2014 Roster Projections

[Bellhorn04]

I am hoping Drew returns. I like his steady defense at SS and I think he works really well with Pedroia.

 

I think many of us would like to see Drew back, with Bogaerts at third. But the economics may rule it out.

[DirtDog]

I think many of us would like to see Drew back, with Bogaerts at third. But the economics may rule it out.

 

Could see him getting a 3 or 4 year deal maybe something like 10 per, in which case he wouldn't take a QO - could result in draft pick compensation for us.

[DirtDog]

I think the real interesting area is what the Sox do in terms of starting pitching. Right now you have veterans clogging up rotation spots with massive amounts of promising arms in the upper minors ready to make an impact. Ranaudo, Webster, Workman, Barnes & the best of them all (imo) Henry Owens may even get a look in 2014. That's 5 B or better rated prospects that deserve a shot. The problem is we have:

 

1 Lester (2014)

2 Buchholz (2015) with team options for 2016 and 2017

3 Lackey (2014 - crazy there is a team option for 2015 for the minimum salary because he missed time due to injury. this is a crazy valuable option)

4 Peavy (2014)

5 Doubront (earliest free agent 2018)

6 Dempster (2014)

 

That right there is six rotation spots taken by veterans.

 

Moving Dempster to the bullpen would be weird cause is an insanely overpaid at 13 million. I see Drake Britton and De La Rosa as bullpen arms at this point. Not a negative, i think they can be pretty solid. I'd like to see Tazawa close with Uehara being more of a setup/put out a fire guy. But the bullpen is a whole other issue.

 

I really think they need to trade Buchholz and/or Lackey right now while their value is really good. The consistency with both makes me feel better about it, cause there is a chance both coudl end up missing time due to injuries in 2014 regardless. Might as well cash in on both of them while you can. I like both and will be sad to see them go. I, like everyone else, always hated Lackey but the performance he had this year will never be forgotten. He proved the doubters wrong and then some. Will always respect him for that.

 

We need to make a decision on Lester - I think we may need to let him go after next year. He's been great for us but I'm not sure it's worth throwing CC Sabathia money at him, which is what I think it might take on the open market.

[DirtDog]

Don't forget is right. He was horrible against righties this year - an OBP of .244. Yikes.

 

My personal preference for next year, unlikely though it may be, would be Bogaerts at third, Drew at short, and Middlebrooks traded.

 

I don't think there is any reason to trade Middlebrooks. He had a sophomore slump. I expect some progress next year. Say that they decide to retain Drew for some reason. Worst case he's a good power bat off the bench. Drew isn't exactly a lock to stay healthy either. Rule of thumb - you don't trade players at their lowest value.

[Bellhorn04]

I really think they need to trade Buchholz and/or Lackey right now while their value is really good. The consistency with both makes me feel better about it, cause there is a chance both coudl end up missing time due to injuries in 2014 regardless. Might as well cash in on both of them while you can. I like both and will be sad to see them go. I, like everyone else, always hated Lackey but the performance he had this year will never be forgotten. He proved the doubters wrong and then some. Will always respect him for that.

 

We need to make a decision on Lester - I think we may need to let him go after next year. He's been great for us but I'm not sure it's worth throwing CC Sabathia money at him, which is what I think it might take on the open market.

 

I highly doubt that the plan is to go into 2015 with no Lester and no Buchholz.

 

Buchholz is one of the most talented starters in baseball and is under control for 4 more years.

 

Obviously many fans have lost patience because of the injuries and missed time.

 

Cherington's job is not to think like a fan.

[jung]

Both sides (Buch's team-family, friends, agents etc) and the Sox need to sit down and decide a plan aimed at increasing his durability. Doing it all by a Red Sox plan has not seemed to work and doing it all Buch's way has not seemed to work either.

 

Maybe Pedro is right. Maybe it does just takes a monumental amount of work for guys without much size to manage to stay on the mound. Pedro says he spent 2-3 hours each day just working on his shoulder. Probably means that on "days off" he was putting in 4-5 hour workouts anyway. At the rate Buch is going he is going to end up having one of those almost careers if he is not careful. But if he can arrive at a solution to his fragility then he really does become a monster IMO.

Edited November 3, 2013 by jung

[jad]

Bradley had 61 at-bats above single-A when he crushed spring training ... his progress is fine. There is little reason to think Bradley won't be Ellsbury's equal (or close) in terms of getting on-base.

 

Maybe. He didn't look great when in Boston, though. OBP? Interesting. Maybe he could make up for it there (it's not Els' strong suit!) I love his swing. I just want to see him hit the ball more, and so far, there hasn't been enough of that.

[DirtDog]

I highly doubt that the plan is to go into 2015 with no Lester and no Buchholz.

 

Buchholz is one of the most talented starters in baseball and is under control for 4 more years.

 

Obviously many fans have lost patience because of the injuries and missed time.

 

Cherington's job is not to think like a fan.

 

Think like a fan? Lester, Buchholz and Lackey would be going nowhere if Cherington is thinking like a fan. In a perfect world you want to retain everyone. Being a GM is looking 5 years ahead. A good GM has to make tough decisions and evaluate all players while not being enamored by past performance while recognizing future cheap gains. If they want a 35 y/o Jon Lester making 20-22 million per then that's their decision. I can't go ahead and say it will be right one way or the other, but history has proven these types of contracts are disasters for starting pitchers.

 

As for Buchholz he has put in one healthy productive season in his major league career. Even in that one he only pitched 178 innings, his career high. That's a huge red flag. His option years aren't exactly cheap in 2016 and 2017 at roughly 13 million. You can't pay a guy that much money when he pitches 100 innings a year.

Edited November 3, 2013 by DirtDog

[Bellhorn04]

As for Buchholz he has put in one healthy productive season in his major league career. Even in that one he only pitched 178 innings, his career high. That's a huge red flag. His option years aren't exactly cheap in 2016 and 2017 at roughly 13 million. You can't pay a guy that much money when he pitches 100 innings a year.

 

13 million is pretty damn cheap by current standards.

[DirtDog]

Maybe. He didn't look great when in Boston, though. OBP? Interesting. Maybe he could make up for it there (it's not Els' strong suit!) I love his swing. I just want to see him hit the ball more, and so far, there hasn't been enough of that.

I think Bradley is going to be fine player on his own right. But if fans think he's going to equal Ellsbury's production they will be extremely disapointed.

[DirtDog]

13 million is pretty damn cheap by current standards.

Yes, for a guy who can get on the field and play.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, for a guy who can get on the field and play.

 

None of us have any idea how many games Buchholz is going to miss over the next four years.

 

Ellsbury is another guy who has often been described as a player who can't stay on the field. But because he had a solid year this year a lot of people are willing to offer him $100 million.

[User Name]

Think like a fan? Lester, Buchholz and Lackey would be going nowhere if Cherington is thinking like a fan. In a perfect world you want to retain everyone. Being a GM is looking 5 years ahead. A good GM has to make tough decisions and evaluate all players while not being enamored by past performance while recognizing future cheap gains. If they want a 35 y/o Jon Lester making 20-22 million per then that's their decision. I can't go ahead and say it will be right one way or the other, but history has proven these types of contracts are disasters for starting pitchers.

 

As for Buchholz he has put in one healthy productive season in his major league career. Even in that one he only pitched 178 innings, his career high. That's a huge red flag. His option years aren't exactly cheap in 2016 and 2017 at roughly 13 million. You can't pay a guy that much money when he pitches 100 innings a year.

 

This is absolutely, completely, and utterly flat out wrong. You're assuming that the pitchers you mentioned as part of the youth movement are not only ready to succeed in the show, but that they will be able to provide a full inning workload. They don't. That's why they have to push veterans off the team. That's what Bellhorn means. Getting rid of productive veterans for question marks is a fan's thought process, because fans don't have a direct grasp on a pitching prospect's development, and a GM can't afford the luxury of growing pains during a championship window.

 

The Red Sox don't have financial problems right now, so it makes zero sense to jettison any veteran pitcher (even Dempster) unless a prospect is literally setting the world on fire and forces the GM's hand. No current prospect has done that yet, though one of Ranaudo/Barnes may do that next year.

[Behindenemylines]

Of the 5 or 6 pitchers in the high minors that are knocking on the door the Sox will be probably lucky if one or possibly two become productive major league starters. You can never have enough experienced major league pitching and those assets need to be used wisely. It doesn't take much for pitching to go south and you end up with a 2012 season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I've been away for a week so forgive me if I'm repeating some things here. I tried to read through most of the posts but only got to page 6.

 

Here's my 2014 25 man roster:

 

C: Brian McCann (5/60)

1B: Napoli (3/36)

2B: Pedroia

SS: Bogaerts

3B: Middlebrooks (give him a shot while Cecchini develops)

LF: Nava

CF: Bradley

RF: Victorino

DH: Ortiz

 

Bench: Carp, Ross, Betemit (2/8mm), Gomes

 

SP: Lester Buchholz Lackey Doubront Peavy

 

RP: Uehara, Bailey (non tendered but resigned), Miller, Tazawa, Breslow, Crain (2/12mm), Dempster.

 

Offense: I really don't see many big changes. I'm hearing that the Marlins are pretty interested in Middlebrooks so I can certainly see the Sox at least entertaining offers for him, but it would need to be a solid player in return to give up so early on a 25 HR+ bat. I also think Cecchini comes up and makes some contribution, perhaps displacing Middlebrooks in the process.

 

Pitching, I like Dempster as an insurance plan for the 6th man. I also love having Ranaudo, Barnes, Workman, Webster, and, by the end of the year, Owens as depth. That's a lot of high quality arms waiting to be called up, but with 6 SP options (7 if you count Workman, who showed he is able to give you quality outings), you allow the guys in the minors to develop and not be rushed up until they basically force a decision.

 

As for the lineup, I see something like this:

 

Nava

Victorino

Pedroia

Ortiz

Napoli

McCann

Bogaerts

Middlebrooks

Bradley

 

Love Nava's OBP, and there are no burners on this team so you're not really sacrificing much by putting Nava lead off like you would if you had an Ellsbury type guy.

 

Vs LHP, I may go:

 

Victorino

Bogaerts

Pedroia

Ortiz

Napoli

Gomes

Bradley

Middlebrooks

Ross

 

I really like the idea of having Bogaerts hit out of the 2 slot vs LHP.

[SoxFanForsyth]

As a side note, I really think that if Doubront can regain some of his velocity, 2013 will be looked back on as a huge development year. He had to learn how to pitch this year without the velocity, had to lean more on command and changing speeds than throwing 96.

 

If he can get back up to 94-96 with his newfound and developed command and understanding if pitching and not just throwing, he could be a huge arm in the rotation.

[sk7326]

Think like a fan? Lester, Buchholz and Lackey would be going nowhere if Cherington is thinking like a fan. In a perfect world you want to retain everyone. Being a GM is looking 5 years ahead. A good GM has to make tough decisions and evaluate all players while not being enamored by past performance while recognizing future cheap gains. If they want a 35 y/o Jon Lester making 20-22 million per then that's their decision. I can't go ahead and say it will be right one way or the other, but history has proven these types of contracts are disasters for starting pitchers.

 

As for Buchholz he has put in one healthy productive season in his major league career. Even in that one he only pitched 178 innings, his career high. That's a huge red flag. His option years aren't exactly cheap in 2016 and 2017 at roughly 13 million. You can't pay a guy that much money when he pitches 100 innings a year.

 

You can never have enough quality starting pitching. You don't just hand the keys to guys like Ranaudo, Barnes, whomever - especially when these are not ace ceiling sorts. The fact is that quality pitching will either be pressed into duty or valuable in trade. I think there is a chance all of these guys get a cup of coffee in the show next season - and if I were GM, I would look at all of them as prime candidates for middle relief (I like Weaver's idea of middle relief as a good apprenticeship for these guys). I am not comfortable that our top 5 guys will make it through the season, but that is why you still keep looking at solid buy low guys like we did Dempster last season. (and yes, Dempster for his skill set was a very reasonable purchase)

[marklmw]

As a side note, I really think that if Doubront can regain some of his velocity, 2013 will be looked back on as a huge development year. He had to learn how to pitch this year without the velocity, had to lean more on command and changing speeds than throwing 96.

 

If he can get back up to 94-96 with his newfound and developed command and understanding if pitching and not just throwing, he could be a huge arm in the rotation.

 

True that. He can also work on speeding up his game.

[vjcsmoke]

I'd want Salty short term and have room for Vasquez in 2015.

 

The problem with Salty is that he's still a very mediocre to slightly below average defensive catcher.

I'd rather let Salty walk and try to upgrade on him by signing McCann in FA.

McCann is also an offensive upgrade.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanbr01.shtml

[sk7326]

The problem with Salty is that he's still a very mediocre to slightly below average defensive catcher.

I'd rather let Salty walk and try to upgrade on him by signing McCann in FA.

McCann is also an offensive upgrade.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanbr01.shtml

 

McCann's body has a LOT more wear and tear than Saltalamacchia. There is a lot of money chasing not a lot of players. If it gets past 3 years with him, that is a problem. Among Braves fans I know (and I went to school with a lot) - there is very little chance McCann can catch in 3 years if that. He already has slipped some defensively (Salty is at least his equal at blocking the plate, really the gap is all in the throwing out runners part), and is not a DH/1B caliber bat. I can argue agaiinst Salty for 3 years ... but McCann ain't it.

[jung]

If anybody was wondering if Leyland's retirement would end up with the Tigers finding their way to one of the Sox coaches, they have tapped Brad Ausmus to be their new skipper. Has gotten kinda' popular to tap these guys to manage that were not playing too long ago. Not sure I can even guess what kind of a manger Ausmus will make for the Tigers. Catchers are surely popular choices as well.

[marklmw]

McCann's body has a LOT more wear and tear than Saltalamacchia. There is a lot of money chasing not a lot of players. If it gets past 3 years with him, that is a problem. Among Braves fans I know (and I went to school with a lot) - there is very little chance McCann can catch in 3 years if that. He already has slipped some defensively (Salty is at least his equal at blocking the plate, really the gap is all in the throwing out runners part), and is not a DH/1B caliber bat. I can argue agaiinst Salty for 3 years ... but McCann ain't it.

 

I agree ... I do not see what the big fuss is over McCann to be honest. Not at the kind of money that is being discussed. Besides paying him it will cost a high draft pick to boot.

[User Name]

McCann's body has a LOT more wear and tear than Saltalamacchia. There is a lot of money chasing not a lot of players. If it gets past 3 years with him, that is a problem. Among Braves fans I know (and I went to school with a lot) - there is very little chance McCann can catch in 3 years if that. He already has slipped some defensively (Salty is at least his equal at blocking the plate, really the gap is all in the throwing out runners part), and is not a DH/1B caliber bat. I can argue agaiinst Salty for 3 years ... but McCann ain't it.

 

What evidence do you have of this?

[Palodios]

The more I think about McCann, the less I want him here. A 30 year catcher who had a .690 OPS last year, and a .790 OPS this year doesn't seem worth 80 million.

 

Tanaka or McCann would be nice, but all of the free agents available right now have plenty of concerns. Short term deals seem like they work much better, because you're signing players with something to prove, and working for a new contract for the next year. I would like to see the Red Sox hand out 4 qualifying offers.

 

If Salty rejects it, grab A.J. Pierzynski for one year.

When Ells rejects, take a look at Cruz, Granderson or Beltran.

If Drew rejects, go inhouse.

If Napoli rejects, pay him more money.

 

Take a look at the top-tier players in the bargain bin, and overpay for the ones who look like they could make a comeback. Johann Santana, Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum, Josh Johnson. Same thing for relievers -- Hanrahan, Bailey, Lindstrom, Frasor, Madson etc. People laughed at this strategy last year -- and for good reason-- but I would like to think the Red Sox's scouts are good enough to know which of these guys are fool's gold.

[User Name]

Pierzynski? Ewwww. Isn't Carlos Ruiz a FA?

[Palodios]

Pierzynski? Ewwww. Isn't Carlos Ruiz a FA?

 

Yes. Honestly, I'm not picky -- just not 110 million for McCann.

[User Name]

Yes. Honestly, I'm not picky -- just not 110 million for McCann.

 

McCann is not getting 110 million. He's not a catcher long-term.

[marklmw]

The more I think about McCann, the less I want him here. A 30 year catcher who had a .690 OPS last year, and a .790 OPS this year doesn't seem worth 80 million.

 

Tanaka or McCann would be nice, but all of the free agents available right now have plenty of concerns. Short term deals seem like they work much better, because you're signing players with something to prove, and working for a new contract for the next year. I would like to see the Red Sox hand out 4 qualifying offers.

 

If Salty rejects it, grab A.J. Pierzynski for one year.

When Ells rejects, take a look at Cruz, Granderson or Beltran.

If Drew rejects, go inhouse.

If Napoli rejects, pay him more money.

 

Take a look at the top-tier players in the bargain bin, and overpay for the ones who look like they could make a comeback. Johann Santana, Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum, Josh Johnson. Same thing for relievers -- Hanrahan, Bailey, Lindstrom, Frasor, Madson etc. People laughed at this strategy last year -- and for good reason-- but I would like to think the Red Sox's scouts are good enough to know which of these guys are fool's gold.

 

You do realize that the Vegas odds before last season were 25 to 1. You would not have found many Sox fans who could have predicted that Boston would have the best record in all of baseball. On top of this to beat Tampa, Detroit and St. Louis like the way they did it was beyond belief. What worked last year does not guarantee that it will work again. Every team needs key players to carry on the winning ways ... Ortiz is at the end of his career, Ellsbury was playing for his big contract. Lester needed a come back year and he went through some ups and downs. The Sox are a top tier market team ... obtaining Tanaka will make the team a lot better for next season and the 4-5 after that.

[Palodios]

You do realize that the Vegas odds before last season were 25 to 1. You would not have found many Sox fans who could have predicted that Boston would have the best record in all of baseball. On top of this to beat Tampa, Detroit and St. Louis like the way they did it was beyond belief. What worked last year does not guarantee that it will work again. Every team needs key players to carry on the winning ways ... Ortiz is at the end of his career, Ellsbury was playing for his big contract. Lester needed a come back year and he went through some ups and downs. The Sox are a top tier market team ... obtaining Tanaka will make the team a lot better for next season and the 4-5 after that.

 

The Red Sox have one of the best farm systems in the major leagues. If they are going to do well in 2014, that will because Bogaerts turned into a monster at the plate, Workman turned into an top reliever, Webster has started lighting the world on fire, or Middlebrooks hits 35 home runs. Tanaka would be nice, but sometimes you need to make sure the team has room to grow -- I wouldn't be upset if they signed him, but I doubt he goes anywhere under 120M total.

[marklmw]

The Red Sox have one of the best farm systems in the major leagues. If they are going to do well in 2014, that will because Bogaerts turned into a monster at the plate, Workman turned into an top reliever, Webster has started lighting the world on fire, or Middlebrooks hits 35 home runs. Tanaka would be nice, but sometimes you need to make sure the team has room to grow -- I wouldn't be upset if they signed him, but I doubt he goes anywhere under 120M total.

First of all you need to take the posting fee out of your head. OK? The owners have soccer clubs, NASCAR teams, Boston Red Sox, NESN. The Red Sox are a play thing for them, the players just chess pieces that they get to move around the board. When you take out the posting fee Tanaka will cost less then Dempster ... Enjoy the fact that Boston finally has an ownership team that is smart and loaded. They would not have traded away Babe Ruth.