Mike Napoli performance thread.

[User Name]

Oh he is ... no significant platoon spirit, gets on base at a good clip - obviously most raw power on the team. He is a bit of a "three true outcomes" sort of guy - but from a hitter's perspective, how you make outs really doesn't matter at all.

 

Funny you say that, since he has mostly been exactly that against the Yankees this year. XBH, walk or K.

[sk7326]

I think you had better do a search on Abreu ... Granted that he has not played one game in MLB but his upside is off the charts. No MLB team is going to show their cards with respect to Abreu but most wish that they were in Boston's shoes.

We can talk all day about Napoli but Napoli is not going to take the same contact that he had this season. He has done enough good things and any QO will not be incentive based like this 2013 contract. Sox will sign Abreu and that leaves Napoli off the team.

 

Here is thing about the QO decision ... Step 1: If he took it, would it f-up your plans? ... Step 2: Would there be a significant chance he would decline it? (which of course depends on his evaluation of the market for his services with the pick penalty)

 

For Napoli, Step 1 is basically no - you get a guy who'd you'd be happy to start on an exactly fair price. Step 2: Also a yes, because he can probably get multiple years from somebody (with at least that money in terms of reachable upside)

 

So to me the Red Sox can give him a QO without losing any sleep. Would it affect the Abreu pursuit? Not really - at the end of the day they can afford to lose a bidding war for a 1B.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Oh he is ... no significant platoon spirit, gets on base at a good clip - obviously most raw power on the team. He is a bit of a "three true outcomes" sort of guy - but from a hitter's perspective, how you make outs really doesn't matter at all.

 

Okay, lets talk more into detail shall we? Go look up the stats for Carp, Gomes, and Nava vs Napoli. Napoli's not even a top 1st baseman in the league. I don't understand why you think he could be better than 3 players overall.

[User Name]

Because neither Carp nor Nava can hit lefties, and Nava and Gomes are awful at 1B. Napoli has been just "slightly above average" this season, but the certainty of his numbers combined with a palatable price make him a very solid option.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Don't let my post fool you. I don't want to make it seem like Napoli is a scrub, but compared to three role players I think it'd be harder to outplay them. That;'s just my opinion though.

[sk7326]

Okay, lets talk more into detail shall we? Go look up the stats for Carp, Gomes, and Nava vs Napoli. Napoli's not even a top 1st baseman in the league. I don't understand why you think he could be better than 3 players overall.

 

I did. Sticking with Fangraphs, just because I am too lazy to check out Baseball Reference:

 

Gomes, 0.7 fWAR, .332 wOBA, .230/.340/.418 ... 347 PAs

Carp, 1.2 fWAR, .395 wOBA, .306/.372/.549 ... 218 PAs

Nava, 1.9 fWAR, .370 wOBA, .306/.392/.452 ... 493 PAs

 

Napoli 3.5 fWAR, .366 wOBA, .262/.357/.485 ... 546 PAs

 

Effectively Napoli has been twice as effective as the Carp-Gomes combination (add up plate appearances and they are roughly comparable). Nava and Napoli are more comparable, though Napoli's ability to slug makes up for Nava's better on base ability. And relative to their positions, defensively this year has been no comparison - Napoli has been a downright above average 1B, while Nava has been a poor corner outfielder.

 

Of course Napoli is better than 2 role players ... in a land with finite roster spots, why use two guys for one guy's job? Even if Gomes/Carp were equal together to Napoli at 1B, why would you split the job if you don't have to? Now, I advocate splitting the job if you can't find a full time stud. But if you can't and Napoli does it for a very fair price, and no long term commitment, so much the better.

 

I think it is clear Napoli's 2010 is one giant flashing neon "fluke". What he is this year is probably who he is - basically the best beer league softball player you've ever seen. But that is a valuable guy - and I think with guys like him, fans see all those strikeouts and confuse it with him not being good. I call it the Bellhorn Syndrome jokingly. We're so conditioned by little league and silly things managers said in the 1980s that strikeouts are this horrible travesty when they are just outs.

[Palodios]

Here is thing about the QO decision ... Step 1: If he took it, would it f-up your plans? ... Step 2: Would there be a significant chance he would decline it? (which of course depends on his evaluation of the market for his services with the pick penalty)

 

For Napoli, Step 1 is basically no - you get a guy who'd you'd be happy to start on an exactly fair price. Step 2: Also a yes, because he can probably get multiple years from somebody (with at least that money in terms of reachable upside)

 

So to me the Red Sox can give him a QO without losing any sleep. Would it affect the Abreu pursuit? Not really - at the end of the day they can afford to lose a bidding war for a 1B.

 

At this point, does anyone think a QO would be a bad idea? Unless BC has a hardon for Abreu, the offer is a no-brainer.

[sk7326]

At this point, does anyone think a QO would be a bad idea? Unless BC has a hardon for Abreu, the offer is a no-brainer.

 

Napoli's QO is a no-brainer ... Drew's QO I think is a no-go ... and Salty I could argue both sides though I'd prefer not to

[jacksonianmarch]

I would think it'd be the other way around. Drew will be the best FA SS out there, a $13 mil QO is gonna get turned down. For Napoli, they got a good deal on him this season, but with his hips the way they are and the fact that he's one year older, there'd be a good chance he accepts. I think the sox go all out for Abreu and if they lose out on him, they could probably bring Nap back for 2 yrs $18-20 mil or so and save some dough

[sk7326]

I would think it'd be the other way around. Drew will be the best FA SS out there, a $13 mil QO is gonna get turned down. For Napoli, they got a good deal on him this season, but with his hips the way they are and the fact that he's one year older, there'd be a good chance he accepts. I think the sox go all out for Abreu and if they lose out on him, they could probably bring Nap back for 2 yrs $18-20 mil or so and save some dough

 

If Drew turns down a QO, then it means that he becomes a free agent + your first round pick. That severely narrows the market for him. Basically it's a team like the Mariners who won't have to cede a pick. Given the gambles he and Boras saw Bourn and Lohse lose out on this offseason - he'll almost certainly take the deal and the Red Sox would then have a $14M block of Bogaerts (or a $14M utility player).

 

Napoli has no such problem. He turns down the QO, he is betting he can find someone to guarantee him something like 2/20 and not worry as much about the pick. That is not wildly unlikely. He takes the QO, the Red Sox have their starting 1B then - on a perfect deal, and he's not blocking anybody.

[seabeachfred]

Don't let my post fool you. I don't want to make it seem like Napoli is a scrub, but compared to three role players I think it'd be harder to outplay them. That;'s just my opinion though.

 

I keep hearing from you how you hate the Yankees, yet you seem to underrate him as a player. Well the fact is he will wind up with about 25 homers this season and close to 100 RBI's, and a serial killer against the Yankees. One thing Cherington is going to have to be very careful about this winter is who to keep and who to let go. We have a tremendous chemistry on the ball club, a solid clubhouse and a very successful team up to now. I'd be very careful about breaking it up, especially since we don't know how some of those young prospects are going to do. Thumbs up on Bogearts but serious doubts about Bradley's ability to hit Major League pitching for example.

[Bellhorn04]

I keep hearing from you how you hate the Yankees, yet you seem to underrate him as a player. Well the fact is he will wind up with about 25 homers this season and close to 100 RBI's, and a serial killer against the Yankees.

 

Us older fans seem to place a lot more importance on a Sox player's performance against the Yanks. Over the years that has often been used by old-school type Sox fans as a measure of a Red Sox player's ability to perform under pressure or 'under the bright lights'. Younger fans don't buy into that stuff as much.

[marklmw]

At this point, does anyone think a QO would be a bad idea? Unless BC has a hardon for Abreu, the offer is a no-brainer.

 

I will be somewhat surprised if BC does not have a hardon for Abreu. If Abreu was in Pawtucket mashing 35 hr's do you really think he would be making a QO to Napoli. I seriously doubt that Napoli will receive a QO. Remember that Napoli signed for $5m this season with incentives. A QO cannot be structured with incentives. What exactly has changed? This is not Napoli's best season is it? Napoli' health condition has not been upgraded has it? Even if Abreu was not in the mix why would the Sox offer Napoli a QO? Do you think that teams are going to be lined up to sign him to a multi-year deal greater than 14m per? Thank God that Napoli's health has not been an issue but you know it is serious if the Sox were able to go from 39m / 3 year deal to a 5m / 1 with incentives. What team is going to sign Napoli and give up a pick? Do not get me wrong I like Napoli.

 

I doubt that Drew will get a QO from Boston as well. Will a team want to part with a draft pick to sign him to a multi-year deal? Again, I am a Drew fan but not over Bogaerts. Bogaerts has proven (although with a small sample size) that he has the ability to be the Sox long term solution at SS that the club has been searching for. You cannot pay that kind of money to Drew to be a back-up to Bogaerts. You cannot continue to be moving Bogaerts between short and third. From what I have seen Bogaerts has made some nice plays at short and has a strong arm and good range. The Sox can have a nice infield with Abreu, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Salty and for an average salary of

 

The Sox will sign Salty to a 3 year deal. Sox have plenty of Offense with this club ... they have to spend their resources on pitching.

[mvp 78]

Lester/Buch/Lackey/Peavy/Dempster, they are already spending a ton on pitching, unless you want to overpay for relievers...

[Palodios]

I will be somewhat surprised if BC does not have a hardon for Abreu. If Abreu was in Pawtucket mashing 35 hr's do you really think he would be making a QO to Napoli.

 

Remember when Lavarnway hit 34 home runs between AA, AAA and Boston in 2011? Sometimes skills don't necessarily translate. Napoli is a sure thing, and that is key here.

[marklmw]

Remember when Lavarnway hit 34 home runs between AA, AAA and Boston in 2011? Sometimes skills don't necessarily translate. Napoli is a sure thing, and that is key here.

No doubt ... but you said it best ... If BC goes after Abreu and signs him then Napoli is the odd man out. If the Sox do not get Abreu they might offer Napoli a similar deal that he signed for 2013 but a QO if accepted changes the terms in Napoli's favor if his health takes a turn for the worse.

[mvp 78]

Uh, well QO's have to be made within 5 days of the season ending. No way is Abreu signed by then.

[Orange Juiced]

Uh, well QO's have to be made within 5 days of the season ending. No way is Abreu signed by then.

 

The question is: If Napoli finishes with 25 hr, 100 rbi (roughly), and a 125 ops+, would he even sign a QO? Wouldn't some team out there be willing to give him a 2-year deal? He's only 31. I could see a team offering him a 2/24 deal, and wouldn't that be tempting for him as opposed to a 1/13 QO?

 

And if you want Abreu, and Napoli takes the QO, you've just got to work things out for one year. I think you could mix and match Napoli at 1b (sharing time with Abreu), a little backup C (spelling Salty/Ross), and some DH (giving Papi a rest). I bet you could find 300+ ab for Napoli that way. It's probably not worth $13 million, but it's just for one year, and it's nice to have that kind of RH power available. So it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have that situation, frankly.

[marklmw]

The question is: If Napoli finishes with 25 hr, 100 rbi (roughly), and a 125 ops+, would he even sign a QO? Wouldn't some team out there be willing to give him a 2-year deal? He's only 31. I could see a team offering him a 2/24 deal, and wouldn't that be tempting for him as opposed to a 1/13 QO?

 

And if you want Abreu, and Napoli takes the QO, you've just got to work things out for one year. I think you could mix and match Napoli at 1b (sharing time with Abreu), a little backup C (spelling Salty/Ross), and some DH (giving Papi a rest). I bet you could find 300+ ab for Napoli that way. It's probably not worth $13 million, but it's just for one year, and it's nice to have that kind of RH power available. So it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have that situation, frankly.

 

The Sox would not give Napoli a 2/24 deal last year what has changed? Now you think that a team is going to give him a 2/24 and also give up their daft pick. I highly doubt this will happen. If the Sox sign Abreu it may cost close to 12 - 14M per so I doubt the Sox will want to pay another 13M for Napoli ... that will be 25 - 27M for 1st base position. Carp or Nava can spell Abreu for a lot less and against right handed pitching. Abreu bats from the right side like Napoli.

[marklmw]

Another thing to consider about Qualifying Offers is that they do hurt the player in some instances. With Drew and Napoli a QO from Boston makes it more difficult to find a new contact with another club as the club may feel that it is not worth sacrificing a top draft pick to sign that player. Boston can be nice guys by not offering QO's on Napoli and Drew. In fact behind the scenes the agents of these players may be pleading on their clients behalf not to make the QO. These situations are not as cut and dry as you would think. With Salty for example a QO makes perfect sense while Boston works on signing him to a multi-year extension.

[marklmw]

Uh, well QO's have to be made within 5 days of the season ending. No way is Abreu signed by then.

You are right ... a deal with Abreu may not get done until the end of the summer ... who knows really ... however I am sure that Boston's ownership has some friends in high places in the US Government to speed things along. Napoli may want to stay in Boston even if he does not receive a QO from Boston. Of course Boston does risk losing him but I am sure that there will be many back room discussions between both sides. They managed to deal with a Napoli's health situation before and they can again. Napoli's health situation has not been upgraded. It is not the type of health situation that heals like a broken bone.

[dupree]

The question is: If Napoli finishes with 25 hr, 100 rbi (roughly), and a 125 ops+, would he even sign a QO? Wouldn't some team out there be willing to give him a 2-year deal? He's only 31. I could see a team offering him a 2/24 deal, and wouldn't that be tempting for him as opposed to a 1/13 QO?

 

And if you want Abreu, and Napoli takes the QO, you've just got to work things out for one year. I think you could mix and match Napoli at 1b (sharing time with Abreu), a little backup C (spelling Salty/Ross), and some DH (giving Papi a rest). I bet you could find 300+ ab for Napoli that way. It's probably not worth $13 million, but it's just for one year, and it's nice to have that kind of RH power available. So it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have that situation, frankly.

Agreed. I feel like BC will sign Nap to a 2 year deal. The strikeouts are a killer, and from what ive read about Abreu he is projected to be a masher but also have about the same line as Nap. Then you go back to the argument that Abreu hasnt proven anything here and Nap has. Im under the mindset that Nap has been big for us and caught fire at times and carried this team, I know Abreu is younger but still the team chemistry and moving Nap out for a guy that is unproven and could strikeout just as much, I think its best to leave this team alone and resign Nap. We all know what Nap is like on a team with the whole team supporting the beards and seeing all the guys loose and having fun. I just worry about bringing Abreu in and him acting as a cancer like AGon did and hurting worse than helping. Id stay with the safe bet offer him a QO and try to extend it to a 2 year deal. Let the A's sign Abreu and see what Billy Beane can get out of the kid or the Marlins they need him more than anything and prolly will go hard after him if they dont they should just become a Triple A team.

[Orange Juiced]

Agreed. I feel like BC will sign Nap to a 2 year deal. The strikeouts are a killer, and from what ive read about Abreu he is projected to be a masher but also have about the same line as Nap. Then you go back to the argument that Abreu hasnt proven anything here and Nap has. Im under the mindset that Nap has been big for us and caught fire at times and carried this team, I know Abreu is younger but still the team chemistry and moving Nap out for a guy that is unproven and could strikeout just as much, I think its best to leave this team alone and resign Nap. We all know what Nap is like on a team with the whole team supporting the beards and seeing all the guys loose and having fun. I just worry about bringing Abreu in and him acting as a cancer like AGon did and hurting worse than helping. Id stay with the safe bet offer him a QO and try to extend it to a 2 year deal. Let the A's sign Abreu and see what Billy Beane can get out of the kid or the Marlins they need him more than anything and prolly will go hard after him if they dont they should just become a Triple A team.

 

Well I really want Abreu. But I'm fine with offering Napoli the QO, and if he doesn't sign, fine, you get a valuable draft pick. And if he does sign, then you can find a way to get him 300+ ab and have a really sweet RH power bat off the bench in the playoffs. Or, if Abreu struggles, then Napoli plays more and you use Abreu as the RH power bat off the bench.

[sk7326]

I will be somewhat surprised if BC does not have a hardon for Abreu. If Abreu was in Pawtucket mashing 35 hr's do you really think he would be making a QO to Napoli. I seriously doubt that Napoli will receive a QO. Remember that Napoli signed for $5m this season with incentives. A QO cannot be structured with incentives. What exactly has changed? This is not Napoli's best season is it? Napoli' health condition has not been upgraded has it? Even if Abreu was not in the mix why would the Sox offer Napoli a QO? Do you think that teams are going to be lined up to sign him to a multi-year deal greater than 14m per? Thank God that Napoli's health has not been an issue but you know it is serious if the Sox were able to go from 39m / 3 year deal to a 5m / 1 with incentives. What team is going to sign Napoli and give up a pick? Do not get me wrong I like Napoli.

 

I doubt that Drew will get a QO from Boston as well. Will a team want to part with a draft pick to sign him to a multi-year deal? Again, I am a Drew fan but not over Bogaerts. Bogaerts has proven (although with a small sample size) that he has the ability to be the Sox long term solution at SS that the club has been searching for. You cannot pay that kind of money to Drew to be a back-up to Bogaerts. You cannot continue to be moving Bogaerts between short and third. From what I have seen Bogaerts has made some nice plays at short and has a strong arm and good range. The Sox can have a nice infield with Abreu, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Salty and for an average salary of

 

The Sox will sign Salty to a 3 year deal. Sox have plenty of Offense with this club ... they have to spend their resources on pitching.

 

I doubt Napoli can get 3/39 from the open market, especially with a 1st rounder. But he is pretty clearly the top domestic free agent 1B. (you could argue Kendrys Morales as possibly the only one close) While I agree there won't be teams lining up to give him $14/yr long term - he should not have that much trouble finding a team that will guarantee more than $14M of his contract, whatever the terms are. Would you pay $14M for 1 year of Napoli at a 2013 level? Without a doubt. Also, I think the Red Sox would be fine with him coming back to be their 1B - Abreu is interesting, but the Red Sox have laid out for a 1B in his "prime" before and it did not go amazingly. It's not a requirement for this team to be good.

[marklmw]

Lester/Buch/Lackey/Peavy/Dempster, they are already spending a ton on pitching, unless you want to overpay for relievers...

Do you think that Boston will need to pay more on their bullpen than they paid this season? Some pen money is coming off the books but that money will still be used for the same purpose. Dempster will most likely be dealt to a NL team and Boston will gladly eat some of his contract. Boston has some arms in the Minors that could be used in the pen next season at no cost at all. I think that financially the club is in great shape with respect to staying under the cap. Peavy will be back next year but that should do it for his salary. Lester is a big question mark and a lot depends on what he does this post season and next season but word is that he has a good relationship with Farrell. I think that the Sox future has never looked brighter.

[sk7326]

Agreed. I feel like BC will sign Nap to a 2 year deal. The strikeouts are a killer, and from what ive read about Abreu he is projected to be a masher but also have about the same line as Nap. Then you go back to the argument that Abreu hasnt proven anything here and Nap has. Im under the mindset that Nap has been big for us and caught fire at times and carried this team, I know Abreu is younger but still the team chemistry and moving Nap out for a guy that is unproven and could strikeout just as much, I think its best to leave this team alone and resign Nap. We all know what Nap is like on a team with the whole team supporting the beards and seeing all the guys loose and having fun. I just worry about bringing Abreu in and him acting as a cancer like AGon did and hurting worse than helping. Id stay with the safe bet offer him a QO and try to extend it to a 2 year deal. Let the A's sign Abreu and see what Billy Beane can get out of the kid or the Marlins they need him more than anything and prolly will go hard after him if they dont they should just become a Triple A team.

 

Gonzalez wasn't a cancer - he did not invent Kyle Weiland out of thin air. He just declined in ability in 2012 - and we can call it a legit decline because in LA it has not returned. Basically he went from an MVP candidate to Mike Napoli at twice the price. Similarly Napoli's strikeouts aren't that important - they do look bad though.

[dupree]

Well I really want Abreu. But I'm fine with offering Napoli the QO, and if he doesn't sign, fine, you get a valuable draft pick. And if he does sign, then you can find a way to get him 300+ ab and have a really sweet RH power bat off the bench in the playoffs. Or, if Abreu struggles, then Napoli plays more and you use Abreu as the RH power bat off the bench.

I sit on the side of caution with Abreu. I liked your post on how the team should spend its money this offseason and i too believe they should bring Ells back.

The luxury tax is upped this year i believe. And where Boston has been under for the last 2 years doesnt that mean that if they were to exceed the limit doesnt that mean they pay a lower percentage rate for going over as opposed to the teams that year over last year?

[marklmw]

I doubt Napoli can get 3/39 from the open market, especially with a 1st rounder. But he is pretty clearly the top domestic free agent 1B. (you could argue Kendrys Morales as possibly the only one close) While I agree there won't be teams lining up to give him $14/yr long term - he should not have that much trouble finding a team that will guarantee more than $14M of his contract, whatever the terms are. Would you pay $14M for 1 year of Napoli at a 2013 level? Without a doubt. Also, I think the Red Sox would be fine with him coming back to be their 1B - Abreu is interesting, but the Red Sox have laid out for a 1B in his "prime" before and it did not go amazingly. It's not a requirement for this team to be good.

Why would Boston give Napoli a 1 year deal for 14M when they would not give him that same deal last season?

Answer 1: They give it as a reward for Napoli because he played hard the whole season.

Answer 2: At the start of the season they were in a rebuilding mode but now they have the best record in baseball and Napoli is a big part of that.

Answer 3: Napoli's numbers for 2013 season are about what Boston had expected so they will not give him a guaranteed 14m for 2014.

 

The Sox overpaid for AGON based on his 2012 numbers and now his 2013 numbers. Abreu will cost Boston about 40% less than AGON and Abreu could very well out perform AGON. The Sox parted with AGON primarily because they were able to dump the Crawford and Beckett contracts. Boston made out like bandits in the night. AGON was also a bad club house guy. Now comes along Abreu ... like a gift on a silver platter.

[sk7326]

Why would Boston give Napoli a 1 year deal for 14M when they would not give him that same deal last season?

Answer 1: They give it as a reward for Napoli because he played hard the whole season.

Answer 2: At the start of the season they were in a rebuilding mode but now they have the best record in baseball and Napoli is a big part of that.

Answer 3: Napoli's numbers for 2013 season are about what Boston had expected so they will not give him a guaranteed 14m for 2014.

 

The Sox overpaid for AGON based on his 2012 numbers and now his 2013 numbers. Abreu will cost Boston about 40% less than AGON and Abreu could very well out perform AGON. The Sox parted with AGON primarily because they were able to dump the Crawford and Beckett contracts. Boston made out like bandits in the night. AGON was also a bad club house guy. Now comes along Abreu ... like a gift on a silver platter.

 

The Red Sox traded for Gonzalez - a 28 year old coming off of all-star/near MVP sort of seasons with the idea that they'd get 3 or 4 more of those seasons. That was a solid bet - but the problem is that since Gonzalez (like Abreu) is a big lumbering 1B who is not a great athlete and pretty slow (even if they can defend the heck out of 1B), is that any slippage offensively destroys his value very quickly. Abreu is younger but profiles very similarly too. There is a pretty strong downside - the scouting reports online indicate "average bat speed" (eek!) and he is already Cespedes' age without the athletic upside (let alone that of Puig), and neither of those guys just rolled out of bed and into the big leagues immediately - in some of the same sorts of ways. As far as I can tell, the clubhouse stuff is more writer-inspired fluff.

[marklmw]

The Red Sox traded for Gonzalez - a 28 year old coming off of all-star/near MVP sort of seasons with the idea that they'd get 3 or 4 more of those seasons. That was a solid bet - but the problem is that since Gonzalez (like Abreu) is a big lumbering 1B who is not a great athlete and pretty slow (even if they can defend the heck out of 1B), is that any slippage offensively destroys his value very quickly. Abreu is younger but profiles very similarly too. There is a pretty strong downside - the scouting reports online indicate "average bat speed" (eek!) and he is already Cespedes' age without the athletic upside (let alone that of Puig), and neither of those guys just rolled out of bed and into the big leagues immediately - in some of the same sorts of ways. As far as I can tell, the clubhouse stuff is more writer-inspired fluff.

 

I read some place that Abreu began as a short stop ... meaning that he was the best fielder and best athlete on his team during his younger years. Seems as though he out grew short and then out grew 3rd base and finally landing at first. I would imagine that most MLB players played short on their little league team but this guy was in the Cuban National Program. Have you seen the videos on this guy?

I would like to qualify my position on Abreu ... I want Abreu in Boston if he makes the grade with the Organizations scouts. If they do not think that he is the real deal then I accept that. If they feel that he is worth signing then so be it.