Sox get Peavy

[Orange Juiced]

I know what his worse start was. It was bad, but not a 2 IP, 8 ER disaster like Raul Valdes had the other day. And again, if you take away his best start along with his worst, you get a 4.09 ERA, which is just a slight improvement. And the problem with the rest of your post is the way you worded it "an entire season's worth of stats" is incorrect because he hasn't pitched an entire season. Saying that it has skewed his season to date would have prevented misinterpretation.

 

For the record, if you want to make a legitimate argument about Peavy improving with the Red Sox that doesn't involve manipulating stats, look no further than the White Sox defense. Their defense is one of the worst in the Majors, and their OF defense as a team may be the worst.

 

Re: the bolded part. In my initial post on this topic I took away just his worst start because I consider that to be a very strong outlier. He has had a number of great starts so I don't consider one of those to be an outlier. He's more than capable of spinning a beauty. But he's only had one epic disaster, which indicates that I don't think it's likely that we see that again over the next 2 months. That's why in my initial post I just discounted that one.

 

Remember, my premise was that we are looking forward - trying to figure out what is reasonable to expect from Peavy *from this point on*. And so for me, I think he's much closer to a pitcher in the 3.70-3.80 range than a pitcher in the 4.20-4.30 range.

 

YMMV.

[User Name]

Re: the bolded part. In my initial post on this topic I took away just his worst start because I consider that to be a very strong outlier. He has had a number of great starts so I don't consider one of those to be an outlier. He's more than capable of spinning a beauty. But he's only had one epic disaster, which indicates that I don't think it's likely that we see that again over the next 2 months. That's why in my initial post I just discounted that one.

 

Remember, my premise was that we are looking forward - trying to figure out what is reasonable to expect from Peavy *from this point on*. And so for me, I think he's much closer to a pitcher in the 3.70-3.80 range than a pitcher in the 4.20-4.30 range.

 

YMMV.

 

This is inconsistent. If 2 IP, 6 ER is an outlier, 9 IP, 1 ER is an outlier too. He may be capable of "spinning a beauty" like that, but it's very rare that he, or anyone for that matter, does.

 

Also, you don't need to take away starts to conclude he's a better pitcher (when healthy) than a 4.28 ERA. You can make that case easily using readily available data.

 

He has a 3.68 xFIP (more viable than FIP in thiss case since his current HR rate is insane and he's unlikely to sustain it) and the team he's on sucks at catching fly balls per their overall and OF UZR. If healthy, Peavy will be fine.

[a700hitter]

or maybe he is closer to the 4.00 ERA that he has ppitched to in 537 innings in the AL.

[BornToRun]

or maybe he is closer to the 4.00 ERA that he has ppitched to in 537 innings in the AL.

 

I think he'll be better than that. He's got good strikeout stuff, great control, and his struggles with the gopher ball/ lefties are bound to be helped by natural regression and the fact that our right field is massive and our outfield defense is far superior to what CHWS has.

[User Name]

If he pitched to a 4.00 ERA with good peripherals and stayed healthy i wouldn't complain.

[Bellhorn04]

If he pitched to a 4.00 ERA with good peripherals and stayed healthy i wouldn't complain.

 

Exactly.

[a700hitter]

If he pitched to a 4.00 ERA with good peripherals and stayed healthy i wouldn't complain.

I am not complaining about Peavy. I am arguing about these statistical gymanstics being used to predict his performance when he has had a decent body of work in the AL that would give the best indication when taken as a whole. Peavy's problems are not his stuff or his performance. It is his health.

[User Name]

Where did i say you were complaining about Peavy? I made the comment because i don't see the need to try to forecast anything other than what he's likely to produce. Not everything is about you man.

[Orange Juiced]

This is inconsistent. If 2 IP, 6 ER is an outlier, 9 IP, 1 ER is an outlier too. He may be capable of "spinning a beauty" like that, but it's very rare that he, or anyone for that matter, does.

 

I understand. But he's had several 7 ip, 1 er starts, so a 9 ip, 1 er start isn't very far off. He's only had one epic, colossal disaster.

 

But I get your point.

 

Also, you don't need to take away starts to conclude he's a better pitcher (when healthy) than a 4.28 ERA. You can make that case easily using readily available data.

 

He has a 3.68 xFIP (more viable than FIP in thiss case since his current HR rate is insane and he's unlikely to sustain it) and the team he's on sucks at catching fly balls per their overall and OF UZR. If healthy, Peavy will be fine.

 

I agree.

[Behindenemylines]

Peavy has pitched well of late which is what you really want to look at. Price is a perfect example of that. If you look at his season stats they are not impressive, but you saw what he did to the Sox. Since the All-Star break a healthy Price has been lights out. Buchholtz is the opposite. If you look at his season stats they look great, but he hasn't pitched since June and no one knows when or if he is coming back. Peavy has pitched well of late and I think as long as he remains healthy it will be a positive for the Sox. I believe it is what a pitcher has done in their last 4 or 5 starts is what you have to look at.

[a700hitter]

Where did i say you were complaining about Peavy? I made the comment because i don't see the need to try to forecast anything other than what he's likely to produce. Not everything is about you man.

No need to get pissy all the time. I was just clarifying my position. I didn't want my posts getting misconstrued into people thinking that I am anti -Peavy. It was a clarification for the whole forum, not just for you. Everything is not always about you, man.

[User Name]

No need to get pissy all the time. I was just clarifying my position. I didn't want my posts getting misconstrued into people thinking that I am anti -Peavy. It was a clarification for the whole forum, not just for you. Everything is not always about you, man.

 

Which is obviously why you quoted me, instead of making a general statement like i did. Well done.

[BornToRun]

Okay, time to stop the bickering. I demand a group hug, motherf***ers!

[a700hitter]

Which is obviously why you quoted me, instead of making a general statement like i did. Well done.

Such a dick. Go take your meds. I try to tolerate you but you make everything a fight. To ignore with you. For good.

[italstallianion]

Haven't I been suggesting that for years?

[BornToRun]

Group hug goddamnit

[a700hitter]

Haven't I been suggesting that for years?

I kept trying, but the guy is in a constant state of agitation like a rabid dog. I'm done with him, not even a peek at his posts. There's plenty of baseball knowledge here to enjoy without engaging him. He should go find his recent ally, SR and join up with him someplace else.

[a700hitter]

Group hug goddamnit

Big hug to you and Taylor and John Lackey.

[User Name]

Right, because i'm the one taking a general comment and turning it into a rant LMAO. It's not my fault SR is no longer around for you to bicker with.

[User Name]

And you can't ignore me, i'm a must read!

[italstallianion]

I kept trying, but the guy is in a constant state of agitation like a rabid dog. I'm done with him, not even a peek at his posts. There's plenty of baseball knowledge here to enjoy without engaging him. He should go find his recent ally, SR and join up with him someplace else.

 

Well best of luck to you. I'm too weak to be able to ignore people without peaking at posts. Luckily for me there really isn't anyone here anymore that I'd need too. On other forums though that's a much bigger problem for me.

[Dojji]

Which is obviously why you quoted me, instead of making a general statement like i did. Well done.

 

Please, do get over yourself.

 

I try not to get involved in these tet-a-tetes, and I'm no best-buddy of a700, but you seem to enjoy these fights to the point that you appear to be going out of your way to manufacture one. I consider that reprehensible.

 

Back off and knock it off. Keeping a700 honest is one thing, antagonizing him is quite another.

Edited July 31, 2013 by Dojji

[a700hitter]

Well best of luck to you. I'm too weak to be able to ignore people without peaking at posts. Luckily for me there really isn't anyone here anymore that I'd need too. On other forums though that's a much bigger problem for me.

Thanks.

[User Name]

Please, do get over yourself.

 

Don't you have a Royals player you should be hyping?

[a700hitter]

Please, do get over yourself.

 

I try not to get involved in these tet-a-tetes, and I'm no best-buddy of a700, but you seem to enjoy these fights to the point that you appear to be going out of your way to manufacture one. I consider that reprehensible.

 

Back off and knock it off. Keeping a700 honest is one thing, antagonizing him is quite another.

I should have sent you a friend request a long time ago. Seriously, I always like seeing your point of view and agree with you about half the time.

[Dojji]

I should have sent you a friend request a long time ago. Seriously, I always like seeing your point of view and agree with you about half the time.

 

That must be scary for you considering how often I'm way out on a limb.

[Dojji]

Don't you have a Royals player you should be hyping?

 

Don't you have a Valium you should be taking?

 

I don't have the patience to deal with you. It's one of the reasons I've avoided calling you out to this point. You have a natiral talent for generating shouting matches whenever you materialize, and I don't have the time or the temperament to keep shouting long enough to stop you from declaring victory.

 

Well, that and the old adage: "don't wrestle a pig in a mudhole, you'll both get filthy, but the pig will enjoy it a lot more.

 

I'm not going down to your level. Instead, I'll try the revolutionary tactic of inviting you up to mine. A little weird on an internet forum, but I'm all about weird ideas after all.

 

I'm telling you this for your own good. For the sake of the collective blood pressure of the entire forum, please cool it.

Edited July 31, 2013 by Dojji

[User Name]

Please, do get over yourself.

 

I try not to get involved in these tet-a-tetes, and I'm no best-buddy of a700, but you seem to enjoy these fights to the point that you appear to be going out of your way to manufacture one. I consider that reprehensible.

 

Back off and knock it off. Keeping a700 honest is one thing, antagonizing him is quite another.

 

What the hell are you talking about? a700 has been on my nuts ever since i joined the site, immediately pegged me as Dutchy, and spent a year antagonizing me along wth iortiz. If you don't know what you're talking about, shut your big mouth. Another instance where you're going way out on a limb. Why don't you stick to pining for Royals players?

 

a700 is a hypocrite, yet again playing the victim. What's new?

[User Name]

Don't you have a Valium you should be taking?

 

I don't have the patience to deal with you. It's one of the reasons I've avoided calling you out to this point.

 

Well, that and the old adage, "don't wrestle a pig in a mudhole, you'll both get filthy, but the pig will enjoy it a lot more.

 

I'm telling you this for your own good. For the sake of the collective blood pressure of the entire forum, please cool it.

 

Oh right, for my own good. What the hell are you talking about? Where were you when a700 and iortiz were tag-teaming me on a consistent basis to the point where other posters took exception to it.

 

I'm telling YOU this for your OWN good. Mind your own business.

[Dojji]

See what I mean? You can't take either criticism or a friendly warning without bristling. Anything directed at you that is not obsequiously complimentary gets challenged as if I insulted your mother.

 

Honestly I'm surprised your hackles aren't completely worn out at this point.

 

Do you bring anything to this forum other than a bad temper and a snarky tone?