Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[Emmz]

Saw video on MLBN a few days ago and I thought he was short. Apparently he's just stout.

 

Oh well.

[marklmw]

If you have elite stuff, size isn't all that important, as Pedro Martinez, Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson have shown. The problem is that Tanaka doesn't have elite stuff, per all accounts. What's really impacted by size in pitchers is durability, and that's just another point against Tanaka.

 

Again, where are you getting your information from? Tanaka has a sick splitter.

[marklmw]

Yeah sorry I went all British there.

 

Then my next question - how could the Sox possibly get near Tanaka?

 

I assume that the FO already need to move a starter, to bring back Drew/or another left sided player?

 

So how do the Sox get Tanaka as well?

 

And with the rest of the league knowing that the Sox need to trade off a starting pitcher, doesn't that put them at an automatic disadvantage? Never mind needing to trade two, to get in the hunt for Tanaka.

 

I just don't see how the Red Sox can even contemplate Tanaka for a moment, when they still need another left sided player on the roster.

 

I may be way off here, but I just can't see how Tanaka is a viable option at all?

 

Going by this Farrell interview they definitely want to trade one of the starters - http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/bos/title-in-the-past-boston-manager-john-farrell-focused-on-the-future?ymd=20131209&content_id=64494092

 

IMO the Sox are going to deal Dempster should we sign Tanaka or not. Dempster may not return to use any noteworthy prospects but moving him could save us 10M in payroll for 2014. (assuming we eat 3M of his contract). If we do sign Tanaka there will be plenty of teams who feel that they will contend in 2014 and would be very interested in Peavy as a #3 so we should get a decent prospect in return.

[marklmw]

In 2014 Which combination of SP's would you rather have:

 

Option 1. Peavy & Dempster ( @ approx.29M)

Option 2. Tanaka & Workman (@ approx. 23M) plus prospects from dealing Peavy & eating 3M of Dempster's contract

Option 3. Peavy & Workman (@ approx.19M ) eating 3M of Dempster's contract.

 

I choose Option 2. and the Sox can make this happen. Even if the Sox do not come away with Tanaka the least they can do is drive up the cost to the Yankees.

[sk7326]

With a 20m posting fee, that doesn't count against the luxury tax, that is a no-brainer bid for the Red Sox. The only question is, with the Yankees swinging their fat wallet, do we even stand a chance of winning? I think you do due diligence. Bid, negotiate, and see what it takes. Tanaka sounds like he's going to be at least a #2 with upside to be a #1 if his cutter stays filthy at the MLB level with the different ball. The crazy thing about Tanaka? He went undefeated even though he had to throw a 'juiced ball' to NPB batters this past season.

 

I know a lot of people are saying what about the money... Well, how about the fact you don't need to pay any prospects? David Price is going to cost SOMEBODY the farm with Premium Prospects, AND he will want a big fat contract on top of that!

 

1. Friends don't let friends use pitcher wins.

2. He is a strikethrower has at least one or two big league pitches. He also improved his approach to something more American i.e. pitch to contact. He is by all acclaim not in the ballpark of Darvish as a free agent. But very very few are, so that is not any sort of dig.

3. His age and #2 potential are very enticing. The workload he has had to date require some skepticism.

[SoxSport]

Tanaka may be going nowhere this year. Rakuten thinks the posting fee is too low.

[Palodios]

Read an article on mlbtraderumors that said several things I have been thinking. The Red Sox benefit greatly if Tanaka isn't posted. The Yankees get stuck with Ervin or Garza for 90-100 million. Neither of those guys even replace Pettite.

 

It also makes Dempster look like a steal at 13 million and more teams may get desperate-- especially with teams like the Twins overpaying for starters left and right and Scherzer and possibly Price staying put.

[seabeachfred]

Read an article on mlbtraderumors that said several things I have been thinking. The Red Sox benefit greatly if Tanaka isn't posted. The Yankees get stuck with Ervin or Garza for 90-100 million. Neither of those guys even replace Pettite.

 

It also makes Dempster look like a steal at 13 million and more teams may get desperate-- especially with teams like the Twins overpaying for starters left and right and Scherzer and possibly Price staying put.

 

I keep wondering Pal when the Tanaka posting, yes or no, will be adjudicated? Is there a time limit as to when it has to happen? We all know that the Red Sox will not be in on bidding for him if he is posted but as you said, if he isn't it works to our advantage since the Yankee alternatives will not be as good and still very costly.

[sk7326]

Tanaka may be going nowhere this year. Rakuten thinks the posting fee is too low.

 

Not surprising. This is the problem with the new arrangement (which has not been officially announced). The whole idea of the auction was to compensate a team who was giving up an important asset (both on the field and in the box office). Giving up a 25 year old pitcher who went unbeaten last season (and the control that comes with it) should be worth more than $20M. This happens all the time in club soccer. If they just tied the posting fee to the contract he agreed to, that would be a lot simpler.

[marklmw]

Read an article on mlbtraderumors that said several things I have been thinking. The Red Sox benefit greatly if Tanaka isn't posted. The Yankees get stuck with Ervin or Garza for 90-100 million. Neither of those guys even replace Pettite.

 

It also makes Dempster look like a steal at 13 million and more teams may get desperate-- especially with teams like the Twins overpaying for starters left and right and Scherzer and possibly Price staying put.

Yeah .... it would be perfect if Tanaka were posted next year rather than now. Of course it probably makes the most sense for Tanaka to remain where he is from an ownership standpoint.

[Palodios]

Yeah .... it would be perfect if Tanaka were posted next year rather than now. Of course it probably makes the most sense for Tanaka to remain where he is from an ownership standpoint.

 

Actually, you're completely right. The Red Sox will be losing Dempster and Peavy, Lackey's salary and possibly Lester though he seems like he wants to stick around. Dempster, Peavy and Lackey's combined salary would be 43 million, plenty to put back into the rotation. Maybe owners will cool down a bit after one year away from huge spending and tv revenue. Look at the possible 2015 Rotation

 

Lester

Lackey

Buchholz

Tanaka

Doubront

 

Owens/Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster will also go a long way in Pawtucket I'd imagine.

[vjcsmoke]

Saw video on MLBN a few days ago and I thought he was short. Apparently he's just stout.

 

Oh well.

 

Tanaka is 6'2 200 lbs. Size is not an issue. The issue is whether or not his team will even post him now that the posting fee has been capped to only 20m dollars. There is a lot less financial incentive for Japanese teams to let their stars go early now. Tanaka is in his prime now at age 25.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1861216-how-masahiro-tanakas-stuff-will-play-against-mlb-hitters

 

Read an article on mlbtraderumors that said several things I have been thinking. The Red Sox benefit greatly if Tanaka isn't posted. The Yankees get stuck with Ervin or Garza for 90-100 million. Neither of those guys even replace Pettite.

 

It also makes Dempster look like a steal at 13 million and more teams may get desperate-- especially with teams like the Twins overpaying for starters left and right and Scherzer and possibly Price staying put.

 

Yup, the Yankees will be in big trouble if they have to wait another year. They can't, they have holes right now and they will likely have to sign /overpay another free agent that might not be as skilled.

Edited December 11, 2013 by vjcsmoke

[Bellhorn04]

Tanaka is 6'2 200 lbs. Size is not an issue. The issue is whether or not his team will even post him now that the posting fee has been capped to only 20m dollars. There is a lot less financial incentive for Japanese teams to let their stars go early now. Tanaka is in his prime now at age 25.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1861216-how-masahiro-tanakas-stuff-will-play-against-mlb-hitters

 

Yup, the Yankees will be in big trouble if they have to wait another year. They can't, they have holes right now and they will likely have to sign /overpay another free agent that might not be as skilled.

 

If there's no Tanaka, the Yankees will pick up a couple of decent starters somehow - salary dumps, whatever. They are obviously going to continue to be busy beavers this offseason.

[sk7326]

For this to be a fair posting agreement, you'd think something like $20M + 10% of total negotiated contract value might have been a fairer compromise.

[marklmw]

For this to be a fair posting agreement, you'd think something like $20M + 10% of total negotiated contract value might have been a fairer compromise.

 

That does seem a lot more fair ... where does the 10% come from however ... the players contract or would it be paid directly to the ownership on top of the players actual contract?

Edited December 11, 2013 by marklmw

[marklmw]

Actually, you're completely right. The Red Sox will be losing Dempster and Peavy, Lackey's salary and possibly Lester though he seems like he wants to stick around. Dempster, Peavy and Lackey's combined salary would be 43 million, plenty to put back into the rotation. Maybe owners will cool down a bit after one year away from huge spending and tv revenue. Look at the possible 2015 Rotation

 

Lester

Lackey

Buchholz

Tanaka

Doubront

 

Owens/Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster will also go a long way in Pawtucket I'd imagine.

 

Let's say that Tanaka is posted this year for season 2014. Is it not worth grabbing him now so that we have him in seasons 2015 - 2020? We can always manage to trade Peavy and Dempster before opening day.

[vjcsmoke]

Let's say that Tanaka is posted this year for season 2014. Is it not worth grabbing him now so that we have him in seasons 2015 - 2020? We can always manage to trade Peavy and Dempster before opening day.

 

The problem is that if he is posted this year, we have to compete with the Yankees. If he is posted in 2014, they may already have the salary slotted for pitchers that they signed in the free agent market. So the Red Sox would have a better shot with the salaries of Dempster and company coming off the books.

 

As for the posting system its going to need some kind of tweaking in the future that may involve some kind of bonus or percentage based on the size of player contract. Because if you're the Fukuoka Eagles, do you take the 20 million, or do you pass and compete for another Championship next year? The Eagles may have been reluctant to post Tanaka before, but the promise of a 50m dollar cash injection surely would have given them an attractive incentive to let Tanaka pursue a career in America. Now, not so much!

 

Think about it, right now, there's no top team in MLB that needs starting pitching who wouldn't pay 20m plus contract for Tanaka. Especially with the new TV deal going through. That mean's it's probably too good a deal on the American side of the ocean.

[Behindenemylines]

I get the feeling after what the Sox went though with Dice K they are going to shy away from Tanaka. They use the excuse that they are heavy with SP and the need is not there. Plus the $pankees need for SP will make them go pretty hard for him. If he is posted it would surprise me if the $pankees don't sign him.

[Palodios]

I get the feeling after what the Sox went though with Dice K they are going to shy away from Tanaka. They use the excuse that they are heavy with SP and the need is not there. Plus the $pankees need for SP will make them go pretty hard for him. If he is posted it would surprise me if the $pankees don't sign him.

 

If Tanaka is posted in 2013, I completely agree with you. If he is posted in 2014, he is a very good fit for the Red Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

If Tanaka is posted in 2013, I completely agree with you. If he is posted in 2014, he is a very good fit for the Red Sox.

 

He'll be even more of a fit for the Yankees next year after their rotation sucks historically this year.

[Palodios]

He'll be even more of a fit for the Yankees next year after their rotation sucks historically this year.

 

They're going to add another arm this year, and I have a hunch that their young pitching might have a good year in 2011. Their real concern for them after 2014 is going to be replacing Jeter and Robertson in an already weak infield and bullpen.

[SoxSport]

No more Dice-Ks, please. Plus they aren't in a big spending mode right now. Don't have to be. They just bought time to gamble on the kids. Their next championship will be because those kids worked out--not because they bought a lot of players.

[sk7326]

No more Dice-Ks, please. Plus they aren't in a big spending mode right now. Don't have to be. They just bought time to gamble on the kids. Their next championship will be because those kids worked out--not because they bought a lot of players.

 

Dice-K did not work out but it was the sort of evaluation that made sense. 6 years of control of a 26 year old with a strong track record? Yes please. Of course, his unwillingness to change his approach for the US killed him. At least Tanaka has flashed from scouting reports more American approach a la Darvish. It's a plus.

 

I tend to look at front office moves as 1) genuinely bad, 2) defensible, 3) genuinely good ... categories #2 and #3 can still have bad results. You can't predict the future, but if you are making percentage plays, you can only get so mad at a front office. (it's why the Gonzalez trade does not fill me with anger or anything)

[marklmw]

Dice-K did not work out but it was the sort of evaluation that made sense. 6 years of control of a 26 year old with a strong track record? Yes please. Of course, his unwillingness to change his approach for the US killed him. At least Tanaka has flashed from scouting reports more American approach a la Darvish. It's a plus.

 

I tend to look at front office moves as 1) genuinely bad, 2) defensible, 3) genuinely good ... categories #2 and #3 can still have bad results. You can't predict the future, but if you are making percentage plays, you can only get so mad at a front office. (it's why the Gonzalez trade does not fill me with anger or anything)

 

SK ... you make such good sense that I am taking you as my 2nd overall pick in this years draft.

[vjcsmoke]

No more Dice-Ks, please. Plus they aren't in a big spending mode right now. Don't have to be. They just bought time to gamble on the kids. Their next championship will be because those kids worked out--not because they bought a lot of players.

 

Of course we don't want another Matsuzaka. But Tanaka is a different type of pitcher. Imagine if we could get Uehara at age 25, when he was still a frontline starting pitcher, for example? In any case, there's always some risk potential when signing a free agent. and not just a Japanese free agent, any of them. You could be getting the next Yu Darvish or you could be getting the next Kei Igawa. Who knows. However we do know that the risk is more affordable with the posting fee now being capped.

 

In any case the Yankee will be all in once Tanaka is posted. I guess all we can do is drive up the price. But the Dodgers and Mariners will likely be driving up the market already. I think if Tanaka comes out this year, there is much less chance of us bidding him up. But if he gets posted the following season, after Dempster, Lackey, etc. go off the books, then he becomes a great fit for us.

[sk7326]

Of course we don't want another Matsuzaka. But Tanaka is a different type of pitcher. Imagine if we could get Uehara at age 25, when he was still a frontline starting pitcher, for example? In any case, there's always some risk potential when signing a free agent. and not just a Japanese free agent, any of them. You could be getting the next Yu Darvish or you could be getting the next Kei Igawa. Who knows. However we do know that the risk is more affordable with the posting fee now being capped.

 

In any case the Yankee will be all in once Tanaka is posted. I guess all we can do is drive up the price. But the Dodgers and Mariners will likely be driving up the market already. I think if Tanaka comes out this year, there is much less chance of us bidding him up. But if he gets posted the following season, after Dempster, Lackey, etc. go off the books, then he becomes a great fit for us.

 

He's almost certainly not Darvish - but a Kuroda peak ain't shabby. The posting fee will be a non-issue. A lot more teams will be in on this, just a matter of where he wants to go.

[SoxSport]

Chances are a west coast team, Seattle or the LA teams, will get Tanaka, because are a lot of Asian Americans on the west coast who are baseball fans. The Yankees will probably get outbid. I doubt the Red Sox are a serious player. Their pitching looks pretty good.

[Spitball]

Tanaka comes down to the Yankees. If they want him, I believe they will get him. It really sucks because Bud Selig has decided to suspend Alex Rodriguez. His decision gives the Yankees the salary relief they need to sign the best available players to outlandish salaries and drive up salaries throughout the game.

 

I believe Selig has conspired to return the Yankees to contention, but has been bad, bad for baseball.

[Palodios]

I still don't understand what good Selig has done for the game. He's turned the sport into a mockery, ticket prices have skyrocketed, there are several stadium fiasco going on right now, and teams like the Marlins and Astros still exist. Inbalance has been pretty crazy league-wide, and the sport is losing market-share very quickly.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not really sure what you're talking about. Selig is a businessman, and while he's made it harder for the average family of 4 to attend a game, he has increased the revenue of his constituents as commissioner. That's his job. His double standard on PEDs is a major stain on his record and if anything, he's made it possible for teams like the Marlins and Astros to stay relevant by instituting revenue sharing and a luxury tax. Selig has been bad for the average fan, but he's been great for the owners and the players in terms of bottom line. Also, while baseball may have been losing market share in the past, you're starting to see a shift in the American population going away from football and to baseball. 2013 was the first year where Pop Warner enrollment has gone down, and with the whole concussion issue, I expect baseball to indirectly benefit. Also, the expansion of baseball to include he entire globe has helped talent influx immensely. So, in the end, Selig has been great for the MLB, but not so great for you and I