2014 Roster Projections

[User Name]

Hey, isn't this the best off-season in years for Red Sox fans? Yeah! Enjoy it.

 

Definitely a better idea than whining about insignificant s*** in the middle of Novermber. True that.

[User Name]

farther than their brutally devastated rotation should have allowed?

 

Anyone who was paying attention in 2006 knew what the problem was. Anyone looking back at the stats at baseball reference for the 2006 Sox knows what the problem was. With the bloody murder of injuries, underperformance, and Jon Lester's lymphoma, it's a miracle that roster won 85 games even with Ortiz doing his thing all year.

 

There's a reason we took a chance on Matsuzaka the following offseason. Heck that was the year that made moving Julian Tavarez to the Rotation look like a good idea. (in fairness, the move wasn't a complete disaster, Tavarez did a half decent job of eating innings until the workload he wasn't conditioned for caught up with him, and by then Lester was back)

 

I look back on that year and can't help but think how far we've come.

 

Isn't that the whole point of my post? What exactly are you trying to imply here then?

[mvp 78]

I think my obsession with closers is because of the history of the Red Sox. So many of those epic defeats of the Sox, we blew the lead late in the game. 1975 Game 7, 1978 playoff game, 1986 Game 6, 2003 Game 7.

 

Mike Torrez wasn't the closer in 78. Pedro wasn't the closer in 03.

[Bellhorn04]

Mike Torrez wasn't the closer in 78. Pedro wasn't the closer in 03.

 

True, but...in 1978, after Torrez exited with the score 3-2 Yankees, Bob Stanley gave up an RBI double to Munson and a home run to Reggie, and we ended up losing 5-4. And if Grady had a lights-out closer he likely would have removed Pedro for him.

[marklmw]

True, but...in 1978, after Torrez exited with the score 3-2 Yankees, Bob Stanley gave up an RBI double to Munson and a home run to Reggie, and we ended up losing 5-4. And if Grady had a lights-out closer he likely would have removed Pedro for him.

 

Would it not be awesome if Hoji were 25? ... I will be excited if we can get one more productive season from him. The way he throws strikes I see no reason why not. Mariano saved games for NY for the last 16 of 17 seasons. Who stays with one team for 17 seasons ... I began this discussion by bringing up how blessed NY has been for the past 16 of 17 seasons. How productive and durable Mariano has been ... and loyal too to the club. Red Sox History would be much different if we had a similar player as Mariano ... he had hitters and great starting pitchers but never a Mariano.

[mvp 78]

True, but...in 1978, after Torrez exited with the score 3-2 Yankees, Bob Stanley gave up an RBI double to Munson and a home run to Reggie, and we ended up losing 5-4. And if Grady had a lights-out closer he likely would have removed Pedro for him.

 

It wasn't the 9th inning. A lights out closer wouldn't have relieved Pedro at that point.

[User Name]

Would it not be awesome if Hoji were 25? ... I will be excited if we can get one more productive season from him. The way he throws strikes I see no reason why not. Mariano saved games for NY for the last 16 of 17 seasons. Who stays with one team for 17 seasons ... I began this discussion by bringing up how blessed NY has been for the past 16 of 17 seasons. How productive and durable Mariano has been ... and loyal too to the club. Red Sox History would be much different if we had a similar player as Mariano ... he had hitters and great starting pitchers but never a Mariano.

 

Hoji?

 

But anyways, a good closer is an important part of a championship club, but not one of the main parts (he's just part of one of the main parts, which is a good BP) and they are definitely volatile and replaceable.

[Bellhorn04]

It wasn't the 9th inning. A lights out closer wouldn't have relieved Pedro at that point.

 

Depends on the closer. Many closers have registered 5-out saves, including Foulke and Papelbon. Uehara even did it this year.

[VA Sox Fan]

True, but...in 1978, after Torrez exited with the score 3-2 Yankees, Bob Stanley gave up an RBI double to Munson and a home run to Reggie, and we ended up losing 5-4. And if Grady had a lights-out closer he likely would have removed Pedro for him.

 

I always thought Grady should have stuck with the Embree, Timlin, Williamson combination that had worked fairly well.

[Palodios]

Byrd, Dejesus, Young all off the market. The only other players who might work in CF/RF for the Sox are Ellsbury, Granderson, Choo. Maybe the FO are going to go into next year with Bradley? Either that, or they're drooling at Choo's OBP.

 

Sign Choo, put him in RF for a few months to a year, Vic to CF. When Bradley is ready, push Choo to LF, Vic to RF, Bradley to CF? Seems like a lot of moving pieces, but it could work.

[dupree]

Byrd, Dejesus, Young all off the market. The only other players who might work in CF/RF for the Sox are Ellsbury, Granderson, Choo. Maybe the FO are going to go into next year with Bradley? Either that, or they're drooling at Choo's OBP.

 

Sign Choo, put him in RF for a few months to a year, Vic to CF. When Bradley is ready, push Choo to LF, Vic to RF, Bradley to CF? Seems like a lot of moving pieces, but it could work.

Choo is gonna cost just as much as Ells why not just sign Ells instead of Choo. I like Ells far better than Choo. Also unless the Sox go over the luxury tax limit or clear some payroll they dont have the money for either Choo or Ells. 1b, C, and a relief pitcher are on the list of prioritizes too. And all the be filled with 25million. They have to clear payroll with one of their starting pitchers moving.

[jung]

I honestly think it more likely that they do in fact start the year with Bradley in CF than they bring Choo in here. I also think they will be reluctant to move Vic to CF. Vic is already showing signs of aging. Moving him to CF will weaken the outfield defense further and tax him more.

 

This team just won a WS. While I don't expect that means they simply take a year off I also don't expect them to dance around that much trying to fill slots when they do have players in the system within a year of being fully ready. I just think it more likely that they would gamble on JBJ for half a year before they would try to fill the slot from outside the organization with a costly option for half a year.

 

Funny how people were clambering for JBJ at the start of last year and now we want to hold him down on the farm a year later.

[sk7326]

Young to Mets made sense, read Sox were in on him - but at the end of the day a guy like him needs reps. I liked him as a backup with upside, but I am sure he thinks he needs some guarantee of PAs to rebuild his market value.

 

Maybe the next option is a Rajai Davis - alternatively just keep things in house. Beltran at a 3-year hitch is hard to swallow as a matter of business case.

[marklmw]

I honestly think it more likely that they do in fact start the year with Bradley in CF than they bring Choo in here. I also think they will be reluctant to move Vic to CF. Vic is already showing signs of aging. Moving him to CF will weaken the outfield defense further and tax him more.

 

This team just won a WS. While I don't expect that means they simply take a year off I also don't expect them to dance around that much trying to fill slots when they do have players in the system within a year of being fully ready. I just think it more likely that they would gamble on JBJ for half a year before they would try to fill the slot from outside the organization with a costly option for half a year.

 

Funny how people were clambering for JBJ at the start of last year and now we want to hold him down on the farm a year later.

Jung ... you are so so right on this. The Sox and their fans should be looking towards 2015 and not 2014. There are 30 teams in MLB ... in reality each team should win a championship once every 30 years. We have done so 3 times in 10 years. Lester, Buchholz, Owens, Barnes, Webster etc. will be a good rotation in 2015. Bradley should be fine in CF. Victorino will be playing for another contract in 2015. Ortiz might be playing for another contract as well if the Sox extend him out another year. Bogaerts will be a star ... just guessing ... Pedey will be our leader. Someone will emerge at 3B ... Napoli will hopefully be with us for 2 more years and he might be playing in 2015 for another contract. With the players we have now we can be competitive in 2014. We can also move some prospects to improve our needs. We can make deals during the season. Not only will 2014 be fun to watch our boys in Boston but also to watch our boys in Pawtucket. Everyone needs to relax. I do not want Beltran. I would like either Napoli or Hart at the right price and terms. Hart might be a better deal in the end. I one year contract and perhaps a comp pic if he leaves. The Sox are the envy of MLB.

[User Name]

Byrd, Dejesus, Young all off the market. The only other players who might work in CF/RF for the Sox are Ellsbury, Granderson, Choo. Maybe the FO are going to go into next year with Bradley? Either that, or they're drooling at Choo's OBP.

 

Sign Choo, put him in RF for a few months to a year, Vic to CF. When Bradley is ready, push Choo to LF, Vic to RF, Bradley to CF? Seems like a lot of moving pieces, but it could work.

 

Franklin Gutierrez/Reed Johnsonn/ Rajai Davis are all still FA's.

[Palodios]

Choo is gonna cost just as much as Ells why not just sign Ells instead of Choo. I like Ells far better than Choo. Also unless the Sox go over the luxury tax limit or clear some payroll they dont have the money for either Choo or Ells. 1b, C, and a relief pitcher are on the list of prioritizes too. And all the be filled with 25million. They have to clear payroll with one of their starting pitchers moving.

 

You may not like Choo, but his .400 OBP, and high BB% are exactly what the Red Sox like. The guy gets on base as well as anyone, and has the speed to get himself home too.

 

If the Red Sox sign Choo, they have Nava/Carp as depth at 1B. Finding a catcher isn't exactly going to be easy -- Salty and McCann costs too much, Ruiz is gone, AJ is an *******. I see them going with another cheap option like Navarro.

 

Sign Choo for 5/90, pull in Navarro for 1/4. That leaves about 5 million for relief. It is an expensive plan, but Choo is one of the few guys I would put in the "worth-it" column.

[User Name]

I honestly think it more likely that they do in fact start the year with Bradley in CF than they bring Choo in here. I also think they will be reluctant to move Vic to CF. Vic is already showing signs of aging. Moving him to CF will weaken the outfield defense further and tax him more.

 

This team just won a WS. While I don't expect that means they simply take a year off I also don't expect them to dance around that much trying to fill slots when they do have players in the system within a year of being fully ready. I just think it more likely that they would gamble on JBJ for half a year before they would try to fill the slot from outside the organization with a costly option for half a year.

 

Funny how people were clambering for JBJ at the start of last year and now we want to hold him down on the farm a year later.

 

Well said.

[mvp 78]

They don't need 6 OF's!

[User Name]

You may not like Choo, but his .400 OBP, and high BB% are exactly what the Red Sox like. The guy gets on base as well as anyone, and has the speed to get himself home too.

 

If the Red Sox sign Choo, they have Nava/Carp as depth at 1B. Finding a catcher isn't exactly going to be easy -- Salty and McCann costs too much, Ruiz is gone, AJ is an *******. I see them going with another cheap option like Navarro.

 

Sign Choo for 5/90, pull in Navarro for 1/4. That leaves about 5 million for relief. It is an expensive plan, but Choo is one of the few guys I would put in the "worth-it" column.

 

The possibility of Choo signing to 5/90 is pretty close to zero unless he really wants to play for the Sox. Too many offense-starved teams with too much money and the desire to make an impact.

[Palodios]

Funny how people were clambering for JBJ at the start of last year and now we want to hold him down on the farm a year later.

 

I wasn't one of them. Go back and check if you want.

[marklmw]

I cannot wait for JBJ & Bogaerts to kick some butt next season. There is every indication thus far that JBJ will succeed.

[sk7326]

I like Choo's on-base skills, but do not like his age and increasingly problematic splits.

[User Name]

I like Choo's on-base skills, but do not like his age and increasingly problematic splits.

 

Not good defensively either.

[Palodios]

I cannot wait for JBJ & Bogaerts to kick some butt next season. There is every indication thus far that JBJ will succeed.

 

Someone on Talksox once made the argument that you need to give guys a chance to win their positions. Maybe Choo is an overshot, but if you sign someone like Young or Davis and give Bradley a chance to prove he is better than those guys, I think he will be better for it. Pedroia did it, Ellsbury did it, Bogaerts did it. Middlebrooks beat out Youkilis, but when he was handed the 3B job it didn't go so well.

[Palodios]

Not good defensively either.

 

Not good, but not bad either. He has a career 13.7 UZR/150 in LF, and -2.5 in RF. Best case scenario, he plays RF until Bradley is ready, then takes over LF where he would probably be above average defensively.

[marklmw]

Not good, but not bad either. He has a career 13.7 UZR/150 in LF, and -2.5 in RF. Best case scenario, he plays RF until Bradley is ready, then takes over LF where he would probably be above average defensively.

JBJ is ready. Let him learn on the job like Puig. He is more of a finished product than Puig was this past season. We won the 2013 WS without a lot of gaudy numbers by any one player ... maybe Ortiz but Papi is back next year. Everyone take a deep breath. We will be ok without Ellsbury, Beltran or Choo.

[Palodios]

JBJ is ready. Let him learn on the job like Puig. He is more of a finished product than Puig was this past season. We won the 2013 WS without a lot of gaudy numbers by any one player ... maybe Ortiz but Papi is back next year. Everyone take a deep breath. We will be ok without Ellsbury, Beltran or Choo.

 

What are the odds that Bradley succeeds immediately, and Victorino stays healthy? Shane gets banged up a lot, and Bradley is still a rookie. You need someone to backup RF, and I don't think Nava, Gomes or Carp have even remotely enough range.

[sk7326]

Not good defensively either.

 

His 2013 UZR has to be taken with a giant bale of salt given the playing out of position. In most contexts he is ok.

 

As far as Bradley goes - competition is healthy, but then so is being decisive, especially in this market. After all, in 2006 Pedroia was hoplessly overmatched. And he got off to a bad start in 2007 too - there was every reason to pull the plug but the team stuck with its evaluation. Pedroia had the big May and suddenly life got better.

 

Both Middlebrooks and Bradley were victims of some extreme small sample size shocks causing hysteria. Middlebrooks that hot streak coming up from Pawtucket, and Bradley with that amazing spring despite almost no performance history above Single A. The injury and the lost reps clearly affected Middlebrooks and he basically lost a year of experience, I still like him because the talent is there and great athletes are good guys to bet on. Bradley, if you look at what he has accomplished at every level of baseball for his age - while it is not as extraordinary as Bogaerts (and guys with Bogaerts' progress through a system almost never "FAIL") - he is very much on track to be a really effective starting CF. I think his approach and secondary skills are good enough for him to figure out big league pitching on the job while not being an automatic out - as long as the team is patient. The thing he has to learn (how to hit grown man breaking stuff) can only come up in the show.

[sk7326]

What are the odds that Bradley succeeds immediately, and Victorino stays healthy? Shane gets banged up a lot, and Bradley is still a rookie. You need someone to backup RF, and I don't think Nava, Gomes or Carp have even remotely enough range.

 

Depends on your definition of immediately. Pedroia had a robust .182/.308/.236 in April 2007. Bradley in his cup of coffee had .189/.280/.337. Nothing to brag about, but the OBP skills are there - just need to strike out a little less (like back to his norms - and he shows every indication that he will strike out a good deal) and he'll be fine.

[Dojji]

JBJ is ready. Let him learn on the job like Puig.

 

I'd hate this argument a lot less if people stopped using analogies to players like Puig and Trout that have nothing to do with an honest evaluation of Bradley's skill and talent.

 

JBJ is not Puig. He is not Trout. Those two players can live on talent because their talent is at a level you see a few times in a generation. If JBJ had a sniff of Puig's talent that might be the way to go, but he's not nearly that good. Whatever he does is going to using intelligence and plate approach to make his mark offensively, the raw talent is roughly at the David Dejesus level -- not bad surely, but he's not going to skate by in the big leagues on pure talent while he learns to actually play the game. That being the case, letting him gain experience and develop his approach a little more would be no sin.

Edited November 22, 2013 by Dojji