Hot Stove 2013-2014

[Palodios]

30-37, and considering what the rest of the market looks like, the salary explosion, the Boras factor and the stupidity of GMs, not only will he get 200 mill (or close to it) but several teams will line up to bid for his services, including the typical Boras mystery team.

 

Teams will have Max from ages 30.8 - 38 years old during an 8 year contract. The only teams who would give Max an 8 year deal are the Dodgers and Yankees -- which is why I stress that there are no guarantees.

 

The Yankees will get Arod's salary back, have gigantic holes in their infield and bullpen. The Dodgers already have a 150 and 300 million dollar starter, plus they need to resign Hanley. Other teams will ask themselves if Scherzer is really worth 100 million dollars more than Masterson, 120 million more than Ervin Santana, 50 million more than James Shields or 40 more than Lester.

[User Name]

Teams will have Max from ages 30.8 - 38 years old during an 8 year contract. The only teams who would give Max an 8 year deal are the Dodgers and Yankees -- which is why I stress that there are no guarantees.

 

The Yankees will get Arod's salary back, have gigantic holes in their infield and bullpen. The Dodgers already have a 150 and 300 million dollar starter, plus they need to resign Hanley. Other teams will ask themselves if Scherzer is really worth 100 million dollars more than Masterson, 120 million more than Ervin Santana, 50 million more than James Shields or 40 more than Lester.

 

And then he'll get his money. You're seriously undervaluing the stupidity of GM's here. You're making an argument that completely ignores the way the market is working right now. Ubaldo Jimenez got 50 million for a good half-season after years of mediocrity.

[Palodios]

And then he'll get his money. You're seriously undervaluing the stupidity of GM's here. You're making an argument that completely ignores the way the market is working right now. Ubaldo Jimenez got 50 million for a good half-season after years of mediocrity.

 

I fully believe in the stupidity of owners, but I've given several comparables to players that are closer to Scherzer's class that have made significantly less money than you are arguing.

 

If Zack Greinke is a pitcher with extremely similar numbers. He was a year and a half younger with significantly higher innings per game -- was signed to a 147 million dollar contract by the richest team in the majors. Subtract a year from the contract to account for age, and you're looking at a 125 million dollar for Scherzer after 2012. With a great year, he's looking at maybe 160, but baseball inflation doesn't increase player value 35% every year.

Edited March 24, 2014 by Palodios

[rjortiz]

I fully believe in the stupidity of GMs, but I've given several comparables to players that are closer to Scherzer's class that have made significantly less money than you are arguing.

 

If Zack Greinke is a pitcher with extremely similar numbers. He was a year and a half younger with significantly higher innings per game -- was signed to a 147 million dollar contract by the richest team in the majors. Subtract a year from the contract to account for age, and you're looking at a 125 million dollar for Scherzer after 2012. With a great year, he's looking at maybe 160, but baseball inflation doesn't increase player value 35% every year.

 

Grienke signed three years before Scherzer will. Cost per win is up from about $5 million to $7 million. Also, everyone in this thread is speculating seven or eight years. You've arbitrarily subtracted a year, and how did you come up with an annual 35% inflation?

[rjortiz]

And then he'll get his money. You're seriously undervaluing the stupidity of GM's here. You're making an argument that completely ignores the way the market is working right now. Ubaldo Jimenez got 50 million for a good half-season after years of mediocrity.

 

Not even that stupid. If he's signing for $28 million in 2015, he's a bit of a bargain if he's a 5 win pitcher. It seems the standard MO of baseball contracts is to get value in the first years, but pay more for the downside.

[Palodios]

Grienke signed three years before Scherzer will. Cost per win is up from about $5 million to $7 million. Also, everyone in this thread is speculating seven or eight years. You've arbitrarily subtracted a year, and how did you come up with an annual 35% inflation?

 

Greinke signed after 2012. Scherzer will sign after 2014. Can you not count?

 

I didn't aribitrarily subtract a year. Teams factor in age when determining long term contracts -- the difference in 1.5 years at signing time is significant. Had Greinke been older, his contract would likely have been shorter.

Edited March 24, 2014 by Palodios

[User Name]

I fully believe in the stupidity of owners, but I've given several comparables to players that are closer to Scherzer's class that have made significantly less money than you are arguing.

 

If Zack Greinke is a pitcher with extremely similar numbers. He was a year and a half younger with significantly higher innings per game -- was signed to a 147 million dollar contract by the richest team in the majors. Subtract a year from the contract to account for age, and you're looking at a 125 million dollar for Scherzer after 2012. With a great year, he's looking at maybe 160, but baseball inflation doesn't increase player value 35% every year.

 

While absolutely disregarding context (Scherzer will be the best pitcher in the open marker) market inflation (which is a factor considering Tanaka signed for 155 million without throwing a pitch in the US and the Ubaldo, et al contracts), the fact that Boras is his agent and the one stupid owner rule. He will make far more money than Greinke unless something catastrophic happens during the 2014 season. You are trying to apply logic to something that is naturally illogical.

[Palodios]

While absolutely disregarding context (Scherzer will be the best pitcher in the open marker) market inflation (which is a factor considering Tanaka signed for 155 million without throwing a pitch in the US and the Ubaldo, et al contracts), the fact that Boras is his agent and the one stupid owner rule. He will make far more money than Greinke unless something catastrophic happens during the 2014 season. You are trying to apply logic to something that is naturally illogical.

 

Clayton Kershaw 215 million

Justin Verlander 180 million

Felix Hernandez 175 million

CC Sabathia 161 million

Greinke 147 million

Cole Hamels 141 million

Johan Santana 137 million.

Matt Cain 127 million

 

All of these guys were big names, annual CY Young contenders, and/or playoff studs, that provided significant innings. Not only is Scherzer nowhere near as consistent, but he is also one of the ugliest players in baseball. The one dumb owner theory is important in all free agent signings, but dumb owners like sex appeal, and big names. Without another CY Young season or strong playoff push, I see absolutely no reason why he's worth as much as Felix, nevermind Kershaw.

[redsoxrules]

He's not worth at this moment but if he backs up last season with another gem this year he'll be worth it

 

Also, Sherzer was quite dominant in the playoffs last year.

He's basically the reason the Tigers season was extended when he came into that game against the A's with the bases juiced and no one out and got out of it, if not the A's would have been facing the Red Sox

Edited March 24, 2014 by redsoxrules

[Bellhorn04]

Clayton Kershaw 215 million

Justin Verlander 180 million

Felix Hernandez 175 million

CC Sabathia 161 million

Greinke 147 million

Cole Hamels 141 million

Johan Santana 137 million.

Matt Cain 127 million

 

All of these guys were big names, annual CY Young contenders, and/or playoff studs, that provided significant innings. Not only is Scherzer nowhere near as consistent, but he is also one of the ugliest players in baseball. The one dumb owner theory is important in all free agent signings, but dumb owners like sex appeal, and big names. Without another CY Young season or strong playoff push, I see absolutely no reason why he's worth as much as Felix, nevermind Kershaw.

 

The inflation rate is outrageous right now due to the short supply of free agent pitching and the surplus of money out there.

[User Name]

The inflation rate is outrageous right now due to the short supply of free agent pitching and the surplus of money out there.

 

It's really this simple.

[a700hitter]

Clayton Kershaw 215 million

Justin Verlander 180 million

Felix Hernandez 175 million

CC Sabathia 161 million

Greinke 147 million

Cole Hamels 141 million

Johan Santana 137 million.

Matt Cain 127 million

 

All of these guys were big names, annual CY Young contenders, and/or playoff studs, that provided significant innings. Not only is Scherzer nowhere near as consistent, but he is also one of the ugliest players in baseball. The one dumb owner theory is important in all free agent signings, but dumb owners like sex appeal, and big names. Without another CY Young season or strong playoff push, I see absolutely no reason why he's worth as much as Felix, nevermind Kershaw.

Of the pitchers in the list only Greinke and Johan left their team, and only one since 2008. The trend has been for teams to lock these guys down and keep them from leaving.

[Palodios]

Sabathia too.

[Palodios]

He's not worth at this moment but if he backs up last season with another gem this year he'll be worth it

 

Also, Sherzer was quite dominant in the playoffs last year.

He's basically the reason the Tigers season was extended when he came into that game against the A's with the bases juiced and no one out and got out of it, if not the A's would have been facing the Red Sox

 

We're arguing a scenario where Scherzer doesn't put up ace numbers next year. The initial debate was spurred by his .250 BABP, and low HR/FB rates in 2013.

[rjortiz]

We're arguing a scenario where Scherzer doesn't put up ace numbers next year. The initial debate was spurred by his .250 BABP, and low HR/FB rates in 2013.

 

He puts up a 4.6 WAR like he did in 2012, and he's still getting a massive contract. That's three straight years of ace level pitching.

[a700hitter]

Sabathia too.

More recently, Sabathia opted out of his Yankee contract and declared free agency and the re-signed him. He didn't leave the Guardians. They traded him to the Brewers, and that was back in 2008. Greinke also was also traded to the Brewers before he hit FA, Edited March 24, 2014 by a700hitter

[Spudboy]

This is a market that's yielding 100+ million contracts to slightly above average pitchers left and right. Scherzer is coming off a good season then a great one at 28 years old, with A++ stuff and a clean bill of health. A similar year to 2013 sends him above the 200 million threshold, while one similar to 2012 still has him hovering above 120 mill. It makes all the sense in the world to wait the market out.

 

Of course he gambles that he regresses or sustains an injury and has to accept a much lower number. The 6/144 just seams like a lot to turn down to most of us because we never come close to seeing that kind of money.

 

Alas, "Greed is good".

[User Name]

Boras clients tend to make these gambles, and they end up on the winning side more often than not.

[Palodios]

Scott Boras apparently had Scherzer buy an insurance policy on his own health. Apparently there was never any hope of the Tigers signing him, he was going to free agency all along.

[rjortiz]

I fully believe in the stupidity of owners, but I've given several comparables to players that are closer to Scherzer's class that have made significantly less money than you are arguing.

 

It's a different market than it was when those pitchers signed.

 

If Zack Greinke is a pitcher with extremely similar numbers. He was a year and a half younger with significantly higher innings per game -- was signed to a 147 million dollar contract by the richest team in the majors. Subtract a year from the contract to account for age, and you're looking at a 125 million dollar for Scherzer after 2012. With a great year, he's looking at maybe 160, but baseball inflation doesn't increase player value 35% every year.

 

The Tigers reportedly offered 6/144 for Scherzer, so they agree with you. Scherzer wants eight, so if he agreed on the AAV, he's looking at 8/192. I think that's where the disconnect is in this thread. We are arguing about pitchers who signed for different contract lengths, and in different years. If Scherzer signs for 6 years, he'll be around the Greinke total. BaseballReference has Greinke at 6/159. However, UN and I both think that Scherzer is getting more than six years. Because of that, and a slightly higher AAV, he's going to make more than the Grienke total.

 

You have brought up Verlander, Kershaw, and Hernandez repeatedly in this thread. The problem with that argument is that Verlander and Hernandez were not free agents. They were both under contract when they signed their extensions. Verlander and Hernandez had signed previous extensions, which locked them up throughout 2013 and 2014. They are getting less in those two years, than they would have on the open market. They also only had one team that offered a contract. If they waited until 2014, they would have been in line for over $200 million. As for Kershaw, his 2014 is under team control. He's making $22 million in 2014, which is far less than the AAV during the rest of his contract. He also only had one bidder. If he's still pitching at this level in 2018, he's going to opt out, and he's going to make more than the $215 million provided he signs for another 7 years.

 

As for the rest, Santana signed in 2008, Sabathia in 2009, Hamels in 2012, and Cain in 2012. Cain's 2012 season was part of a previous extension, which brought his value down. The market has obviously changed since then, which really makes these comparisons irrelevant.

Edited March 26, 2014 by rjortiz

[Divinity]

Tigers have extended Cabrera to 10/300 deal

[Bellhorn04]

Tigers have extended Cabrera to 10/300 deal

 

The extension itself is 8 years 248 million for an AAV of 31 million, the new record.

 

Wow. He deserves to make the most but again it's just mind-boggling how much money these teams have and how much risk they're taking on.

 

Miggy had some health issues late last year.

[rjortiz]

The extension itself is 8 years 248 million for an AAV of 31 million, the new record.

 

Wow. He deserves to make the most but again it's just mind-boggling how much money these teams have and how much risk they're taking on.

 

Miggy had some health issues late last year.

 

Detroit is banking on getting a massive TV contract like other MLB teams. They better hope that the bubble is still inflated when they negotiate their next contract. I know the Astros and Padres aren't huge draws, but the fact that cable and satellite providers balked at paying the fee to carry their games is pretty alarming.

Edited March 28, 2014 by rjortiz

[Palodios]

Detroit had two more years of control here. What were they afraid of exactly? If Miggy went to free agency for his age 33 season and beyond, did they really think someone was going to outbid that number? It sounds like they had money to blow, and Scherzer wasn't having it.

[East Bay Evans]

Detroit had two more years of control here. What were they afraid of exactly?

Themselves, evidently. Particularly bizarre given Cabrera's interest in staying with Detroit. Edited March 28, 2014 by East Bay Evans

[rjortiz]

The Tigers need to take some lessons from the Pirates. Quietly inked Marte to a ridiculously team friendly deal.

[Spudboy]

Was it Miggy that had the problem with booze and spousal abuse a few years ago?

[Bellhorn04]

Was it Miggy that had the problem with booze and spousal abuse a few years ago?

 

Yes, he's had a few alcohol-related incidents, including a DUI in 2011.

[Bellhorn04]

Detroit is banking on getting a massive TV contract like other MLB teams. They better hope that the bubble is still inflated when they negotiate their next contract. I know the Astros and Padres aren't huge draws, but the fact that cable and satellite providers balked at paying the fee to carry their games is pretty alarming.

 

The bubble has to burst at some point. It always does.

[BSN07]

Another 10+ year deal for a guy leaving his prime lol These deals are ridiculous. I guess if he goes down hill LAD and NYY will be lining up to take him off Detroits hands. At least their DH spot is open for him.

 

Mike Trout must be bouncing off the walls with excitment, he's probably looking at 10 yrs 300M as the floor now if he puts together another season this year like his last 2. While LAA FO are all sitting in dark corners crying themselves to sleep