lineup. You set your lineup as best as possible to WIN GAMES. Not to stroke anybody's ego.

 

That being said, I think JBJ is too unproven to start at anywhere but the 9 hole, IF he makes the starting lineup.

I think that XB starts batting in the #6 hole, but I think he easily has the talent to eventually take over the #3 position if he plays up to his immense superstar potential.

To me, XB is like another Hanley or Nomar just waiting to happen.

 

If that best case scenario happens we are probably looking at--

 

1. Victorino

2. Pedroia

3. XB

4. Ortiz

5. Napoli

6. WMB

7. Gomes or Nava

8. AJ Pierzynski or Ross

9. JBJ or Grady Sizemore

 

I don't know if it's veteran respect so much as making sure the kids can handle the jobs. Being able to handle the defense at SS is something that XB is still working - and I could see the Sox wanting to keeping him out of the pressure of a run scoring spot in the order as he focuses on his defensive game. I expect that your lineup is a good April lineup - that said, if Bradley shows the progress he has shown at every level so far, he'll be at the top of the order by June. He just needs to focus less on the power game and stick to getting on base and letting the power numbers take care of themselves. (he has double figures-ish HR power, but should not be obsessed with 15-20 jacks or anything like that)

[reYoukilis]

I wonder how a Bradley/Nava, 1-2 punch would work at the top of the lineup? That'd be some good OBP power for Pedroia, Papi and Napoli.

[Dojji]

Not until JBJ proves he can hit big league pitching.

 

Once he does that, if he starts looking like a real option, I expect to see a lot of him in the 1 hole.

 

Until then, at least against righthanded pitching, your best leadoff option on the team is very probably Daniel Nava. Best of a number of bad options I should add, just to counter the obvious garbage from people who know who they are.

 

It would be Pedroia but I want him hitting lower than that in the order since he has the right skillset to work the count and extend a rally if he's hitting with runners on base. Seems a shame to waste him in the 1 spot when other guys can get on base and are less useful with a man on.

[redsoxrules]

I'd put Victorino as leadoff

[Dojji]

Victorino's a little light in the OBP department for my taste. He did alright last year but his track record suggests a mild regression next year.

 

It's a matter of difference in strategy I suppose, but job 1 in my mind for a leadoff hitter is to get his butt on base and Victorino's only OK at that.

 

i could see him taking the leadoff against lefthanders though. Having Nava bat leadoff against righthanders for the .411 OBP v right, and Victorino hit leadoff against lefthanders where his OBP is actually very good (.386) allowing his speed to play in his favor makes some sense.

Edited February 28, 2014 by Dojji

[seabeachfred]

Victorino's a little light in the OBP department for my taste. He did alright last year but his track record suggests a mild regression next year.

 

It's a matter of difference in strategy I suppose, but job 1 in my mind for a leadoff hitter is to get his butt on base and Victorino's only OK at that.

 

i could see him taking the leadoff against lefthanders though. Having Nava bat leadoff against righthanders for the .411 OBP v right, and Victorino hit leadoff against lefthanders where his OBP is actually very good (.386) allowing his speed to play in his favor makes some sense.

 

I hate to say it but the leadoff spot in our lineup is going to be a problem for us all season unless someone takes the bull by the horns and cements himself in that spot. I don't like the idea of alternating leadoff hitters depending on who is pitching for the opposition. Continuity at leadoff is what we should strive for and if Bradley can't do it offensively for us Sizemore can because he has done it and done it well before.

[Thunder]

What are your guys' thoughts on XB leading off? Based on how he hit last postseason, it seems like he may emerge at some point during the year as a good candidate.

[Dojji]

If Bogaerts does what I think he'll do next year we'll want him in the lower middle of the order.

[seabeachfred]

Bogaerts is a middle of the order type hitter, starting most likely at six or so and then within a year or two moving to fifth or fourth and maybe some day the third spot. He projects to be the type of hitter who can hit for both average and power and to put him at leadoff I don't think the Red Sox would get the best out of him. Since we don't have a prototype leadoff hitter anymore, the idea is no more strange than some of the other ones I've heard or some of the suggestions I've made myself.

 

Though it might be a tough assignment I would throw Bradley to the wolves and let him leadoff and when he sits we put Sizemore there since he has led off before. We may be underestimating Jackie's ability as a hitter. Why not take a chance on him for a couple of weeks and see how it goes. He can't be any worse than that crybaby we gave $143 million to a couple of years back who sucked big time for us in that spot and did his best work as a moaner, complainer and total underachiever.

[reYoukilis]

I would love to see JBJ as our future leadoff hitter. However right now I see him filling greatly as the 9th batter because if gets on you got a man on with the leadoff hitter coming up.

[Dojji]

I don't want to put a high level of pressure on a kid who's still learning how to get it done at the big league level. let JBJ ease in the same way we eased in a lot of guys before him. We don't need to throw players to the wolves in this town. I'm sure that's why Drew is even still on the radar despite the obvious presence of Bogaerts.

 

That said, if JBJ proves with his play that he's good for more responsibility, by all means give it to him, same with Bogaerts and Middlebrooks and same with a lot of the other rookies we have worked and are working into the team. Start him off gently and let him play his way into any role he proves he can handle -- that's how it's done.

Edited March 1, 2014 by Dojji

[East Bay Evans]

My 2014 MLB season predictions/projections:

 

Division Outlook:

 

American League East:

1) X - Boston Red Sox

2) Y - New York Yankees

3) Tampa Bay Rays

4) Toronto Blue Jays

5) Baltimore Orioles

 

American League Central:

 

1) X - Detroit Tigers

2) Cleveland Guardians

3) Kansas City Royals

4) Chicago White Sox

5) Minnesota Twins

 

American League West:

 

1) X - Oakland Athletics

2) Y - Anaheim Angels

3) Texas Rangers

4) Seattle Mariners

5) Houston Astros

 

National League East:

 

1) X - Atlanta Braves

2) Washington Nationals

3) New York Mets

4) Philadelphia Phillies

5) Miami Marlins

National League Central:

 

1) X - Pittsburgh Pirates

2) Y - St. Louis Cardinals

3) Cincinnati Reds

4) Milwaukee Brewers

5) Chicago Cubs

 

 

National League West:

 

1) X - Los Angeles Dodgers

2) Y - San Francisco Giants

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

4) Colorado Rockies

5) San Diego Padres

 

PLAYOFFS:

 

AL Wild-Card Game:

 

[ANA vs NYY] Winner: Anaheim Angels

 

American League Division Series:

 

[OAK vs ANA] Winner: Oakland Athletics (3-2 series)

 

[bOS vs DET] Winner: Detroit Tigers (3-2 series)

American League Championship Series:

 

[OAK vs DET] Winner: Oakland Athletics (4-1 series)

 

NL Wild-Card Game:

 

[sTL vs SF] Winner: St. Louis Cardinals

 

National League Division Series:

 

[LAD vs STL] Winner: St. Louis Cardinals (3-2 series)

 

[ATL vs PIT] Winner: Atlanta Braves (3-1 series)

 

National League Championship Series:

 

[sTL vs ATL] Winner: Atlanta Braves (4-0 series)

 

World Series:

 

[OAK vs ATL] Winner: Atlanta Braves (4-2 series)

 

Rationale: Speculation, ZiPS and Steamer projections and some dice rolling.

[Thunder]

I'm itching to change my initial predictions, but I'll let them be for now. The WC spots in the AL will be tough this year. KC and Cleveland are going after the Tigers, while the Rangers and Angels try to take down the A's. And we don't know who will rise out of the East. Initially, it seems like a 4 team race for the first half, dropping to 3 by the dog days.

[SoxSport]

Right now, I would pick the Nationals over the Braves. Could be their year. Braves have pitching issues, and a lot of hitters who don't get on base--except for Freeman. The Cards and the Pirates should fight it out in their division. The Dodgers are easy favorites with their huge TV contract and good FO--better than the Angels, who haven't invested wisely and are always short of pitching. Oakland does it with smoke and mirrors--they are lucky the Angels FO sucks. Beane just collects role players who get on base--plus a bunch of no name pitchers in a big park. Life is simple. Tigers again in their division.

 

The toughest division lately has been the AL east. Toronto will bounce back some. The Os and the Rays will be right there. The Os have been desperate to improve their pitching, but they are still short a closer. Getting rid of Johnson is almost as bad as the Yankees letting Cano go.

The Yankees, the media's team, are once again overrated--weak infield and uncertain pitching. The Red Sox are the defending champs, and are the team to beat. I figure SS will be improved, and CF will work out. Not sold on Sizemore yet. Pitching looks better--much better--than at this point last year. And it's always about pitching in this division. Their strong suit. This is a very good team, with excellent coaching.

Edited March 11, 2014 by SoxSport

[sk7326]

Nats are a very strong bounceback candidate. Their lineup SUCKED inexplicably all season in a way that sure feels non-recurring. Getting a quality #2/#3 starter for basically free helps too. Braves still have better position players - although Jason Heyward staying healthy would be nice just so he can have a full season to flash his MVP-ness.

 

Cardinals are the best team in the NL, and perhaps more. The strong lineup combined with a Tampa Bay-level bumper crop of pitching - they shut down a 15 game winner last season and their 7th inning reliever looks to have way way filthier stuff than the late season callup who started 2 World Series games for them - means an embarassment of riches. Pirates have a ton of prospect help coming too - especially if Jamison Taillon is ready for the show midseason.

 

Dodgers are the best in the West - especially since Tim Lincecum is a #5 starter being paid like a #2.

 

As far as the A's goes - Beane is the best GM in the game. He beat the market to OBP, and then when the price of OBP got too expensive, he beat the market to the evaluation of defense. Last year's division winners were 6th in OBP, the 2012 division winners were near the bottom. Beane saw the value in getting a near zero in OBP in Josh Reddick, and lean on his power and ability to field the hell out of his position to create value in that park. Had themselves an interesting offseason, adding Kazmir for a good price and getting Jim Johnson for a guy they gave up on. I like the Rangers more in the division - but the A's are gonna be right there.

 

Detroit in a walk in the central, although Cleveland is going to remain pretty good - good young players, an elite manager and a pitching coach who seems to perhaps be a true team asset.

 

As far as the East goes - last year I thought it was a 5 team race, and still do. Red Sox had the best combination of performance and injury luck and ta-da. But the Orioles got better - and they were a better team last season than the 2012 outfit without the phenomenal luck in close games. I liked the Johnson trade. He was going to be a big arbitration payment and Baltimore (correctly) decided their money was better spent on something other than a closer and so decided to save money there with a guy (Balfour) who is not going to be appreciably different. All four LCS participants last season had closers they discovered during the season - Tampa Bay picks through other team's trash for them - no point going to the mat for one. The Yankees got a little better, though their offseason would have made more sense if they actually kept the one superstar. Red Sox are gonna be good - although if you bet Sox v the Field, I'd take the field. Tampa objectively is the favorite in the division, but not by any real margin that matters. I like our chances this season as much as you can.

[East Bay Evans]

I liked the Johnson trade. He was going to be a big arbitration payment and Baltimore (correctly) decided their money was better spent on something other than a closer and so decided to save money there with a guy (Balfour) who is not going to be appreciably different.

 

Balfour was signed by the Rays.

[Behindenemylines]

With winter hanging on its hard to believe that the start of the season is a week away. I think the Sox will compete in the east with the Rays and $panks. Still see the Tigers in the central even with the injury to Iggy (Makes the trade a little better for the Sox). I see the Rangers coming out of the west (A's starting staff has injury problems). The National League division winners: Nationals, Cards and Dodgers.

[SoxSport]

A word about Tito in Cleveland. I think he's doing well there because he has a team that hasn't won and wants to. He is popular with the players and lets them play. His problem in Boston, I think, is he had guys who won and stopped wanting to win. When that happened, he had no leverage.Maybe he stopped trying to win, too. I always thought the team went downhill after '07. After James et al left the FO and Tito lost his bench coach-Brad Mills. In '13, James comes back to the FO, and what do you know, another championship. Not that others weren't involved as well. I hope the current championship team doesn't stop trying to win.

[seabeachfred]

A word about Tito in Cleveland. I think he's doing well there because he has a team that hasn't won and wants to. He is popular with the players and lets them play. His problem in Boston, I think, is he had guys who won and stopped wanting to win. When that happened, he had no leverage.Maybe he stopped trying to win, too. I always thought the team went downhill after '07. After James et al left the FO and Tito lost his bench coach-Brad Mills. In '13, James comes back to the FO, and what do you know, another championship. Not that others weren't involved as well. I hope the current championship team doesn't stop trying to win.

 

I was always a critic of Francona as a field manager and still believed he was very average at best in that capacity. However, is handling players, building their confidence, taking the pressure off them, dealing with the press, taking a bullet for some of the characters he dealt with (Manny anyone?), he was as good as they come. Events started smoldering after 2007 that helped grease Tito's skids in Boston. In 2008 problems with Manny Ramirez really infected the team and the front office was slow to act to deal with this human virus. A year or so later Lucchino started meddling in baseball operations again as he had done in 2005 while owner John Henry did nothing about it. By 2010 Henry was criticizing Tito's managerial skills while Werner was complaining about declining TV ratings and joining the meddling Lucchino in desiring "sexy" players, whatever the hell that meant. Hence millions spent on Gonzales and Crawford, very bad fits for Boston. The Red Sox had lost their way and it culminated in the collapse of 2011 and the train wreck season of 2012.

 

Last year the Red Sox got a second chance and seized it. Better later than never Henry got Lucchino back in his office worrying about the Red Sox brand, fund raising and promotions and let Cherington and Farrell run things. Good signing by Ben, a commitment to win and we got something none of us believed was possible.....A World Series Title. I think all people connected with the Red Sox from Henry on down to the players learned from that said experiences from 2008-2012. I think this time we will see no more of that sad spectacle again.

[Dojji]

I doubt it. It's human nature to forget lessons we never wanted to learn in the first place, We'll see Lucky push his tendrils back into baseball ops at some point

[jacksonianmarch]

This is not very accurate. He "stopped trying to win?" That's revisionism at its finest. He was given a bunch of guys who played for themselves and he got a bunch of individuals instead of a team. That being said, he started September of 2011 in first place and on his way to the playoffs. A bad month does not a career define.

[a700hitter]

This is not very accurate. He "stopped trying to win?" That's revisionism at its finest. He was given a bunch of guys who played for themselves and he got a bunch of individuals instead of a team. That being said, he started September of 2011 in first place and on his way to the playoffs. A bad month does not a career define.

 

He was clueless on how to stop the bleeding. If anything, he contributed to the debacle. I love Tito, but he was a big part of the problem that season. He was never a goodgame tactician, but in 2011 he lost the clubhouse too.

[SoxSport]

Sizemore looked like an all-star today, hitting a HR, and circling the bases like a rookie. He is sure to start the season in CF, unless he has a setback in the next few days. He is gaining confidence--you can see it.

[SoxSport]

I was always a critic of Francona as a field manager and still believed he was very average at best in that capacity. However, is handling players, building their confidence, taking the pressure off them, dealing with the press, taking a bullet for some of the characters he dealt with (Manny anyone?), he was as good as they come. Events started smoldering after 2007 that helped grease Tito's skids in Boston. In 2008 problems with Manny Ramirez really infected the team and the front office was slow to act to deal with this human virus. A year or so later Lucchino started meddling in baseball operations again as he had done in 2005 while owner John Henry did nothing about it. By 2010 Henry was criticizing Tito's managerial skills while Werner was complaining about declining TV ratings and joining the meddling Lucchino in desiring "sexy" players, whatever the hell that meant. Hence millions spent on Gonzales and Crawford, very bad fits for Boston. The Red Sox had lost their way and it culminated in the collapse of 2011 and the train wreck season of 2012.

 

Last year the Red Sox got a second chance and seized it. Better later than never Henry got Lucchino back in his office worrying about the Red Sox brand, fund raising and promotions and let Cherington and Farrell run things. Good signing by Ben, a commitment to win and we got something none of us believed was possible.....A World Series Title. I think all people connected with the Red Sox from Henry on down to the players learned from that said experiences from 2008-2012. I think this time we will see no more of that sad spectacle again.

 

Looks pretty accurate. Never believed Tito was much of a field manager. Winning MOY over Farrell was a joke. On the FO, it's hard to get a perspective here, since the media rarely talks about the machinations upstairs in an organization. I do think James' departure in '07 plus the furloughing of several saber consultants ("cost cutting" was the explanation--though they pay those folks peanuts compared to everybody else) hurt them. They had no one to tell Epstein he's nuts for signing/trading for those $20 million dollar guys. Especially Crawford. And we now know AdGon has lost some of his power stroke. You know what the star struck media did--they declared the Red Sox World Series winners before the start of the season.

 

The Dodgers are lucky they survived that trade with the Red Sox. It hasn't helped them a bit, except maybe for Mexican attendance. But they have so much Fox TV dough they can burn a pile of it every game. What helped them in the stretch last year was Hanley, Greinke and Puig. They were the difference, along with Kershaw. That kid Ryu is good, too. They are a team to watch--and not because of Crawford or AdGon.

[SoxSport]

With winter hanging on its hard to believe that the start of the season is a week away. I think the Sox will compete in the east with the Rays and $panks. Still see the Tigers in the central even with the injury to Iggy (Makes the trade a little better for the Sox). I see the Rangers coming out of the west (A's starting staff has injury problems). The National League division winners: Nationals, Cards and Dodgers.

 

I wouldn't overestimate the Yankees--like much of the media always does. Too many surprises have to happen with their pitching to make them contenders. And not with that infield. It boils down to pitching. The Rays have it. The Red Sox should have it. The Rangers are injury-bitten. In trouble. The Dodgers could walk away with it if Ryu and Greinke come through. The Nats will have to have a strong year from Strasburg. The Cards will always be tough with their young players--especially pitching. Plus the Pirates--very good organization. In the AL, KC might be a dark horse. The Tigers are never quite there. Miggy doesn't have much lineup protection this year. Plus no Fister. Verlander has to be OK.