Shoring Up the Rotation

[rjortiz]

The more good prospects they want the more money they will have to kick in. I think they could get a decent (not a top prospect) and get full salary relief.

 

So for Boston to get him, assuming they pay all of Lee's salary, what level prospect do you think would get the trade done?

 

The established price for a rent-a-star is usually a top prospect, and a few fillers. I wonder much impact Lee's contract has on his trade value.

 

Would you give up Webster for him?

[Standing Room]

The established price for a rent-a-star is usually a top prospect, and a few fillers. I wonder much impact Lee's contract has on his trade value.

 

Would you give up Webster for him?

 

In a vacuum, I would give up Webster and filler for Lee. I don't think it makes sense for us right now though.

 

If Buchholz and Lackey keep pitching well, there's no way I'd give up a top prospect for a #2 or #3 starter in the playoffs who is going to make $25+ million a year through their age 37 season. He's going to demand we pick up his 2016 option if he's going to waive his no-trade agreement. That probably harms us in the future more than it helps us now.

[Orange Juiced]

The established price for a rent-a-star is usually a top prospect, and a few fillers. I wonder much impact Lee's contract has on his trade value.

 

Would you give up Webster for him?

 

Well, he's not just a "rent-a-star". He's under contract through 2016, I believe.

 

I don't know if I'd give up Webster for him. I like Webster a lot. But if, come trade deadline, the Sox really look like they are going to be a legitimate player, then yeah, I'd definitely consider it. I mean, a rotation of Lee (unquestionable ace), Buchholz, Lester, and, say, Lackey (who seems like a new man after his surgery) is extremely formidable.

[a700hitter]

Well, he's not just a "rent-a-star". He's under contract through 2016, I believe.

 

I don't know if I'd give up Webster for him. I like Webster a lot. But if, come trade deadline, the Sox really look like they are going to be a legitimate player, then yeah, I'd definitely consider it. I mean, a rotation of Lee (unquestionable ace), Buchholz, Lester, and, say, Lackey (who seems like a new man after his surgery) is extremely formidable.

I'd offer anyone except Bogaerts.

[Standing Room]

Well, he's not just a "rent-a-star". He's under contract through 2016, I believe.

 

I don't know if I'd give up Webster for him. I like Webster a lot. But if, come trade deadline, the Sox really look like they are going to be a legitimate player, then yeah, I'd definitely consider it. I mean, a rotation of Lee (unquestionable ace), Buchholz, Lester, and, say, Lackey (who seems like a new man after his surgery) is extremely formidable.

 

Will Lee still look like an unquestionable ace in July though? His 3.36 xFIP suggests he's been lucky and might pitch more like a #2 the rest of the season. We already have two starters who have better peripherals than him.

[Orange Juiced]

In a vacuum, I would give up Webster and filler for Lee. I don't think it makes sense for us right now though.

 

If Buchholz and Lackey keep pitching well, there's no way I'd give up a top prospect for a #2 or #3 starter in the playoffs who is going to make $25+ million a year through their age 37 season. He's going to demand we pick up his 2016 option if he's going to waive his no-trade agreement. That probably harms us in the future more than it helps us now.

 

I get your logic, but Lee isn't a #2 or #3 starter. He's a bona fide ace. I mean, he's having a tremendous season now, but since 2008 his numbers are:

 

78-44, 2.86 era, 144 era+, 1.09 whip, 7.9 k/9

 

Average game looks like this:

 

7 1/3 innings, a little over 7 base runners, 2 er, more than 6 k's

 

That's tremendous.

[Orange Juiced]

Will Lee still look like an unquestionable ace in July though? His 3.36 xFIP suggests he's been lucky and might pitch more like a #2 the rest of the season. We already have two starters who have better peripherals than him.

 

If the past is any way to gauge things, then yes, he will be. Go here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=leecl02&year=Career&t=p#month_extra) and look at his performance in Sept/Oct. He's a stud late in the season.

[Standing Room]

If the past is any way to gauge things, then yes, he will be. Go here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=leecl02&year=Career&t=p#month_extra) and look at his performance in Sept/Oct. He's a stud late in the season.

 

There's no significant difference between his first half and second half numbers, if anything his second half numbers are worse. And this probably isn't a guy we can judge by his past considering his velocity has fallen off a cliff.

[Standing Room]

I get your logic, but Lee isn't a #2 or #3 starter. He's a bona fide ace. I mean, he's having a tremendous season now, but since 2008 his numbers are:

 

78-44, 2.86 era, 144 era+, 1.09 whip, 7.9 k/9

 

Average game looks like this:

 

7 1/3 innings, a little over 7 base runners, 2 er, more than 6 k's

 

That's tremendous.

 

He's lost 4.8 mph on his fastball this year alone and his peripherals suggest he hasn't pitched like an ace this year. What's he going to look like at age 37 when he's making $27+ million a year?

[Orange Juiced]

He's lost 4.8 mph on his fastball this year alone and his peripherals suggest he hasn't pitched like an ace this year. What's he going to look like at age 37 when he's making $27+ million a year?

 

Not nearly as good as he is now, I wouldn't imagine. It clearly would be a "go for it now" kind of move for sure.

 

But his Sept/Oct numbers are tremendous. I'm surprised you aren't bullish on those.

[rjortiz]

He's lost 4.8 mph on his fastball this year alone and his peripherals suggest he hasn't pitched like an ace this year. What's he going to look like at age 37 when he's making $27+ million a year?

 

Where do you get the 4.8 mph drop? PitchF/x suggests that he's down from 0.9 on his two seamer, and 1.5 on his fastball.

[Standing Room]

Where do you get the 4.8 mph drop? PitchF/x suggests that he's down from 0.9 on his two seamer, and 1.5 on his fastball.

 

My bad, I was looking at his cutter velocity this year. Still not crazy about the idea given his peripherals, the fact that we have multiple pitchers with better peripherals this year, and the fact that we'd be paying him $27+ million at age 37.

[rjortiz]

For the rest of the season, ZIPS projects Lee to produce a 3.4 WAR for the rest of the season, with an ERA of 3.07. Steamer projects him at 2.9 WAR, with a 3.28 ERA.

 

His HR/9 will certainly normalize, but he keeps runners off the bases, so I don't see that causing a dramatic spike in his ERA. He gives us top of the rotation production for the rest of the year.

[seabeachfred]

Well apparently you pissed Gomes off enough to have a monster night, so maybe your "wit" does have some use.

 

We need Gomes to get hot and stay consistent User. Batting in the second position he needs to hit and get walks and produce for the run producers. His strength is supposed to be hitting left handers and a high OBP. We've got nothing even remotely resembling that this season. Possibly his breakout game yesterday is his Red Sox coming out party. We'll see.

[seabeachfred]

Fred, do you follow the Red Sox minor league system? I'm going to assume you don't.

 

Sorry, you assume wrong. How about Murphy, Fuentes, Ellsbury, Reddick, Kalish, Hazelbaker for a start. I wish I had the Red Sox yearbook with me because they've had even more than that. Who was the last good RH hitter we drafted for the outfield? Brentz? Are there more? Were there more? No, User, I follow the Red Sox minor league system, and you notice I didn't even mention first basemen......like Anderson and Rizzo.

 

We need a couple of horses from the right hand side and pretty soon. It is ridiculous for a team that plays half its games at Fenway Park is so devoid of right handed power hitters.

[seabeachfred]

I'll ask again, which member of our rotation needs "shoring up"? Jon Lester has the worst peripherals on the staff, are we sending him to the bullpen?

 

You have a right to get an answer from someone so I'll throw my hat in the ring. Lester was once an ace-type pitcher, a lefthander with a big contract. Lackey has one too, and now Dempster falls in that category. They would have to really suck badly to be taken out of the rotation even though Lester is now trying to return to his miserable 2012 ways. We can't do it to Buchholz because he is our new ace. That leaves Doubrant. That would go by the boards if he starts pitching top flight baseball as he will get the chance to do tomorrow against the Angels. Let's hope he makes that decision very difficult. To me, though, the one who isn't doing the job should be the one to go, but, then again, I'm not the one signing the pay checks and we all know that in most cases money triumphs talent or common sense.

[seabeachfred]

Well, he's not just a "rent-a-star". He's under contract through 2016, I believe.

 

I don't know if I'd give up Webster for him. I like Webster a lot. But if, come trade deadline, the Sox really look like they are going to be a legitimate player, then yeah, I'd definitely consider it. I mean, a rotation of Lee (unquestionable ace), Buchholz, Lester, and, say, Lackey (who seems like a new man after his surgery) is extremely formidable.

 

I think you hit the nail on the head OrJu ( I don't want to call you OJ for obvious reasons). IF WE LOOK TO BE A LEGITIMATE CONTENDER AT THE TRADE DEADLINE. Right now I don't have a clue on that. My heart say one thing, remembering 2004. My head says something else, remembering 2012. Cherington should keep his ear to the ground and see what is developing and formulating a plan in case we do make a bid. If we a Sept. 2011 and fall in the tank, the answer would obviously be no.

[Standing Room]

You have a right to get an answer from someone so I'll throw my hat in the ring. Lester was once an ace-type pitcher, a lefthander with a big contract. Lackey has one too, and now Dempster falls in that category. They would have to really suck badly to be taken out of the rotation even though Lester is now trying to return to his miserable 2012 ways. We can't do it to Buchholz because he is our new ace. That leaves Doubrant. That would go by the boards if he starts pitching top flight baseball as he will get the chance to do tomorrow against the Angels. Let's hope he makes that decision very difficult. To me, though, the one who isn't doing the job should be the one to go, but, then again, I'm not the one signing the pay checks and we all know that in most cases money triumphs talent or common sense.

 

I think most people would probably agree with you and say Doubront, but he's pitched pretty well lately. He's had two starts all year where he allowed more than three earned runs. It looks like he's just starting to get his velocity back, and his peripherals look even better than they did last year. He's 25 years old, he's striking out more than a hitter per inning and he has an xFIP of 3.65. This is a guy who could be on the verge of becoming the type of top of the rotation starter that some fans want us to trade for. And he wouldn't cost any prospects, he's already here.

 

I think this is a case of fans wanting a shiny new pitcher with a big name.

[Palodios]

He's had two starts all year where he allowed more than three earned runs. I

 

One actually. He had a bad game against Texas, and the other game was in garbage time innings against Minnesota after Webster gave up 8 runs.

 

So let me say this again -- Doubront has had exactly one start where he's allowed more than 3 ER.

 

Crazy.

[RedSoxNC84]

Doubront has been serviceable most times, it would be great if he could go more than 5 innings and give up 3 or fewer.. He'd be a much better piece in the rotation then.

[User Name]

Sorry, you assume wrong. How about Murphy, Fuentes, Ellsbury, Reddick, Kalish, Hazelbaker for a start. I wish I had the Red Sox yearbook with me because they've had even more than that. Who was the last good RH hitter we drafted for the outfield? Brentz? Are there more? Were there more? No, User, I follow the Red Sox minor league system, and you notice I didn't even mention first basemen......like Anderson and Rizzo.

 

We need a couple of horses from the right hand side and pretty soon. It is ridiculous for a team that plays half its games at Fenway Park is so devoid of right handed power hitters.

 

But here's my question: You initially talked about RH power, which the Sox have a bunch of prospects (highlighted by Bogaerts) with very good to great power projection from the right side. If you're talking 1B though, you'd be right, but that wasn't what your post said. And if that is what you're saying, then you'd be wrong. The Sox could use a couple righty power hitters, but nothing is as important as pitching. You can easily buy a RH power hitter on the market, but getting affordable quality pitching has become almost impossible.

[User Name]

Doubront has been serviceable most times, it would be great if he could go more than 5 innings and give up 3 or fewer.. He'd be a much better piece in the rotation then.

 

This. If Doubront pitched more IP/start, his general numbers would look a lot better.

[mvp 78]

Sorry, you assume wrong. How about Murphy, Fuentes, Ellsbury, Reddick, Kalish, Hazelbaker for a start. I wish I had the Red Sox yearbook with me because they've had even more than that. Who was the last good RH hitter we drafted for the outfield? Brentz? Are there more? Were there more? No, User, I follow the Red Sox minor league system, and you notice I didn't even mention first basemen......like Anderson and Rizzo.

 

We need a couple of horses from the right hand side and pretty soon. It is ridiculous for a team that plays half its games at Fenway Park is so devoid of right handed power hitters.

 

Um, isn't Fred forgetting about his binky Lavarnway. I was told he was the real deal and to be excited because he hit 2 hr's.

[Dojji]

Our next 1B may very well be Michael Almanzar.

 

He's finally got his bat going as a 1B/3B in Portland.

[Palodios]

Our next 1B may very well be Michael Almanzar.

 

He's finally got his bat going as a 1B/3B in Portland.

 

Where did this guy come from? He suddenly has been crushing the ball in the upper minors. I've never seen Soxprospects be so incredibly negative about a player -- their excerpt is brutal

 

Repeats his mistakes and has questionable work ethic. High power potential, but has not made strides cleaning up his swing mechanics and reverts to old habits. Hits mostly with his arms and out on his front foot. Pure guess hitter with little idea of the strike zone. Tends to open his hips early. Has ability to make offensive strides with dedication. Plus arm, but below-average accuracy. Charges balls well at third base. New to playing first base, he shows a lack of comfort with the position.

[jung]

I don't know that there is much sense to worrying about Felix at this point. It looked like he might head for a really tough stretch but that did not happen. So he seems to be a serviceable 5 at this point. Long term, I don't think Felix has the upside we had hoped for. He has shown up twice for spring out of shape and that does not sound like the kind of guy that will put the sweat equity into his game to improve. But he is this year's 5. His pitch count is what it is. He does not get outta' the 6th inning. Big deal. Do you ever get to your 5 in the post season if you get there? Does anybody get more than 5-6 innings out of their 5 in the regular season? All the things that are wrong with Felix become non-factors once you stop hoping he will be more than he is.

[a700hitter]

Doubs needs to stay healthy and strong and not crap out like last year in the second half.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Where did this guy come from? He suddenly has been crushing the ball in the upper minors. I've never seen Soxprospects be so incredibly negative about a player -- their excerpt is brutal

 

In all fairness I don't think they have updated his description. That was his scouting report when they barely had him a top 50 prospect in the system. They've bumped him all the way up to #16 so I'd imagine that it would be different now.

[User Name]

Almanzar's power is prodigious, and his work ethic, pitch recognition and general plate discipline have vastly improved.

 

He, along with Bogaerts, Brentz, Lavarnway (who still features big power for a C) and Brandon Jacobs are all guys who either have plus power project as plus power right handed hitters in the Sox system.

[rjortiz]

If lee goes anywhere, I think he will go to Texas. The Rangers have show a proclivity for some in season splashy moves, and I don't see Lee waiving his limited no-trade clause to come to Boston without a sizable extension.

 

I think the Rangers need a bat more than they need Cliff Lee.