Is Shin Soo Choo worth 18m per year for the Red Sox?

[vjcsmoke]

Let's look at the numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/choosh01.shtml

 

Lifetime averages: .288 BA .389 OBP .465 SLG .854 OPS

 

Last season Choo walked 112 times and has logged 20/20 seasons in 3 of the last 5 years.

Choo fits the Red Sox philosophy of grinding out at-bats and wearing down the starting pitcher, extending the inning.

Choo's average WAR over the past 5 seasons is 4.14.

 

If the Red Sox sign Choo, they can keep Victorino at his accustomed 2 spot, and Pedroia in the 3 spot.

 

Lineup:

1 Choo

2 Victorino

3 Pedroia

4 Ortiz

5 Napoli

6 Bogaerts

7 Middlebrooks

8 Nava

9 Pyrzinski

 

I think Boras is posturing. Choo is still not as good as Ellsbury, and he's also older.

I'm not giving anybody 20m these days unless they are in their prime 25 year old, franchise player.

 

That being said, IF Choo would take a 6 year/108 million dollar deal, do you sign him on the dotted line?

[mvp 78]

No way.

[jacksonianmarch]

The guy is an OBP machine. But once again, he's a lefty and in your park, lefty power is diminished. I guess he'd be worth the money if you didn't have someone ready to take their lumps at the big league level. But with JBJ there, do you ride with the kid, or do you go all out for the vet? That's going to be a philosophical question for the GM more than anything.

[marklmw]

There are only 2 starter type players that the Sox should consider going after. Not Drew, Not Choo, Not Uncle Boo. They are Tanaka and Stanton.

[User Name]

Tanaka would probably end up being a worse investment than Choo fyi. The problem is that you have an infatuation with the guy that clearly doesn't let you see that.

[mvp 78]

There are only 2 starter type players that the Sox should consider going after. Not Drew, Not Choo, Not Uncle Boo. They are Tanaka and Stanton.

 

Yes, because there are no other players Ben could make a move for that could help improve the roster... Everyone else in the league is garbage compared to the Sox 25 man roster.

[marklmw]

Tanaka would probably end up being a worse investment than Choo fyi. The problem is that you have an infatuation with the guy that clearly doesn't let you see that.

 

Please UN ... that is your opinion and your opinion only ... you use too words that are conflicting ... 'probably' and 'fyi'

sometimes you sound so pompous.

[marklmw]

Yes, because there are no other players Ben could make a move for that could help improve the roster... Everyone else in the league is garbage compared to the Sox 25 man roster.

 

I never said that ... I am talking about starter types and high impact starter types. Of course the Sox can make minor improvements but my fear is that he are going to deal WMB and imo that would be a big mistake.

[User Name]

This is your typical response when confronted about one of your player crushes. It's not "my opinion only". There is a basis for emitting this idea. Besides the fact that you have to pay up the posting fee, the Yankees will drive up the price to the 100m + range. Who is the safest bet to live up to a 100m contract? A proven commodity like Choo with several 20/20 seasons under his belt and elite OBP skills, or a guy who hasn't thrown a single MLB pitch? Not only that, but history shows there is an adjustment period coming over from Japan, so you would essentially be punting year one in terms of overall production. I'm not advocating signing Choo. I am saying that when you say the "only" two players that the Sox should look at are Tanaka and Stanton, you are clearly wrong, because Tanaka is a bigger question mark than Choo. Sorry if that sounds "pompous" by the way.

[marklmw]

We have different philosophies when it comes to keeping, adding or trading players. You want to play prevent and I want to run up the score. I happen to think that we can win the AL East with our team as it is right now. However, I also feel that we are in the position to solidify our team for many years to come. I am not looking only at 2014 I am looking at 2015 and beyond. Players like Stanton, Kemp are buy low opportunities right now that we can take a chance on without hurting ourselves long term if they do not work out. You are just plain wrong about Tanaka ... I project him at 15+ wins next season.

[mvp 78]

The Marlins, Angels and Blie Jays tried to run up the score too.

[User Name]

We have different philosophies when it comes to keeping, adding or trading players. You want to play prevent and I want to run up the score. I happen to think that we can win the AL East with our team as it is right now. However, I also feel that we are in the position to solidify our team for many years to come. I am not looking only at 2014 I am looking at 2015 and beyond. Players like Stanton, Kemp are buy low opportunities right now that we can take a chance on without hurting ourselves long term if they do not work out. You are just plain wrong about Tanaka ... I project him at 15+ wins next season.

 

Pitcher wins are a terrible way to judge pitcher effectiveness for one. Yu Darvish was arguably the best pitcher in the Majors and won 13 games. As for being wrong about Tanaka, i very much disagree. You're clearly overvaluing him. Clearly.

 

Darvish is by far the better pitcher. How do you justify paying an inferior pitcher much more money?

[marklmw]

The Marlins, Angels and Blie Jays tried to run up the score too.

 

You are missing my point. Most FA's are in the downside of their careers and teams end up paying for their past success and not future production ... Stanton with an extension and Tanaka are two players entering their prime years. Either of these players along with Bogaerts, JBJ, WMB, Owens, Vasquez will make a solid foundation for the next 7 years.

[marklmw]

Pitcher wins are a terrible way to judge pitcher effectiveness for one. Yu Darvish was arguably the best pitcher in the Majors and won 13 games. As for being wrong about Tanaka, i very much disagree. You're clearly overvaluing him. Clearly.

 

Darvish is by far the better pitcher. How do you justify paying an inferior pitcher much more money?

 

I am projecting the 15W's while wearing a Sox or Yankees uniform. Your argument about pay is flawed once again ... the Darvish contract was a steal ... there are many players earning more than they are worth and many that are earning far less than they are worth. 100M contract + 20M posting fee = 120M / 7 = 17M AVV ... for a number 2ish type pitcher in his prime it is not unreasonable.

[Emmz]

I love guys who have significantly better OBP than BA, but 18M is a lot of money.

[Palodios]

Of all the big-money free agents, Choo is the guy I'd want. .390 OBP FOR HIS CAREER, .425 this year, with 20 SB speed. How many players out there have a .400+ OBP with speed? Most of the guys that get on base that frequently are big bats that are pitched around and clog the basepaths. He's probably best suited for LF, but he can spot in CF, and could survive in RF for a season. He has bad splits, but still manages to get on base consistently. He's been healthy, and isn't that old.

 

I also think he is significantly better than the players in the 2014 free agent class, a year where the Red Sox are going to shave 16 million off from Lackey... and don't even lose him on the roster.

[SoxSport]

If you believe Cherington, they are not about to make a big splash like Choo. Not the type of contract they want at this point. Plus it would change their outfield picture--pushing Bradley to the bench. And probably send them over the cap. They are probably looking for cheaper role options for the OF and SS. I think they'll play a waiting game, and see who hasn't been signed--maybe get a bargain for short change.

I see the Tigers signed Davis for 2 yrs. The type of platoon player that might fit--but I heard they didn't like his hitting against RHP? Doesn't make much sense to me if they want a platoon guy. Same situation for Drew. They hope he won't get a multi year. Still a chance Yankees will bite for him. That would send them another draft choice from NY--which number? They are giving away quite a few draft picks trying to buy their way back into contention. Amazing how the Red Sox signed so many guys last year on short term deals w/o giving up draft picks. And most of them worked out.

[marklmw]

Choo will be 32 mid season 2004 ... everyone brings up Ellsburys legs going but how about Choo's? Seems odd to me that the Yankees would sign Beltran and not Choo. Choo is a fine player and he is very consistent and he probably will be so for the next 3 years ... after that all bets are off.

[User Name]

The Sox don't need Choo, just like they don't need Tanaka or Stanton.

[marklmw]

Tanaka is the best available FA ... Choo is a close # 2. Who can help Boston the most ... I argue that it is Tanaka as I have a lot of faith in Bill James predictions for JBJ. Signing Tanaka will make Peavy and Dempster and their contracts expendable ... Boston can add prospects at the same time as there will always be teams looking for proven innings type guys. If we sign Choo we add to our payroll, If we add Tanaka we do not necessarily add to our payroll.

[mvp 78]

I love guys who have significantly better OBP, but 18M is a lot of money.

 

This is basically the entire argument for me.

[mvp 78]

Is he worth $16M more than Nava (who has similar OBP skills and glove)? The only difference there is SB. Why pay $16M for 20 SB?

[marklmw]

The Sox don't need Choo, just like they don't need Tanaka or Stanton.

I agree with you ... we are ready to go in 2014 with only a few minor additions. Utility Infielder being one.

The key word here is 'need' and for 2014 you are correct. But ... an opportunity may present itself so that we can improve our team for 2014 and beyond. I like the idea of a Lester - Tanaka for the next 6 years. Buchholz is a great talent but more of a question mark than Tanaka imo.

[marklmw]

Is he worth $16M more than Nava (who has similar OBP skills and glove)? The only difference there is SB. Why pay $16M for 20 SB?

 

Seems like people are panicked about losing Ellsbury's SB's ... how many of Ellsbury's SB's made the difference between a win and a loss? Cannot be that many otherwise is WAR would around 12.

[Orange Juiced]

Pitcher wins are a terrible way to judge pitcher effectiveness for one. Yu Darvish was arguably the best pitcher in the Majors and won 13 games. As for being wrong about Tanaka, i very much disagree. You're clearly overvaluing him. Clearly.

 

Darvish is by far the better pitcher. How do you justify paying an inferior pitcher much more money?

 

With the low posting fee, it's almost a certainty that the next wave of guys coming over from Japan will make more than Darvish.

 

And I think the Sox should be in on him. By all accounts, he's very good. He may not be Darvish-good, but he should be #2-#3 caliber SP good. And all it will cost is money - no draft picks, no prospects. It's not every day that you can instantly add a guy of this caliber at his age. Then they can trade even a subsidized Peavy and/or Dempster for prospects. Gives them more ammo to make a major move if they want to do that.

 

EDIT: As for Choo, I like him and think he'd be good here, but not at $18 million.

[mvp 78]

To me, it seems like the low posting fee will prevent teams from agreeing to let top Japanese players out of their contracts.

[User Name]

With the low posting fee, it's almost a certainty that the next wave of guys coming over from Japan will make more than Darvish.

 

And I think the Sox should be in on him. By all accounts, he's very good. He may not be Darvish-good, but he should be #2-#3 caliber SP good. And all it will cost is money - no draft picks, no prospects. It's not every day that you can instantly add a guy of this caliber at his age. Then they can trade even a subsidized Peavy and/or Dempster for prospects. Gives them more ammo to make a major move if they want to do that.

 

EDIT: As for Choo, I like him and think he'd be good here, but not at $18 million.

 

What is his "caliber"? Dude hasn't thrown a single MLB pitch. A #2 ceiling isn't worth 20 million a year, even in this market.

[Spudboy]

Choo will command a multi-year contract with high AAV. At his age and position, no thanks.

[Orange Juiced]

What is his "caliber"? Dude hasn't thrown a single MLB pitch. A #2 ceiling isn't worth 20 million a year, even in this market.

 

Right. I wouldn't pay Tanaka $20 million a year, no. But I'd definitely be in on the posting fee.

[iortiz]

Don't worry… niether of them is coming to Boston. On the other hand I have read that Tanaka is a stud and that he will not have problems to succeed at MLB level. Who the hell knows... we just have to wait and see, if he is something between Ryu and Darvish call it deal.