2014 Roster Projections

[User Name]

I'd never say Nap is indespensible.

 

The Sox have a lot of options at 1B.

 

Is Billy Butler available? He could certainly be a big hitter at Fenway Park.

 

If the Sox sign Stephen Drew, what about sending Middlebrooks to LA for Trumbo? The Angels (badly) need a 3B.

 

Early reports are that Napoli doesn't like the Sox initial offer and is shopping around.

 

Trumbo? As a hitter, he's the opposite of the Sox' organizational hitting philosophy. Doesn't make sense.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Trumbo? As a hitter, he's the opposite of the Sox' organizational hitting philosophy. Doesn't make sense.

 

As is Middlebrooks, but if you can move Middlebrooks for Trumbo straight up, you at least have the raw power hitter at a position of little organizational depth.

[User Name]

As is Middlebrooks, but if you can move Middlebrooks for Trumbo straight up, you at least have the raw power hitter at a position of little organizational depth.

 

But you certainly wouldn't get WMB for Trumbo straight up. And WMB's free-swinging ways are what have him on the outside looking in.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But you certainly wouldn't get WMB for Trumbo straight up. And WMB's free-swinging ways are what have him on the outside looking in.

 

Why not? LAA gets slightly less raw power where power is significantly more valued for 2 years.

 

Trumbo in 2013: 159 G .234/.294/.453, 34 HR

 

Trumbo Career: .250/.299/.469

 

WMB Career: 169 G .254/.294/.462, 32 HR

 

They're extremely similar players. And the Angels need a 3B, while the Sox need a 1B.

 

If there were no Bogaerts or Cecchini lined up, his free swinging ways would be absorbed by the team.

[Palodios]

The Red Sox have the depth to sustain losing some of their free agents, but they have no one behind Napoli. Really hoping they get that one done. Not liking these reports of the Sox being cheap. There are situations where you take the arbitration pick and run, but this is not one of them.

[User Name]

Why not? LAA gets slightly less raw power where power is significantly more valued for 2 years.

 

Trumbo in 2013: 159 G .234/.294/.453, 34 HR

 

Trumbo Career: .250/.299/.469

 

WMB Career: 169 G .254/.294/.462, 32 HR

 

They're extremely similar players. And the Angels need a 3B, while the Sox need a 1B.

 

If there were no Bogaerts or Cecchini lined up, his free swinging ways would be absorbed by the team.

 

....or you can just re-sign Napoli, instead of going for Trumbo, who is an extremely similar player to someone the Red Sox may be trying to replace.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Red Sox have the depth to sustain losing some of their free agents, but they have no one behind Napoli. Really hoping they get that one done. Not liking these reports of the Sox being cheap. There are situations where you take the arbitration pick and run, but this is not one of them.

 

Unless the Red Sox are wanting to go after a big, big bat (Stanton, etc) via trade, and then stick Nava at 1B, I agree with you.

 

I can certainly envision a scenario where the Red Sox go hard after a bat via the trade market, stick Nava and Carp at 1B for about 1/2 of the year, and then A) move Cecchini over to 1B to develop him there and look at what's available at the trade market.

 

I don't think Carp playing there everyday would necessarily hurt you. He had a .885 OPS last year, and his 3 year 162 gm average has him at a .790 OPS with around 20 HR a year. Certainly they could do worse than that. It's not far off at all from where Adrian Gonzalez was in 2012.

[Bellhorn04]

Why do they have to stay under the lux tax??

 

They already reset their numbers last year when they stayed under.

 

There's a new penalty for going over the threshold. If a big market team like the Red Sox stays under the threshold they have to pay less in revenue sharing than they do if they go over. No idea how it's calculated but it's a significant chunk of money.

[MNSoxChief102]

Looks like we have a multi-year offer out to Nap. Don't blame him for shopping a bit to see if anyone wants to go higher, but something tells me he's coming back. He absolutely loved playing in Boston and Fenway is built for a guy like him with ridiculous power to left and center field. Something around the original deal he signed sounds about right.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/napoli-to-explore-market-has-multiyear-offer-from-boston.html

[redsoxfan3]

Mike Napoli has made it clear that he wants to remain with the Red Sox, but Yahoo's Jeff Passan reports that a return tour is no sure thing. According to Passan, Napoli has received a multiyear offer from Boston but will still shop around and see what other teams are willing to offer (Twitter link).

 

The above is from MLBTR. Napoli has a multiyear offer from the Red Sox and he has said that he wants to return to Boston. He could just be saying he wants to explore the market to possibly gain some leverage in negotiations maybe hoping for a higher AAV from Boston. I do not know what the offer is in years or money, but I think there is a high probability that he returns next year. There is mutual interest.

 

Multiple reports indicate that the Red Sox are interested in Carlos Beltran, though the extent of that interest is somewhat up in the air. George A. King III of the New York Post reports that Boston is "aggressively" pursuing Beltran but are receiving early competition from the Yankees and Orioles. Elsewhere, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo tweets that the Red Sox do indeed have interest in the eight-time All-Star, but a team source tells him they haven't been very aggressive to this point.

 

The above is also from MLBTR. The thing that I do like about the possibility of signing Beltran is the chance for a short-term contract. The thing that I do not like about the possibility of signing Beltran is his age and how he can play. Can he hit as well as he did in 2013? He will be a veteran guy in the clubhouse and on a short-term contract, he could be a really nice addition to this lineup. He would almost certainly shift Victorino to CF and would play RF if we sign him. If he were to sustain some sort of injury, we do have Bradley ready to go. I would love to see a lineup of something like:

 

Victorino

Pedroia

Ortiz

Beltran

Napoli

Gomes/Nava

Middlebrooks

Salty/McCann/Ruiz/Ross

Bogaerts

 

Of course that lineup is just a rough draft. I don't know the exact order. If I remember right, Beltran hit second for the Cardinals quite a bit. I am not sure if Farrell would have Pedroia or Victorino lead off. I imagine it would be Victorino because Pedroia does not like to lead off, although I think he would be successful as a lead off hitter. I think Pedroia will regain some power next year if he can successfully recover from this thumb surgery. If he is fully healthy, that could be a scary power lineup. Ortiz, Beltran, and Napoli have a lot of power in the middle of the order. If we would sign McCann, then McCann, Middlebrooks, Gomes, and Bogaerts also have the potential to hit for a lot of power.

 

This is just my personal opinion, but I think Ellsbury and Drew are gone. I think we resign Napoli. Salty is still up in the air. That depends on how bad we want to go after McCann or Ruiz, and if Salty is willing to take a hometown discount. I also think we try to heavily shop Dempster around, even if we have to eat some of his salary. With five solid starters, we still have depth of Workman, Webster, RDLR, Wright, Barnes, and Ranaudo. I would rather have a #4 and #5 of Peavy and Doubront over any combination with one of those two and Dempster. I also am hoping we go hard after one of Brian Wilson or Joe Nathan to help as a set-up man and as closer depth. Bailey is a question mark, and even with Tazawa and Breslow, I think we need to add a reliable arm to help out in the late innings.

[Palodios]

Unless the Red Sox are wanting to go after a big, big bat (Stanton, etc) via trade, and then stick Nava at 1B, I agree with you.

 

The grass is always greener. Why trade the farm for a guy like Stanton when Napoli outproduced him last year? Top defense at the position, highest pitches taken in the majors, and a pretty good bat too.

[Jasonbay44]

I just read that Sox are interested in Beltran and also have expressed some interest in Tim Hudson. I don't know about Hudson, but I feel like Beltran would be a solid get.

[BSN07]

I don't buy the Beltran hype. They are either running the price up for the Yankees or the agents are hyping it to milk the Yanks. I don't see them moving Vic to CF or Beltran holding down CF for 2 years which is probably the length of deal he will get imo.

[redsoxfan3]

The grass is always greener. Why trade the farm for a guy like Stanton when Napoli outproduced him last year? Top defense at the position, highest pitches taken in the majors, and a pretty good bat too.

 

Stanton turned 24 today. He is young and isn't a FA until 2017. I just don't see the need to give up several top prospects to get him. I have never liked the idea of trading several quality prospects for one player. I know Stanton has a lot of power and is really young, but I would rather keep the prospects and try to resign Napoli and sign Beltran on a short term deal. Beltran and Stanton posted identical WAR's this past year at 2.4. Beltran's dWAR was -1.5 and Stanton's was -1.4. Beltran's oWAR was 3.2 and Stanton's was 3.3. I know that Stanton is the younger player, but why potentially trade guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, Bradley, Bogaerts, Webster, etc. to land one guy? I think it makes more sense in the short-term and the long-term to keep our prospects and try to sign a guy like Beltran if we are looking for a power bat in RF. Defensively we almost get the same type of production in the short-term, and we could deal with everything else in the long-term as needs arise.

[redsoxfan3]

I don't buy the Beltran hype. They are either running the price up for the Yankees or the agents are hyping it to milk the Yanks. I don't see them moving Vic to CF or Beltran holding down CF for 2 years which is probably the length of deal he will get imo.

 

That is understandable. I would highly doubt that Beltran takes over in CF. We would have to move Victorino to CF and Beltran would start in RF. We lose a lot defensively by having Beltran in RF rather than Victorino, but we also gain a lot of power offensively with Beltran's bat in the lineup. BC was saying the other day that it would take a lot to move Victorino out of RF. I think that signing Beltran would be a reason to move Victorino or trading for Stanton, however, I prefer signing Beltran over trading the farm for Stanton.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The grass is always greener. Why trade the farm for a guy like Stanton when Napoli outproduced him last year? Top defense at the position, highest pitches taken in the majors, and a pretty good bat too.

 

Age, talent level, years of control, cost, replacement for Ortiz, 40+ HR at Fenway, franchise cornerstone bat along with Bogaerts. Should I continue?

 

And Stanton posted a 135 wRC+, Nap posted a 129 wRC+. And Stanton plays his home games at an enormous park.

[redsoxfan3]

Age, talent level, years of control, cost, replacement for Ortiz, 40+ HR at Fenway, franchise cornerstone bat along with Bogaerts. Should I continue?

 

And Stanton posted a 135 wRC+, Nap posted a 129 wRC+. And Stanton plays his home games at an enormous park.

 

Do you think that we can realistically land Stanton without giving up Bogaerts? If I were Miami, I would not accept any offer from Boston without a package that includes Bogaerts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Stanton turned 24 today. He is young and isn't a FA until 2017. I just don't see the need to give up several top prospects to get him. I have never liked the idea of trading several quality prospects for one player. I know Stanton has a lot of power and is really young, but I would rather keep the prospects and try to resign Napoli and sign Beltran on a short term deal. Beltran and Stanton posted identical WAR's this past year at 2.4. Beltran's dWAR was -1.5 and Stanton's was -1.4. Beltran's oWAR was 3.2 and Stanton's was 3.3. I know that Stanton is the younger player, but why potentially trade guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, Bradley, Bogaerts, Webster, etc. to land one guy? I think it makes more sense in the short-term and the long-term to keep our prospects and try to sign a guy like Beltran if we are looking for a power bat in RF. Defensively we almost get the same type of production in the short-term, and we could deal with everything else in the long-term as needs arise.

 

If you can get Stanton for Cecchini, Betts, Ranaudo, and Barnes, you pull the trigger on that instantly. And that's likely a better package than anyone else will really be able to offer.

 

Everyone keeps saying "why trade for him when you can sign ____ on a short term deal?"

 

I just have 1 question. Who are you using to replace Ortiz in 2015? He's going to retire in 1-2 years. Who is going to replace him?? It's not going to be someone on a short term deal. It's not going to be Napoli.

 

You need that huge, cornerstone bat to build around. If you have Stanton, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Swihart, and Bradley, that's an enormous level of talent to build around. Particularly when you've also got guys like Owens and Ball sitting in the minors.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Do you think that we can realistically land Stanton without giving up Bogaerts? If I were Miami, I would not accept any offer from Boston without a package that includes Bogaerts.

 

Absolutely. The Red Sox can beat any other package without giving up Bogaerts. And probably without giving up Owens, either. Their farm is well beyond stocked and top heavy right now.

[sk7326]

I would avoid Kemp. He had a big contract season, then has had injury problems since then. Pass.

 

I would also avoid Beltran--the Cardinals were lucky with him. 37yo with no knees.

 

One problem the Red Sox have is they have so much money to spend they sometimes go looking for excuses to spend it. The result is they often block young players, with the excuse that "they aren't ready."

 

What they should do is throw money at their NEEDS. That means maybe McCann--a guy who can catch as well as hit. Perfect compliment to Ross. Then you have to ask how Lav fits in the picture. I don't know. But with those veteran pitchers, a good game caller and pitch framer (watch Ross work behind the plate--a master) is needed. Epstein missed the boat not signing Martin instead of Salty several years ago. Martin much better defensively and timely hitter like Ross.

 

Nap fits a need, and should be re-signed as a priority. They have the inside track on him. Ells and Drew both block young players. I say no, at Boras' inflated prices. Bogaerts can play SS, JBJ or Vic in the OF. An OF of Vic,Gomes,Nava,Carp,JBJ looks OK. Beltran would add depth, but at what price? Giving up on Middlebrooks and switching Bogie to 3B so early in his career would be foolish. They can lock up the left side of their IF for 10 years.

 

Catcher is not a need. Could you upgrade on Saltalamacchia. Sure. Could you downgrade and make yourself happy talking about defense? Sure. Replacement level at catcher is basically zero and at status quo there aren't half a dozen teams with better catching situations than ours. Laying out a lot of money on McCann does not create much marginal improvement at that position. He is an upgrade - but for the cost, not a large one.

 

Relief pitching is a need - as is the case for every team. You cannot go in expecting Breslow to give that performance again, or for that matter Uehara. Some of this can be sourced internally, but shoring that up makes sense. More starting pitching is a fair ask if it's not too pricey. Getting some improvement from the outfield offensively would be nice too. Victorino's turnaround was shocking and you have to anticipate some regression for a 33 year old. LF we created a positive situation out of platoons - but Beltran for a short hitch would be an upgrade. But with a QO attached to him he is a non-starter.

[redsoxfan3]

If you can get Stanton for Cecchini, Betts, Ranaudo, and Barnes, you pull the trigger on that instantly. And that's likely a better package than anyone else will really be able to offer.

 

Everyone keeps saying "why trade for him when you can sign ____ on a short term deal?"

 

I just have 1 question. Who are you using to replace Ortiz in 2015? He's going to retire in 1-2 years. Who is going to replace him?? It's not going to be someone on a short term deal. It's not going to be Napoli.

 

You need that huge, cornerstone bat to build around. If you have Stanton, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Swihart, and Bradley, that's an enormous level of talent to build around. Particularly when you've also got guys like Owens and Ball sitting in the minors.

 

I do agree with you about that. If we could keep all of Bradley, Bogaerts, and Owens, I would be happy to land Stanton.

 

Replacing Ortiz is going to be tough. I am not disagreeing at all with you about acquiring Stanton or your outlook on him. I just sure as hell do not want to give up Bogaerts, Owens, or Bradley in doing so. Count me in if we can package Cecchini, Betts, Ranaudo, and Barnes for him.

 

Absolutely. The Red Sox can beat any other package without giving up Bogaerts. And probably without giving up Owens, either. Their farm is well beyond stocked and top heavy right now.

 

Fair enough. As I already said, if we can land Stanton with your aforementioned package, then I am all for it. If we have to include Bogaerts, Owens, and even Bradley, then count me out.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I do agree with you about that. If we could keep all of Bradley, Bogaerts, and Owens, I would be happy to land Stanton.

 

Replacing Ortiz is going to be tough. I am not disagreeing at all with you about acquiring Stanton or your outlook on him. I just sure as hell do not want to give up Bogaerts, Owens, or Bradley in doing so. Count me in if we can package Cecchini, Betts, Ranaudo, and Barnes for him.

 

 

 

Fair enough. As I already said, if we can land Stanton with your aforementioned package, then I am all for it. If we have to include Bogaerts, Owens, and even Bradley, then count me out.

 

Well, I certainly think the Red Sox should make that offer and see what the Marlins say in return.

 

I would be willing to add Middlebrooks or Doubront to that offer, too, if it was a deal breaker.

 

As stated, the Marlins would get a Top 25 (Cecchini), 2 top 50's (Barnes, Ranaudo), and a certain top 100 (Betts) prospect. I wouldn't want to deal Swihart but if I had to deal Swihart in there rather than Betts, he's a top 50 guy as well, so now you've got 3 top 50's, a top 25, and Doubront or Middlebrooks.

[jung]

No question the Sox are one of the few teams in baseball that could put together a deal that could entice the Marlins while still not gutting the system. Sox are in a very enviable position in that regard.

 

On a related topic, the news today is that the Sox have already put an offer in front of Napoli. Apparently he still wants to test the water. Seems clear the Sox want him back.

[marklmw]

Age, talent level, years of control, cost, replacement for Ortiz, 40+ HR at Fenway, franchise cornerstone bat along with Bogaerts. Should I continue?

 

And Stanton posted a 135 wRC+, Nap posted a 129 wRC+. And Stanton plays his home games at an enormous park.

 

Someone has a man crush on Stanton. Don't worry it happens to all of us.

[Jasonbay44]

Well, I certainly think the Red Sox should make that offer and see what the Marlins say in return.

 

I would be willing to add Middlebrooks or Doubront to that offer, too, if it was a deal breaker.

 

As stated, the Marlins would get a Top 25 (Cecchini), 2 top 50's (Barnes, Ranaudo), and a certain top 100 (Betts) prospect. I wouldn't want to deal Swihart but if I had to deal Swihart in there rather than Betts, he's a top 50 guy as well, so now you've got 3 top 50's, a top 25, and Doubront or Middlebrooks.

If the Marlins were willing to accept an offer like, I'd be all for it as well. I just really wouldn't want to move Xander in any deal.

[SoxFanForsyth]

If the Marlins were willing to accept an offer like, I'd be all for it as well. I just really wouldn't want to move Xander in any deal.

 

I 100% agree. Any move involving Xander is off the table, even Stanton.

[mvp 78]

Someone has a man crush on Stanton. Don't worry it happens to all of us.

 

This guy gets it.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Yeah but Stanton had a "down year" and posted a 135 wRC+ at the age of 23, and has hit 117 HR already in his career. And he's been playing an enormous field for the past 2 seasons, and in a division with Citi.

[BornToRun]

Age, talent level, years of control, cost, replacement for Ortiz, 40+ HR at Fenway, franchise cornerstone bat along with Bogaerts. Should I continue?

 

And Stanton posted a 135 wRC+, Nap posted a 129 wRC+. And Stanton plays his home games at an enormous park.

 

He's also had a history of lower body issues and is closing in on free agency. The Marlins have made it painfully clear that they are not trading him, so to get him would require Miami getting blown out of the water. Not a chance in hell that they don't insist on X.

 

We'd also only have a short period before he hits free agency at which point we'd have to pay something close to A-Rod money, I'd bet, to keep him. Why trade your farm for a couple years of a guy who you can just go after in free agency not too long from now?

 

I don't want to bring him in and run the risk of losing him to another team after we sold the farm to land him.

 

And as I said above, his injury history concerns me. He's had issues with his legs for the last couple years.

[SoxFanForsyth]

He's also had a history of lower body issues and is closing in on free agency. The Marlins have made it painfully clear that they are not trading him, so to get him would require Miami getting blown out of the water. Not a chance in hell that they don't insist on X.

 

We'd also only have a short period before he hits free agency at which point we'd have to pay something close to A-Rod money, I'd bet, to keep him. Why trade your farm for a couple years of a guy who you can just go after in free agency not too long from now?

 

I don't want to bring him in and run the risk of losing him to another team after we sold the farm to land him.

 

And as I said above, his injury history concerns me. He's had issues with his legs for the last couple years.

 

Closing in on FA?? He hasn't even entered arbitration until this year. EDIT: I'm sorry. He doesn't even get to his 1st year of arbitration until NEXT year!!! He's not a FA until 2017.

 

They say they're not trading him of course. They would lose every bit of leverage they have if they don't.

 

Again, he's not a FA until 2017. That's 4 seasons away, at which point the Red Sox have $16.125mm obligated right now.

 

His injury concerns have lead him to a 135 wRC+ and a 156 wRC+ over the past two years.

 

Simply put, he's the best RH power hitter not named Miguel Cabrera.

 

You put him in Fenway and you get Manny Ramirez production.

Edited November 8, 2013 by SoxFanForsyth