Is Shin Soo Choo worth 18m per year for the Red Sox?

[RedSoxNC84]

I think he's definitely shown he would rather a well rounded 25 man roster than while making quiet moves than big splashy spending or trades. But that's not what I was referring to. I'm talking about his tight lipped demeanor which suits him and suits Boston sports. Similar to Belichick, Ainge, and now Stevens as well as Farrell.

 

That's what I like most about Ben. He doesn't go around sporting a public boner for big name players and show his cards to everyone letting them know what he's going to do. He plays it smart, and so far he's played it well.

[sk7326]

Choo at $18M is completely sensible for the Red Sox. The number of years is the larger issue there. I have my reservations about his splits etc, but $18M is a very fair valuation for an on-base machine who can play a corner decently.

[RedSoxNC84]

Choo at $18M is completely sensible for the Red Sox. The number of years is the larger issue there. I have my reservations about his splits etc, but $18M is a very fair valuation for an on-base machine who can play a corner decently.

 

 

I knew I should have said year instead of 18MM per. 18/yr would make sense over 3 years or so, wouldn't go any farther than that really though.

[Dojji]

I knew I should have said year instead of 18MM per. 18/yr would make sense over 3 years or so, wouldn't go any farther than that really though.

 

 

It's gonna take 5, 4 at the very very least.

[sk7326]

It's gonna take 5, 4 at the very very least.

 

5 years with him would bother me a little less in that his skills (batting eye, some measure of power) tend to age fairly well. The back end of the contract he might not be "worth" $18M/yr, but he is still probably a 2-3 win sort of player who can play an adequate LF. IF the Red Sox want to pay a premium to get him, I understand ... it's not like he'd end up a Vernon Wells level flaming train wreck at the back end of the deal.

[marklmw]

5 years with him would bother me a little less in that his skills (batting eye, some measure of power) tend to age fairly well. The back end of the contract he might not be "worth" $18M/yr, but he is still probably a 2-3 win sort of player who can play an adequate LF. IF the Red Sox want to pay a premium to get him, I understand ... it's not like he'd end up a Vernon Wells level flaming train wreck at the back end of the deal.

 

You can't say that ... who can predict who flames out ... obviously if they could they never would have signed Vernon Wells. If the Sox sign Choo I will welcome him with open arms ... I will route for him every AB .... and I will continue to do so until he is no longer playing for the Sox. Will he help us next year ... absolutely. Will he help us in 5 years ... who knows.

[sk7326]

You can't say that ... who can predict who flames out ... obviously if they could they never would have signed Vernon Wells. If the Sox sign Choo I will welcome him with open arms ... I will route for him every AB .... and I will continue to do so until he is no longer playing for the Sox. Will he help us next year ... absolutely. Will he help us in 5 years ... who knows.

 

We don't know anything - can only deal in comparable cases and long run averages. Guys with good "lead off" type skills have generally been able to contribute in those areas into dotage to some degree.

[Jaddy]

I'd put the sox signing Choo at -50% chance

[SoxSport]

Looks like the meetings were a big zero for the Red Sox. They did their due diligence prior to the meetings and improved the team.

Those guys at MLB TV set up shop in the hotel lobby around the clock, and had little to talk about in the way of new things. So they wound up talking about the Yankees about half the time--never suggesting that they screwed the pooch letting Cano and Grandy go. You wonder if they would have signed Ellsbury if he hadn't played for the Red Sox. LOL. Now they're quoted as saying Ells and Gardner will share CF! I had to bold that one. Gardner must be feeling underpaid.

 

The Dodgers quickly found out they weren't going to be able to deal Kemp until his injuries are healed. The Red Sox still have a fetish for a RHd power hitter in the OF, so they may address the Kemp situation later during ST, or even go after Stanton. Though I think they don't have to. They look pretty solid to me barring injuries and assuming the younger guys work out at 3B, SS and CF.

[SoxSport]

Choo at $18M is completely sensible for the Red Sox. The number of years is the larger issue there. I have my reservations about his splits etc, but $18M is a very fair valuation for an on-base machine who can play a corner decently.

 

I'd be shocked if they signed Choo. I think they want a RHd bat in the OF. Somebody who can play RF. A role player who doesn't have to play everyday.

[seabeachfred]

I'd be shocked if they signed Choo. I think they want a RHd bat in the OF. Somebody who can play RF. A role player who doesn't have to play everyday.

 

Guittierez would seem the best choice at the moment. He hits right handed, is a good CF, can play the other two OF spots and has had experience as a regular with the Mariners and before than with the Guardians. The fact that he originally came from the dodger organization shouldn't count against him.

[marklmw]

Guittierez would seem the best choice at the moment. He hits right handed, is a good CF, can play the other two OF spots and has had experience as a regular with the Mariners and before than with the Guardians. The fact that he originally came from the dodger organization shouldn't count against him.

He would be a good pick-up imo. I would take him over Gomes because of his versatility in the OF.

[sk7326]

I'd be shocked if they signed Choo. I think they want a RHd bat in the OF. Somebody who can play RF. A role player who doesn't have to play everyday.

 

Oh I doubt he goes to Boston. But the question was whether that price was reasonable - it is.

 

Gutierrez makes sense. An elite defensive CF (or at least was before his body started to fall apart) who can probably still be a good backup across the board. I look at LF as a legitimately open job though - and if we add an OF, I'd like to add one who at least has ceiling to take that gig.

[marklmw]

Oh I doubt he goes to Boston. But the question was whether that price was reasonable - it is.

 

Gutierrez makes sense. An elite defensive CF (or at least was before his body started to fall apart) who can probably still be a good backup across the board. I look at LF as a legitimately open job though - and if we add an OF, I'd like to add one who at least has ceiling to take that gig.

 

I like it. I am sure that our FO is looking at him too.

[Behindenemylines]

Choo is going to want 7 years and at $18 mil per, the answer is a NO! He is not worth that investment for the Sox.

[SoxSport]

Geez...why do I like Vic or Bradley better than Choo? Bradley's upside is at least as good as Choo--maybe better.

[User Name]

No it isn't. And he doesn't have to be as good as Choo to be more valuable if he can play a good defensive CF.

[marklmw]

No it isn't. And he doesn't have to be as good as Choo to be more valuable if he can play a good defensive CF.

 

Your logic is flawed ... If he can play good defense than he can be better than Choo.

[Dojji]

Your logic is flawed ... If he can play good defense than he can be better than Choo.

 

Can be, sure, but that OBP Choo can sport makes it a tall order for a rookie to match that in his first 2-3 years.

[BSN07]

JBJ being as valuable or more then Choo for next season is a bit of a stretch.

[jacksonianmarch]

I guess being as valuable as Choo and Choo being worth the money are two different arguments. I doubt JBJ is a 5 WAR player in his rookie yr. But dollars per win should clearly be in JBJ's favor.

[BSN07]

I guess being as valuable as Choo and Choo being worth the money are two different arguments. I doubt JBJ is a 5 WAR player in his rookie yr. But dollars per win should clearly be in JBJ's favor.

 

Fair point Jacko

[vjcsmoke]

I guess being as valuable as Choo and Choo being worth the money are two different arguments. I doubt JBJ is a 5 WAR player in his rookie yr. But dollars per win should clearly be in JBJ's favor.

 

5 WAR for a rookie is extremely optimistic. Just for reference sake - only 33 Major Leaguer batters all last year made the 5.0 war mark and on the Red Sox only Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Shane Victorino topped or met 5 war. David Ortiz just missed the mark with a 4.4 WAR.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/sort/WARBR/order/true

 

Do you really believe JBJ will be more valuable than David Ortiz? I don't. I think Ortiz' WAR suffers a little because he's a DH and doesn't field. But still. I don't see JBJ realistically making the 5 WAR mark unless he turns into a ROY candidate and even then it would be tough.

 

In fact just check the top 40 in batter war last year and you'll see a list of a who's who of the best players in baseball. I would be thrilled but utterly surprised if JBJ turned out to be a top 40 player for us. XB maybe, but I don't expect that out of JBJ. I'd be happy with a solid rookie season and showing us the potential to grow into a starting player at the MLB level.

 

I think that most people seem to agree that Choo is worth 18m per year. The question is how long of a contract commitment would he get and are those dollars the best way the Sox can spend their money.

Edited December 15, 2013 by vjcsmoke

[User Name]

Jacko said he does not expect JBJ to break 5 WAR next year, but that on a dollar-to-win ratio, he should beat out Choo, which is a given if he's making league minimum while Choo makes around 20 mill.

[sk7326]

Key for Bradley is not whether he matches Choo's output - let me save you the bandwidth there, it's unlikely. If Choo is in the same ballpark as a hitter as he was last year (not guaranteed, but possibly), moving him from CF to a corner will help (as it improves his defensive value a lot).

 

Now can Bradley approximate Ellsbury's contribution. That is also unlikely obviously, a 31 year old vs a guy having his first serious run as a starter. But if Bradley just replicated one of his minor league seasons offensively and continue to show the defensive ability scouts laud in him - to turn the scouting reports into metrics - that is an All-Star, though more of a Bernie Williams sort of All-Star which takes a little bit more sophistication to appreciate as a baseball fan.

[Dojji]

But if Bradley just replicated one of his minor league seasons offensively

 

 

In his first year? That too is a pretty neat stretch. You're talking about a rookie putting up an .850 OPS out of centerfield as if that's a modest goal. We'll be lucky to get .750 out of him. Williams himself (the comp you used, and an interesting one) went .280/.354/.406 in his second season. that in itself is a job well done in centerfield.

Edited December 16, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

In his first year? That too is a pretty neat stretch. You're talking about a rookie putting up an .850 OPS out of centerfield as if that's a modest goal. We'll be lucky to get .750 out of him. Williams himself (the comp you used, and an interesting one) went .280/.354/.406 in his second season. that in itself is a job well done in centerfield.

 

A .354 OBP will be just fine ... I am not EXPECTING him to knock out one of his minor league seasons, but that gives you an idea of what he can do. Also it is worth noting that the O of the OPS is way way more important than the S. You get .350+ OBP from him with excellent defense and we won't miss Ellsbury that much at all.

[Dojji]

If we get a good OBP out of him that ought to mean that the position of CF is covered adequately. All comparisons to either Ellsbury or choo need to wait until we have a better idea what we're actually going to get out of Bradley.

[seabeachfred]

If we get a good OBP out of him that ought to mean that the position of CF is covered adequately. All comparisons to either Ellsbury or choo need to wait until we have a better idea what we're actually going to get out of Bradley.

 

Stealing a little of my friend Palodios' thunder I would give Bradley a full shot at CF in 2014 and if it is shown that he has real trouble hitting Big League pitching make a strong end run for Brent Gardner in the off season. He will be a free agent and has the singles and doubles bat, the speed and decent fielding ability to be a big help to us. He will be 31 by the time we can get him but still young enough to give us three or four years of solid play and by that time we should be able to come up with another good young CF not represented by Yankee Fan Boras. OTOH, if Brad has a decent season ignore this post.

[SoxSport]

I think you have to look beyond next year for Bradley--his WAR figures to increase the next few years while Choo's may remain constant or decline.