The Lester - Meyers trade that wasn't made!

[Bellhorn04]

This thread was never about who was, is or will be better Lester or Shields.

 

You said in your opening post that you think KC would have preferred Lester over Shields. That's what's being disagreed with. Other people are arguing that KC would prefer Shields and here's why.

[User Name]

Listen Trickey Dick ... The story was covered and it only died after Meyers went to Tampa ... sometimes the GM gets a man crush on a player. Happened with Lugo. Keep on eye on Meyers .... and we can let it die. Because not matter what I say you have to be a jerk and act all pompous.

 

Yes, because when confronted with facts that contradict one's opinion (like the fact that this was a non-story from the Red Sox perspective), the other person is being pompous. Lol ok internet tough guy.

[User Name]

You said in your opening post that you think KC would have preferred Lester over Shields. That's what's being disagreed with. Other people are arguing that KC would prefer Shields and here's why.

 

This.

[marklmw]

You said in your opening post that you think KC would have preferred Lester over Shields. That's what's being disagreed with. Other people are arguing that KC would prefer Shields and here's why.

 

I did not say and here is why ... It just seemed odd to me that the trade was rumored in Boston 9 or 10 days before a deal was made with Tampa. I personally feel that Lester has the stuff and that everything is in his head .... he is a head case .... Shields has never had a year as good as Lester's best.

[marklmw]

Yes, because when confronted with facts that contradict one's opinion (like the fact that this was a non-story from the Red Sox perspective), the other person is being pompous. Lol ok internet tough guy.

 

None of your facts have contradicted my opinion. And from listening to you in just a short time I doubt that much that you say will change my mind about anything ... you are the guy that knows it all ... you make statements and when asked to produce your scouting reports or whatever you say you are referring to you come up with nada.

[User Name]

Jon Lester's best season, 2010: 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 208 IP, 134 ERA+

 

James Shields' best season, 2011: 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 249.1 (!) IP, 134 ERA+

 

How has Shields not had a year "as good as Lester's best". Enlighten me.

[User Name]

None of your facts have contradicted my opinion. And from listening to you in just a short time I doubt that much that you say will change my mind about anything ... you are the guy that knows it all ... you make statements and when asked to produce your scouting reports or whatever you say you are referring to you come up with nada.

 

When lacking in facts, resort to bland rhetoric. Good job. Now that you talk about "producing evidence" how about you produce some of these so-much-talked-about reports about the possibility of a trade between the Red Sox and Royals?

 

And for the record, where did you ask for anything i did not produce? I'd like to see about that.....

[marklmw]

Jon Lester's best season, 2010: 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 208 IP, 134 ERA+

 

James Shields' best season, 2011: 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 249.1 (!) IP, 134 ERA+

 

How has Shields not had a year "as good as Lester's best". Enlighten me.

 

I guess wins and loses do not mean much anymore.

[User Name]

They don't. And they shouldn't. You know what? If you're trying to use wins and losses to defend your argument, let's agree to disagree and move on.

[Orange Juiced]

I did not say and here is why ... It just seemed odd to me that the trade was rumored in Boston 9 or 10 days before a deal was made with Tampa. I personally feel that Lester has the stuff and that everything is in his head .... he is a head case .... Shields has never had a year as good as Lester's best.

 

It's tough to tell which season was Lester's best. Here are the three candidates:

 

2008 - 210.1 ip, 16-6, 3.21 era, 144 era+, 1.27 whip, 6.5 k/9, 6.1 bWAR

2009 - 203.1 ip, 15-8, 3.41 era, 136 era+, 1.23 whip, 10.0 k/9, 6.3 bWAR

2010 - 208.0 ip, 19-9, 3.25 era, 134 era+, 1.20 whip, 9.7 k/9, 5.2 bWAR

 

Here's Shields' likely best season:

 

2011 - 249.1 ip, 16-12, 2.82 era, 134 era+, 1.04 whip, 8.1 k/9, 11 CG, 5.2 bWAR

 

I don't really know how b-ref calculates WAR, because it would seem to me that a lot more innings pitched with a lower whip and a lower era would make a guy more valuable. Here are their fangraphs WARs:

 

Lester

2008 - 5.0

2009 - 6.2

2010 - 5.4

 

Shields

2011 - 4.5

 

So both baseball-reference and fangraphs rate Lester's best seasons as more valuable than Shields'...which again is a mystery to me given that Shields outperformed Lester over more innings pitched. So I can't figure it out.

 

Anyway, my own personal rankings, I'd say that Shields' 2011 season was better than Lester's best season, but both b-ref and fangraphs disagree.

[User Name]

Because the formulas use FIP formulas. And because Shields is HR prone and has always had low BABIPS (IIRC it's also normalized in FG's WAR equation) they both harm Shields in his overall WAR rating.

 

It's hard to argue with 249 IP of 2.82 ERA baseball though.

[marklmw]

When lacking in facts, resort to bland rhetoric. Good job. Now that you talk about "producing evidence" how about you produce some of these so-much-talked-about reports about the possibility of a trade between the Red Sox and Royals?

 

And for the record, where did you ask for anything i did not produce? I'd like to see about that.....

 

Lester's first full year as a starting pitcher was in 2008. Remember how he had to overcome cancer. Let's forget 2012 and compare Lester to Shields from 2008 to 2011.

 

Lester 65 W's 32 L's Cumulative War of 20.7 Now Shields 54 W's 47 L's Cumulative WAR of 8.1

 

Are you still feeling pompous?

[marklmw]

Because the formulas use FIP formulas. And because Shields is HR prone and has always had low BABIPS (IIRC it's also normalized in FG's WAR equation) they both harm Shields in his overall WAR rating.

 

It's hard to argue with 249 IP of 2.82 ERA baseball though.

 

yada yada yada ... in the end we may never know if Tampa wanted Lester or what the asking price for Meyers was ... the bottom line is that KC took one on the chin and Tampa Bay won the lottery.

[marklmw]

Some good reads going back to November 2012

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/11/27/jon-lester-wil-myers-making-sense-dazzling-rum

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/11/27/3698840/boston-red-sox-kansas-city-royals-jon-lester-wil-myers-trade-rumors

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/11/28/3700238/boston-red-sox-jon-lester-wil-myers-kansas-city-royals

 

http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2012/11/trade_winds_pros_cons_potential_jon_lester_for_wil

[User Name]

Lester's first full year as a starting pitcher was in 2008. Remember how he had to overcome cancer. Let's forget 2012 and compare Lester to Shields from 2008 to 2011.

 

Lester 65 W's 32 L's Cumulative War of 20.7 Now Shields 54 W's 47 L's Cumulative WAR of 8.1

 

Are you still feeling pompous?

 

Wins and losses are worthless. And you're conveniently discounting Lester's worst and Shield's second-best season. Well done. So yes, i'm still feeling "pompous" although i think you don't know what that means.

 

As for those reports, i fail to see one where even one report comes from Kansas City. Please find one.

 

The lines of inquiry are fascinating but, for now, theoretical. As Bradford points out, there’s no indication at this time that anything is close to getting done between the two teams. Nonetheless, the questions are sufficiently interesting that it’s worth a more detailed examination.

 

A trade was obviously brewing....

Edited August 6, 2013 by User Name?

[User Name]

yada yada yada ... in the end we may never know if Tampa wanted Lester or what the asking price for Meyers was ... the bottom line is that KC took one on the chin and Tampa Bay won the lottery.

 

You're the one trying to make up the possibility of a trade that wasn't gonna happen bro. We know what they wanted for Myers, because they traded him for what they wanted. That is a fact.

[marklmw]

You're the one trying to make up the possibility of a trade that wasn't gonna happen bro. We know what they wanted for Myers, because they traded him for what they wanted. That is a fact.

 

Again, unless Ben or someone from KC provide more details we will never know will we.

[Spitball]

Shields was coming off a better season and was signed to a better contract going forward. Lester and the Sox were mere pawns in the trade negotiations.

[Dojji]

yada yada yada ... in the end we may never know if Tampa wanted Lester or what the asking price for Meyers was ... the bottom line is that KC took one on the chin and Tampa Bay won the lottery.

 

Considering where KC is in the standings this year, they walk away from the trade smiling. They haven't been this close to contention in a long time, and the rotation Dayton Moore slapped together this past offseason is a huge part of that.

 

The Royals are a serious contender this year. They aren't without James Shields. (also without Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, but I digress)

[win red sox]

Wade Davis was the other piece that went to KC, I have a feeling Doubront was the 2nd piece they were asking for.

[Bellhorn04]

Wade Davis was the other piece that went to KC, I have a feeling Doubront was the 2nd piece they were asking for.

 

Yes, that's the other thing we don't know about. And Doubront is a pretty solid guess on the second pitcher they were asking for.

[Palodios]

Just to be clear, Jake Ordizzi was also part of the trade. He was a top 100 MLB prospect in 2010, 2011, and 2012, so he's not exactly chopped liver... definitely not a guy I'd want to trade 1-for-1 with Wade Davis.

 

If Kansas City was willing to do Meyers + Ordizzi for Shields + Davis, would it be unreasonable to see them trade Meyers for Lester straight up?

[win red sox]

wade davis was coming off a stellar year in relief with a 2.78 fip and over 11k per 9 and plus 3 years of control. Maybe KC thought they could transistion him back to the rotation and those numbers would carry over.

[rjortiz]

Considering where KC is in the standings this year, they walk away from the trade smiling. They haven't been this close to contention in a long time, and the rotation Dayton Moore slapped together this past offseason is a huge part of that.

 

The Royals are a serious contender this year. They aren't without James Shields. (also without Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, but I digress)

 

According to BP, the Royals have a 4% chance to make the playoffs this year. They mortgaged their future to be mediocre in 2013.

[sk7326]

According to BP, the Royals have a 4% chance to make the playoffs this year. They mortgaged their future to be mediocre in 2013.

 

I have not done any real studying - but I do wonder whether a large win "bump" (like if the Royals could get to 83 wins or more) would affect their bottom line enough that the push has some value to them. I don't know. Tells you about the business - the KC owner wants a return on this rebuilding, so his minions have to get him one.

[marklmw]

Just to be clear, Jake Ordizzi was also part of the trade. He was a top 100 MLB prospect in 2010, 2011, and 2012, so he's not exactly chopped liver... definitely not a guy I'd want to trade 1-for-1 with Wade Davis.

 

If Kansas City was willing to do Meyers + Ordizzi for Shields + Davis, would it be unreasonable to see them trade Meyers for Lester straight up?

 

You made a valid point ... It would be nice to know what KC wanted from Boston. I only say this because I think Meyers is the real deal however there is a lot of baseball to be played to know for sure. Lester was once considered to be the real deal as well. There was a time when Tiger breaking Jack's record for Major wins was all but certain and now ... maybe not going to happen.

[SCM33]

Robert Redford sucked at baseball. He's embarrassing in that movie. Air Bud (the greatest athlete of our time) took better hacks in Seventh Inning Fetch.

 

Nothing was more embarrassing than John Goodman in "The Babe". John Goodman was twice the size of Ruth at his biggest, and Goodman was a natural righty. He looked absolutely pathetic portraying the greatest baseball player of all time.

[marklmw]

Nothing was more embarrassing than John Goodman in "The Babe". John Goodman was twice the size of Ruth at his biggest, and Goodman was a natural righty. He looked absolutely pathetic portraying the greatest baseball player of all time.

 

You got that right!

[rjortiz]

I have not done any real studying - but I do wonder whether a large win "bump" (like if the Royals could get to 83 wins or more) would affect their bottom line enough that the push has some value to them. I don't know. Tells you about the business - the KC owner wants a return on this rebuilding, so his minions have to get him one.

 

There's definitely some value to fielding a competitive baseball team, and if the Royals can sustain their momentum, they should be able to sell more tickets in September. Although, they've only seen about an 1,000 seat per game attendance spike.

 

However, Myers has a 2.2 WAR in 47 games, compared to Shields' 2.5 WAR over the full season. You also have to factor in that the Royals gave the awful Jeff Francoeur 191 AB's in RF, who managed to be worse than replacement level. It's reasonable to suggest that the Royals probably would have been better with Myers than with Shields, plus they would have had an extra $12 million to spend on another pitcher. They also would have kept Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery who are decent prospects. All of these players would be making the minimum for the next three years.

 

Instead they are going to have to give Shields a massive contract extension to justify the trade, while Wil Myers develops into an anchor in the Tampa lineup for the minimum. This was an awful trade by the Royals, and it looks worse every passing day.

[marklmw]

There's definitely some value to fielding a competitive baseball team, and if the Royals can sustain their momentum, they should be able to sell more tickets in September. Although, they've only seen about an 1,000 seat per game attendance spike.

 

However, Myers has a 2.2 WAR in 47 games, compared to Shields' 2.5 WAR over the full season. You also have to factor in that the Royals gave the awful Jeff Francoeur 191 AB's in RF, who managed to be worse than replacement level. It's reasonable to suggest that the Royals probably would have been better with Myers than with Shields, plus they would have had an extra $12 million to spend on another pitcher. They also would have kept Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery who are decent prospects. All of these players would be making the minimum for the next three years.

 

Instead they are going to have to give Shields a massive contract extension to justify the trade, while Wil Myers develops into an anchor in the Tampa lineup for the minimum. This was an awful trade by the Royals, and it looks worse every passing day.

 

Will KC be in position to compete for Shields services in 2015? I doubt that they will be.