2013 Spring Training

[SoxFanForsyth]

Intresting as many of you pegged this team for a WS in 2011. Throw in a volatile manager and you just wanted to blow it up? Funny as that wasn't the argument you were making back then. I guess just formulate arguments to pump up whatever the 40 man roster looks like at any given time? Now who's the one just making noise?

 

If Rubby and Webster flame out and the Sox spend the $ frivolously, then you simply can't call the trade a win for the Sox.

 

Yeah, we pegged them to do well, then what happened? They absolutely sucked. They played like dog s***. There was no team chemistry.

 

It wasn't working. Even I admitted that in August. And that's when we blew it up. Hell. Why stop at last February? If you're going to make a dumb argument, why not go all the way back to August of 2011 when they were the best team in baseball?

 

A massive collapse and a s***** season later, and the writing was on the wall. The team wasn't working. It was 25 guys pulling in 25 different directions.

 

So the Sox dumped the salaries, got two major prospects back, and started the process over. It was an excellent, excellent trade.

 

How Cherrington spends the money won't be a reflection of the trade, it will be a reflection of him as a GM. The trade was monumental. Now it's on him to turn the team around. But if the team doesn't turn around, it was still an excellent trade, but Ben would just be considered a bad GM.

[Bellhorn04]

Intresting as many of you pegged this team for a WS in 2011. Throw in a volatile manager and you just wanted to blow it up? Funny as that wasn't the argument you were making back then. I guess just formulate arguments to pump up whatever the 40 man roster looks like at any given time? Now who's the one just making noise?

 

If Rubby and Webster flame out and the Sox spend the $ frivolously, then you simply can't call the trade a win for the Sox.

 

You're right, none of the potential benefits of the trade have been realized yet. Nothing is proven until a lot of games have been played.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The trade and the post trade success are very much independent of each other.

 

The Sox cleared 260 million dollars of bad contracts, outside of Gonzalez. The team was not winning and was not going to win with the team as constructed, and they were strangled with financial inflexibility and no upper minor pitching. The deal alleviated them from the inflexibility related to guys who were simply not performing in this environment. The deal was a brilliant deal.

 

The capitalization of the freed up money is a completely different story. The deal is already an elite deal for the Sox. The next step is to see how they perform with these newfound resources.

[a700hitter]

Johnny Damon is offering to take the league minimum to play for the Yankees while Grandy is out. It could be worth us taking a flier on him at the minimum. There would be nothing to lose. At the least, he would bring back memories of the good ole days.

[a700hitter]

If either Webster or De La Rosa turns out to be a good major league starter, it will be a good trade for us. If not, it was just a salary dump that shouldn't even be discussed as a trade. The salary dump provided a tremendous opportunity for Cherries to rebuild the roster. Thus far, he has spent $170 million for 2013 building a roster that is likely to finish 4th or last. I am not seeing the wisdom of his plan.

[BSN07]

The trade and what they do with the money are separate from from each other. The trade was a excellent and smart baseball move. What they do with the flexibility gained in the trade will not make the trade better or worse.

[a700hitter]

It's ridiculous to evaluate a transaction as a trade if you get no talent in return. If these guys are busts, it really just was a sale of players by the Sox. It's hard to evaluate a sale as a trade.

[SoxSport]

If either Webster or De La Rosa turns out to be a good major league starter, it will be a good trade for us. If not, it was just a salary dump that shouldn't even be discussed as a trade. The salary dump provided a tremendous opportunity for Cherries to rebuild the roster. Thus far, he has spent $170 million for 2013 building a roster that is likely to finish 4th or last. I am not seeing the wisdom of his plan.

 

They were not willing to risk the prospects this year--they needed a quick return to respectability--to sell tickets.

 

If they didn't spend the money, how could they justify not lowering ticket prices?

 

Whatever they do, they always seem to have too many FAs or downside vets--blocking prospects. Youks doesn't get hurt last year, MBrooks stays in AAA for the year.

 

The FO has slipped a lot in recent years--not much new blood or ideas there.

[a700hitter]

They were not willing to risk the prospects this year--they needed a quick return to respectability--to sell tickets.

 

If they didn't spend the money, how could they justify not lowering ticket prices?

 

Whatever they do, they always seem to have too many FAs or downside vets--blocking prospects. Youks doesn't get hurt last year, MBrooks stays in AAA for the year.

 

The FO has slipped a lot in recent years--not much new blood or ideas there.

The money they invested in the players they acquired is not selling tickets and I don't think it gets them back to respectability. Tickets are no moving. The latest marketing gimmick is to pair up a Yankee game with a crappy weekday game in April and May in a desperate attempt to sell tickets. This is a technique that the Rays used when they were awful and the O's did it prior to last season.

 

Edit: I think the money spent this year will prove to be money misspent.

[jung]

I have said that for over a year now. The Sox have engaged in volume Marketing but the quality is actually pretty low. So that completes the picture. The last thing that people credited them for, calling their Marketing an asset is s*** along with everything else.

 

Actually, I think the whole thing is pretty pitiful. This "like us cuze' we are goofy" thing is wearing thin pretty quickly, at least in my case. Combine that with the silly commercials featuring Farrell of all people and you begin to wonder if the brain trust has any brains left (too much heat getting through those stupid looking straw hats JH?).

 

As anybody will tell ya', once folks start to pull funds away from you as a supplier of anything entertainment, it is very difficult to get those dollars back again. They are allocated elsewhere and at that point you are lucky to gain back even a portion of them. Just ask the Orioles who waited all year for the attendance to match the performance. It never did cause the fan base did not expect it and had already spent the money elsewhere.

 

If the Fenway Brick fiasco is any indication, there will be a silver lining however. We will likely be able to see MLB in Boston for less money than we have seen in a looooooong looooooong time.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Oddly enough, after my post about Jackie Bradley, the media asked Farrell about him and he wouldn't rule out Bradley breaking camp with the Sox.

 

I would be 100% all for him being our LF. But my original post on here got a bit overlooked because of the trade talk.

 

Thoughts on Bradley starting the year in Boston? As a reminder, he hit .315/.430/.482 last year between A and AA. In 61 AA games, he hit .271/.373/.437.

 

Bill James actually projected him to hit .260/.350/.420 with 13 HR, 20 SB. If you could give me that line and give him experience so that next year when he replaces Ellsbury, he's not shell shocked by the MLB experience, I'd make him my starting LF/RF vs RHP all day every day.

[Palodios]

I'd rather see more Bradley in 2019 than 2013. I think it makes sense to give him more time in AA/AAA before promoting him-- that's a move that could definitely backfire.

[Bellhorn04]

I have said that for over a year now. The Sox have engaged in volume Marketing but the quality is actually pretty low. So that completes the picture. The last thing that people credited them for, calling their Marketing an asset is s*** along with everything else.

 

Actually, I think the whole thing is pretty pitiful. This "like us cuze' we are goofy" thing is wearing thin pretty quickly, at least in my case. Combine that with the silly commercials featuring Farrell of all people and you begin to wonder if the brain trust has any brains left (too much heat getting through those stupid looking straw hats JH?).

 

As anybody will tell ya', once folks start to pull funds away from you as a supplier of anything entertainment, it is very difficult to get those dollars back again. They are allocated elsewhere and at that point you are lucky to gain back even a portion of them. Just ask the Orioles who waited all year for the attendance to match the performance. It never did cause the fan base did not expect it and had already spent the money elsewhere.

 

Not sure you can make a valid comparison between Orioles fans and Sox fans.

 

I think 2013 Sox attendance will depend a lot on onfield results.

 

For the first time in a long time, Sox fans are going into a season very unsure if they have a team that has a sniff of the playoffs.

[rhet]

A .360-.370 OBP would be a huge lift to this lineup. Certainly better than Gomes trying to hit righties.

[jung]

There is not much to JBJ at this point. Heck if he ran into me he would be picking up body parts and headed to the trainers room for glue and clamps. I think I would prefer him to fill out a bit more before he is exposed to the rigors of a full MLB schedule. I don't think there is any chance of them waiting till 2019 but I don't see him up this year.

[BSN07]

There is not much to JBJ at this point. Heck if he ran into me he would be picking up body parts and headed to the trainers room for glue and clamps. I think I would prefer him to fill out a bit more before he is exposed to the rigors of a full MLB schedule. I don't think there is any chance of them waiting till 2019 but I don't see him up this year.

 

They wouldn't wait until 2019. By not bringing him to the majors this season it would delay his service clock. And because of that he would still be around in 2019 hypothetically instead of hitting the FA market.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I think Bradley could be a big addition this year, and could certainly help them make a playoff run by playing 120 games against LHP, not to mention if anyone goes down to injury.

 

I say let him play, if he is overpowered, send him back to AAA, but I'd much rather see him than Carp or Overbay.

 

Not to mention, if Ellsbury or Victorino ever need a day, your OF is going to have both Gomes AND Carp or Overbay in it. That's not appealing.

[jacksonianmarch]

There is zero chance Cherington allows Bradley's clock to start before June 1. Makes zero sense. If they wait 2 months to see if he destroys AAA, they'll gain an extra year of control

[jung]

I think 2013 Sox attendance will depend a lot on onfield results.

 

The gate in baseball really plays off season ticket sales and once the season starts, your opportunity to sell season passes or season ticket packages is basically out the window.

 

Once you get past season tickets you are left with advanced sales and combo packages. Finally you are left with something of a rarity around here, the walk up gate. If the season ticket sales are off, it does set something of a negative tone for the gate generally. It really is unrealistic to make up for flagging season ticket sales in advanced sales and packages and even less likely to make it up in the walk up gate.

 

I think 700 mentioned that ticket sales are off so far. If he means that the season ticket sales are off, that would be really concerning for the Sox Brass. Does not matter whether it is Boston or somewhere else. The gate all spins off the season tickets. If those are fine, the Sox ticket sales generally should not be a disappointment to them as long as the team does not go directly into the tank.

 

It does not take much to have an impact. If the Sox are off by 2,000 full season passes, that is over $5M in gate revenue right off the top. That says nothing for lost concessions revenue etc.

 

As for the rest, Advanced Sales and Advanced Sales/Combo packages, those would surely be tied in part to the performance of the team. But if it is the season passes that are off, the Sox would be starting in a hole each game.

 

I think LL's comment that the sell out string is going to die in early April is pretty telling. That says it is likely that the season pass sales are off. Other categories may be off as well but if LL thinks it is going to end in April, he probably knows something about the season pass sales that is not too appealing to him.

[jung]

They wouldn't wait until 2019. By not bringing him to the majors this season it would delay his service clock. And because of that he would still be around in 2019 hypothetically instead of hitting the FA market.

 

The issue of the service clock is not insignificant for any top prospect/rook. You have to feel really really good about your chances in a given season and the contribution the prospect/rook can make to give up a year of control like that. I don't see the Sox giving it up on JBJ either.

[Bellhorn04]

The gate in baseball really plays off season ticket sales and once the season starts, your opportunity to sell season passes or season ticket packages is basically out the window.

 

I thought there was a pretty big waiting list for season tickets.

[redsoxbeatz]

There is zero chance Cherington allows Bradley's clock to start before June 1. Makes zero sense. If they wait 2 months to see if he destroys AAA, they'll gain an extra year of control

 

this makes sense. would love to see JBJ sooner than later but extra 2 months is whatever.

[a700hitter]

I thought there was a pretty big waiting list for season tickets.

The Red Sox had to limit the number of season ticket holders several years ago. There has been long waiting list for season tickets and most people will hold onto them. Based on the current availability, it seems that the other tickets have not been selling very well.

[BSN07]

I agree with Jacko. I don't think he is in Boston before June unless there is a splurge of injuries in the OF.

[jung]

Buying season tickets now is all a matter of joining groups or buying into a group.

 

You can join a group that has some number of seats for all 81 games. You can join a group that has some number of seats for all of the night games. etc etc

 

I have not looked at the 81 game listings to see who is making those offerings. Although I guess I find it hard to imagine that a season ticket holder would be willing to give up his seat for every single game. So when I see an 81 game package offered it is hard to tell where that is coming from these days. They are there though. There are lots of season ticket groups with various numbers of tickets looking for partners. Ultimately I think the groupings is where much of the discounting takes place. The whole group thing makes it a bit more difficult to track ticket sales. Used to be much easier. However I am talking about the dark ages, when I was a season ticket holder.

 

In the old days you could literally pick a seat somehere from foul pole to foul pole and buy a season pass or some portion of one for that seat if it was available. Season seats for seats out in the bleachers came later as I recall. The only thing true then that is still true now is that the original ticket price does not change regardless of how many tickets you buy. So somebody buying an 81 game package pays 81 x face value of the ticket.

 

The whole group thing, combined with the relatively limited seating of Fenway Park has been a beautiful thing for the Sox. However it really does rely heavily on the demand for seats being really high. The whole idea that the Sox would build a new park with much more seating has always IMO been a pipe dream.

 

But, once the groups start getting pressured in that they cannot move seats without discounting them a great deal, the whole thing really can be difficult to maintain. If the groups and the agents have another year like they had last year, that is going to be tough. Some folks just could not move seats unless they almost gave them away.

 

In part, this is why I have wondered about the middle ground the Sox are seemingly aiming at this year. To some extent I think this is the point 700 might be making as well. Are the Sox doing enough to stem the tide and prevent what happened within the groups and the agents last year? It is not easy with their formula as it really does rely on demand staying very high to work. It is the only place in MLB where this formula is combined with face value ticket prices regardless of quantity.

[rjortiz]

When we trade Ellsbury in July, we'll see Bradley Jr. make an appearance.

[Bellhorn04]

When we trade Ellsbury in July, we'll see Bradley Jr. make an appearance.

 

Are you saying that because you think we'll be 'out of it' in July?

[a700hitter]

Are you saying that because you think we'll be 'out of it' in July?

The writing is already on the wall for the upcoming season. You can chose to not look at the wall, but that will not change what is already written there.

[Station 13]

So the red sox are playing a ST game that is nearly 4hour.

[Bellhorn04]

The writing is already on the wall for the upcoming season. You can chose to not look at the wall, but that will not change what is already written there.

 

Keep in mind though, that we weren't really out of it last year on July 31, even though we were floundering around the .500 mark. Not out of it enough to throw in the towel when you're the Red Sox.

 

A lot of that was because of the extra wild card.