2014 Roster Projections

[Palodios]

The scary number with Middlebrooks is his K to BB ratio. It's about 5 to 1. That is horrendous. Trumbo's is also terrible but it did improve somewhat in 2013.

 

By all means, I intended to show that Middlebrooks is similar to Trumbo in many ways... good and bad. Lots of power, lots of strikeouts, poor OBP. We may be saying things like "If only he could fix that hole in his swing" for years, but the power is hard to argue, especially because he's at 3B, and not 1B.

[marklmw]

Worried about Xander at Shortstop for his longterm health. It seems like larger Shortstops have trouble staying on the field. (Tulo,Hanley,Nomar, A-rod) and the list goes on and on. SS just makes the body break down, especially for larger players.

 

There are too many other players on our team right now to worry about over injuries ... Papi, Nap's, Victorino, Buchholz come to mind.

[marklmw]

By all means, I intended to show that Middlebrooks is similar to Trumbo in many ways... good and bad. Lots of power, lots of strikeouts, poor OBP. We may be saying things like "If only he could fix that hole in his swing" for years, but the power is hard to argue, especially because he's at 3B, and not 1B.

 

but you do realize that a strikeout is just another out.

[marklmw]

By all means, I intended to show that Middlebrooks is similar to Trumbo in many ways... good and bad. Lots of power, lots of strikeouts, poor OBP. We may be saying things like "If only he could fix that hole in his swing" for years, but the power is hard to argue, especially because he's at 3B, and not 1B.

 

The hole you are talking about is easy enough to identify ... the entire right side of the plate plus 6 inches off the plate

[Palodios]

but you do realize that a strikeout is just another out.

 

When a player makes as little contact as those two guys do, and have sub .300 OBPs, that's the problem.

[marklmw]

When a player makes as little contact as those two guys do, and have sub .300 OBPs, that's the problem.

 

I do not think WMB's problems are physical ... they are all mental. Just waiting to see if he can figure things out ... once he starts working the counts in his favor a lot can change. I would imagine that he was pressing like crazy last season which only makes matters worse. Big league catchers know this.

[dupree]

WMB will be better this year. I do agree he needs to stand closer to the plate and further up in the box towards the pitcher so to hit the outside breaking ball. He stayed in Boston after the season to work with the training staff to work on his overall game. He realizes this is his year to sink or swim and he is gonna put in the work to swim. He coulda of easily went back to texas and been home with his cheerleader girlfriend and not focused on baseball but he stayed in beantown to show the FO and his teammates hes committed to being the 3rd baseman for 2014.

I hope he makes all the critics eat their words.

[marklmw]

WMB will be better this year. I do agree he needs to stand closer to the plate and further up in the box towards the pitcher so to hit the outside breaking ball. He stayed in Boston after the season to work with the training staff to work on his overall game. He realizes this is his year to sink or swim and he is gonna put in the work to swim. He coulda of easily went back to texas and been home with his cheerleader girlfriend and not focused on baseball but he stayed in beantown to show the FO and his teammates hes committed to being the 3rd baseman for 2014.

I hope he makes all the critics eat their words.

I would hope that he watches the tapes of him striking out and taking notice of the pitch and location. Don't you think that his cheerleader girlfriend will come to Boston ... I do not know anything about her ... is she a professional cheerleader? maybe for the Cowboys or Texans.

[mvp 78]

I thought he broke up with that chick. Who really cares if the #8 hitter has a hole in his swing but hits 30 hrs? Not me. He plays good defense and is a fine placeholder for Cecchini if he doesn't "figure it out."

 

Even if he doesn't "figure it out," he's still good enough to start on other MLB rosters.

[dupree]

I dont know if he broke up with her or not. She was a Cowboys cheerleader tho.

[mvp 78]

I dont know if he broke up with her or not. She was a Cowboys cheerleader tho.

 

"Middlebrooks was engaged to Ann Lux, a former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader, however they broke up in August 2012." - Wikipedia

[dupree]

Didnt know they broke up. But now i do. Thank you mvp

[EXman369]

That theory makes very little sense. Guys like Jeter, Ripken, Escobar and Hardy are all bigger guys who've played SS for significant periods of time without significant position-related issues. Xander isn't even that big, since he's tall, but not heavy. The only reason there have been doubts about his SS play is range.

 

But one would think that he is going to gain weight since he is only 21 which will in fact inhibit his range event more. at 6'3 185 theres not doubt his frame could fill out at around 215 in two to three years

[User Name]

He could also fill out a 200, which is Jeter's weight. If he gets too big, they can move him off then, like the Yankees did when they acquired A-Rod.

[sk7326]

I think the size is an uphill thing for Bogaerts - but he showed enough the last year and change for scouts to have changed their tune from "surefire 3B" to "yeah, he could stay at SS for a while". That is the entire source of the hype.

 

Middlebrooks will never be an on-base machine. But he also is a superior athlete to say, Napoli, and could offer a lot more in terms of defense and versatility. He showed he could at least fake 2B, and I'd have no problem giving an athlete of his caliber turns in a corner OF position. If he concentrates on becoming a really good defensive 3B (which he isn't yet, but clearly able to), the total package along with the raw power can make up for low OBPs. The comparison I always use is Josh Reddick. Reddick does so many good things that his OBP can be low but acceptable enough to access all the good stuff. Last couple of years, Reddick has been OBP enough to be a solid starter. Can Middlebrooks get to that level (which would still be below average)? I think he can.

[User Name]

Reddick had OBP's of .305 and .307 the last two seasons. That borders on atrocious.

[sk7326]

Reddick had OBP's of .305 and .307 the last two seasons. That borders on atrocious.

 

Indeed it does - but he also was a 3-4 win player (pick your flavor of WAR) during those time frames too. Low OBPs don't fill me with joy, but they are not death sentences either, especially when you have a guy with a lot of athletic ability.

[User Name]

Indeed it does - but he also was a 3-4 win player (pick your flavor of WAR) during those time frames too. Low OBPs don't fill me with joy, but they are not death sentences either, especially when you have a guy with a lot of athletic ability.

 

He was a 4 win player in 2012, but didn't sniff 3 in 2013. Injuries had a lot to do with it, but his inability to get on base harms him here as well. A guy with on-base skills can still produce (by virtue of getting on base) even if not 100% physically.

[marklmw]

Has WAR been accepted as the new standard? I happen to be a big OPB and OPS guy.

[sk7326]

He was a 4 win player in 2012, but didn't sniff 3 in 2013. Injuries had a lot to do with it, but his inability to get on base harms him here as well. A guy with on-base skills can still produce (by virtue of getting on base) even if not 100% physically.

 

Fangraphs 4.5/2.7

BB 4.8/2.6

 

Is 2.6/2.7 "sniffing" 3? Depends on your level of charity. Considering the Sox got 2.8 out of the LF pu-pu platter (and we were happy enough with it) the numbers are not too bad. The OBP skills are weak - it's why we traded him - but they improved a little in Oakland (and in a tougher hitter's environment) and made him into a useful player. The OBP skills for Middlebrooks are suspect - but it doesn't mean that he can't be an above average to pretty good 3B. Reddick's rise to a useful everyday player is solid inspiration therein. Reddick has the athletic tools to overcome that part of his game with other stuff - and Middlebrooks athletically offers quite a bit of that.

[sk7326]

Has WAR been accepted as the new standard? I happen to be a big OPB and OPS guy.

 

It's all part of the soup ... WAR incorporates at least the best attempts in the industry to value the rest of baseball aside from hitting stats (let alone those awful context dependent ones)). No single stat is "standard", but WAR did a nice job capturing just how fantastic a season Victorino had in a way that the ones you cite would have completely missed (for instance).

[User Name]

Fangraphs 4.5/2.7

BB 4.8/2.6

 

Is 2.6/2.7 "sniffing" 3? Depends on your level of charity. Considering the Sox got 2.8 out of the LF pu-pu platter (and we were happy enough with it) the numbers are not too bad. The OBP skills are weak - it's why we traded him - but they improved a little in Oakland (and in a tougher hitter's environment) and made him into a useful player. The OBP skills for Middlebrooks are suspect - but it doesn't mean that he can't be an above average to pretty good 3B. Reddick's rise to a useful everyday player is solid inspiration therein. Reddick has the athletic tools to overcome that part of his game with other stuff - and Middlebrooks athletically offers quite a bit of that.

 

The point here is that Reddick is not a good comp. WMB could improve enough to hit league-average OBP levels. Reddick has never even flashed that ability. Also, you're being a bit unfair here, since Reddick plays RF in Oakland, which doesn't take such a big positional value hit WAR-wise as LF. Gotta compare apples to apples here if you want to make your point.

[marklmw]

The point here is that Reddick is not a good comp. WMB could improve enough to hit league-average OBP levels. Reddick has never even flashed that ability. Also, you're being a bit unfair here, since Reddick plays RF in Oakland, which doesn't take such a big positional value hit WAR-wise as LF. Gotta compare apples to apples here if you want to make your point.

What is your thoughts on WMB for 2014?

[win red sox]

What is your thoughts on WMB for 2014?

 

I know this wasn't for me, but i wanted to answer it anyway.

 

270/325/550

 

I think his health issues are behind him, plus he's been in Boston working out with the Red Sox training staff.

[Bellhorn04]

I know this wasn't for me, but i wanted to answer it anyway.

 

270/325/550

 

 

Extremely optimistic. A 550 SLG would have been 5th in the AL this year and an 875 OPS would have been 10th.

[win red sox]

Extremely optimistic. A 550 SLG would have been 5th in the AL this year and an 875 OPS would have been 10th.

 

The tools are there, hopefully he will be healthy, probaly start in the bottom of the order, and plus im an optimist.

[sk7326]

The point here is that Reddick is not a good comp. WMB could improve enough to hit league-average OBP levels. Reddick has never even flashed that ability. Also, you're being a bit unfair here, since Reddick plays RF in Oakland, which doesn't take such a big positional value hit WAR-wise as LF. Gotta compare apples to apples here if you want to make your point.

 

Hot start in 2012 which led to a .325 OBP - right on league average in his rookie campaign. Burden is on him to show he can get there. But the athletic ability and light tower power are there. Reason Trumbo is a poor player is not the low OBP - it is the low OBP combined with having no other baseball skills..

 

I like Middlebrooks - a good defensive 3B with light tower power and below average on-base skills ... that is a legit starter. I'd want to get a real guy if you're going to move him. There are limitations, and there are strengths, and there is a lot of raw potential which come with the sort of development background he had.

 

If he can get to .315-.325 sort of OBP - right around average, shade below and yes, better than Reddick - he can be a very valuable guy,

[rorschach]

I'd like too see the FO give WMB one more year to prove himself before they go and try to trade him. I still see that power hitting star in him that should breakout at any time, if he can remain healthy throughout the upcoming season then this should be it.

 

Honestly I just hate the idea of trading such a potential awesome power bat away, for a average pitching prospect, WMB is more valuable than that imo.

[Bellhorn04]

rorschach, you need a small change in your sig line - it's 3 WS in 10 years not 9.

[a700hitter]

Ryan Kalish "is in the final stages" of signing with a new team, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. Kalish was non-tendered by the Red Sox earlier this month. The outfielder missed the entire 2013 season recovering from shoulder and neck surgeries.

A busted prospect-- literally