The Lester - Meyers trade that wasn't made!

[rjortiz]

Will KC be in position to compete for Shields services in 2015? I doubt that they will be.

 

Depends where their payroll is. They only have $41 million on the books for 2014, and $30 million for 2015, but that's before arbitration for key players like Moustakas and Hosmer. I'm guessing Shields could probably get 5/90 on the open market. That might be too rich for KC, unless they push their payroll over $100 million.

[sk7326]

Depends where their payroll is. They only have $41 million on the books for 2014, and $30 million for 2015, but that's before arbitration for key players like Moustakas and Hosmer. I'm guessing Shields could probably get 5/90 on the open market. That might be too rich for KC, unless they push their payroll over $100 million.

 

It's a fairly cheap ownership ... I don't think they can compete for Shields, but I do think they will make a qualifying offer and bet on the draft pick compensation making some teams gun shy. I think Shields will be high on the Red Sox shopping list clearly.

[rjortiz]

It's a fairly cheap ownership ... I don't think they can compete for Shields, but I do think they will make a qualifying offer and bet on the draft pick compensation making some teams gun shy. I think Shields will be high on the Red Sox shopping list clearly.

 

I didn't see he was going to be 33 when he hits free agency. I don't think he'll get five years. I also don't like that his FIP is near 4.00.

[Behindenemylines]

When it comes down to big $$$$ (Shields) and young players (Myers) the Rays always go with the youth. Their limited budget makes that decision for them.

[sk7326]

I didn't see he was going to be 33 when he hits free agency. I don't think he'll get five years. I also don't like that his FIP is near 4.00.

 

The years will be tough - but the division history is attractive. If you sign him (as Boston), you are not signing him expecting a #1. But his history, his low effort mechanics - you expect a guy who can crank out 200 innings without drama or injury. There is a lot of value there in this market.

 

It's the Jon Lester thing - it's easy to knock the peak, but guys who can crank out 30-35 average-above average starts while never getting hurt is a hard trait to find and something you need in the marathon.

[rjortiz]

The years will be tough - but the division history is attractive. If you sign him (as Boston), you are not signing him expecting a #1. But his history, his low effort mechanics - you expect a guy who can crank out 200 innings without drama or injury. There is a lot of value there in this market.

 

It's the Jon Lester thing - it's easy to knock the peak, but guys who can crank out 30-35 average-above average starts while never getting hurt is a hard trait to find and something you need in the marathon.

 

How much do you think he's worth?

[sk7326]

How much do you think he's worth?

 

If you go with some comps. Edwin Jackson got 4/52 almost entirely because he can provide mid-rotation innings without getting hurt. Dempster got 2/24 for the same reason. Given the usual salary inflation - you figure the salary for sheer "durability" is $14-15. Lester next offseason could ask for 4/60 and not be at all out of his mind. The evaluation of Shields is tough because while you have his crazy consistency and durability - I agree with you about whether he is actually a lights out pitcher. He has pitched in pitcher's parks his whole career and his xFIP numbers are not amazing. I would not hesitate going 4-5 years with him because of his track record of consistency. But yeah, I'd be thinking $16-18.

[rjortiz]

If you go with some comps. Edwin Jackson got 4/52 almost entirely because he can provide mid-rotation innings without getting hurt. Dempster got 2/24 for the same reason. Given the usual salary inflation - you figure the salary for sheer "durability" is $14-15. Lester next offseason could ask for 4/60 and not be at all out of his mind. The evaluation of Shields is tough because while you have his crazy consistency and durability - I agree with you about whether he is actually a lights out pitcher. He has pitched in pitcher's parks his whole career and his xFIP numbers are not amazing. I would not hesitate going 4-5 years with him because of his track record of consistency. But yeah, I'd be thinking $16-18.

 

4/68 seems about right for a 33 year old pitcher with his track record.

[marklmw]

Dempster & Peavy ... the Sox are spending a lot of money on average Joe's. I think it is a good methodology to stockpile pitching prospects with your top draft picks. Make's you scratch your head over the Deven Marrero pick.

[sk7326]

Dempster & Peavy ... the Sox are spending a lot of money on average Joe's. I think it is a good methodology to stockpile pitching prospects with your top draft picks. Make's you scratch your head over the Deven Marrero pick.

 

Merrero was a value play where they picked him. Middle infielder, had a rough season but was valued by the industry before then (why JBJ slipped), in a program which has a phenomenal track record producing pros.

 

Red Sox have clearly seen a bit of risk in taking pitchers early - and high school arms are the riskiest demographic of them all. Also add that the Sox have very rarely drafted in the spots where really high upside-low risk sort of pitchers have resided. They had that chance this year, and indeed took a live high school arm. As Barnes, Ranaudo showed - they do not fear the starting pitcher but find the earliest draft spots to be better places for position players where they normally draft. And given their ability to manipulate bonuses - they have more flexibility than other teams. (it is one of the fun quirks of the new CBA that the draft rules changes hurt the teams like Tampa)

 

Red Sox have under Theo and Jed, definitely placed a priority on great athletes with their draft picks - even toolsy guys like Middlebrooks, who was a two sport kid who clearly needed polish. Often this involves guys in the middle of the field just because that's where your best athletes tend to end up. And given their system and where they often pick - this seems like an admin that clearly values upside and tools over pure probability.

[marklmw]

Merrero was a value play where they picked him. Middle infielder, had a rough season but was valued by the industry before then (why JBJ slipped), in a program which has a phenomenal track record producing pros.

 

Red Sox have clearly seen a bit of risk in taking pitchers early - and high school arms are the riskiest demographic of them all. Also add that the Sox have very rarely drafted in the spots where really high upside-low risk sort of pitchers have resided. They had that chance this year, and indeed took a live high school arm. As Barnes, Ranaudo showed - they do not fear the starting pitcher but find the earliest draft spots to be better places for position players where they normally draft. And given their ability to manipulate bonuses - they have more flexibility than other teams. (it is one of the fun quirks of the new CBA that the draft rules changes hurt the teams like Tampa)

 

Red Sox have under Theo and Jed, definitely placed a priority on great athletes with their draft picks - even toolsy guys like Middlebrooks, who was a two sport kid who clearly needed polish. Often this involves guys in the middle of the field just because that's where your best athletes tend to end up. And given their system and where they often pick - this seems like an admin that clearly values upside and tools over pure probability.

 

I suppose that they have to fill positions in the minors as well.

[Behindenemylines]

Creating depth at a position in the minors allows you make trades to fill wholes that you may have. At the time Marrero ceiling might have looked high and being a plus defensive SS raises his value as well. If Bogaerts takes off he becomes a trading chip like Iggy was. If Bogaerts out grows the position then you have another solid defensive SS.

[sk7326]

I suppose that they have to fill positions in the minors as well.

 

They do - but you don't use high picks for that stuff. They are looking for star potential - and they can afford to since you can always find roster filler. It means that a lot of guys might miss - or be more trade bait. But a system without actual upside and just a bunch of future Mike Carps ain't doing anything for your big league future either.

 

Org has a lot of live arms - there are very few aces period out there, and the Sox are almost never in a position to draft one.

[sk7326]

Creating depth at a position in the minors allows you make trades to fill wholes that you may have. At the time Marrero ceiling might have looked high and being a plus defensive SS raises his value as well. If Bogaerts takes off he becomes a trading chip like Iggy was. If Bogaerts out grows the position then you have another solid defensive SS.

 

Shortstops and Center Fielders can always be moved to different positions if they can't stick - drafting them and then seeing what happens is never a bad way to go. It's where your best high school athletes play - and your best college ones often. If you just drafted them (and the hard throwers mixed in) - long term your organization prospect muscle will be solid.

[marklmw]

They do - but you don't use high picks for that stuff. They are looking for star potential - and they can afford to since you can always find roster filler. It means that a lot of guys might miss - or be more trade bait. But a system without actual upside and just a bunch of future Mike Carps ain't doing anything for your big league future either.

 

Org has a lot of live arms - there are very few aces period out there, and the Sox are almost never in a position to draft one.

True that!

[marklmw]

Creating depth at a position in the minors allows you make trades to fill wholes that you may have. At the time Marrero ceiling might have looked high and being a plus defensive SS raises his value as well. If Bogaerts takes off he becomes a trading chip like Iggy was. If Bogaerts out grows the position then you have another solid defensive SS.

I think that the scout got it wrong on Marrero .... If he were available about 5 rounds later then maybe take a shot with him. Could have been the same scout that got it right many times before. Whoever decided to draft Pedroia probably had some explaining to do at the time.

[Orange Juiced]

Lester's season can be broken up into three sections:

 

4/1-5/15: 9 g, 59.2 ip, 2.72 era, 1.01 whip, 7.5 k/9, .246 babip, .576 ops

5/15-7/8: 10 g, 59.2 ip, 6.49 era, 1.73 whip, 7.4 k/9, .359 babip, .900 ops

7/8-8/24: 8 g, 53.0 ip, 2.55 era, 1.19 whip, 7.1 k/9, .280 babip, .654 ops

 

I hope we're not in for another chunk like that 5/15-7/8 section!! Let's hope that this last run continues the rest of the season.

[a700hitter]

Myers is killing them in the cleanup spot in August. He may turn out to be a star, but he isn't playing like one in August.

[Behindenemylines]

Myers is killing them in the cleanup spot in August. He may turn out to be a star, but he isn't playing like one in August.

 

That is a young hitter who now has to make adjustments since the league's SP have adjusted to him. I feel Lester pitching like he has been lately is more valuable to the Sox then even a hot Myers is to the Rays.