Bailey - Stay or Go?

[mvp 78]

Papelbon's blown saves for 2013:

 

June 17 #1

June 19 #2

June 22 #3

June 24 #4

 

 

Sounds consistent and reliable to me!

[Bellhorn04]

It looks like Pap's loss of velocity and reduced K rate is catching up to him quickly. Last night he didn't get hit hard by any means. But he gave up a single, a hit by pitch and a walk, and he didn't strike anybody out.

[User Name]

It looks like Pap's loss of velocity and reduced K rate is catching up to him quickly. Last night he didn't get hit hard by any means. But he gave up a single, a hit by pitch and a walk, and he didn't strike anybody out.

 

I got lambasted on this site for predicting the exact same thing. Just sayin'.

[Bellhorn04]

I got lambasted on this site for predicting the exact same thing. Just sayin'.

 

I know, and it looks like you were dead right.

[mvp 78]

I got lambasted on this site for predicting the exact same thing. Just sayin'.

 

That's because you are a stupid meanie head who doesn't play nice in the sandbox.

[User Name]

That's because you are a stupid meanie head who doesn't play nice in the sandbox.

 

Meanie head

[a700hitter]

And Papelbon is still better than Bailey.

[Standing Room]

Papelbon's blown saves for 2013:

 

June 17 #1

June 19 #2

June 22 #3

June 24 #4

 

 

He must have gotten lost, those don't look like the route numbers for Mo's Highway!

[a700hitter]

I got lambasted on this site for predicting the exact same thing. Just sayin'.

I checked the Predictions thread. You didn't post any list of predictions like many other did. No guts, no glory. So, I can't find this Papelbon prediction or the lambasting that allegedly occurred. You did state that you were "cautiously optimistic" about Bard. Suprisingly, no one lambasted you for that one.

[Bellhorn04]

And Papelbon is still better than Bailey.

 

Agreed, but at this point it's like saying re-acquiring Papelbon would make us better than re-acquiring Jenks.

[a700hitter]

Agreed, but at this point it's like saying re-acquiring Papelbon would make us better than re-acquiring Jenks.

I saw Jenks' last outing at Yankee Stadium. He got winded from walking in from the bullpen to the mound and warming up.

[User Name]

I checked the Predictions thread. You didn't post any list of predictions like many other did. No guts, no glory. So, I can't find this Papelbon prediction or the lambasting that allegedly occurred. You did state that you were "cautiously optimistic" about Bard. Suprisingly, no one lambasted you for that one.

 

I didn't post anything about Papelbon in the Red Sox prediction thread? Color me surprised. However, as Bellhorn pointed out, i have mentioned many times Papelbon's declining K rate, BABIP and declining velocity (which you called me out in a gamethread) as indicators of looming regression. Cut the crap.

[a700hitter]

I didn't post anything about Papelbon in the Red Sox prediction thread? Color me surprised. However, as Bellhorn pointed out, i have mentioned many times Papelbon's declining K rate, BABIP and declining velocity (which you called me out in a gamethread) as indicators of looming regression. Cut the crap.

So, was it a prediction or an observation? There is a difference. An observation is much less impressive. Where was the lambasting? Was that also hyperbole?

[User Name]

So, was it a prediction or an observation? There is a difference. An observation is much less impressive. Where was the lambasting? Was that also hyperbole?

 

I literally predicted that Papelbon's peripherals would catch up to him and he'd have a season closer to 2010 than 2011 or 2012.

 

This happened during one of my many Papelbon arguments with iortiz. If you had me on ignore and didn't read the post, that's your problem

[a700hitter]

I literally predicted that Papelbon's peripherals would catch up to him and he'd have a season closer to 2010 than 2011 or 2012.

 

This happened during one of my many Papelbon arguments with iortiz. If you had me on ignore and didn't read the post, that's your problem

Still, I must have missed the ensuing lambasting.

 

BTW, I'd be happy to take Papelbon's 2010 instead of what we paraded out there last season and this season.

[User Name]

That depends on whether or not Tazawa/Uehara can get the job done.

[a700hitter]

That depends on whether or not Tazawa/Uehara can get the job done.

I"d be happy if either one of them could put up a 2010 Papelbon season. Very happy.

[a700hitter]

Uehara will not get by as the closer with an 89 mph heater. He's a nice pitcher, but that would not end up better than 2010 Papelbon.

[User Name]

His numbers say otherwise. He has an ample MLB track record as an upper echelon reliever even though he has little velocity. And he's not the only guy who's been extremely effective with little velocity (Foulke, Hoffman). Not saying he's either of those guys, but he has a similar profile.

 

If anything's going to hold Uehara back from being an effective closer, it's durability.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Uehara will not get by as the closer with an 89 mph heater. He's a nice pitcher, but that would not end up better than 2010 Papelbon.

 

This has absolutely no backing in any way whatsoever.

 

If his 89 mph FB would get hard in the 9th, it would get hard in the 7th and 8th innings as well.

 

But it doesn't. He's got a career 2.79 ERA, and a 2.31 ERA since 2010.

 

From 2010 - today, Uehara has a better K/9, BB/9, and ERA

 

Over their careers, Uehara has a better contact rate (72.5%) than Papelbon (74.4%). In 2012 and 2013, Uehara's contact rate was 67.2% and 68.4%. During that same span, Papelbon's contact rate was 74.7% and 76.7%.

 

Please explain how Uehara would not be a good closer (outside of durability), but Papelbon would be based on velocity?

[a700hitter]

His numbers say otherwise. He has an ample MLB track record as an upper echelon reliever even though he has little velocity. And he's not the only guy who's been extremely effective with little velocity (Foulke, Hoffman). Not saying he's either of those guys, but he has a similar profile.

 

If anything's going to hold Uehara back from being an effective closer, it's durability.

I'll be thrilled turning cartwheels if he gives us a 2010 Papelbon season.

[Standing Room]

No statistical evidence whatsoever that Uehara can't get the job done. Some people just aren't happy unless "their" guy is the one blowing saves for us.

[Bellhorn04]

I know that 'closer by committee' is like a dirty word, but it seems to me that a tandem of Uehara and Tazawa could work.

[User Name]

I think they really wanna keep Tazawa in his current "relief ace" role, and i think it makes sense.

[RedSoxNC84]

I know that 'closer by committee' is like a dirty word, but it seems to me that a tandem of Uehara and Tazawa could work.

 

I don't understand that. Having only one reliever to close out games never works, simply because that's too many innings for a relief pitcher.

 

Now having the hype of a designated closer I can sort of understand, but why not have two-three of your best relievers ready to close games at any time? It would certainly keep the bullpen a little more fresh, yes?

[SoxFanForsyth]

Love looking up a ton of stats to show someone a different view of something/prove them wrong, and then just bring ignored.

 

Yeah I'm talkin to you Ted! :harhar:

[User Name]

I don't understand that. Having only one reliever to close out games never works, simply because that's too many innings for a relief pitcher.

 

Now having the hype of a designated closer I can sort of understand, but why not have two-three of your best relievers ready to close games at any time? It would certainly keep the bullpen a little more fresh, yes?

 

Baseball players are creatures of habit. "Designated roles" is kind of a mantra they live by.

[a700hitter]

Love looking up a ton of stats to show someone a different view of something/prove them wrong, and then just bring ignored.

 

Yeah I'm talkin to you Ted! :harhar:

SFF, I never intentionally ignore you. What did I miss/ignore?

[SoxFanForsyth]

SFF, I never intentionally ignore you. What did I miss/ignore?

 

Haha I'm just giving you crap man. I was talking about the stats of Uehara vs Papelbon, when you said you didn't have confidence in Uehara, that's all.

[a700hitter]

Haha I'm just giving you crap man. I was talking about the stats of Uehara vs Papelbon, when you said you didn't have confidence in Uehara, that's all.

I looked at Uehara's stats when I looked back at your post. I knew that he had been a successful bullpen guy, but I mistakenly thought he had trouble in the closer's role. He had one season where he had 13 saves and he did pretty well. He's probably our best bet interanlly, but the biggest question mark he would carry is the ability to pitch back to back days and carry a heavy load.