Sox starting pitching

[jung]

I don't think it was an over the top move per se, at least not with the up to 2 years of control we gained over Peavy.

 

i'm sure a chance to go over the top crossed Cherington's mind, don't get me wrong, but this is a medium-term move, not a short-term one.

 

Interesting point of conjecture.....would BC have made this move all-be-it at a lower cost if there was no added year of control? Honestly, I am leaning toward No..he would not have pursued Peavy if that were the case. I could be convinced either way though.

[sk7326]

Interesting point of conjecture.....would BC have made this move all-be-it at a lower cost if there was no added year of control? Honestly, I am leaning toward No..he would not have pursued Peavy if that were the case. I could be convinced either way though.

 

He would not have given up a starting SS for a rental. One additional year of control with a vesting option that will not kick in at what is basically the going rate for a guy his caliber? That makes Iggy a fair price.

[Orange Juiced]

Jake Peavy since arriving in Boston:

 

7.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 7 k

5.0 ip, 10 h, 6 r, 6 er, 1 bb, 0 k

6.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 4 k

5.2 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 4 k

9.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 5 k

 

TOT: 32.2 ip, 27 h, 12 r, 12 er, 5 bb, 20 k, 3.31 era, 0.98 whip, 5.5 k/9

 

Pretty solid addition to the staff so far.

[sk7326]

Something about a good west coast trip to raise the spirits. Peavy was on last night. And let's be honest - the starting rotation has been a strength. There have been hiccups during the season, and it'd be nice to have a true #1 (but so few teams have one of those). But day in and day out, the starter has given this team a chance - and that did not happen nearly enough last year or the September prior to that.

[Orange Juiced]

Something about a good west coast trip to raise the spirits. Peavy was on last night. And let's be honest - the starting rotation has been a strength. There have been hiccups during the season, and it'd be nice to have a true #1 (but so few teams have one of those). But day in and day out, the starter has given this team a chance - and that did not happen nearly enough last year or the September prior to that.

 

Agreed. What the Red Sox have now is a rotation of 5 solid pitchers. No great ones, but 5 solid ones. And a rotation like that can be incredibly valuable. Each guy gives you a pretty good chance to win every night, even if you don't have a dominant ace. It means that you're not likely to have a long losing streak (and still, the team hasn't had a losing streak of more than 3 games all year).

 

Remember what guys they were throwing out there in September of 2011....holy smokes that was awful.

[Behindenemylines]

Something about a good west coast trip to raise the spirits. Peavy was on last night. And let's be honest - the starting rotation has been a strength. There have been hiccups during the season, and it'd be nice to have a true #1 (but so few teams have one of those). But day in and day out, the starter has given this team a chance - and that did not happen nearly enough last year or the September prior to that.

 

If the Sox want to play in October it will because of their SP. The Rays SP isn't going anywhere so the Sox have to match it.

[sk7326]

If the Sox want to play in October it will because of their SP. The Rays SP isn't going anywhere so the Sox have to match it.

 

Oh no doubt. But if Price and Moore pitch shutouts every time out, the Rays would never lose. For all the perception about how good the Rays are relative to us - all of those games were close and competitive - just have to grind a bit more on the ABs so they can get to the bullpen a tad earlier.

[Orange Juiced]

Just for comparison's sake.....

 

Boston

Buchholz: 1.71 era, 245 era+, 1.02 whip, 8.6 k/9

Lackey: 3.17 era, 132 era+, 1.18 whip, 7.9 k/9

Lester: 3.97 era, 105 era+, 1.31 whip, 7.4 k/9

Peavy: 3.99 era, 108 era+, 1.09 whip, 7.7 k/9

Doubront: 3.79 era, 110 era+, 1.40 whip, 7.8 k/9

- - - - -

Dempster: 4.77 era, 88 era+, 1.47 whip, 8.2 k/9

 

 

Tampa Bay

Price: 3.28 era, 117 era+, 1.09 whip, 7.3 k/9

Moore: 3.41 era, 112 era+, 1.23 whip, 8.5 k/9

Cobb: 2.87 era, 133 era+, 1.19 whip, 8.3 k/9

Archer: 2.93 era, 131 era+, 1.09 whip, 6.2 k/9

Hellickson: 5.01 era, 76 era+, 1.32 whip, 6.9 k/9

- - - - -

Hernandez: 4.97 era, 77 era+, 1.32 whip, 6.5 k/9

 

 

I put the last guy under a dashed line because they would be the odd man out if all the teams' top 5 pitchers were healthy. In all honesty, those rotations are a lot closer than I thought they would be.

[jung]

Dempster has been fading and I suspect he will continue to do so. The interminable wait for the return of the mighty Buch is really getting to be a concern. I am convinced that he is not going to immediately come back as he left us....far from it...yet that date for a return of any kind seems now to be end of first week in September or something like that. 3 months on the shelf....almost criminal.

 

The problem with "solid" which the Sox starting pitching surely is even without Buch is that once you get to the post season, you face some monster starter in games 1 an 4. We don't have a guy that can play that role save Buch at his best. The rest of them "might" give you that kind of start but I would not depend on it.

 

The sands keep shifting under our feet in that regard. One night we would "definitely" make it Lester in game 1, the next night its Lackey. In truth it might be Peavy. There is not a single one of them that you would auto-insert into game 1 of a seven game series.

 

But hey....a good deal has happened this year that nobody was expecting. So it is an enjoyable ride for us fans. I just wish I felt like the offense might pull us through a post season game 1 where we are not likely to match up in the starting pitching. But I have little faith in that. They are prone to being cut down and out with a whimper and not a bang.

[sk7326]

The Buch wait is a concern ... but they have been trucking along anyway. Dempster is clearly the bullpen arm that gets swung - a place where his stuff might play up as the Tim Lincecum of the pitching staff. Like Lincecum Dempster has been shaky as starter, and like Lincecum has legit swing and miss stuff that might be channeled in a short season bullpen.

 

How many of these series would a team bring their #1 back for Game 4 ... the teams with true horses ... Tigers, Rangers, Rays sort of (in theory, but I am not sure they think that their top 3 guys are sufficient) ... it's a short list.

[rjortiz]

If the Sox want to play in October it will because of their SP. The Rays SP isn't going anywhere so the Sox have to match it.

 

The Red Sox have a better offense than the Rays, so they don't have to completely match what the Rays do. They'll play in October if they keep hitting the ball, and continue to have above average starting pitching.

[User Name]

A healthy Buchholz at 80% of his early-season production is enough for the Red Sox to match up man-to-man against the Rays in a short series.

[FredLynn]

A healthy Buchholz at 80% of his early-season production is enough for the Red Sox to match up man-to-man against the Rays in a short series.

 

The Sox should be able to handle the Rays. Its the Tigers that are going to be our major obstacle. They lead the league in ERA and have a higher OPS than us. To compete with them we need a healthy and effective Buchholz.

[User Name]

That's if we even get to the Tigers/the Tigers get to us. With the playoffs, you never know.

[jung]

While some have decided that if Buch can't pitch or isn't ready to pitch a really big game in a post season series, they would choose Lester and others have decided that their choice would be Lackey, all we are really saying is that without Buch we don't know who it would be. Would anybody question that the choice for the Rays would be Price or for the Rangers would be Darvish or for the Tigers would be Scherzer...No. Our split on the question tells us we are really not confident that any one of them could match up without Buch and I am not at all convinced that 80% of a Buch gets the job done.

 

Anyway if Buch is not going to be ready to go, my choice would be Peavy for one reason. Peavy has been that guy before. He has been the Monster that can simply dominate a game. The reason Zito could summon up what it took for him to come out of nowhere last year and win that critical game for SF is because he had been that monster once before. He was able to summon up from inside him another game like that because he did not have to go someplace he had never been to summon up that game. We don't have anybody but Peavy that has been that guy.

 

We always hoped Lester would be but he never has been. Lackey was close but not quite. So if I could not have Buch and had to go nose to nose with Price or Darvish or even Scherzer, I would pick Peavy and hope he could summon up the monster again.

[rjortiz]

While some have decided that if Buch can't pitch or isn't ready to pitch a really big game in a post season series, they would choose Lester and others have decided that their choice would be Lackey, all we are really saying is that without Buch we don't know who it would be. Would anybody question that the choice for the Rays would be Price or for the Rangers would be Darvish or for the Tigers would be Scherzer...No. Our split on the question tells us we are really not confident that any one of them could match up without Buch and I am not at all convinced that 80% of a Buch gets the job done.

 

Anyway if Buch is not going to be ready to go, my choice would be Peavy for one reason. Peavy has been that guy before. He has been the Monster that can simply dominate a game. The reason Zito could summon up what it took for him to come out of nowhere last year and win that critical game for SF is because he had been that monster once before. He was able to summon up from inside him another game like that because he did not have to go someplace he had never been to summon up that game. We don't have anybody but Peavy that has been that guy.

 

We always hoped Lester would be but he never has been. Lackey was close but not quite. So if I could not have Buch and had to go nose to nose with Price or Darvish or even Scherzer, I would pick Peavy and hope he could summon up the monster again.

 

Summon the monster? Are Peavy and Zito Wiccans?

[Orange Juiced]

While some have decided that if Buch can't pitch or isn't ready to pitch a really big game in a post season series, they would choose Lester and others have decided that their choice would be Lackey, all we are really saying is that without Buch we don't know who it would be. Would anybody question that the choice for the Rays would be Price or for the Rangers would be Darvish or for the Tigers would be Scherzer...No. Our split on the question tells us we are really not confident that any one of them could match up without Buch and I am not at all convinced that 80% of a Buch gets the job done.

 

Anyway if Buch is not going to be ready to go, my choice would be Peavy for one reason. Peavy has been that guy before. He has been the Monster that can simply dominate a game. The reason Zito could summon up what it took for him to come out of nowhere last year and win that critical game for SF is because he had been that monster once before. He was able to summon up from inside him another game like that because he did not have to go someplace he had never been to summon up that game. We don't have anybody but Peavy that has been that guy.

 

We always hoped Lester would be but he never has been. Lackey was close but not quite. So if I could not have Buch and had to go nose to nose with Price or Darvish or even Scherzer, I would pick Peavy and hope he could summon up the monster again.

 

Lester sure has been that guy. Lester's career postseason #s: 8 g, 2.57 era, 1.12 whip, 8.4 k/9, and he won the World Series clinching game 4 in 2007 against Colorado, throwing 5.2 innings of 3-hit, shutout baseball.

 

I like Peavy, but he's never won a World Series, and he's never even had a decent playoff performance. He's pitched in two postseason games:

 

10/4/05, vs. StL: 4.1 ip, 8 h, 8 r, 8 er, 3 bb, 3 k

10/3/06, vs. StL: 5.1 ip, 11 h, 5 r, 5 er, 1 bb, 2 k

 

TOTALS: 9.2 ip, 19 h, 13 r, 13 er, 4 bb, 5 k, 12.10 era, 2.38 whip, 4.7 k/9

 

So in a big playoff game, based on their respective histories, who would you rather have on the mound: Lester or Peavy? Based on these numbers, it isn't even close....Lester in a heartbeat.

[BenUKPatsSoxCeltics4Life]

Do we wait with Buch? I know they say he can be fit to go on the 4th of December. But surely bit like drinking home made beer, yes you can enjoy it a bit if you don't wait but best to wait until next rotation cycle and give him one game of less pressure?

[Orange Juiced]

Do we wait with Buch? I know they say he can be fit to go on the 4th of December. But surely bit like drinking home made beer, yes you can enjoy it a bit if you don't wait but best to wait until next rotation cycle and give him one game of less pressure?

 

I think we all hope he'll be ready to go long before the 4th of December.

[Bellhorn04]

Do we wait with Buch? I know they say he can be fit to go on the 4th of December. But surely bit like drinking home made beer, yes you can enjoy it a bit if you don't wait but best to wait until next rotation cycle and give him one game of less pressure?

 

We call it September over here, Ben.

[jung]

5 innings???? 5 innings against that Colorado team?? The only thing that series proved is that the last thing you want to do in the post season is win a series too early and then wait for the other series to end. It just never works out. The team that waits comes out flat and lifeless and nothing anybody has so far invented has been able to change that. The Rockies won the NL Championship on Oct 15 and did not play a game again until the WS started on Oct 24.

 

These guys play close to every day for an entire season and at least every other day in the post season and then are sometimes made to wait seven, eight days......just doesn't work. Probably no cure for it but there does not appear to be any remedy either.

 

One thing that concerns me is that the Networks more and more control regular season and post season scheduling. If they have their way, once we get down to League Championship games, I suspect we will get a game in each league alternating every other day.

 

So to the question of how many days of rest a team's number 1 rotation guy gets between games, if it works out the way the Networks want it, a number 1 rotation guy pitching game 1 on day 1 of a seven game series if waiting till game 5 will not pitch again until day 9 of the series. I would want that guy to be out there on day 7 of the series, not wanting him waiting till day 9 to pitch again. As has been proven time and time again, it is just the worst time of the season for excess inactivity for a team and for a pitcher. Excessive time off the field that the team is not used to and excessive time off the bump that the pitcher is not used to simply throws everything out the window.

 

I still think the Sox would have won that 2007 WS. I just don't think they would have rolled over Colorado had Colorado not been made to wait a full week for the WS to begin.

[Orange Juiced]

jung, you can poo-poo Lester's game 4 start against Colorado all you like, but his overall postseason track record is FAR superior to Peavy's. It isn't even close. And in any one game scenario, Lester is just as likely to put up a gem as Peavy is.

 

EDIT: Lester's worst postseason performance was STILL better than either of Peavy's.

[sk7326]

Rest vs rust has always been a fun debate, but all the arguments are made post hoc (monday morning QBing). The 07 Sox were the best team in baseball - and while the best team in baseball winning the WS is not that frequent an event, worked out then. Colorado being iced for 9 days is one thing, but you don't want them to not win games either. Nature of these things (and the 2 best teams in the league were playing in the other semifinal anyway).

 

It was 5-innings, but also 5-innings for your #5 starter in a NL park. Basically Tito lifted him after a 2-out walk to get to Delcarmen. At that point, 92 pitches, left with a good outing and backed up by an excellent bullpen.

 

The winning too early thing has some good recent examples behind it - but it is very hard to see it as a real hard factor. After all, in 2007 the Rockies had to wait, but in 2008 the Phillies had to wait for the Rays to survive Boston - and it did not seem to impact things too much.

 

Looking at the examples in the last 15 years or so - it seems like when a team sweeps and a team goes the distance, there might be a rust factor - maybe. But otherwise it's pretty much a non-factor. Baseball is just a funny game too - after all, a 7 game series is barely a ripply in a regular season. In the context of baseball, it might as well be single elimination.

[mvp 78]

jung, you can poo-poo Lester's game 4 start against Colorado all you like, but his overall postseason track record is FAR superior to Peavy's. It isn't even close. And in any one game scenario, Lester is just as likely to put up a gem as Peavy is.

 

EDIT: Lester's worst postseason performance was STILL better than either of Peavy's.

Peavy has only appeared in 2 games and that was 7-8 years ago? The postseason stats for Lester and Peavy are meaningless at this point.

[Bellhorn04]

Peavy has only appeared in 2 games and that was 7-8 years ago? The postseason stats for Lester and Peavy are meaningless at this point.

 

I agree.

[Orange Juiced]

Peavy has only appeared in 2 games and that was 7-8 years ago? The postseason stats for Lester and Peavy are meaningless at this point.

 

I offered their postseason numbers as a counter to the claim that Peavy, uniquely on this roster, has this inner monster that he has available to call upon to dominate games. And I suggested that Lester has a better track record in the postseason. Which is true.

 

I'm not sure why what I offered is less meaningful than an odd claim made about Peavy.

[mvp 78]

I offered their postseason numbers as a counter to the claim that Peavy, uniquely on this roster, has this inner monster that he has available to call upon to dominate games. And I suggested that Lester has a better track record in the postseason. Which is true.

 

I'm not sure why what I offered is less meaningful than an odd claim made about Peavy.

Um, Peavy DOES have an inner monster. Haven't you seen it try to crawl out of his mouth whenever he walks someone?

 

At this point, none of the Sox starters have recent postseason success. The game 1 starter should be whoever finishes the season the strongest. You could make a case for Peavy, Lackey, Lester or maybe even Doubront. Buchholz will only have 2-3 weeks on the roster. I wouldn't want him pitching game 1 unless he can magically go 110 pitches and keep his ERA under 2 the rest of the way.

[Orange Juiced]

Um, Peavy DOES have an inner monster. Haven't you seen it try to crawl out of his mouth whenever he walks someone?

 

At this point, none of the Sox starters have recent postseason success. The game 1 starter should be whoever finishes the season the strongest. You could make a case for Peavy, Lackey, Lester or maybe even Doubront. Buchholz will only have 2-3 weeks on the roster. I wouldn't want him pitching game 1 unless he can magically go 110 pitches and keep his ERA under 2 the rest of the way.

 

The good news about their rotation is that they don't really have to worry about "setting it up" at the end of the year. They can pretty much just roll with whoever is in line to start. All of them are capable of turning in a quality performance.

[Behindenemylines]

The good news about their rotation is that they don't really have to worry about "setting it up" at the end of the year. They can pretty much just roll with whoever is in line to start. All of them are capable of turning in a quality performance.

 

The Sox days off in September will allow them to set up their rotation that gives them the best chance to win. If the Sox don't win the division then it becomes a one and done wild card game. If that is the case then who gives the Sox the best chance to win?

[Orange Juiced]

The Sox days off in September will allow them to set up their rotation that gives them the best chance to win. If the Sox don't win the division then it becomes a one and done wild card game. If that is the case then who gives the Sox the best chance to win?

 

Given that their rotation is so balanced, it probably depends on: (1) health, (2) matchups, and (3) who is in the best form at the time. Right now, we have no idea who that might be.