2014 Projections

[mvp 78]

Yeah, losing your backup catcher, and injuries paving the way for an all-time best season from a closer is just awful luck.

 

My contention was with the phrasing "everything went right." Clearly, it didn't.

[rjortiz]

My contention was with the phrasing "everything went right." Clearly, it didn't.

 

Not surprised to see you making a bad point. You want to be a literalist and assert that 2%, instead of 0% of things went wrong, go ahead, but it seems like a giant waste of time.

[seabeachfred]

Wow, a700 put the Sox in 4th place. So disrespectful, I can't believe you would predict something like that.

 

He explained why RSFFL. He said he hates to predict his team to finish first because he's afraid that will jinx them. You know as well as I do that baseball fans are full of superstitions and that one is Ted's. I don't like to predict finishes either for primarily the same reason but now even more so because of the division we're in. Look at mvp's picks. He has the O's dead last but you know what? With their recent haul of a good starter and a slugging outfielder they could actually come all the way and win the AL East this season. That's how close and tough our division is.....and so could the Rays, the Yankees and us. Hell, even the Jays might make a big turnaround. I give kudos to those who make these predictions; I only hope they thought out those picks carefully.

[seabeachfred]

I was just trying to cling to hope in the Spring.

 

So was I Ted. I really had no clue what was going to happen to our team last season when they assembled at ST. The best I could hope for, and under perfect conditions, was maybe sneaking off with the AL East---a long long long shot at best. Since your dad was a Brooklyn fan as I was as a kid in Queens before my family moved West, I think you can understand what I am going to say better than most of our friends on this board. Right now if I was to compare our Red Sox to any defending WS Champion it would be the 1959 LA Dodgers. They came to LA the year before and finished 7th in an eight team league and they really sucked.....which made me do cartwheels. In '59 they came back, tied for the league lead, won a playoff against the Braves and beat the White Sox in the WS. In 1960 they had a large number of good prospects vieing for spots occupied by the old guard---Hodges, Gilliam, Snider, Podres, etc. They finished fourth. I'm hoping any comparison to that miserable outfit ends with that and we do not succumb to an off season of settling into the middle of the pack. They went with their old guard; we have the chance to having our "old guard", still fairly young for the most part, and augmented by some good young players------Bogey, JBjr and WMB----and that is one reason I don't want to resign Drew. I want to get this mixture of youth and experience blended in this season----and it can be done successfully.

Edited February 23, 2014 by seabeachfred

[seabeachfred]

Because I rarely predict standings and I had never predicted the Sox for 4th place until last year. They won the Championship. I am superstitious so I am picking them 4th again. What are you not getting about this?

 

Go for it my friend.....and worry the s*** out of Jacko. He probably wishes you picked the Red Sox to go all the way. I wish I could know that guy personally just to read him and know how he really feels about his team not making the Playoffs. So many Yankee fans I know have this feeling of entitlement that tells them a WS Title or it is a failed season. To give Jacko credit, he doesn't seem to be that type of Yankee fan, but, as I said, I don't know him personally to anything but take an educated guess at what motivates him.

[seabeachfred]

That's for sure. Let's just run down the list of improbables from last yr...

 

1. David Ortiz returns to his prime and plays a full season. The guy had trouble staying on the field the yr before and had some up and down yrs before then. So, at 38, he puts up a season akin to his age 30 season? Really, that happened

 

2. Pedroia blows out a ligament in his thumb that is needed for stability. He goes on to post a 5+ win season.

 

3. Clay Buchholz pitched like Pedro a la 1999 for half a season. The injury was the only thing that could equalize his yr.

 

4. Daniel Nava puts up an all star caliber yr a year after being DFAd.

 

5. Two of your closers blow out their arms. Your third closer, who has a long injury history, posts what is likely the best season for a reliever ever.

 

6. Mike Carp has a near .900 OPS

 

7. Salty goes from one of the worst catchers in the game to a 3+ win season in his walk yr

 

8. For the 60 games Iglesias played for you, he hit over .300. He'll never do that again

 

9. John Lackey goes from worst pitcher in baseball to beer and chicken scapegoat, gets TJ in his mid 30s and returns an ace

 

10. Stephen Drew stays healthy and posts a 3 win season after his ankle fell off.

 

I'm sure there are more, but you guys had EVERYTHING go right. The likelihood that happens again while losing key talent and relying on rookies up the middle is absurd

 

As Ted said, not everything went right for us last season, just the vast majority of things. OK on that, but keep in mind that from 2009 through 2012, we had about the worst run of luck imaginable. Bad signings, players running into one another for season long injuries, pitchers coming up lame, players going into the deep freeze in their stats, a totally f***ed up medical staff that made one miserable and wrong diagnoses after another, a veteran manager who became so distracted he was little more than a pet bear in his last season, and a new manager that was a total car wreck. Did I leave anything out? If so, jump in fellow Red Soxers. I'm sure I probably have. So Jacko, if things really even out in the long run as they say, or even if they don't always do precisely but come close, then we are due for a couple more seasons to make up for those four that we witnessed before the rising of 2013.

[seabeachfred]

AL East:

1. Boston

2. Tampa

3. NY

4. Baltimore

5. Toronto

 

AL West:

1. Oakland

2. Texas

3. Seattle

4. LAA

5. Houston

 

AL Central:

1. Detroit

2. KC

3. Chicago

4. Cleveland

5. Minnesota

 

NL East;

1. Washington

2. Atlanta

3. New York

4. Philadelphia

5. Miami

 

NL West:

1. LA

2. SF

3. Arizona

4. Colorado

5. San Diego

 

NL Central:

1. St. Louis

2. Pittsburgh

3. Cincinnati

4. Milwaukee

5. Chicago

 

AL Wildcard:

1. Texas

2. Tampa

 

NL Wildcard:

1. Atlanta

2. Pittsburgh

 

AL Playoffs:

Tampa over Texas

 

Boston over Tampa

Oakland over Detroit

 

Boston over Oakland

 

NL Playoffs:

Atlanta over Pittsburgh

 

LA over Atlanta

St. Louis over Washington

 

LA over St. Louis

 

World Series:

 

Boston over LA, in 6 games

 

That almost matches what I would predict my friend but am scared to, but this could be your lucky day. I would love to have the season end the way you say it would. Nothing would please me more than see our Red Sox in the WS again except for being able to play the Dodgers and slay them in the World Series. That happens, you get in touch with and I will send you a check for $75.00 to be used for your favorite charity---you or anything else. That's how much that would mean to me.

[seabeachfred]

Everything went right last year including: WMB getting demoted, David Ross missing half the season, Drew sucking balls for 2 months after a ST injury, Hanrahan sucking and missing 90% of the season, backup closer Andrew Bailey being a garbage pile, Andrew Miller getting a season ending injury and Buchholz missing the 2nd half of the season...

 

Seriously, NOT ONE THING went wrong last year.

 

Glad you cleared the air with that one mvp. I took the 2009-2012 era to show just how much the gods of fate were playing Russian Roulette with our ball club---and winning. We have a lot go wrong last year but I guess what Jacko was thinking was nothing went wrong in comparison to other seasons. If we wasn't thinking is that mode, then he was just paddling as fast as his mouth would let him up a river of ******** trying to save his own ass at our expense.

[Thunder]

That almost matches what I would predict my friend but am scared to, but this could be your lucky day. I would love to have the season end the way you say it would. Nothing would please me more than see our Red Sox in the WS again except for being able to play the Dodgers and slay them in the World Series. That happens, you get in touch with and I will send you a check for $75.00 to be used for your favorite charity---you or anything else. That's how much that would mean to me.

 

Those predictions are also eerily similar to mine. Seems like there's a general consensus to how things will play out.

[rjortiz]

A Yankee fan citing depth as an issue for another AL East team hahaha Yanks are the most top heavy team in the league with little to no depth just about everywhere. But Ya I'm sure everyone on the 25 man roster will be fine all year.

 

Beltran is old. Ells has a history of injury plagued seasons. Tanaka could flame out. Mo retired. Brian Roberts is an opening day starter. Let's just ignore that though!

 

And you didn't even mention Tex and Jeter's 'questionable', to put it kindly, durability status.

 

Saying that the Red Sox depth isn't bad, because the Yankees depth is bad refutes absolutely nothing.

[reYoukilis]

Many things went right but that's what happens on championship teams. The Red Sox are no different. I see it more like people playing to their potential not beyond it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your backup catcher got hurt? You're going with that? Oh and Hanrahan and Bailey go down, so your third option to close POSTS THE BEST SEASON EVER FOR A RELIEVER. So, you consider that a bad thing? Drew sucked for two months, yet still posted a 3 WAR season. WMB was demoted and in his stead, Iglesias hit over .300. Really, cry me a f***ing river. You're season was downright ridiculous. It won't happen again

[Palodios]

Your backup catcher got hurt? You're going with that?

When your starting catcher has Salty's defense, and awful splits, yeah it makes a big difference. They lost maybe 1-2 wins there -- WAR never tells the full tale on catchers.

 

Oh and Hanrahan and Bailey go down, so your third option to close POSTS THE BEST SEASON EVER FOR A RELIEVER.

If Robertson and Logan went down, would you be saying "Oh, well we have the best closer ever so it doesn't matter"? Even with Uehara in the 9th, it pushed up several arms from middle-inning jobs to late inning jobs. Workman threw 8th inning stints in the World Series. Yeah, that's not what you want to see for your team.

 

Iglesias hit over .300.

And so will Xander. Your point?

[SoxSport]

Glad you cleared the air with that one mvp. I took the 2009-2012 era to show just how much the gods of fate were playing Russian Roulette with our ball club---and winning. We have a lot go wrong last year but I guess what Jacko was thinking was nothing went wrong in comparison to other seasons. If we wasn't thinking is that mode, then he was just paddling as fast as his mouth would let him up a river of ******** trying to save his own ass at our expense.

 

What's surprising is they pretty much had the same record last year after losing Buchholz. A lot of things went wrong, but a lot of things must have gone right to balance out. You go through the team, and you can see all the successes they had and their great depth. I'm not surprised a lot of fans are picking them to repeat--they have a hell of a team right now. Plus strong coaching. But there are a lot of other good teams, too, and serendipity is always a major player.

[rjortiz]

When your starting catcher has Salty's defense, and awful splits, yeah it makes a big difference. They lost maybe 1-2 wins there -- WAR never tells the full tale on catchers.

 

You just made this up.

 

 

If Robertson and Logan went down, would you be saying "Oh, well we have the best closer ever so it doesn't matter"? Even with Uehara in the 9th, it pushed up several arms from middle-inning jobs to late inning jobs. Workman threw 8th inning stints in the World Series. Yeah, that's not what you want to see for your team.

 

Hanrahan was nowhere near the quality of Robertson, and as good as Miller was he still was a 7th/8th inning option. Not a big loss.

 

 

And so will Xander. Your point?

 

Xander won't. His point was that Middlebrooks sucked, but they found a better option anyway.

[Palodios]

You just made this up.

 

I ballparked the wins number, but it is by no means unreasonable. Salty had a .600 OPS against lefties. Ross had a .800 OPS against lefties. WAR does not factor in game calling, and pitch framing-- an area Ross excels in, and Salty fails at. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/

 

Hanrahan was nowhere near the quality of Robertson, and as good as Miller was he still was a 7th/8th inning option. Not a big loss.

You do realize Hanrahan was a top notch closer before he got to Boston right? 2011: 1.83/ 1.05 / .220 2012: 2.72/1.27/.187

I was referring to Bailey, not Miller.

 

Xander won't.

He hit .300 in all minor league environments where he has a large enough sample size, and .296 in the playoffs.

 

 

In summary, don't be a dick -- especially if you don't have your facts straight. You seem to be making enemies quickly here.

[seabeachfred]

I ballparked the wins number, but it is by no means unreasonable. Salty had a .600 OPS against lefties. Ross had a .800 OPS against lefties. WAR does not factor in game calling, and pitch framing-- an area Ross excels in, and Salty fails at. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/

 

 

You do realize Hanrahan was a top notch closer before he got to Boston right? 2011: 1.83/ 1.05 / .220 2012: 2.72/1.27/.187

I was referring to Bailey, not Miller.

 

 

He hit .300 in all minor league environments where he has a large enough sample size, and .296 in the playoffs.

 

 

In summary, don't be a dick -- especially if you don't have your facts straight. You seem to be making enemies quickly here.

 

I finally figured out that rj is a Yankee fan. That's what senior moments can to you Pal. I should have had it figured out from the get go.

[rjortiz]

I ballparked the wins number, but it is by no means unreasonable. Salty had a .600 OPS against lefties. Ross had a .800 OPS against lefties. WAR does not factor in game calling, and pitch framing-- an area Ross excels in, and Salty fails at. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/

 

Your estimate of 1.5-2 WAR loss for 150 LHP PA's from Ross was completely made up, and exaggerated. Besides, even if it were true that losing a backup catcher was worth 2 wins, what was the margin of victory in the AL East last year? It would have made no difference.

 

 

You do realize Hanrahan was a top notch closer before he got to Boston right? 2011: 1.83/ 1.05 / .220 2012: 2.72/1.27/.187

I was referring to Bailey, not Miller.

 

Hanrahan and Bailey were both awful in 2013, so their loss was a positive.

 

He hit .300 in all minor league environments where he has a large enough sample size, and .296 in the playoffs.

 

 

In summary, don't be a dick -- especially if you don't have your facts straight. You seem to be making enemies quickly here.

 

That means he's going to make a seamless transition. After all, he hit .321 in AA ball, so he's going to hit .300 as a 20 year old rookie in MLB.

 

Steamer - .261

Oliver - .269

ZIPS - .271

 

Keep your expectations lower. Also, if I'm making "enemies" on a baseball forum, that says more about you. You care too much about a game to let it affect you this much.

Edited February 24, 2014 by rjortiz

[rjortiz]

I finally figured out that rj is a Yankee fan. That's what senior moments can to you Pal. I should have had it figured out from the get go.

 

In the first post of this thread, I predicted the Red Sox will win the World Series, yet I'm a Yankee fan because I think the loss of a backup catcher is not that big a deal.

 

Another senior moment?

[jacksonianmarch]

I ballparked the wins number, but it is by no means unreasonable. Salty had a .600 OPS against lefties. Ross had a .800 OPS against lefties. WAR does not factor in game calling, and pitch framing-- an area Ross excels in, and Salty fails at. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/

 

 

You do realize Hanrahan was a top notch closer before he got to Boston right? 2011: 1.83/ 1.05 / .220 2012: 2.72/1.27/.187

I was referring to Bailey, not Miller.

 

 

He hit .300 in all minor league environments where he has a large enough sample size, and .296 in the playoffs.

 

 

In summary, don't be a dick -- especially if you don't have your facts straight. You seem to be making enemies quickly here.

 

Bogaerts has hit .300 or higher exactly once in the minors over a full season since he came stateside in 2011.

 

2011- .260

2012- .307

2013- .297

 

Just wanted to give you some facts. BTW, if Bogaerts somehow hits .300 in his age 21 season, then you should line up a spot on the wall for his number to be retired. The kid can play, but let's hold off on predicting an all-star rookie campaign until you actually see how he starts the yr. And let's also remember that some high level prospects do not live up to expectations. Where is the 20 time all-star in waiting now? Dojji, can you help me with this? I think the kid plays well, but the likelihood that he's a .300 hitter is insanely low.

[Palodios]

Your estimate of 1.5-2 WAR loss for 150 LHP PA's from Ross was completely made up, and exaggerated. Besides, even if it were true that losing a backup catcher was worth 2 wins, what was the margin of victory in the AL East last year? It would have made no difference.

 

I said 1 to 2 wins. I am not saying 4-5 wins, or something crazy like that. We're talking about turning a .600 OPS to a .800 OPS for half the season, and adding defense for half the season. Sure it is conceptual, but it is perfectly logical.

 

Hanrahan and Bailey were both awful in 2013, so their loss was a positive.

You're making absolutely no sense. If Robertson and Rivera started the season with 9.00 ERAs, and then immediately got hurt, would you be arguing that the loss of their seasons was a positive for the Yankees? Absolutely not.

 

 

That means he's going to make a seamless transition. After all, he hit .321 in AA ball, so he's going to hit .300 as a 20 year old rookie in MLB.

Maybe, maybe not. But all signs point to him starting out strong.

 

 

 

Keep your expectations lower. Also, if I'm making "enemies" on a baseball forum, that says more about you. You care too much about a game to let it affect you this much.

This has nothing to do with my affection for the game -- more about the way you're talking to myself and other posters here.

[mvp 78]

Bogaerts has hit .300 or higher exactly once in the minors over a full season since he came stateside in 2011.

 

2011- .260

2012- .307

2013- .297

 

Just wanted to give you some facts. BTW, if Bogaerts somehow hits .300 in his age 21 season, then you should line up a spot on the wall for his number to be retired. The kid can play, but let's hold off on predicting an all-star rookie campaign until you actually see how he starts the yr. And let's also remember that some high level prospects do not live up to expectations. Where is the 20 time all-star in waiting now? Dojji, can you help me with this? I think the kid plays well, but the likelihood that he's a .300 hitter is insanely low.

 

Says the guy who had shelf space reserved for Pineda CY trophies...

[jacksonianmarch]

where is that? I am just happy Pineda is throwing with velocity. I don't even think he breaks camp with the Yankees

[rjortiz]

Says the guy who had shelf space reserved for Pineda CY trophies...

 

Notice how there is no attempt to refute the point.

[jacksonianmarch]

Notice how there is no attempt to refute the point.

 

It's a ridiculous point. I've never said anything about Pineda winning a CY. I'd be happy if he actually found the mound in a Yankee uniform. I am cautiously optimistic about him. But I am not counting on him

[mvp 78]

Sorry that some people struggle with hyperbole on here.

[seabeachfred]

In the first post of this thread, I predicted the Red Sox will win the World Series, yet I'm a Yankee fan because I think the loss of a backup catcher is not that big a deal.

 

Another senior moment?

 

Blew that one too, did I? Well, back to the laboratory. Help me out RJ. Are you a Red Sox or Yankee fan? As you posted I can use a little help there.

[rjortiz]

Sorry that some people struggle with hyperbole on here.

 

While you struggle with logic and reasoning.

[Thunder]

Sorry that some people struggle with hyperbole on here.

 

All the eyes in the world turn to me.

[Jaddy]

WS Game 1 Lineup: Jackie, Xander, Pedey, Papi, Naps, AJ, Will, Shane, Nava

 

If the kids light it up in ST I wouldn't be too surprised if Farrell ran this lineup out on Opening Day. If this lineup can work I think its the best case scenario and it would make sense Farrell wants to give it a shot to be successful. If Bradley bats .400 again and Xander is smoking bombs why not? Worst case they go cold and sink back to 8 and 9