The Young Guns

[SoxFanForsyth]

It's pretty much the opposite of the Middlebrooks situation. Middlebrooks had 96 games at AA and 40 games at AAA, where he was hitting .333/.380/.677, and he was called up because we didn't have anyone to play third base. Bogaerts has 70 something games at AA, no games at AAA, and we have two players who can play shortstop.

 

Bogaerts will be promoted in a month if he continues to hit. If he then hits at AAA, he'll be called up in September. If he then hits in September, he has a chance for a spot on the playoff roster like Ellsbury did in 2007. This isn't rocket science.

 

1. If Iglesias becomes the utility guy in Boston (very likely), it opens up a hole at SS in Pawtucket. That would be a perfect scenario for Bogaerts to be promoted.

 

2. I said mid-August. Which would give Bogaerts ~50-60 games in AAA. That would translate to ~125-135 games between AA and AAA, which is precisely how many Middlebrooks had.

 

3. The calling for Middlebrooks to play 3B was well before Youkilis got hurt.

 

I'm not sure how the scenarios are very different at all.

 

I would be well beyond shocked if Bogaerts isn't promoted before mid June, likely once Middlebrooks gets activated and the Sox face a decision on Ciriaco and Iglesias.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Machado had no one in front of him. Ellsbury had Coco Crap in front of him (who had an ops .040 less than Drew does and was having his worse pro season). The need for Xander to come up just isn't really there right now.

 

Not right now, I agree. But in August? Or if Drew is playing decently and you can get a reliever for him, or address another area of need? Yeah, its completely reasonable for that situation to arrive.

[mvp 78]

Regardless, this is the most excited I've been about a prospect in a long, long time. I hope he gets the call to Pawtucket in the coming days, and is with the Red Sox by August.

 

File under "just because you wished something to be true doesn't actually make it true."

 

SFF, I love your enthusiasm, just think you may have to temper your expectations a little.

[SoxFanForsyth]

File under "just because you wished something to be true doesn't actually make it true."

 

SFF, I love your enthusiasm, just think you may have to temper your expectations a little.

 

Which part? Pawtucket int he coming days or Boston by August? There has actually been a lot of speculation about him going to Pawtucket int he coming days because of the SS hole voided by Iglesias.

[Standing Room]

1. If Iglesias becomes the utility guy in Boston (very likely), it opens up a hole at SS in Pawtucket. That would be a perfect scenario for Bogaerts to be promoted.

 

2. I said mid-August. Which would give Bogaerts ~50-60 games in AAA. That would translate to ~125-135 games between AA and AAA, which is precisely how many Middlebrooks had.

 

3. The calling for Middlebrooks to play 3B was well before Youkilis got hurt.

 

I'm not sure how the scenarios are very different at all.

 

I would be well beyond shocked if Bogaerts isn't promoted before mid June, likely once Middlebrooks gets activated and the Sox face a decision on Ciriaco and Iglesias.

 

Don't be ridiculous. Is Bogaerts OPSing over 1.000 in AAA? Do we have an actual need for a shortstop now? You're comparing the Middlebrooks situation to what you hope is going to happen in the future with Bogaerts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Don't be ridiculous. Is Bogaerts OPSing over 1.000 in AAA? Do we have an actual need for a shortstop now? You're comparing the Middlebrooks situation to what you hope is going to happen in the future with Bogaerts.

 

Not at all. I'm saying it's very much a possibility that he OPS's over .900 in Pawtucket. And that would be plenty to make Drew expendable.

[User Name]

Bogaerts will be promoted to AAA soon, because it's the logical thing to do. No one is arguing that. The argument's core issue is your ETA on XB's arrival to the Majors.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bogaerts will be promoted to AAA soon, because it's the logical thing to do. No one is arguing that. The argument's core issue is your ETA on XB's arrival to the Majors.

 

It's more of a "I wouldn't be surprised if..." than an expected time of arrival, that's all. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he's our SS in mid August.

 

The rest of it is just kind of conversation/debate about how ready he is.

[Standing Room]

Not at all. I'm saying it's very much a possibility that he OPS's over .900 in Pawtucket. And that would be plenty to make Drew expendable.

 

There's no way we trade Drew because a guy with a .940 fielding percentage is OPSing .900 in 100 at bats at AAA. You're getting way ahead of yourself.

[SoxFanForsyth]

There's no way we trade Drew because a guy with a .940 fielding percentage is OPSing .900 in 100 at bats at AAA. You're getting way ahead of yourself.

 

Man. You're not listening to me in the least.

 

He would play 50-60 games in AAA. That's 200-250 AB in AAA. Not 100.

 

Also - he's got a 94.7% Fielding Percentage, which is a horrible stat to look at because it's completely judgmental and biased depending on the scorekeepers mood.

 

Do you realize that Ozzie Smith had a .943 F% in the minors? Or Iglesias had a .969 in the minors? a 2% bump? That's not that much considering Iglesias is a once in a lifetime glove. Omar Vizquel? .951 F% in the minors.

 

Those are some pretty good gloves, wouldn't you think?

 

Let's not get carried away by F%.

[Standing Room]

Man. You're not listening to me in the least.

 

He would play 50-60 games in AAA. That's 200-250 AB in AAA. Not 100.

 

Also - he's got a 94.7% Fielding Percentage, which is a horrible stat to look at because it's completely judgmental and biased depending on the scorekeepers mood.

 

Do you realize that Ozzie Smith had a .943 F% in the minors? Or Iglesias had a .969 in the minors? a 2% bump? That's not that much considering Iglesias is a once in a lifetime glove. Omar Vizquel? .951 F% in the minors.

 

Those are some pretty good gloves, wouldn't you think?

 

Let's not get carried away by F%.

 

Bogaerts will have about 100 AB by the time the trade deadline arrives. But even if he had 500, you don't trade your starting shortstop because someone in AAA is doing well.

 

The comparison to Ozzie Smith is ridiculous. Smith had great range and his FPCT is the exception to the rule. Yankees fans said the same thing about Eduardo Nunez, and now he has a -15 UZR in the major leagues.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Bogaerts will have about 100 AB by the time the trade deadline arrives. But even if he had 500, you don't trade your starting shortstop because someone in AAA is doing well.

 

The comparison to Ozzie Smith is ridiculous. Smith had great range and his FPCT is the exception to the rule. Yankees fans said the same thing about Eduardo Nunez, and now he has a -15 UZR in the major leagues.

 

What about Vizquel? Or Iglesias? Point blank - Fielding % is a very poor stat at determining defensive ability.

 

And you absolutely trade your starting SS if someone in AA as highly touted and as talented as Bogaerts is ready. That doesn't make sense. You save money and you develop your prospect.

[mvp 78]

Which part? Pawtucket int he coming days or Boston by August? There has actually been a lot of speculation about him going to Pawtucket int he coming days because of the SS hole voided by Iglesias.

 

The Boston part. He should be promoted to Pawtucket. Let's see how he handles it.

[Standing Room]

What about Vizquel? Or Iglesias? Point blank - Fielding % is a very poor stat at determining defensive ability.

 

And you absolutely trade your starting SS if someone in AA as highly touted and as talented as Bogaerts is ready. That doesn't make sense. You save money and you develop your prospect.

 

I realize FPCT is a flawed stat, but do you have any better objective measure of his defensive ability? Iglesias and Viquel aren't comparable, they were known for great range and Bogaerts is not. They're also the same exception to the rule players that people bring up as if it proves anything.

 

No, you're still wrong about trading Drew. If we trade Drew at the trade deadline, it saves us $3 million. You really think it's worth $3 million to roll the dice on someone who's completely unproven at the major league level? We're nowhere near the luxury tax threshold, it's not like money is an issue. And what do you expect Drew to get us in return? A bench guy, maybe a middle reliever?

[jung]

I don't want to put words in anyone's mouth but I for one would be "surprised" if XB was the starting SS in August. Maybe that is part of the argument you are facing from others SFF. Regardless of what XB does in AAA, a place he will surely be this year, why would you risk turning what is currently a team asset, skill and resources at the SS position into a potential weakness? The Sox will want to bring XB to MLB under circumstances other than having to depend on him to succeed when he has never spent any real time in an MLB uni before.

 

If the Sox season falls apart and there is no longer any consideration for making the post season, then I would think it more of a possibility. If that does not happen though, and the Sox are competing, the FO will be absolutely run out of town on a rail if they take a situation that does not appear to require any manipulation and start manipulating it only to find that XB struggles at the MLB level with practical consequences for him and for the team's 2013 run and no good answers to that sort of situation. Look I am not going to forget the things I posted earlier this year. I am surprised for one thing that so many of the pitching question marks ended up with a check mark in the plus column. So I am surprised that they are here mainly on that score. However now that they are here, and certainly if they are still here by the time frame you are discussing, I expect them to act like it.

[Standing Room]

I would be pretty surprised if Bogaerts is promoted before the Eastern League All-Star game on July 10th. Usually there's a bunch of promotions after the All-Star game.

[Dojji]

Machado had no one in front of him. Ellsbury had Coco Crap in front of him (who had an ops .040 less than Drew does and was having his worse pro season). The need for Xander to come up just isn't really there right now.

 

 

Holy revisionist history batman. Coco Crap? Crisp was a 3+ WAR player in 2007 and a HUGE reason why the team was as good as it was. He provided more WAR than Manny that year!

 

It was another story in 2008, but Ellsbury didn't debut in 2008, so if you're going to maintain this narrative when Crisp was just this vagrant suckbag begging to be replaced, you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

Ellsbury was called up to play a temporary role to replace DREW, not Crisp. Drew was out with one of his borderline injuries at the time and they needed an outfielder in the wake of the Murphy trade. Crisp had had a fine season in 07 when Ells first got the call, mostly spearheaded by his fantastic defense.

 

Ellsbury then procdeded to make himself impossible to send down, and Crisp proceded to still largely win the battle for the starting CF role throughout the season on his very strong D. Ellsbury found himself slotted into the CF and other OF positions as the team needed him. In fact he played significantly more time in left field (33 games) and right field (22 games) than in center (16 games, only 12 starting). The man was our 4th outfielder effectively for most of the second half after Wily Mo flamed out and Murphy was traded.

 

He was technically the 4th OF in the postseason but played a bigger role in the World Series after (IIRC) Crisp banged himself up against the wall on the last play of Game 7 of the ALCS.

 

It was only when Crisp left in the 2008-2009 offseason that Ellsbury became the real fulltime starting CF -- Cameron notwithstanding.

 

As for a need for Bogaerts -- perhaps you missed it, but Bogaerts has some experience at third base including playing there in the WBC this year. He's got more than enough natural talent for 3B and a number of scouts say that's where he's going to wind up anyway. And we have a bit of a hole there just now, so there is some serendipity to speculate about a potential callup here. It's by no means a slam dunk but don't pooh-pooh the idea entirely.

[jung]

As for a need for Bogaerts -- perhaps you missed it, but Bogaerts has some experience at third base including playing there in the WBC this year. He's got more than enough natural talent for 3B and a number of scouts say that's where he's going to wind up anyway. And we have a bit of a hole there just now, so there is some serendipity to speculate about a potential callup here. It's by no means a slam dunk but don't pooh-pooh the idea entirely.

 

But the premise for this discussion so far is not " the Sox are out of players at some point later this year". Correct me if I am wrong but the premise for this discussion at this point has been, "XB makes enough progress at SS at AA and AAA to make Drew expendable" as we get closer and closer to the 2013 deadline.

 

Maybe WMB does not come back but that is a completely different discussion than the discussion that has been going on for two pages now.

[Dojji]

Ellsbury started in left and right field. Did that stop him from being effective in center?

 

Bogaerts coming up and playing mostly 3B won't hurt his chances to stick at short next year as long as he hits and doesn't do anything to put his athleticism in quesiton. People need to be a bit more mentally flexible about "one player one position" and nonsense like that.

 

As for Drew, I've been modestly impressed. The man has done his job for the most part. I have no problem with the level of offense he's provided, it compares very nicely with anything we've gotten out of the shortstop position for years now, and his defense has been very acceptable. I wouldn't mind seeing him back if his price is reasonable. If not, Iglesias and Bogaerts are right there, but I wouldn't just toss Drew aside. He's a very good, talented shortstop and I'm glad we have him.

[mvp 78]

Somehow, I think Papi's 6.4 WAR and Lowell's 5.0 WAR were more important than Coco's to the 07 team. Sure, Coco had a good defensive season (where 1.8 of his WAR comes from), but he was terrible with the bat. I don't know why Manny's poor season reflects well on Coco. Coco was entirely expendable towards the end of 07.

[SoxFanForsyth]

But the premise for this discussion so far is not " the Sox are out of players at some point later this year". Correct me if I am wrong but the premise for this discussion at this point has been, "XB makes enough progress at SS at AA and AAA to make Drew expendable" as we get closer and closer to the 2013 deadline.

 

Maybe WMB does not come back but that is a completely different discussion than the discussion that has been going on for two pages now.

 

You are correct. And I will stand by my opinion that I think Bogaerts will make do well enough over the next 2 months that Drew gets traded.

 

Iglesias will likely be the SS initially, but Bogaerts will be up by mid August. That's now a prediction.

[User Name]

Dojji, you really need to stay within the confines of the discussion. That post is all over the place and did little to prove the viability of your position

[Dojji]

Somehow, I think Papi's 6.4 WAR and Lowell's 5.0 WAR were more important than Coco's to the 07 team. Sure, Coco had a good defensive season (where 1.8 of his WAR comes from), but he was terrible with the bat. I don't know why Manny's poor season reflects well on Coco. Coco was entirely expendable towards the end of 07.

 

 

Nonsense. Papi and Lowell played their roles and I won't take a thing away from them but a 3 WAR player is a 3 WAR player -- well above average and completely undeserving of derogatory nicknames.

 

Any effort to separate offensive WAR from defensive WAR is an exercise in cherry picking. It's all wins above replacement. The only form of value is not offensive value and attempting to denigrate Crisp's bat in 2007 is an exercise in massively missing the point. You seem to be trying to claim that only offense matters in an up the middle position and you know as well as I do how shortsighted that discussion is. Coco had his career year in 2007, easily, and that's simply a fact.

 

And it doesn't change the fact in the slightest that Ellsbury was by no means brought up to replace Crisp in any way, shape or form. Centerfield was the position of the three outfield positions that Ellsbury played the least -- because no one who wasn't blind, stupid, or grinding an axe would fail to admit that Coco did his job for at least that one year.

 

He was brought up to replace a short term Drew injury and then a longer term Manny injury, and he just kept sticking around after that because he was hitting. That's it.

[Behindenemylines]

All of the youthful talent means that the Sox will be competitive moving forward the next few years. If you that much youth you can some of those pieces to get parts that you don't have. Plus it is not as expensive. The Sox can win long term by using players from their system.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier: Xander Bogaerts is being promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket today. That leads the Red Sox minor lg roundup http://t.co/1WsiPOCdA2 via @WEEI

[SoxFanForsyth]

@alexspeier: Xander Bogaerts is being promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket today. That leads the Red Sox minor lg roundup http://t.co/1WsiPOCdA2 via @WEEI

 

This is incredibly exciting.

 

Once a prospect like Bogaerts gets to AAA, you can almost taste his MLB debut. May have to make a trip down to Pawtucket to watch a RDLR game with Bogaerts at SS.

 

Again, wouldn't shock me if Drew becomes expendable if Bogaerts is hitting .305/.400/.515 or something of the like in AAA come late July.

[Standing Room]

Bogaerts is a lot more athletic than I think a lot of people give him credit for. He lead the Eastern League in triples (6) and was five-for-six in stolen base attempts.

[mvp 78]

This is incredibly exciting.

 

Once a prospect like Bogaerts gets to AAA, you can almost taste his MLB debut. May have to make a trip down to Pawtucket to watch a RDLR game with Bogaerts at SS.

 

Again, wouldn't shock me if Drew becomes expendable if Bogaerts is hitting .305/.400/.515 or something of the like in AAA come late July.

 

Going to wait to see if I'll be given tickets for Father's Day. Otherwise, I'll probably try to go to one of the Saturday evening games. The Sunday games are right during mvp jr's naptime.

[Behindenemylines]

The Sox signings this off season has set the Sox up to start transitioning some of their young guns to the big leagues. Whether it is later this summer or next season you will see Bogaerts, Bradley (again) and some of their young pitchers.

[Orange Juiced]

Yeah, I'm pumped about Bogaerts to AAA. Kid is just 20 years old. Phenomenal talent. And it sounds like they'll be playing him all over the infield. When the September callups hit, I want this kid in Fenway.

 

(though I don't know if that starts his service time clock...not sure how that works)