Will Middlebrooks

[redsoxrules]

One thing for sure .... Drew has done nothing at the plate to increase his chances of being re-signed by Boston. His glove has been solid but that is not enough with Bogaerts in the wings. Bogaerts prefers to play short and not 3rd.

 

Drew was top 5 SS during the season for production at the plate.

Playoff is too much of small sample size compared to what he did during the season.

[marklmw]

Drew was top 5 SS during the season for production at the plate.

Playoff is too much of small sample size compared to what he did during the season.

 

What metrics are you using to support your claim that Drew was in the top 5 of all SS's

[redsoxrules]

What metrics are you using to support your claim that Drew was in the top 5 of all SS's

 

OPS.

He missed time so you can't look at hits, HR's etc etc. So OPS would be a good stat to use in this case.

[sk7326]

What metrics are you using to support your claim that Drew was in the top 5 of all SS's

 

Drew was 8th in the league in fWAR this year in the majors. And considering he had over 100 fewer PAs than Jean Segura, Jed Lowrie and JJ Hardy - you can argue he was better than that. He is a legitimately top shelf-ish SS. But his injury history (and whatever a GM wants to infer from playoff stats - not much if he is smart) probably will prevent him from getting much more than 3 years.

[marklmw]

Well ... if Drew is really this good and there was not special agreement with Sox management then the Sox will probably make him a QO. They can always start Bogaerts at 3rd and let Middlebrooks begin the season at AAA. What they cannot afford to do is play with Bogaerts head and better still not use such a valuable asset.

[redsoxrules]

Bogaerts will be playing a lot next year. It's just a question if it's SS or 3rd.

[marklmw]

Bogaerts will be playing a lot next year. It's just a question if it's SS or 3rd.

 

If Drew accepts the 14M qualifying offer I would imagine that Bogaerts plays 3rd. I would prefer Drew - Bogaerts over Bogaerts - Middlebrooks. Of course Middlebrooks could work on things this off season ... like setting the jugs machine to deliver one slider after another to the outside part of the plate and just stand there and watch and as one after another go by him. Middlebrooks has a huge upside ... I hope that he can figure things out.

[Dojji]

That's a good point ... there might be a gentleman's agreement not to give Drew a QO if he is not re-signed past 2013.

 

I doubt it. you're trying to read too many jumps ahead of the narrative Mark, to be honest it's getting a bit annoying.

 

Right now, I'd still put my money on the Sox FO putting a QO down on Drew, on that QO having a limited effect on his asking price, but no shortage of teams unafraid to pay the extra price to bring in a shortstop who can help the team win on both sides of the ball. That's the common sense narrative, the narrative that yes, Drew comes with an additional risk, but a 3 or 4 year deal for a shortstop in his early 30's with power, speed, and defensive skill is worth that risk.

 

If Drew asks for 6 years he's going to be disappointed, but if he's looking for a 3 year deal he'll have no problem finding one. both New York teams have their own reasons to bid for his services, the Mets are a real shortstop and a decent LF away from putting up some winning seasons again, and the Yankees are going to ask themselves hard questions about shortstop for the first time in nearly 2 decades, if they're prepared to cut bait with their aging captain, bringing in a lefthanded power hitter to replace Jeter is probably going to be the way to go. That's going to help ameliorate the dampening effect if any of the QO.

 

Would not be shocked if both Nava and Drew wound up as Mets next year since they're players the Sox are looking to possibly move on from, that fill needs in that organization -- but overall I'm still calling Drew to the Yankees as an attempt to replace Jeter's lost production, at least to an extent.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Dojji

[marklmw]

I doubt it. you're trying to read too many jumps ahead of the narrative Mark, to be honest it's getting a bit annoying.

 

Right now, I'd still put my money on the Sox FO putting a QO down on Drew, on that QO having a limited effect on his asking price, but no shortage of teams unafraid to pay the extra price to bring in a shortstop who can help the team win on both sides of the ball. That's the common sense narrative, the narrative that yes, Drew comes with an additional risk, but a 3 or 4 year deal for a shortstop in his early 30's with power, speed, and defensive skill is worth that risk.

 

If Drew asks for 6 years he's going to be disappointed, but if he's looking for a 3 year deal he'll have no problem finding one. both New York teams have their own reasons to bid for his services, the Mets are a real shortstop and a decent LF away from putting up some winning seasons again, and the Yankees are going to ask themselves hard questions about shortstop for the first time in nearly 2 decades, if they're prepared to cut bait with their aging captain, bringing in a lefthanded power hitter to replace Jeter is probably going to be the way to go. That's going to help ameliorate the dampening effect if any of the QO.

 

Would not be shocked if both Nava and Drew wound up as Mets next year since they're players the Sox are looking to possibly move on from, that fill needs in that organization -- but overall I'm still calling Drew to the Yankees as an attempt to replace Jeter's lost production, at least to an extent.

 

If you find it annoying just move on. And tell me exactly why the Sox are going to part with Nava? I am all ears

[Dojji]

because if we lose Ellsbury we NEED a backup outfielder who plays centerfield. Gomes and Carp can cover the left field platoon, but we can't have 3 backup left fielders on the team.

[marklmw]

because if we lose Ellsbury we NEED a backup outfielder who plays centerfield. Gomes and Carp can cover the left field platoon, but we can't have 3 backup left fielders on the team.

 

Carp is not a great glove ... you would prefer him over Nava?

[Bellhorn04]

because if we lose Ellsbury we NEED a backup outfielder who plays centerfield. Gomes and Carp can cover the left field platoon, but we can't have 3 backup left fielders on the team.

 

If you assume Ellsbury being replaced by Bradley, it'll be the same situation as this year. Victorino would be backup CF.

[redsoxfan3]

because if we lose Ellsbury we NEED a backup outfielder who plays centerfield. Gomes and Carp can cover the left field platoon, but we can't have 3 backup left fielders on the team.

 

Gomes and Carp in LF. Nava in RF. Victorino in CF.

 

Nava can be a backup CF in an emergency. He only played there once in his career, but like I said, he could play there in an emergency. Bradley also can play CF. Assuming he starts the year in AAA, he is just a call away if we need a true CF for an extended period of time.

 

The flexibility isn't that bad. Nava, Carp, and Gomes can all play LF. Victorino can play CF. Nava and Victorino can play RF. I assume Bradley can play in RF on a consistent basis. We already know he can play LF and CF.

 

If we look internally for a CF replacement, I don't think it is a dire need to get just a backup CF. If we only carry four outfielders, then Bradley is only a call away. If we choose to carry 5 outfielders and Victorino plays in about the same amount of games as he did last year, that means that Bradley would get roughly 40 starts in CF and would be able to pick up some games in RF and LF. Probably more in RF to give Nava some games off. The big question is if Bradley will be ready to be on the MLB roster to start the year (which is impacted by whether we resign Ellsbury).

 

Obviously, we should go after Ellsbury. If not, BC will explore FA and trade options for a RF and/or CF, preferably someone who can play both. Worst case scenario is that we do not sign or trade for another OF, which brings up the Bradley situation. I am all for trying to sign Carlos Beltran to play in RF, meaning we have a similar situation in LF as we did this year.

 

That would allow Victorino to move to CF. Nava, Carp, and Gomes in LF. Nava picks up some games in RF, and we use him or Beltran in an emergency in CF. Bradley is still an option as a CF if Victorino goes on the DL. We are not in a bad situation. In my opinion, we are fortunate to have the depth that we do, even with potentially losing a great leadoff hitter.

 

Defensively, I know that Nava is not the ideal RF, but he will be able to get more practice there in Spring Training. He did start 51 games in RF this year.

Edited October 22, 2013 by redsoxfan3

[User Name]

Nava is brutal in RF. He is simply not an option there for any extended period of time.

[redsoxfan3]

Nava is brutal in RF. He is simply not an option there for any extended period of time.

 

That was my only concern after posting that. I didn't put too much thought (obviously) into Nava in RF. The only real option is to start Bradley in CF and Victorino in RF.

 

I was putting too much emphasis on Nava possibly getting more exposure there in Spring Training, but even with more reps in RF, we still either need Victorino there or to trade or pickup a FA if Bradley is not ready to start in the majors.

[mvp 78]

Nava is brutal in RF. He is simply not an option there for any extended period of time.

 

He'd be a solid backup in CF though!

[sk7326]

Drew to the Cardinals makes a lot more sense - there is no incumbent, and he can help them. Yanks are desperately thin organizationally, so the idea to move on from The Captain - especially with a stopgap guy like Drew - for a 1st rounder seems unlikely.

 

Of the four Red Sox FAs, the probability of a QO goes (from most likely to least): Ellsbury, Napoli, Salty, Drew. They will be happy to have Ellsbury return, but I suspect are ready to let Bradley take the next step if something can't happen. Only 9 QOs were given out across the league last year - so the number will be smaller than it looks. At the same time, teams have fewer ways to spend money - and there is a ton of money out there, that there could be some impact there.

[marklmw]

Drew to the Cardinals makes a lot more sense - there is no incumbent, and he can help them. Yanks are desperately thin organizationally, so the idea to move on from The Captain - especially with a stopgap guy like Drew - for a 1st rounder seems unlikely.

 

Of the four Red Sox FAs, the probability of a QO goes (from most likely to least): Ellsbury, Napoli, Salty, Drew. They will be happy to have Ellsbury return, but I suspect are ready to let Bradley take the next step if something can't happen. Only 9 QOs were given out across the league last year - so the number will be smaller than it looks. At the same time, teams have fewer ways to spend money - and there is a ton of money out there, that there could be some impact there.

 

It would be amazing to pick up 3-4 high draft picks in the process and have JBJ and Lavarnway fill in the holes left behind. With Middlebooks batting .279 with 35 HR's. Bogaerts being named 2014 AL Rookie of the Year and being named to the 2014 All Star Team.

[Dojji]

I just don't think the worst case scenario when it comes to qualifying Drew, is worth contemplating as A Bad Thing. If he accepts, we get another year of a very proficient 2 way shortstop. If we have an embarrassment of riches at shortstop of all positions, wouldn't that be a great change from where we were even last year?

 

And if Drew rejects the QO, but it retards his asking price? I'd expect Cherington to be in on trying to bring Drew back in for another year or two. Depth is a good thing.

[sk7326]

Depth is a good thing - all that is being discussed is how much should it cost. The team that we get Aug 1, 2014 will not be the one that leaves Fort Myers - there is a time for this stuff to get solved, and for the kids to conclusively address things. The QOs will go to guys they definitely want back or guys who definitely ARE NOT accepting it. (or at least that is what the game theory would indicate) Ellsbury is obviously the 2nd category, Napoli is obviously the first. I suspect Salty is in the former category as well. Drew will be an interesting one, and the one that has the most intrigue on either side.

[mvp 78]

You don't have $13M contracts for "depth."

[Dojji]

No, but you do have top prospects for depth, and it's no bad thing to bring in a professional for another year in front of a hot top prospect to avoid overexposing them or relying on them too much. I don't think anything's going to go wrong with bogaerts, but if keeping Drew around for another year and letting them kind of ease Bogaerts into full time ball is the worst case scenario when it comes to offering Drew a QO, that's no bad thing.

[mvp 78]

Do you want him back for only one year now? You just said "another year or two" a little while ago.

 

Bringing Drew in would only make sense if he had positional flexibility. He doesn't.

[Dojji]

that's only true if you're 100% committed to giviing Bogaerts the starting SS job. Since Bogaerts himself IS positionally flexible, it's a non-problem.

 

I have little doubt that Drew would get the job done at either second or third, but he's good enough at shortstop that it would be dumb to ask him to if the choice was him or Bogaerts -- who isn't awful himself, but Drew is the better shortstop of the two at this point.

 

And finding a top SS is hard enough that I'm not bothered if keeping him is the worst possible fallout of QO-ing him. Personally I'd love keeping him around for a few years -- I just don't think it's likely. if Bogaerts forces our hand in midseason by being ungodly awesome, it's not going to be hard to find a team that would trade for Drew on a 1 year deal.

Edited October 23, 2013 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

It's so hard to find one that he fell into their lap last offseason.

[Dojji]

in the same way and for the same reasons that Adrian Beltre did.

[mvp 78]

And they could have resigned Beltre, but failed to do so. Difference being, Beltre is a fringe HOF candidate while Drew is an average starting ss.

[Dojji]

3 WAR is average now? Nice to know.

 

hardly the first time he played at that level either. before he got hurt he was generally between 2.9 and 4.

 

I get the love for Bogaerts. I do. but trying to make the case that Drew is an average shortstop as part of an argument to move him on and hand Bogaerts the full time starting SS job is an exercise in self-deception.

[sk7326]

Drew is a good to very good SS blocking a guy who is part of the future plans. Yes Bogaerts is not a sure thing (but then again, aren't we all), but is there any reason for him not to get big boy ABs? Playing twice a week doesn't really cut it - you're better off getting him everyday reps at Pawtucket instead. I am not sure Drew wants to be a part-timer either. He's 30 with an injury history - but definitely good enough to not necessarily want to get into the Crash Davis "grizzled veteran" portion of his career yet.

 

I defended him in the debate vs Iglesias - the Red Sox did the absolute right thing. But Bogaerts has shown conclusively to me - not that he's going to be a star next year, but that he is worth plugging in and having strong conviction about it. And I feel the same way about Bradley (albeit with less confidence) going into next season at CF.

[User Name]

3 WAR is average now? Nice to know.

 

hardly the first time he played at that level either. before he got hurt he was generally between 2.9 and 4.

I get the love for Bogaerts. I do. but trying to make the case that Drew is an average shortstop as part of an argument to move him on and hand Bogaerts the full time starting SS job is an exercise in self-deception.

 

Using the clearly inferior BB-REF formula in this instance, because it happens to suit your argument.

 

What i would like to know is how you come upon the following thought process:

 

"s***** minor league or Royals player, must pine for him with all my strength regardless of evidence that shows how crappy the player is and how much i am ridiculed on site".

 

Then turn around and:

 

"Red Sox top prospect or elite free agent, must pine against him with all my strength regardless of evidence that shows how great this player is/will be and how much i am ridiculed on site".

 

Seriously?

 

Don't get me wrong. I like Drew, and i've been one of his strongest defenders on this board, but you don't block Bogaerts and move him off his natural position for him. You also don't block WMB and sell low on him for Drew. He's good, but he has platoon issues and he is fragile. If he had a bit more positional flexibility he could stay, but he doesn't. Your idea that he could play other positions competently is based upon nothing but the massive boner you're sporting for him. Please stop.